Congress
6 ways the shutdown is about to get worse
The government shutdown gets uglier at the end of this week.
With President Donald Trump traveling abroad and Congress still deeply divided over a path to fund federal agencies, a pileup of deadlines on and around Nov. 1 is set to put many U.S. households at risk of new hardship: Popular programs that provide nutrition assistance, early childhood education and air service to rural communities are now among those about to run out of money.
Thousands of federal employees will also miss their first full paychecks this week, so services like TSA screenings and air traffic control operations could be further stunted if those workers stop showing up, as was the case during the 35-day partial shutdown that ended in early 2019.
“Things are about to get worse,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned in a floor speech late last week.
And that’s to say nothing of the Nov. 1 date that open enrollment begins for Affordable Care Act health plans. That’s when people will start to see just how much their premiums are set to skyrocket because insurers aren’t confident Democrats and Republicans will reach a deal to extend enhanced tax credits before they expire at the end of the year — a central point of conflict amid the partisan shutdown impasse.
Trump employed a strategic — and unprecedented — maneuver to alleviate the first major pain point of the shutdown earlier this month, when he paid active-duty members of the military out of other accounts. Still, the White House has yet to take similar steps to fund several other priorities where payments come due in the coming days.
In Congress, some lawmakers are working to mitigate the shutdown’s effects on select services with piecemeal bills. But none of those measures are on the fast track to final passage.
As the shutdown hits the four-week mark and Thanksgiving fast approaches, here’s when cash is expected to run out for key programs if Congress can’t strike a deal soon.
SNAP food aid
Food assistance that more than 40 million people rely on — the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP — will start to run out of money Saturday. And the Trump administration won’t tap emergency funds to keep those food benefits going, according to a memo obtained by POLITICO.
At least 25 states are already planning to cut off benefits, which support low-income families.
Some lawmakers have been pressing the administration to tap into an agriculture contingency fund to pay out some of the benefits next month. That pot of cash only has about $5 billion left, though — far less than the roughly $9 billion needed to cover food aid through November.
Head Start
Federal funding will stop flowing on Saturday to some early childhood education programs supported by Head Start, the Health and Human Services program that funds education, health and nutrition services for more than 800,000 children under the age of six.
More than 130 programs are set to miss federal funding, spanning 41 states and Puerto Rico, and serving about 59,000 children, according to the National Head Start Association, the nonprofit organization that represents the providers. Loss of federal funding means some teachers won’t get paid and some centers will close.
After funding first lapsed Oct. 1, Head Start programs serving about 6,500 children didn’t get their usual cash.
WIC nutrition assistance
The administration already buoyed funding earlier this month for the federal nutrition assistance program that serves about 7 million low-income mothers and babies by redirecting cash from an account that funds things like school breakfast and lunch programs.
But the coffers will dry up Saturday unless the Trump administration taps another $300 million in emergency cash for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, commonly known as WIC.
Essential Air Service
The Trump administration has warned that the Essential Air Service — which subsidizes airline service to small, often rural, communities — is likely to run out of funding over the weekend.
Some airlines serving Alaska and other remote areas of the country might have to increase airfare to have enough cash to pay staff in the absence of federal subsidies. Residents and businesses in hard-to-reach areas have been sensitive to disruptions in the program, especially after many airlines stopped operating out of small airports during the pandemic.
The service is crucial enough that the Transportation Department tapped $42 million to avoid a lapse earlier this month.
Military pay
Members of the military will miss paychecks on Friday if Trump doesn’t intervene like he did earlier this month, when he paid active-duty servicemembers by tapping about $6.5 billion meant for military research and development efforts. But it could be hard to make the same move again since that pot of cash had about $10 billion left before the president pulled from it last time.
Trump does plan to continue using other funding to cover military paychecks during the shutdown, according to two White House officials granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Pentagon officials also said Friday that they have accepted an anonymous gift of $130 million from a wealthy donor to help pay military salaries during the shutdown.
The White House has not disclosed how much money it believes is still available, however, and a multibillion-dollar payout twice a month could quickly drain the Pentagon’s leftover cash.
