Politics
Youngkin went to war with an openly gay GOP candidate. He lost this round.
The blast radius from the controversy surrounding Virginia’s Republican lieutenant governor candidate expanded this week, when a top political aide to Gov. Glenn Youngkin stepped down from his post.His departure was the latest event in a week of turmoil that has pitted Republican leaders in the state against the GOP’s grassroots, upending a party that was already confronting a difficult election year.
The conflict centers on the political future of lieutenant governor candidate John Reid, who resisted a week of pressure from some Virginia Republican Party leaders to step aside over allegations that he maintained a social media account with sexually explicit images of men. Reid, the first openly gay candidate for statewide office in Virginia, denied that he was connected to the photos, and has argued that efforts to remove him from the Republican ticket are rooted in discrimination against his sexual orientation.
When Republican Party leaders in Virginia became aware of the photos, some tried to force Reid out of the race. Youngkin asked Reid to drop out last week, confirmed by Blue Light News. But the attempts to oust him backfired. Matt Moran, who ran Youngkin’s political operation, stepped aside as he was accused of pressuring Reid to remove himself from the GOP ticket — something Moran has denied publicly.
Moran did not respond to a request for comment. A representative for Youngkin pointed to comments from the governor on Friday where he declined to say if he would campaign on behalf of Reid, but said he will “support the nominees and their ticket. And at the end of the day, Republicans need to win. And that’s the bottom line.”
The fallout has created a rift within the state party as it faces an uphill battle in November. President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk’s war on the federal workforce has hit hard in a state where more than 150,000 federal employees live. The controversy, Republicans conceded, could tarnish Youngkin’s efforts to position himself as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, and it is widely viewed as a misstep.
“If John Reid is conservative and he’s being trashed by his own political party, you need to go out there and support him,” said Scott Pio, who chairs the Loudoun County GOP, which has started selling “In John Reid We Trust” mugs, with proceedings going toward Reid’s campaign. “You need to lean in and support the guy instead of run away from him.”
One Virginia Republican operative, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak freely, shrugged off the photos as “just a bunch of penises,” while another said of the episode, “This is insane.”
The second operative said the day before Moran’s departure became public, “The only winners here are Democrats and then a bunch of losers who are Republicans and starting with the governor and going on down to the rest of the ticket.”
Yet GOP consultant Rory Cooper dismissed the drama as a “purely Virginia thing” that has mainly captured the attention of political insiders, and likely won’t have any impact on an election six months away.
“Candidate choice matters, the party being united matters, and I think they’ll get this stuff behind them because they really have no choice,” Cooper said. “A fractured party is not going to be able to beat a moderate Democrat who has high favorables going into the general, and so they’ll figure it out.”
That message of unity appears to be echoed by Reid’s campaign.
“John is proud to be the Republican nominee and he looks forward to campaigning across the state over the coming months,” Reid’s campaign said in a statement. “He has been very clear that he welcomes the support of the governor, full ticket, and all Virginians who are committed to unity around our ticket and a positive future for our home.”
Fear that the controversy could weaken the GOP ticket is not limited to strategists inside the GOP. Winsome Earle-Sears, the presumptive GOP gubernatorial nominee, in a public statement Tuesday quoted from the Book of Matthew and called the focus on Reid a distraction from what she cast as a mission of uniting Virginians. “It is his race and his decision alone to move forward,” she said. Earle-Sears did not respond to questions.
Earle-Sears, who authored a Christian self-help book, holds socially conservative beliefs. In 2024, when fulfilling her duties as lieutenant governor to sign legislation, she hand wrote her personal objections to a bill that prohibits officials from denying marriage licenses based on sex, gender or race.
Reid held a solo rally in Henrico, Virginia, on Wednesday evening, after plans for Youngkin and the entire GOP ticket to appear together were scrapped. Facing a large crowd, Reid railed against the “Richmond swamp” that “does not like it when they encounter a different type of person who they can’t control.”
The fact that Reid is drawing fervent grassroots support in the GOP represents another marker in the ongoing populist transformation of a party that, for decades, made social conservatism and, in particular, opposition to same-sex marriage, a key part of its platform. This shift, embodied by the election of Trump, a thrice-married New York reality television star, has led to Republican primary voters focusing more on “fighting” than on “family values.”
