Connect with us

Congress

Skepticism abounds that Election Day will be a shutdown inflection point

Published

on

The government shutdown has blown through missed paychecks, mass firings and threats of delayed public benefits. It will soon be voters’ turn to help bust through the impasse.

In less than two weeks, closely contested statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia will offer the first serious test of the electorate since President Donald Trump began his second term. If the shutdown does not end before then, returns will come in on the day it matches the 35-day record.

Whether the people’s voice will matter is another question entirely. Lawmakers of both parties said in interviews they were skeptical that the election results would move them or party leaders off their firmly entrenched positions. Many said they expected the outcome to only validate their priors.

“I don’t think any Democrats here are looking at the shutdown in the context of the margin of victory in Virginia,” said Rep. James Walkinshaw, a Democrat who represents the state’s close-in Washington suburbs. He predicted a Democratic victory could force Republicans to change course, not his own party.

Those predictions are underscored by the vanishingly small role the shutdown has appeared to play in both states as early voting begins. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Democrat-turned-Republican from south New Jersey, said the shutdown will have at most “a tiny tangential effect” in his state.

“If they’re smart, they realize no one gains or loses a lot from it,” he said of the two gubernatorial contenders — Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Even in federal-worker-heavy Virginia, the shutdown has been subsumed by a larger clash over Trump’s sharp-elbowed approach to cutting government spending and its impact on government jobs. A recent Washington Post-George Mason University poll found only 1 percent of respondents ranked the shutdown as the most important issue in that state’s elections.

The disconnect between the standoff in Washington and the attitudes of voters could scramble how the off-year elections are interpreted. Typically, they are seen as bellwethers for presidents and their parties.

Coming off their 2016 shock loss to Trump, Democrats were buoyed by big victories in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017. Republicans were hopeful during President Joe Biden’s first term after flipping the Virginia gubernatorial mansion and coming close in New Jersey. This time, the political lessons could be muddled.

It’s possible there could be a split result in the two gubernatorial races. Democrats see the shutdown and the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers as turbocharging their efforts in Virginia, where Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger is banking on a Trump backlash and tying Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to his administration’s dramatic cuts.

“Federal workers feel like this administration has been literally abusing them for months,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). “There is huge amounts of fear.”

Trump has been a major factor in New Jersey, especially after the president took aim this month at a key infrastructure project relied on by New York City commuters. But cost-of-living concerns have also been front and center. And in running to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, Sherrill is working against the Garden State’s political gravity: No party has held the governor’s mansion for more than three terms consecutively since 1961.

Even within each state, there could be mixed results. In recent polls, for instance, Spanberger has run ahead of Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who has been dogged by the public release of text messages where he fantasized about the death of a prominent Republican and his family.

Nov. 4 will also see the climax of a high-profile mayoral race in New York City and a closely watched California ballot measure that would allow a redraw of congressional lines in the state. Neither result will map neatly onto the shutdown fight and will compete for attention with the big governors’ races.

Taken together, that has left partisans on both sides comfortable saying they have no plans to reconsider their positions on what could become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

“No matter what happens politically in Virginia or New Jersey or elsewhere, Democrats will continue to stay the course in our efforts to deliver for the American people,” said Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.).

“If Democrats had not voted to shut down the government, there would have been no furloughs or layoffs,” said Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) in a statement. She added that Democrats currently on the ballot “must now own the obstructionist values of their D.C. colleagues who remain focused on catering to their far left base instead of working for the American people.”

So far this month, lawmakers have cited conflicting polling showing that voters are blaming the other party for the shutdown. Most national surveys show the electorate closely divided on the blame game, with a small plurality saying Republicans are most at fault. House Democrats were recently heartened by internal polling of key swing districts from early October showing a modest increase in their candidates’ prospects against generic Republicans.

But polls are no substitute for elections, and on Nov. 4, lawmakers will see the most reliable measure of voter sentiment in two of the most populous states in the country. There are more than 18 million residents in New Jersey and Virginia combined, accounting for about 5 percent of the total U.S. population.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat whose home state of Maryland sits between New Jersey and Virginia, predicts that the results of the two gubernatorial races will be “a referendum on the Trump administration,” at least in part.

