The Dictatorship
What Trump’s tariffs mean for the price of your shirts
On Saturday, President Donald Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on three of our biggest trading partners: 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. The exact timeline for implementation is up in the air. But if — or when — they go into effect, what will that mean for you?
Given the amount of misinformation flying around, any article about tariffs should start with the basic facts of the case. Only then can we talk about what the Trump administration might be about to do in this space, perhaps as soon as this weekend, along with the economic and political implications.
The first person to pay the tax is not necessarily the last
Tariffs are a tax on imports (and if there’s any doubt whether tariffs are really taxes, note that Trump wants to change the nameof these import-tax collectors to the “External Revenue Service”). That tax is paid by the company importing the good when that good enters the country. So, when an American retailer imports shirts from China, under Trump’s tariffs that company pays a tax that could be as high as 35% when that container of shirts hits the U.S. port. The tariff is collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at over 300 ports of entry across the land.
What happens next is a matter of empirical economics. A fundamental concept in taxation — and tariffs, again, are a tax — is that the first person to pay the tax is not necessarily the last.
Let’s start by thinking through whocouldultimately pay the tax. That would be a) the importing company, b) the exporting company, c) the consumer who ultimately buys the shirt, which, due to the tariff, is now more expensive (a fourth channel can occur through exchange rates, wherein a stronger dollar can offset part of the tax, but this effect tends to be small).
So, who eats the tariff: the importer, the exporter, or…you (the consumer)? I’m sorry to report that the research suggests it’s you. Most of the tariff gets passed through into higher consumer prices. Perhaps the clearest example of this was when Trump imposed one of his first tariffs back in 2018 on imported washing machines. The price of both imported and domestic washing machines subsequently increased, by about $86 per unit according to one estimate. Even the price of dryers, which weren’t tariffed but are often sold with washers, also rose!
Trump claims that the exporter pays the tariff, by lowering the price they charge to the importer. But a moment’s thought shows this argument to be both empirically unfounded and, well, weird. The whole point of Trump’s tariffs is to rebuild domestic manufacturing by making imports more expensive. But if the exporter eats the cost, then the U.S. price doesn’t change, and MAGA’s mission is decidedlynotaccomplished!
At this point, you must be thinking, ‘Why would any country ever impose a tariff?’
How much might consumers get dinged by these tariffs? That depends on details that are still dribbling out (e.g., will Canadian oil exports be exempted?). A widely cited studyfrom the Peterson Institute predicts that Trump’s most sweeping plans would cost households an average of $2,600. My own estimate is that 25% tariffs on all imports out of Canada and Mexico and 10% on China would cost the average household $1,500-$2,000.
There’s yet another reason why tariffs won’t help American producers: about 45% of what we import are inputs, called “intermediate goods,” that go into American products. In Trump’s first term, for example, his administration introduced a tariff on imported aluminum, purportedly to protect U.S. aluminum producers. But the biggest U.S. producer of aluminum, Alcoa, which one might expect would be excited about the new policy, asked for (and received) an exemption from the tariff! It turns out that they import inputs from Canada.
The last reason Trumpian tariffs don’t work is because countries retaliate, raising their own tariff on their imports from the U.S. That’s one reason tariffs tend not to have much impact on the trade balance. They reduce both importsandexports.
At this point, you must be thinking, “why would any country ever impose a tariff?” In fact, narrowly targeted tariffs can be a fast and effective tool to block unfair trade in a particular product, especially when a trading partner is “dumping” a product (i.e., selling below cost to grab market share). We’ve successfully used these sorts of tariffs on everything from chicken parts to tires.
So, if I and every other economist, and now you, know all of this, what the heck is Trump and his team thinking?
That’s a trick question—who knows what these folks are thinking? But let’s just say, for the point of argument, that especially since Trump ran on lowering prices, making things more expensive isn’t really his top goal. And even if he doesn’t know or believe the price effects documented above, his economists do.
I strongly suspect that what’s probably going on here has a lot more to do with politics than economics.
One conclusion is that this is all theatre: threats to extract other goals from trading partners. We saw a microcosm of this last weekend in a dustup with Colombia. But in the cases of Canada and Mexico, this explanation is confusing, because it’s not clear what he’d wants from them. Yes, Trump claims he wants them to stop immigrant and fentanyl flows, but both countries have already successfully intervened to reduce these flows.
I strongly suspect that what’s probably going on here has a lot more to do with politics than economics. The president has an extremely acute radar for policies that resonate with his voters and he believes tariffs are one of those policies. He may be right: one studyof the trade war between U.S. and China during Trump’s first term concluded that people “more exposed to import tariffs became less likely to identify as Democrats, more likely to vote to reelect Donald Trump in 2020, and more likely to elect Republicans to Congress.”
On the other hand, the president may be underestimating the extent to which people have had more than enough of inflation. A new Quinnipiac pollfinds that more voters (48%) believe tariffs will hurt the economy, than the 42% that think they’ll help.
As is characteristic of this moment, we’re left with a lot of uncertainty about a presidential fixation that even he may know is a bad idea right now. We’ll soon know whether he’s willing to hit Americans with a painful tax increase, whether this is all just transactional Trumpian noise, or some combination of both.
