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Skepticism abounds that Election Day will be a shutdown inflection point

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The government shutdown has blown through missed paychecks, mass firings and threats of delayed public benefits. It will soon be voters’ turn to help bust through the impasse.

In less than two weeks, closely contested statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia will offer the first serious test of the electorate since President Donald Trump began his second term. If the shutdown does not end before then, returns will come in on the day it matches the 35-day record.

Whether the people’s voice will matter is another question entirely. Lawmakers of both parties said in interviews they were skeptical that the election results would move them or party leaders off their firmly entrenched positions. Many said they expected the outcome to only validate their priors.

“I don’t think any Democrats here are looking at the shutdown in the context of the margin of victory in Virginia,” said Rep. James Walkinshaw, a Democrat who represents the state’s close-in Washington suburbs. He predicted a Democratic victory could force Republicans to change course, not his own party.

Those predictions are underscored by the vanishingly small role the shutdown has appeared to play in both states as early voting begins. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Democrat-turned-Republican from south New Jersey, said the shutdown will have at most “a tiny tangential effect” in his state.

“If they’re smart, they realize no one gains or loses a lot from it,” he said of the two gubernatorial contenders — Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Even in federal-worker-heavy Virginia, the shutdown has been subsumed by a larger clash over Trump’s sharp-elbowed approach to cutting government spending and its impact on government jobs. A recent Washington Post-George Mason University poll found only 1 percent of respondents ranked the shutdown as the most important issue in that state’s elections.

The disconnect between the standoff in Washington and the attitudes of voters could scramble how the off-year elections are interpreted. Typically, they are seen as bellwethers for presidents and their parties.

Coming off their 2016 shock loss to Trump, Democrats were buoyed by big victories in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017. Republicans were hopeful during President Joe Biden’s first term after flipping the Virginia gubernatorial mansion and coming close in New Jersey. This time, the political lessons could be muddled.

It’s possible there could be a split result in the two gubernatorial races. Democrats see the shutdown and the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers as turbocharging their efforts in Virginia, where Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger is banking on a Trump backlash and tying Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to his administration’s dramatic cuts.

“Federal workers feel like this administration has been literally abusing them for months,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). “There is huge amounts of fear.”

Trump has been a major factor in New Jersey, especially after the president took aim this month at a key infrastructure project relied on by New York City commuters. But cost-of-living concerns have also been front and center. And in running to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, Sherrill is working against the Garden State’s political gravity: No party has held the governor’s mansion for more than three terms consecutively since 1961.

Even within each state, there could be mixed results. In recent polls, for instance, Spanberger has run ahead of Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who has been dogged by the public release of text messages where he fantasized about the death of a prominent Republican and his family.

Nov. 4 will also see the climax of a high-profile mayoral race in New York City and a closely watched California ballot measure that would allow a redraw of congressional lines in the state. Neither result will map neatly onto the shutdown fight and will compete for attention with the big governors’ races.

Taken together, that has left partisans on both sides comfortable saying they have no plans to reconsider their positions on what could become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

“No matter what happens politically in Virginia or New Jersey or elsewhere, Democrats will continue to stay the course in our efforts to deliver for the American people,” said Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.).

“If Democrats had not voted to shut down the government, there would have been no furloughs or layoffs,” said Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) in a statement. She added that Democrats currently on the ballot “must now own the obstructionist values of their D.C. colleagues who remain focused on catering to their far left base instead of working for the American people.”

So far this month, lawmakers have cited conflicting polling showing that voters are blaming the other party for the shutdown. Most national surveys show the electorate closely divided on the blame game, with a small plurality saying Republicans are most at fault. House Democrats were recently heartened by internal polling of key swing districts from early October showing a modest increase in their candidates’ prospects against generic Republicans.