“And I think that people are going to come out and show their strong disapproval of the way Trump is conducting himself, including the shutdown,” he said.

But others had their doubts that there would be any lessons to glean that could help bring a historic standoff to an end.

“State elections are state elections,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) was even more blunt: “I don’t know what affects the shutdown, honestly.”

Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Congress

GOP senators hope for a quick Cabinet shakeup

Published

on

If you’re a Cabinet official thinking of pursuing a new professional opportunity, Senate Republicans have a request: Now’s the time to call it quits.

The departure this week of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who is following former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi out the door, has some GOP lawmakers pondering a larger Cabinet shakeup and what that could mean to an unsettled Senate floor schedule.

Senate Republicans are already trying to juggle a shrinking window for lawmaking before the November midterms — including at least one potential party-line budget reconciliation bill, a litany of measures they are negotiating with the House and, some hope, a possible Supreme Court vacancy.

That’s not to mention the growing uncertainty about what will happen in the midterms themselves, with many Republicans growing concerned that their four-seat majority could be at risk.

“The number of working days are very limited,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said in an interview. “You just do the math. It’s a very compressed schedule.”

Tillis is among a group of Republican senators who believe Trump should make any further changes to his inner circle sooner rather than later to give the Senate maximum flexibility in confirming replacements. Waiting, they fear, could mean significant delays in confirmations or worse if Democrats can retake the majority.

Another GOP senator, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, said any personnel shakeup is ultimately up to Trump but that it would “make sense to do it now.”

“As we get closer to the election … you never know what’s going to happen to the Senate,” the senator said.

No GOP senator is openly pointing to any particular Cabinet official as likely to depart. But three privately fingered Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as someone they believe the president is likely to remove.

A fourth questioned how long Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, would remain in her post given her split with the president on recent issues such as the Iran war and a soon-to-lapse surveillance authority, though many Republicans believe she has powerful allies within the White House and outside of the administration.

FBI Director Kash Patel is also under fresh scrutiny after The Atlantic published allegations of drinking and erratic behavior, which he has denied and launched a defamation lawsuit over. Two of the GOP senators granted anonymity to speak candidly said they believed Patel was on the rocks.

“He’s in a bad mood, so he’s letting a lot of them go,” one of the four said about Trump. “He’s preparing to really let a lot of them go.”

The senator added that the shakeup should happen sooner rather than later, saying, “It’s not like we’ll have that much time.”

The urgency was further underscored Wednesday by the sudden departure of Navy Secretary John Phelan, who was not a Cabinet member but occupied a senior Senate-confirmed post that is now vacant in wartime.

Other senators aren’t fretting, noting that any move to remake the Cabinet depends solely on Trump, who has been known to mull privately for months about potentially firing someone before taking action.

“I don’t think that’s how it works,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said. “Typically, you see some changes before, like right after the midterms, in preparation for the next two-year cycle.”

The White House defended Trump’s personnel choices in a statement Wednesday.

“The President has assembled a world-class cabinet who are tirelessly implementing the President’s agenda and achieving tremendous results for the American people,” spokesperson Davis Ingle said. “They will continue fulfilling the many promises President Trump was elected to enact. The White House is appreciative of their service to this country.”

The prospects for replacing Bondi, Chavez-DeRemer, Phelan and others could vary wildly.

Republicans were able to confirm Markwayne Mullin to succeed Noem at DHS in a matter of weeks — but that was the exception, not the norm. Mullin enjoyed bipartisan support as a sitting senator and moved through a committee with few procedural hurdles.

The Judiciary Committee, in contrast, has a 28-day holdover period between when it receives a nominee questionnaire and when it holds a hearing, meaning the Senate’s consideration of any attorney general nominee will be much slower.

Several committees including Judiciary, Banking and Finance all have one-seat margins between the parties, meaning that nominees that can’t garner Democratic support risk getting blocked by opposition from just one GOP panel member.

In addition to the Cabinet nominees, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is working to assemble a package of lower-level nominations to confirm as a group — though even that can be tricky. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), for instance, is holding up all Coast Guard promotions over a contract dispute.