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein was chair of President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers.
The Dictatorship
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is leaving Trump’s Cabinet
WASHINGTON (AP) — Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is out of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet, the White House said Monday, after multiple allegations of abusing her position’s power, including having an affair with a subordinate and drinking alcohol on the job.
Chavez-DeRemer is the third Trump Cabinet member to leave her post after Trump fired his embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in March and ousted Attorney General Pam Bondi earlier this month.
In a statement posted on social media, Chavez-DeRemer praised Trump and wrote, “I am proud that we made significant progress in advancing President Trump’s mission to bridge the gap between business and labor and always put the American worker first.”
Unlike other recent Cabinet departures, Chavez-DeRemer’s exit was announced by a White House aide, not by the president on his social media account.
“Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be leaving the Administration to take a position in the private sector,” White House communications director Steven Cheung said on the social media site X. “She has done a phenomenal job in her role by protecting American workers, enacting fair labor practices, and helping Americans gain additional skills to improve their lives.”
He said Keith Sonderling, the current deputy labor secretary, would become acting labor secretary in her place. The news outlet NOTUS was the first to report Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation.
Labor chief, family members faced multiple allegations
Chavez-DeRemer’s departure follows reports that began surfacing in January that she was under a series of investigations.
A New York Times report last Wednesday revealed that the Labor Department’s inspector general was reviewing material showing Chavez-DeRemer and her top aides and family members routinely sent personal messages and requests to young staff members.
Chavez-DeRemer’s husband and father exchanged text messages with young female staff members, according to the newspaper. Some of the staffers were instructed by the secretary and her former deputy chief of staff to “pay attention” to her family, people familiar with the investigation told the Times.
Those messages were uncovered as part of a broader investigation of Chavez-DeRemer’s leadership that began after the New York Post reported in January that a complaint filed with the Labor Department’s inspector general accused Chavez-DeRemer of a relationship with the subordinate.
She also faced allegations that she drank alcohol on the job and that she tasked aides to plan official trips for primarily personal reasons.
Late Monday, on her personal X account, Chavez-DeRemer posted, “The allegations against me, my family, and my team have been peddled by high-ranked deep state actors who have been coordinating with the one-sided news media and continue to undermine President Trump’s mission.”
Both the White House and the Labor Department initially said the reports of wrongdoing were baseless. But the official denials got less full-throated as more allegations emerged — and when Chavez-DeRemer might be out of a job became something of an open question in Washington.
At least four Labor Department officials have already been forced from their jobs as the investigation progressed, including Chavez-DeRemer’s former chief of staff and deputy chief of staff, as well as a member of her security detail, with whom she was accused of having the affair, The New York Times reported.
“I think the secretary demonstrated a lot of wisdom in resigning,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said Monday after her departure was made public.
She enjoyed union support — rare for a Republican
Confirmed to Trump’s Cabinet on a 67-32 vote in March 2025, Chavez-DeRemer is a former House GOP lawmaker who had represented a swing district in Oregon. She enjoyed unusual support from unions as a Republican but lost reelection in November 2024.
In her single term in Congress, Chavez-DeRemer backed legislation that would make it easier to unionize on a federal level, as well as a separate bill aimed at protecting Social Security benefits for public-sector employees.
Some prominent labor unions, including the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, backed Chavez-DeRemer, who is a daughter of a Teamster, for Labor Secretary. Trump’s decision to pick her was viewed by some political observers as a way to appeal to voters who are members of or affiliated with labor organizations.
But other powerful labor leaders were skeptical when she was tapped for the job, unconvinced that Chavez-DeRemer would pursue a union-friendly agenda as a part of the incoming GOP administration. In her Senate confirmation hearing, some senators questioned whether she would be able to uphold that reputation in an administration that fired thousands of federal employees.
She was a key figure in Trump’s deregulatory push
Aside from reports of wrongdoing in recent months, Chavez-DeRemer had been one of Trump’s more lower-profile Cabinet picks, but took key steps to advance the administration’s deregulatory agenda during her tenure.
For instance, the Labor Department last year moved to rewrite or repeal more than 60 workplace regulations it saw as obsolete. The rollbacks included minimum wage requirements for home health care workers and people with disabilities, and rules governing exposure to harmful substances and safety procedures at mines. The effort drew condemnation from union leaders and workplace safety experts.
The proposed changes also included eliminating a requirement that employers provide adequate lighting for construction sites and seat belts for agriculture workers in most employer-provided transportation.
During Chavez-DeRemer’s tenure, the Trump administration canceled millions of dollars in international grants that a Labor Department division administered to combat child labor and slave labor around the worldending their work that had helped reduce the number of child laborers worldwide by 78 million over the last two decades.
In her statement Monday, Chavez-DeRemer said, “While my time serving in the Administration comes to a conclusion, it doesn’t mean I will stop fighting for American workers.”
The Labor Department has a broad mandate as it relates to the U.S. workforce, including reporting the U.S. unemployment rate, regulating workplace health and safety standards, investigating minimum wage, child labor and overtime pay disputes, and applying laws on union organizing and unlawful terminations.
