The Dictatorship
The Strait of Hormuz is the U.S.’ problem now — whether Trump likes it or not
ByNicholas Grossman
President Donald Trump reportedly told aides he is willing to end the Iran war while Iran still controls of the Strait of Hormuzsaid a closed strait blocking energy shipments is other countries’ problem and told interviewers the strait will “automatically open” when the United States leaves, which will not be “too much longer” because “it’s a total obliteration.”
Stock markets leapt up on the news. But the strait is America’s problem, whether Trump wants it to be or not, and Iran gets a say in how this goes.
The oil and natural gas markets are global. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the Persian Gulf, Iran has blocked about 20% of the global supply, and all it needs to do to keep it blocked is make shipping and insurance companies too afraid to sail. Despite an extensive bombing campaign targeting Iran’s military capabilities and leadership, the U.S. and Israel have not been able to stop Iran from launching drones and missiles daily. On March 31, an Iranian drone hit a Kuwaiti tanker off the coast of Dubai. Besides a few exceptions Iran has granted, traffic through the strait has stopped.
Hormuz is America’s problem, whether Trump wants it to be or not, and Iran gets a say in how this goes.
An energy supply crunch is unavoidable, and the odds of one have grown worse every day. The price of oil is over 50% higher since before the war, and it could easily rise more. The U.S. drills more oil than it uses, but it both imports and exports petroleum products, and there is not a large spare capacity to quickly tap that could cover the global shortage. Most oil out of the gulf goes east to Asia, which has been hit harder more quickly, such as in rising airline costs. But no matter what Trump has said, the war has put upward pressure on prices in the U.S., most visibly for gasoline, but also for food and almost everything else.
This has put Iran in a strong strategic position, even as the U.S. and Israel have control of its skies, bombing targets at will. Iran has demanded U.S. forces leave the region and said it will impose tolls to cross the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps $2 million per ship, with all U.S. and Israeli vessels banned. And Iran’s foreign minister rebutted Trump’s claim of negotiationssaying talks have not taken place.
Iran might not want to end the war yet. It can’t trust Trump to honor any agreement, since in his first term he broke the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the “Iran nuclear deal”) without cause, and he started this war while U.S. and Iranian representatives were negotiating. Iran’s rulers can’t be confident that the U.S. and Israel won’t pocket any gains and attack again later. That gives Iran an incentive to impose sustained economic pain, establishing a deterrent the U.S. can’t shrug off.
Even if Trump ordered U.S. forces to cease fire tomorrow, Iran could continue blocking the strait, hurting the global economy and humiliating the U.S. while demanding war reparations. This is not like businesswhere he can declare bankruptcy and walk away.

Trump’s claims of an obliterated Iran eager to offer concessions is at best wishful thinking, and more likely a lie to get through a few news cycles and boost volatile markets. He has dropped talk of unconditional surrender, or even restricting Iran’s nuclear program, and would find it hard to spin quitting as anything but a humiliating strategic defeat. America’s Gulf Arab partners have urged Trump to escalateapparently recognizing that ending the war with Iran dominating the strait and charging tolls would be a serious loss.
Trump’s comments about ending the war without opening the strait could also be a bluff — a play for time while positioning forces for ground operations. The U.S. has deployed additional troops to the Middle Eastincluding a Marine Expeditionary Unit of about 4,500 plus 2,000 from the Army’s 82nd Airborne. That’s the sort of capacity to establish a beachhead, potentially on Kharg Islandfor a larger invasion to follow, not to take and hold territory.
Taking islands in the gulf or the coast around the strait won’t bring Iran to its knees any more than the bombing and assassinations have, nor fully prevent Iran’s ability to fire into the strait. If Trump ordered ground operations, it would add risk, and even assuming it went well, what then? Indefinite occupation of Iranian territory, taking fire, while economic disruptions deepen?
No matter how hard he wishes or how forcefully he lies, it looks like there’s no good way out.