But polls are no substitute for elections, and on Nov. 4, lawmakers will see the most reliable measure of voter sentiment in two of the most populous states in the country. There are more than 18 million residents in New Jersey and Virginia combined, accounting for about 5 percent of the total U.S. population.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat whose home state of Maryland sits between New Jersey and Virginia, predicts that the results of the two gubernatorial races will be “a referendum on the Trump administration,” at least in part.

“And I think that people are going to come out and show their strong disapproval of the way Trump is conducting himself, including the shutdown,” he said.

But others had their doubts that there would be any lessons to glean that could help bring a historic standoff to an end.

“State elections are state elections,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) was even more blunt: “I don’t know what affects the shutdown, honestly.”

Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

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Congress

Schumer rolls out Democrats’ midterm energy pitch

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer rolled out an energy and climate change agenda Wednesday as a preview of what Democrats have in store if they take the chamber’s majority in November’s elections.

Schumer’s five-point plan seeks to ride the national momentum on affordability, framing Democrats as the party not just of clean energy and fighting climate change, but of lower electricity bills and more jobs.

It touches on some longtime Democratic priorities — like bringing back the Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax incentives that President Donald Trump and Republicans rolled back last year — and easing permitting hurdles for wind, solar and other zero-emissions energy sources.

“We can bring new voters and allies into the fight for a cleaner environment by showing how clean energy is affordable energy,” Schumer said.

“With this new expanded coalition, putting us back in the majority, we have an opportunity to put forward new policy solutions, strong policy solutions, that tell the American people we can both lower costs and make real progress on climate change,” he continued.

Schumer presented the plan at the League of Conservation Voters’ annual Capital Dinner, gathering hundreds of donors, lawmakers, environmental staff and others.

The group, long a major Democratic ally, is one of the nation’s top election spenders, and is poised to be a major part of Democrats’ attempts to recover from their 2024 losses.

Clean energy, Schumer said, is “the cheapest and fastest way to add energy to the grid, and reduces our emissions at the same time.”

The Democrats’ plan seeks to build out more electricity transmission and storage, make sure data centers pay their fair share for energy, and better protect consumers from electricity bill increases.

While many of the pillars are longtime priorities on the left, Schumer emphasized some new priorities. The plan puts geothermal and nuclear energy, including fusion, on a similar level to renewables like wind and solar.

Schumer is also promising “a thorough re-examination of the entire structure and incentives within our energy systems … to prioritize lowering costs,” and new efforts to make electricity bills “easier to understand.”

While Democrats have been engaging with Republicans toward bipartisan permitting legislation for all forms of energy, Schumer presented a more partisan permitting concept in his speech.

“Democrats will provide legislative certainty for clean energy projects, so that workers and investors can rebuild the clean energy project ecosystem that Trump has destroyed,” he said, adding that permitting legislation “never, never must come at the expense of our obligation to protect local communities and safeguard the environment.”

Democrats have not been particularly vocal on climate change in their drive to take the Senate and House majorities, as they reexamine the issue’s palatability with voters. Schumer’s rollout shows at least some willingness to focus on climate, but keeps the party’s priority on affordability.

Democrats currently hold 47 of the Senate’s seats, so they would need a net gain of four seats to get the majority. The party is focusing on candidates like former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Gov. Janet Mills in Maine and former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska to get there, but it’s an uphill battle.

The party has also taken recent steps to push its energy agenda in the Senate. Earlier Tuesday, Democrats forced a vote on a resolution that sought to undo Trump’s implementation of clean energy tax policies. More such resolutions are forthcoming.

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Special election shocker has Florida Republicans nervous about redistricting

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Florida has been viewed for months as the potential capstone of a GOP redistricting campaign, but now Sunshine State Republicans are growing wary after the dramatic flip of two legislative seats in the state — including one where President Donald Trump votes.

Republicans already hold a commanding 20-8 edge over Democrats in the Florida House delegation, and some in the GOP — including Gov. Ron DeSantis — believe they could pick up as many as five more seats with a rare mid-decade redraw of district lines.

Some Florida incumbents are now warning in stark terms it could backfire.