The attempt to oust Reid, and the turmoil that followed, may in part be because the operative class has not quite caught up to the grassroots on this issue. A third Republican operative familiar with the situation said there was the sense that some Virginia Republicans were panicked that Reid’s sexual orientation would be an electoral drag and then used the social media account to work backwards and justify dropping him from the ticket.
U.S. Rep. Morgan Griffith, a Republican, said that having a diverse GOP ticket — a Black woman, an openly gay man as well Attorney General Jason Miyares, the son of a Cuban refugee — should help Republicans’ odds in November. “That’s a good, feel good story, no matter what,” he said, referring to the candidates’ backgrounds. “And that story should override, assuming that those pictures aren’t a whole lot worse than it was depicted.”
On Thursday morning, Reid guest-hosted a four-hour conservative radio show, and a series of callers spent their morning bashing Youngkin and his allies. Reid, who said he had secured the guest spot before he was asked to leave the race, was filling in for host John Fredericks, who described Reid as “a friend.”
“Everyone who is trying to come out against you really learned a lesson last night of what not to do,” said a Virginia caller named Casey. Another caller went straight after Youngkin, calling the governor “nothing more than a RINO.”
The backlash doesn’t bode well for Youngkin, who is term-limited in the state and looking for his next opportunity. How he navigates this situation with his own state party could have major implications for his political future.
Reid’s only primary opponent, longtime Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, dropped out of the race late last month due to health concerns, locking in Reid as the nominee.
“If you were that worried about (me being gay), why didn’t you run a bunch of other people?” Reid said on the radio show Thursday morning.
But staying on the ticket is one thing. Winning in November is another.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, who represents part of Northern Virginia, said it doesn’t matter who the GOP nominates for lieutenant governor, because the Trump administration’s overhaul of the federal government has created a tough environment for down-ballot Republicans in a state where many federal employees live.
“Virginians are mad right now,” Subramanyam said. “Whoever the Republican nominee is in November is going to pay a price for what’s going on in D.C. right now.”
Ally Mutnick contributed reporting.
Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers called for an end to the “tariff war” with Canada in a new campaign advertisement released on Wednesday, another break from the Trump administration weeks before the midterm elections.
Rogers’ ad comes as Republican campaign groups across the country have entered triage mode in an effort to salvage GOP control in an unfavorable political environment.
“Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now,” Rogers said in the advertisement, which is part of a coordinated spend between his campaign at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
He added, “as Michigan’s senator, I’ll bring both parties together to lower your prices.”
Each year, Michigan does roughly $80 billion in trade with Canada, according to the Michigan Chamber of Commerce.
The new video comes weeks after he put out another advertisement breaking with President Donald Trump, publicly calling for the war with Iran to end “quickly.”
In both commercials, Rogers said that prices are too high and neither mentioned the president by name.
The latest ad is a shift from his previous positioning on trade with Canada.
Last month, Rogers said that some of the tariffs imposed on Canadian goods are needed, as the state’s manufacturing sector has been gutted by cheap foreign imports in the past.
“President Trump is right to put America first — and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution,” Rogers previously said in a press release.
But, he also said he has the pull to end the trade war threatening Michigan.
The White House, along with Rogers’ and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s campaigns, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
National Republicans have spent months trying to rescue Ken Paxton. He’s complicating that effort.
Tensions are brewing with some Republicans after Blue Light News published Paxton’s closed-door comments that “D.C.” Republicans were largely controlling his race.
“He is welcome to raise his own money and say whatever he wants,” said one Republican involved in the Paxton rescue effort, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “In fact, if he did that, he’d probably be winning right now and we wouldn’t need to spend all this money.”
Senate Republicans and top operatives didn’t want to be in this position in the first place. Many had warned that the Trump effort to unseat Sen. John Cornyn and back Paxton in the primary would cost Republicans hundreds of millions to drag Paxton across the finish line in the general election. Cornyn and Senate GOP groups spent millions of dollars on ads during the primary attacking Paxton over his series of scandals and warning he was a flawed candidate.