Federal civilian paychecks
Many civilian employees across government agencies will experience their first fully missed paychecks of the government shutdown Tuesday and Thursday, after some already went without compensation late last week since there are different pay periods for various federal offices.
Congressional aides are among the people who will feel the pain, with House staffers due to miss pay Friday. Their Senate counterparts are set to go without compensation the following week. The lawmakers embroiled in the shutdown standoff, however, will continue to get their salaries on schedule thanks to the Constitution.
The Trump administration has been looking for ways to pay air traffic controllers during the shutdown following his unilateral action to pay the troops. And while some lawmakers have proposed legislation to that end, Senate Democrats rejected a measure last week that would pay select government workers and active-duty members of the military.
Opponents of that bill argued that it would empower Trump to choose who gets to be paid and who must remain on furlough without a paycheck, strengthening the negotiating position of Republicans as the shutdown continues.
Speaker Mike Johnson has also said he would not call House lawmakers back to town to pass piecemeal bills to pay federal workers, arguing that it would “take the pressure off” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer “to get his job done and open the government again.”
Meredith Lee Hill, Grace Yarrow, Mackenzie Wilkes, Pavan Acharya and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
Congress
Schumer rolls out Democrats’ midterm energy pitch
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer rolled out an energy and climate change agenda Wednesday as a preview of what Democrats have in store if they take the chamber’s majority in November’s elections.
Schumer’s five-point plan seeks to ride the national momentum on affordability, framing Democrats as the party not just of clean energy and fighting climate change, but of lower electricity bills and more jobs.
It touches on some longtime Democratic priorities — like bringing back the Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax incentives that President Donald Trump and Republicans rolled back last year — and easing permitting hurdles for wind, solar and other zero-emissions energy sources.
“We can bring new voters and allies into the fight for a cleaner environment by showing how clean energy is affordable energy,” Schumer said.
“With this new expanded coalition, putting us back in the majority, we have an opportunity to put forward new policy solutions, strong policy solutions, that tell the American people we can both lower costs and make real progress on climate change,” he continued.
Schumer presented the plan at the League of Conservation Voters’ annual Capital Dinner, gathering hundreds of donors, lawmakers, environmental staff and others.
The group, long a major Democratic ally, is one of the nation’s top election spenders, and is poised to be a major part of Democrats’ attempts to recover from their 2024 losses.
Clean energy, Schumer said, is “the cheapest and fastest way to add energy to the grid, and reduces our emissions at the same time.”
The Democrats’ plan seeks to build out more electricity transmission and storage, make sure data centers pay their fair share for energy, and better protect consumers from electricity bill increases.
While many of the pillars are longtime priorities on the left, Schumer emphasized some new priorities. The plan puts geothermal and nuclear energy, including fusion, on a similar level to renewables like wind and solar.
Schumer is also promising “a thorough re-examination of the entire structure and incentives within our energy systems … to prioritize lowering costs,” and new efforts to make electricity bills “easier to understand.”
While Democrats have been engaging with Republicans toward bipartisan permitting legislation for all forms of energy, Schumer presented a more partisan permitting concept in his speech.
“Democrats will provide legislative certainty for clean energy projects, so that workers and investors can rebuild the clean energy project ecosystem that Trump has destroyed,” he said, adding that permitting legislation “never, never must come at the expense of our obligation to protect local communities and safeguard the environment.”
Democrats have not been particularly vocal on climate change in their drive to take the Senate and House majorities, as they reexamine the issue’s palatability with voters. Schumer’s rollout shows at least some willingness to focus on climate, but keeps the party’s priority on affordability.
Democrats currently hold 47 of the Senate’s seats, so they would need a net gain of four seats to get the majority. The party is focusing on candidates like former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Gov. Janet Mills in Maine and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska to get there, but it’s an uphill battle.
The party has also taken recent steps to push its energy agenda in the Senate. Earlier Tuesday, Democrats forced a vote on a resolution that sought to undo Trump’s implementation of clean energy tax policies. More such resolutions are forthcoming.
Congress
Special election shocker has Florida Republicans nervous about redistricting
Florida has been viewed for months as the potential capstone of a GOP redistricting campaign, but now Sunshine State Republicans are growing wary after the dramatic flip of two legislative seats in the state — including one where President Donald Trump votes.