___
Associated Press writers Steven Sloan and Will Weissert in Washington and Cathy Bussewitz in New York contributed to this report.
The Dictatorship
The Latest: US Navy seizure of Iranian ship casts doubt on fresh talks in Pakistan
-
World
TOP STORIES
-
U.S.
TOP STORIES
-
Politics
SECTIONS
TOP STORIES
-
Sports
SECTIONS
TOP STORIES
-
Entertainment
SECTIONS
TOP STORIES
-
Oddities
TOP STORIES
- 1 million bees make for bumper-to-buzzer traffic on a Tennessee highway ramp
- Humanoid robots run a Chinese half-marathon alongside flesh-and-blood competitors
- Hot dogs and steaks and bacon, oh my! Meat raffles keep a beloved Midwest tradition alive
- Fatou, the world’s oldest gorilla living in captivity, celebrates her 69th birthday at Berlin Zoo
- Viral phenomenon in Argentina has young people identifying themselves as animals
- California homeowner rolls out ‘unwelcome’ mat for black bear living under his house
-
Photography
SECTIONS
TOP STORIES
-
Climate
TOP STORIES
-
Health
TOP STORIES
- Dr. Oz announces a 50-state audit of Medicaid program oversight
- What to know about psychedelic retreats, a booming business with few safety guardrails
- A small but growing movement wants you to put down your phone. But first read this
- Trump signs order to speed review of psychedelics, including the controversial drug ibogaine
- Easily distracted? How to improve your attention span
- Younger adult colon cancer deaths are concentrated in people with less education, study says
-
Tech
SECTIONS
-
Religion
TOP STORIES
-
MORE
The Dictatorship
GOP’s Mills faces expulsion effort launched by one of his Republican colleagues
Republican Rep. Cory Mills of Florida was already dealing with multiple, overlapping scandals when a judge issued a restraining order against the congressman last fall after one of his ex-girlfriends accused him of threatening and harassing her. Soon after, Mills found that even some of his allies were keeping him at arm’s length.
In December, Rep. Byron Donalds, a fellow Florida Republican, conceded“The allegations against Cory, to me, are very troubling. I’m concerned about him. I hope he gets his stuff worked out and cleaned up, but it has to go through ethics [the Ethics Committee]. And he has to, you know, basically do that hard work to clear his name, if it can be cleared.”
Donalds, a leading gubernatorial candidate in Florida, had previously suggested he saw Mills as a possible running mate, making the comments that much more potent.
It didn’t do Mills any favors when The Washington Post published a new report a few days ago highlighting body camera footage that showed police officers in Washington, D.C., who were prepared to arrest the GOP congressman after a woman accused him of assault last year, before a lieutenant ultimately ordered them not to when she changed her account. (Mills refused to comment, except to say that the woman’s initial claim was “patently false.”)
Two days after the Post’s report reached the public, one of Mills’ Republican colleagues announced an effort to kick the congressman out of office. NBC News reported:
Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., introduced a resolution Monday to expel Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., from Congress over accusations that include sexual misconduct.
Mills is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee in connection with allegations of ‘sexual misconduct and/or dating violence’ and campaign finance violations. He has denied any wrongdoing.
“The swamp has protected Cory Mills for far too long and we are done letting it slide,” Mace said in a statement. “We tried to censure him and strip him from his committee assignments. Both parties blocked it, but we are not backing down.”
By way of social media, the Floridian expressed confidence that he’d prevail if Mace’s resolution reached the floor, encouraging the South Carolinian to “call the vote forward.”
Time will tell whether the expulsion vote actually happens, but in the meantime, after NOTUS reported that Mills intends to respond with an expulsion resolution of his own targeting Mace, the congresswoman wrote online“Cory Mills lied about his military service, has been accused of beating women, has a restraining order against him, and has allegedly been stuffing his own pockets with federal contracts while sitting in Congress. As a survivor, I will always stand up and right the wrongs of others. He is only coming after me because he knows he’s next.”
It’s not often that Americans see members of Congress launch dueling efforts to kick each other out of office, but this is proving to be an unusually awful term.
Indeed, amid growing GOP anxieties about the upcoming midterm elections, there’s fresh evidence that the House Republican conference is both divided and unraveling.
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
-
Politics1 year agoFormer ‘Squad’ members launching ‘Bowman and Bush’ YouTube show
-
The Dictatorship1 year agoLuigi Mangione acknowledges public support in first official statement since arrest
-
Politics1 year agoFormer Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron launches Senate bid
-
The Dictatorship1 year agoPete Hegseth’s tenure at the Pentagon goes from bad to worse
-
Uncategorized1 year ago
Bob Good to step down as Freedom Caucus chair this week
-
Politics1 year agoBlue Light News’s Editorial Director Ryan Hutchins speaks at Blue Light News’s 2025 Governors Summit
-
The Dictatorship7 months agoMike Johnson sums up the GOP’s arrogant position on military occupation with two words
-
The Josh Fourrier Show1 year agoDOOMSDAY: Trump won, now what?