Since then, the usual crowd of never-Paxton types has expanded into a wider circle of frustrated Republicans who are irked by the effort it’s taking to boost the scandal-plagued Senate candidate. And Paxton saying he doesn’t control his campaign messaging — alongside his remarks that President Donald Trump’s midterm convention hurt him politically — isn’t helping.
Paxton also complained about the drag of the Iran war and high prices on his campaign in another closed-door recording that Axios published Wednesday.
“Beggars can’t be choosers. He can try to raise federal money at a level that is necessary to save his candidacy at this point but his arms don’t reach that high,” said a Texas-based GOP consultant who’s closely monitoring multiple races. “As usual, he communicates something that is unhelpful, that is undisciplined, that is politically self-harmful and like most things, lacks any gratitude whatsoever.”
The top Senate GOP super PAC, Trump’s aligned MAGA Inc. operation and other Republicans are pumping more than $200 million into the race to salvage Paxton’s campaign against Democrat James Talarico. Trump allies say they have worked hard to shore up Paxton, suggesting they’ve pushed donations toward the campaign and the larger GOP Super PAC effort to avoid disaster in the Lone Star state. Trump plans to travel to Texas for the second time Wednesday to boost Paxton.
Paxton allies have brushed off his latest closed-door comments, saying he was referring to GOP super PACs he’s not allowed to coordinate with as a candidate.
The Paxton campaign did not respond to a request for comment, though campaign adviser Nick Maddux said in response to POLITICO’s initial report of the audio that “AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority which is why he’s on the ground every day.”
But another Republican, a Trump ally working on the fundraising effort, said the national intervention isn’t overstepping. That person said the messaging guidance from the national GOP is standard for major Senate races and that Paxton “needs the help.”
One national GOP operative involved in the Texas Senate race noted that the attorney general’s lackluster fundraising early on left him vulnerable to Talarico’s attacks throughout the summer — especially over Paxton’s series of “self-inflicted” scandals, which have made him “toxic” with key voting blocs in the deep red state.
“We warned them about this,” the GOP operative said.
The Texas Senate race has sucked up oxygen, despite Trump winning the state in 2024 by double digits. And, the Senate map has kept expanding as Democrats have made gains in other typically red states, forcing Republicans to make critical decisions about where to allocate resources.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republicans have said there are dedicated donors who are backing their effort to help Paxton, as they also try to shore up red seats across the map.
Paxton, in the September meeting with donors, acknowledged Washington’s influence.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign … it’s all coming — you know — from D.C.,” Paxton told donors during a small fundraising event last month, according to the audio.
Top GOP officials have tried to downplay Paxton’s comments. The White House referred Blue Light News to the RNC when asked for comment. The RNC argued Paxton, in the audio, was referring to the super PACs he can’t coordinate with as a candidate.
“This is fake news nonsense mixed with lazy reporting demonstrating a clear ignorance about how super PACs work. President Trump has called Ken Paxton the single greatest attorney general in history and has been clear he will do whatever it takes to make him the next senator from Texas,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement.
Trump, when speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, said he hadn’t seen Paxton’s latest comments. He added that his midterm travel blitz has helped Paxton and other Republican candidates.
“Ken’s doing much better now that I — everybody is — since starting three, four days ago, since starting the rallies. It’s brought a whole new awareness to how great the Republicans are doing, how great the economy is doing,” Trump said, touting investments and manufacturing.
The president last week traveled to Texas and told the crowd that Paxton is a “pain in the ass sometimes” and later acknowledged he’s “a little controversial.” But, he also warned the Texas crowd that Talarico would be “such a horror to your state,” adding, “we need the votes and I’m here for that, and I think we’re going to win.”
Vance also traveled to Texas, where he called Paxton “amazing attorney general and your next senator.”
Still, other Republicans have simply grown resigned to the state of the race, with Paxton needing all the aid he can get.
“There is only so much we can do,” one senior Senate GOP aide said. “And I feel like we’re doing a lot.”