Then there’s the growing pile of backed-up legislation, including the renewal of a contentious surveillance law, a stalled-out housing bill, the GOP’s party-line push for immigration enforcement and a potential push for yet another budget reconciliation bill. The chamber will also be out of session for long stretches later this year to accommodate midterm campaigning.

“We’ve got a full plate, so confirming new people is going to take a while,” Thune said.

Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) added that the Senate was also busy with the annual government funding process and assembling the mammoth defense policy bill.

“They’ll do it based on what’s best for them and the president,” he said of any departing deputies. “I think it’s totally up to the president as to when he would want to make a submission.”

The White House is signaling that it’s aware of the Senate’s calendar as it considers staffing shakeups and is trying to give the chamber enough time to confirm replacements before the end of the year approaches. Tillis warned that if Trump waits until June or July to oust additional officials, the Senate could run out of time to confirm them.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) questioned if the time crunch wasn’t already so severe that filling any additional Cabinet departures would have to be a “lame duck thing” — referring to the traditional session held between an election and the beginning of the next Congress.

“I think we’re probably better right now … having the stability,” Cramer added.

The North Dakota Republican pointed to other items he wants to get done in the meantime, including appropriations, permitting reform, a farm bill and judicial nominations.

“There are big things to do yet,” Cramer said, noting the “constant Supreme Court chatter” he’d heard. “In fact, that would be more important.”

Leo Shane III contributed to this report. 

Continue Reading

Congress

Senate Republicans clear go-it-alone path for ICE funding

Published

on

Senate Republicans green-lit their party-line plan early Thursday morning to send tens of billions of dollars to immigration enforcement agencies in the coming years.

Senators voted 50-48 to adopt a budget blueprint for legislation that could fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Border Patrol and other agencies for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term. The vote was almost entirely on party lines, with GOP Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska the only lawmakers to break ranks.

The vote just after 3:30 a.m. completed the first step in the GOP’s plan to approve roughly $70 billion in additional funding without help from Democrats, who have refused to fund the immigration agencies without a slate of new restrictions on how they operate.

“Our Democratic colleagues have refused to provide funding for the Border Patrol and ICE,” Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said ahead of the Senate’s late-night session. “This needs to be done.”

As part of an hours-long overnight marathon of amendment votes, Republicans rejected Democratic attempts to broaden the budget framework to fund school meals, increase federal spending on child care and reverse cuts to SNAP food benefits Republicans enacted last summer in their tax-cuts-focused megabill.

“Republicans could easily do this, but they’d rather spend our tax dollars on lawless immigration enforcement and illegal wars,” Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) said on the Senate floor after offering the school meals amendment. “Budgets are about priorities.”

The resolution still needs to clear the House, where some GOP lawmakers, including Budget Chair Jodey Arrington, are still dreaming of expanding the scope of the budget resolution to squeeze in other party priorities before the end of the year.

“If they feel like there’s only one chance, they’re going to want more,” the Texas conservative said in an interview Wednesday. “I have an equal number of people saying, ‘you know, do you really think we’re going to get a third? Should we go ahead and just load it up with more reforms?’”

Any changes to the budget resolution would punt it back to the Senate, eating up floor time and forcing more amendment votes — something Majority Leader John Thune and other Republicans are eager to avoid. Thune is intent on keeping the budget resolution narrow, believing that gives them their best opportunity to quickly send a bill to Trump before the June 1 deadline he set.

During the overnight voting spree, the Senate rejected Sen. John Kennedy’s (R-La.) proposal to add pieces of the SAVE America Act elections bill to the immigration enforcement bill. Four Republican senators voted to reject the plan: Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Besides the fact that Kennedy’s proposal would expand the scope of the legislation GOP leaders want to keep narrow, many lawmakers in both parties also believe elections policy would not be allowed under the strict rules of the filibuster-skirting process that can only be used to clear policy with a direct impact on the federal budget. 

“Some say it can’t be done,” Kennedy said. “They may be right. But do you know what else? They can’t predict the future.”

Once the budget resolution is adopted in both chambers, congressional committees will proceed to write legislation to actually deliver the funding it sketches out.