Trump’s words about Hormuz sound like attempted negotiation. He has devalued the asset, acting like he does not really care about the strait, and Iran should not expect much for it. That’s unlikely to work, since Iran can see oil prices rising, U.S. gas prices rising with them and Trump’s approval dropping. In that light, he looks thirsty for a way out.
Trump’s rhetoric has also directed at NATO allies in Europewhom he has been berating to join the war. Now he has threatened to leave the alliance if they don’t, undermining the credibility of America’s commitment to NATO, which Trump already had on shaky ground, and with it all U.S. alliances. It also has undermined America’s negotiating position with Iran, indicating a desire to force the strait open, but disinclination to take on the costs alone.
Unsurprisingly, Trump has not gotten any NATO country to join in. It’s a defensive pact, where “an attack on one is an attack on all,” not a promise to help each other’s offensive adventures. Trump did not tell them about the attack on Iran, and later sneered that the U.S. did not need or even want their help. He and his administration have denigrated NATO alliesimposed tariffs on them, threatened to take territory from them and spoken more positively of their adversary Russia than their partner, Ukraine.
Thanks to Trump, leaders in U.S. treaty allies get more domestic political benefit from defying America than assisting. Spain and France have closed their airspace to U.S. aircraft headed for the Middle East, and other European countries may follow. It’s an extraordinary step, highlighting the damage this war has done to the Western alliance, and how much Trump has already done.
The Iran war is already looking like a world-shaping conflict. Trump has gotten America into a bad strategic position, and no matter how hard he wishes or how forcefully he lies, it looks like there’s no good way out.
Nicholas Grossman
Nicholas Grossman is a political science professor at the University of Illinois, editor of Arc Digital and the author of “Drones and Terrorism.”
The Dictatorship
Judge blocks Trump order to end funding for NPR and PBS
WASHINGTON (AP) — Citing the First Amendment, a federal judge on Tuesday agreed to permanently block the Trump administration from implementing a presidential directive to end federal funding for National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service, two media entities that the White House has said are counterproductive to American priorities.
The operational impact of U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss’ decision was not immediately clear — both because it will likely be appealed and because too much damage to the public-broadcasting system has already been done, both by the president and Congress.
Moss ruled that President Donald Trump’s executive order to cease funding for NPR and PBS is unlawful and unenforceable. The judge said the First Amendment right to free speech “does not tolerate viewpoint discrimination and retaliation of this type.”
“It is difficult to conceive of clearer evidence that a government action is targeted at viewpoints that the President does not like and seeks to squelch,” wrote Moss, who was nominated to the bench by President Barack Obama, a Democrat.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said Moss’ decision is “a ridiculous ruling by an activist judge attempting to undermine the law.”
“NPR and PBS have no right to receive taxpayer funds, and Congress already voted to defund them. The Trump Administration looks forward to ultimate victory on the issue,” Jackson said in a statement.
PBS, with programming ranging from “Sesame Street” and “Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood” to Ken Burns’ documentaries, has been operating for more than half a century. NPR has news programming from “All Things Considered” and cultural shows like the “Tiny Desk” concerts. For decades, the fates of both systems have been part of a philosophical debate over whether government should help fund their operations.
Punishment for ‘past speech’ cited in decision
The judge noted that Trump’s executive order simply directs that all federal agencies “cut off any and all funding” to NPR, which is based in Washington, and PBS, based in Arlington, Virginia.
“The Federal Defendants fail to cite a single case in which a court has ever upheld a statute or executive action that bars a particular person or entity from participating in any federally funded activity based on that person or entity’s past speech,” the judge wrote.
Last year, Trump, a Republican, said at a news conference he would “love to” defund NPR and PBS because he believes they’re biased in favor of Democrats.
“The message is clear: NPR and PBS need not apply for any federal benefit because the President disapproves of their ‘left wing’ coverage of the news,” Moss wrote.