“I think the Legislature needs to be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive … you could put incumbent members at risk,” GOP Rep. Greg Steube said. Some seats that Republicans previously won by eight or nine points, he said, could instead have only a four- or five-point GOP advantage — putting them in reach for Democrats in a wave election.

DeSantis, citing a state Supreme Court decision from last year and a potential ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, has already called a special session of the state Legislature in April to push ahead with new lines. So far there have been no official maps produced or any signs that lawmakers have started working on them.

Republican anxiety has only grown further after Democrats notched surprising wins in special elections Tuesday, including a Palm Beach County district that contains the Mar-a-Largo resort where Trump lives and votes.

While many in the GOP have brushed off the Democratic gains there and in other states as anomalies, private qualms are growing among the incumbents whose seats could be put at greater risk due to redistricting.

“We keep saying these are kind of one-off things that haven’t gone our way,” said one Florida House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But I’m not seeing any of the one-offs that are going our way.”

“To talk as aggressively as some of what we’ve heard, there’s no way to get there without significantly weakening some districts,” the member added.

House Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the opportunity. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries quickly sent a warning Tuesday night that redistricting could backfire.

“We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” Jeffries said in a post on X.

Others are openly objecting to redistricting on more high-minded grounds. Rep. Daniel Webster, a veteran Republican from central Florida, called it a “slippery slope.”

“I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it can come back and bite you,” he said.

“I don’t like this redistricting stuff,” Jacksonville-area Rep. John Rutherford said, noting south Florida would likely bear the brunt of any changes. “But if they think they can get another two seats or something, have at it.”

Any significant redraw in Florida would likely focus on changing districts that were drawn based on racial considerations, the subject of the court rulings DeSantis has cited. While much of the focus has been on seats held by Democrats, Republicans concede it could lead to changes to the Miami-area district represented by GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.

Some incumbents are also worried that redistricting — still weeks away — is hindering their reelection campaigns as the midterms approach.

“Why would you knock on doors if you don’t know if those doors are gonna be in your district or not?” Steube said.

The hand-wringing over Florida comes as the fallout from Trump’s monthslong redistricting push continues to ripple through the House. Republicans kicked things off with a surprise effort to draw new maps in Texas, but Democrats countered with an effort to draw California’s lines in their favor.

After months of wrangling in about a dozen states, the whole effort looks to end up close to a wash — after some Republicans tried to warn party leaders the heavy-handed effort could backfire.

A group of House Republicans from Florida privately discussed their concerns about the fallout of yet another redistricting push in their state, several Republicans confirmed — especially amid rising anxiety that Hispanic voters could be turning away from the GOP.

House GOP leaders mostly brushed off the Florida special elections in public comments Wednesday, arguing that low-turnout, off-cycle races shouldn’t be considered midterm bellwethers. But some suggested there are lessons to be learned from Tuesday’s results.

“Surely you look at those and see, are there things we can learn and improve upon when the big election comes?” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters Wednesday. “And obviously, November is the election that we are focused on.”

The top leaders of the House GOP’s campaign arm, Reps. Richard Hudson of North Carolina and Brian Jack of Georgia, both deferred to the state Legislature on redistricting in Florida Wednesday.

Hudson, the NRCC chair, said Florida’s growing population means redistricting “makes sense to do,” but he said he was more concerned about turnout and other factors.

Jack, the group’s deputy chair for recruiting, similarly talked up the candidates Republicans would be fielding in Florida and elsewhere. As for redistricting, he said, “I defer to the Legislature.”

“It’s up to them,” he said, “not up to us.”

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Congress

Arrington: Fraud cuts for war funding

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House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington is making clear he will push for the “fraud prevention” spending cuts he wants across state and social safety net programs in order to pay for any Iran war funding in a second GOP reconciliation bill.

The Texas Republican is meeting soon this afternoon with Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) in Graham’s office to discuss plans.

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