House GOP leaders are planning for now to stick with the narrow budget blueprint. Thune and Graham got a boost Wednesday from Trump, who praised the two and urged Republican senators to stay united and reject any potential amendments.

“Republicans must stick together and UNIFY to get this done, and to keep America safe — something which the Democrats don’t care about,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The overnight “vote-a-rama” is a feature of the party-line budget reconciliation process Republicans are using to skirt a Democratic filibuster in the Senate. It does allow Senate Democrats to force amendment votes on virtually anything they want, and party leaders were keen to put Republicans on the record on cost-of-living issues, including health care, housing and the cost of electricity as they sharpen their midterm focus on affordability.

“Republicans are choosing to spend time and taxpayer dollars funding agencies that are already funded instead of lowering costs for the American people,” Schumer said Wednesday ahead of the marathon voting session.

Several Republicans voted in support of some of the Democrat-led amendments.

Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri, Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Collins supported proposals aimed at lowering the cost of prescription drugs and preventing insurance companies from denying or delaying necessary health care. Collins and Sullivan voted in favor of Democratic amendments to reverse cuts to SNAP food aid, limit out-of-pocket health care costs and fund school meals.

Republican Sens. Ashley Moody of Florida, Murkowski and Collins also voted for an amendment aimed at forcing the Trump administration to spend FEMA funding on public assistance and disaster mitigation programs.

Continue Reading

Congress

New Jersey’s most vulnerable GOP incumbent is MIA

Published

on

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. represents New Jersey’s most competitive district this November — but nobody, even his GOP colleagues, can say where he’s been for the past month.

A scion of one of the state’s most storied political dynasties, Kean’s team says the two-term congressmember is facing unspecified health issues. The New Jersey Republican hasn’t voted since March 5 and has missed almost 50 roll call votes.

The other two Republicans in the New Jersey delegation, Reps. Chris Smith and Jeff Van Drew, said they have called and texted Kean out of concern for his health. But so far, neither said they have heard from him. Van Drew said it’s been “radio silence.”

Several New York Republicans who have worked with Kean on key issues said similarly. Kean’s absence has largely fallen under the radar and GOP leaders haven’t addressed the issue to the conference, according to several Republicans.

One Republican, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), said he didn’t even realize Kean had been missing until he tried to find him on the House floor Tuesday.

“I was looking for him,” Bacon said in an interview Wednesday. “I didn’t know it was that long.”

“I know the congressman and his family appreciate all of the well wishes and support,” Kean consultant Harrison Neely told Blue Light News. “Please know that he will be back on a regular full schedule very soon.”

Closer to home, Kean’s allies also expect him to come back soon.

“I don’t even know the truth myself or even enough to disclose any information,” Union County GOP Chair Carlos Santos told Blue Light News. “But I have been texting with him and was told he’ll be fine and make a full recovery in the next couple weeks.”

Kean represents New Jersey’s most competitive House seat — the 7th Congressional District, a large swath across the northern and central part of the state that includes Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. President Donald Trump narrowly carried it by one point in the 2024 presidential race, but Democratic former Rep. Mikie Sherrill carried the district by nearly two points in the 2025 governor’s race. Kean won the district by around five points in 2024.

Kean enters reelection in what could be his most challenging congressional bid to date. He faces an environment that is increasingly challenging for Republicans and the Trump administration is opening an immigration detention facility in his district while pulling funding for a major infrastructure project for New Jersey commuters — both of which have put him in a precarious position.

But Kean’s backers say his temporary absence will hardly be on voters’ minds come November.

“Everyone understands from their own family experiences that people run into unexpected health issues,” Bill Palatucci, a Republican National Committee member and attorney to the Kean campaign, told Blue Light News. “Voters will be completely sympathetic and it’s so early in the year that it will be long forgotten come the fall.”

There is a competitive Democratic primary to take on Kean, with four prominent candidates.

Democrats in the New Jersey delegation have also noticed his absence and have started to be concerned for the congressmember’s health. Those members have also not heard anything.

“It’s been a long absence,” New Jersey Democrat Rep. Rob Menendez said. “I hope he’s doing all right. But I haven’t heard anything.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

Continue Reading

Trending