NPR accused the Corporation for Public Broadcasting of violating its First Amendment free speech rights when it moved to cut off its access to grant money appropriated by Congress. NPR also claims Trump wants to punish it for the content of its journalism.
“Public media exists to serve the public interest — that of Americans — not that of any political agenda or elected official,” said Katherine Maher, NPR’s president and CEO. She called the decision a decisive affirmation of the rights of a free and independent press.
PBS chief Paula Kerger said she was thrilled with the decision. The executive order, she said, is “textbook” unconstitutional viewpoint discrimination and retaliation. “At PBS, we will continue to do what we’ve always done: serve our mission to educate and inspire all Americans as the nation’s most trusted media institution.”
Last August, CPB announced it would take steps toward closing itself down after being defunded by Congress.
A victory, though incremental, for press freedom
Plaintiffs’ attorney Theodore Boutrous said Tuesday’s ruling is “a victory for the First Amendment and for freedom of the press.”
“As the Court expressly recognized, the First Amendment draws a line, which the government may not cross, at efforts to use government power — including the power of the purse — ‘to punish or suppress disfavored expression’ by others,” Boutrous said in a statement. “The Executive Order crossed that line.”
The judge agreed with government attorneys that some of the news outlets’ legal claims are moot, partly because the CPB no longer exists.
“But that does not end the matter because the Executive Order sweeps beyond the CPB,” Moss added. “It also directs that all federal agencies refrain from funding NPR and PBS — regardless of the nature of the program or the merits of their applications or requests for funding.”
NPR and three public radio stations sued administration officials last May. While Trump was named as a defendant, the case did not include Congress — and the legislative body has played a large role in the public-broadcasting saga in the past year.
Trump’s executive order immediately cut millions of dollars in funding from the Education Department to PBS for its children’s programming, forcing the system to lay off one-third of the PBS Kids staff. The Trump order didn’t impact Congress’ vote to eliminate the overall federal appropriations for PBS and NPR, which forced the closure of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the entity that funneled that money to the TV and radio networks.
___
AP Media Writer David Bauder and AP writer Darlene Superville contributed to this report.
The Dictatorship
‘I don’t care about that’: Trump moves the goal posts on Iran’s uranium stockpile
More than a month into the war in Iran, there’s still great uncertainty about why the United States launched this military offensive in the first place. There’s reason to believe, however, that the conflict has something to do with Iran’s nuclear program.
At an unrelated White House event on Tuesday, for example, Donald Trump said“I had one goal: They will have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.”
It was a curious comment, in part because by the president’s own assessmentIran didn’t have a nuclear weapon before he decided to launch the war, and in part because Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week presented the administration’s four major objectives in the conflict, none of which had anything to do with Iran’s nuclear program.
As for whether Trump’s newly manufactured “goal” has actually been “attained,” The New York Times reported“Unless something changes over the next two weeks — the target Mr. Trump set to begin withdrawing from the conflict — he will have left the Iranians with 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for 10 to a dozen bombs. The country will retain control over an even larger inventory of medium-enriched uranium that, with further enrichment, could be turned into bomb fuel, if the Iranians can rebuild that capacity after a month of steady bombing.”
The American president has acknowledged that these details are true, though he apparently no longer cares. Ahead of an Oval Office address to the nation about the war in Iran, the Republican spoke to Reuters about his perspective:
Of the enriched uranium, Trump said: ‘That’s so far underground, I don’t care about that.’
‘We’ll always be watching it by satellite,’ he added. He said Iran was ‘incapable’ of developing a weapon now.
The president’s comments definitely have a practical element: It’s been an open question for weeks as to whether Trump intends to try to seize Iran’s uranium stockpile, which would require ground troops and be profoundly dangerous for U.S. military service members.
If Trump told Reuters the truth and is prepared to let Iran keep the uranium it already has because he no longer “cares about that,” it would drastically reduce the likelihood of a ground invasion — one that would almost certainly cost lives.