Republicans already hold a commanding 20-8 edge over Democrats in the Florida House delegation, and some in the GOP — including Gov. Ron DeSantis — believe they could pick up as many as five more seats with a rare mid-decade redraw of district lines.
Some Florida incumbents are now warning in stark terms it could backfire.
“I think the Legislature needs to be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive … you could put incumbent members at risk,” GOP Rep. Greg Steube said. Some seats that Republicans previously won by eight or nine points, he said, could instead have only a four- or five-point GOP advantage — putting them in reach for Democrats in a wave election.
DeSantis, citing a state Supreme Court decision from last year and a potential ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, has already called a special session of the state Legislature in April to push ahead with new lines. So far there have been no official maps produced or any signs that lawmakers have started working on them.
Republican anxiety has only grown further after Democrats notched surprising wins in special elections Tuesday, including a Palm Beach County district that contains the Mar-a-Largo resort where Trump lives and votes.
While many in the GOP have brushed off the Democratic gains there and in other states as anomalies, private qualms are growing among the incumbents whose seats could be put at greater risk due to redistricting.
“We keep saying these are kind of one-off things that haven’t gone our way,” said one Florida House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But I’m not seeing any of the one-offs that are going our way.”
“To talk as aggressively as some of what we’ve heard, there’s no way to get there without significantly weakening some districts,” the member added.
House Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the opportunity. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries quickly sent a warning Tuesday night that redistricting could backfire.
“We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” Jeffries said in a post on X.
Others are openly objecting to redistricting on more high-minded grounds. Rep. Daniel Webster, a veteran Republican from central Florida, called it a “slippery slope.”
“I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it can come back and bite you,” he said.
“I don’t like this redistricting stuff,” Jacksonville-area Rep. John Rutherford said, noting south Florida would likely bear the brunt of any changes. “But if they think they can get another two seats or something, have at it.”
Any significant redraw in Florida would likely focus on changing districts that were drawn based on racial considerations, the subject of the court rulings DeSantis has cited. While much of the focus has been on seats held by Democrats, Republicans concede it could lead to changes to the Miami-area district represented by GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.
Some incumbents are also worried that redistricting — still weeks away — is hindering their reelection campaigns as the midterms approach.
“Why would you knock on doors if you don’t know if those doors are gonna be in your district or not?” Steube said.
The hand-wringing over Florida comes as the fallout from Trump’s monthslong redistricting push continues to ripple through the House. Republicans kicked things off with a surprise effort to draw new maps in Texas, but Democrats countered with an effort to draw California’s lines in their favor.
After months of wrangling in about a dozen states, the whole effort looks to end up close to a wash — after some Republicans tried to warn party leaders the heavy-handed effort could backfire.
A group of House Republicans from Florida privately discussed their concerns about the fallout of yet another redistricting push in their state, several Republicans confirmed — especially amid rising anxiety that Hispanic voters could be turning away from the GOP.
House GOP leaders mostly brushed off the Florida special elections in public comments Wednesday, arguing that low-turnout, off-cycle races shouldn’t be considered midterm bellwethers. But some suggested there are lessons to be learned from Tuesday’s results.
“Surely you look at those and see, are there things we can learn and improve upon when the big election comes?” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters Wednesday. “And obviously, November is the election that we are focused on.”
The top leaders of the House GOP’s campaign arm, Reps. Richard Hudson of North Carolina and Brian Jack of Georgia, both deferred to the state Legislature on redistricting in Florida Wednesday.
Hudson, the NRCC chair, said Florida’s growing population means redistricting “makes sense to do,” but he said he was more concerned about turnout and other factors.
Jack, the group’s deputy chair for recruiting, similarly talked up the candidates Republicans would be fielding in Florida and elsewhere. As for redistricting, he said, “I defer to the Legislature.”
“It’s up to them,” he said, “not up to us.”
Congress
Arrington: Fraud cuts for war funding
House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington is making clear he will push for the “fraud prevention” spending cuts he wants across state and social safety net programs in order to pay for any Iran war funding in a second GOP reconciliation bill.
The Texas Republican is meeting soon this afternoon with Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in Graham’s office to discuss plans.
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