But there’s another element to this worth keeping in mind as the process moves forward: Ever since the Obama administration struck the original nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015, Trump has insisted that it was wrong to allow the country to hold onto nuclear materials that might someday be used in a nuclear weapon.
A decade later, he’s suddenly indifferent to Iran’s uranium stockpile — which has only grown larger since Trump abandoned the Obama-era policy.
Trump’s goalposts, in other words, are on the move.
Indeed, if the American president’s comments reflect his true perspective (and with this guy, one never really knows), we’re due for a serious public conversation about the motives and objectives for the war. Because as things stand, before the war, Iran had a regime run by radical religious clerics and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard; the country had a significant uranium stockpile; and the Strait of Hormuz was open.
And now, Trump’s apparent vision for a successful offensive will include Iran with a regime run by radical religious clerics and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard; the country still holding a significant uranium stockpile; and the Strait of Hormuz will be open.
Mission accomplished, I guess?
Steve Benen is a producer for “The Rachel Maddow Show,” the editor of MaddowBlog and an MS NOW political contributor. He’s also the bestselling author of “Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republicans’ War on the Recent Past.”
The Dictatorship
Mike Johnson caves to the Senate, paving the way for likely DHS shutdown deal
Just days after labeling the Senate deal to end the record-breaking shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security a “crap sandwich,” Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., now appears ready to swallow it whole.
Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., announced Wednesday they will move forward with the two-track approach senators unanimously backed last Friday. They will pass a bill to fund most of DHS — with the exception of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and parts of Customs and Border Patrol — and then look to approve money for ICE and CBP in a separate reconciliation package.
“In following this two-track approach, the Republican Congress will fully reopen the Department, make sure all federal workers are paid, and specifically fund immigration enforcement and border security for the next three years so that those law-enforcement activities can continue uninhibited,” Johnson and Thune said in a joint statement.

The announcement amounts to a stunning reversal for Johnson, who was facing pressure from conservatives to oppose the Senate deal. Their objections centered on the lack of money for ICE, as well as the Senate’s failure to include new voter ID restrictions, championed by President Donald Trump, with the so-called SAVE America Act.
Instead, Johnson on Friday forced a House vote on an alternative measure to fund all of DHS for eight weeks. While it passed almost entirely along party linesthe stopgap measure stood no chance in the Senate, where Democrats have repeatedly rejected a similar proposal in recent weeks.
Lawmakers were back to square one.
But it turns out, all they needed was a little push from Trump.
Less than three hours before Johnson and Thune’s announcement, Trump urged Republicans — in a lengthy statement on Truth Social — to pass funding for ICE and border patrol through budget reconciliation. While that approach allows GOP lawmakers to bypass Democratic opposition, it requires near-unanimous GOP support.
Trump said he wants the legislation on his desk by June 1 — an ambitious timeline that dramatically increased pressure on Republicans.
“We are going to work as fast, and as focused, as possible to replenish funding for our Border and ICE Agents, and the Radical Left Democrats won’t be able to stop us,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We will not allow them to hurt the families of these Great Patriots by defunding them. I am asking that the Bill be on my desk NO LATER than June 1st.”

With Johnson suddenly on board, lawmakers appear poised to end the DHS shutdown just as soon as the House can reconvene. It’s unclear exactly when that might happen. The House isn’t due back until April 14. But Johnson could always call lawmakers back sooner — or look to pass the Senate bill while both chambers are out on recess through a special process.
Because the House never technically sent its 60-day continuing resolution to the Senate, the House could just recede from its amendment of the Senate-passed bill and immediately send the legislation to the president.
Either way, barring another sudden shift from Trump or House leadership, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history may soon be over — and Democrats are already taking a victory lap.
“Throughout this fight, Senate Democrats never wavered,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. “We were clear from the start: fund critical security, protect Americans, and no blank check for reckless ICE and Border Patrol enforcement.”
“We were united, held the line, and refused to let Republican chaos win,” Schumer added.
Kevin Frey is a congressional reporter for MS NOW.
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.
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