The Paxton campaign told POLITICO it raised $18 million in the third quarter across the campaign and his joint fundraising committees. That’s roughly double his second-quarter total, though the campaign did not provide its cash-on-hand numbers, and Talarico has yet to release his fundraising haul.
Paxton also announced a $20 million ad buy last week — a significant single media investment in the race. But he’s had to rely heavily on Trump, MAGA Inc. and the top Senate GOP super PAC to bail him out.
Republicans have largely leaned on the Senate Leadership Fund, rather than the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC, to keep Paxton afloat. SLF is spending a Texas record-breaking $131 million sum through Oct. 12 and has pledged to continue to spend more through the final weeks of the election.
MAGA Inc. is increasing some spending for Paxton and is expected to hit near $45 million by Oct. 12.
If Paxton were to lose, Trump’s reaction and whether he chooses to distance himself from the rescue effort will be driven by media coverage, said a former Trump fundraiser.
“If the media coverage related to election night and the autopsy a couple days afterwards is brutal towards Trump, like, horrible economy, inflation’s not that much better than the last year of Joe Biden’s … he will lash out,” the person said. “But if the narrative is, it’s a midterm presidential, this is what normally happens … he’ll move on as fast as he can and never talk about Ken Paxton again. It just depends what the coverage looks like post the November election.”
The 2026 House map continues to move further onto GOP terrain. But while Democrats are dreaming big, the GOP insists they can hold the majority.
Score talked to the DCCC’s Deputy Executive Director Will Van Nuys and the NRCC’s Communications Director Will Kiley.
The two operatives chose four under-the-radar races where they’re feeling good about their underdog candidates pulling off an upset. If these races flip, they know they’re having a good night.
“We’re not saying that this won’t be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand,” Kiley said.
“Our job is to make sure that we raise as much as we can to expand this battlefield as far as we can,” Van Nuys said.
DEMOCRATS’ FOUR ‘SLEEPER’ SEATS
CO-05 (Trump +9.1)
Rep. Jeff Crank won this seat by 14 points in 2024 in his third bid for Congress. But Colorado Springs is “trending Democrats’ way” with fast growth of younger and Hispanic populations. That shift, along with Trump’s unpopularity, has Democrats hoping for a flip, Van Nuys says.
IA-02 (Trump +10)
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate has left this Northeastern Iowa seat open for the taking, Van Nuys argues. Frustrations with beef imports, rising gas prices and the popularity of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand have Democrats hoping state Rep. Lindsay James can turn this seat blue.
KY-06 (Trump +15)
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is making it his personal mission to elect his former adviser and federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and flip Senate nominee Rep. Andy Barr’s Lexington-based seat. Dembo released an internal poll in late September showing him with a five-point lead.
WI-01 (Trump +4.5)
Van Nuys says emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman is a “perfect contrast” in the blue-collar district to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, an attorney and former plastics manufacturing executive.
FOUR DISTRICTS WHERE THE GOP THINKS IT CAN SURPRISE
NM-02 (Trump +1.8)
Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell ran four cycles in a row. Now the GOP is betting on a fresh face: Greg Cunningham, a tattooed, motorcycle-driving Marine vet and ex-cop who’s running ads highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the Latino-heavy district.
Republicans are spending big on the race.
Kiley called Cunningham a “badass.”“Greg is a candidate who can continue to capture those voters and keep them coming our way,” he said.
NY-03 (Trump +4.3)
Republican former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri came within four points of defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in 2024, and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman coasted to reelection last fall. Now Blakeman is running for governor, and Kiley says the statewide campaign can push LiPetri over the top in a rematch.
The MAGA Inc.-affiliated No Going Back PAC has dropped a whopping $6 million into the district, with $2 million more from NRCC, though the CLF trimmed its own ad buy there on Tuesday.
“Last cycle, LiPetri came incredibly close with minimal to no outside investment,” Kiley said. “Now he has the investment and institutional support to get the job done.”
AZ-01 (Trump +3.1)
The DCCC’s preferred candidate lost to former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah in the primary in this Phoenix and Scottsdale-area seat, and Kiley says that’s opened the door for the GOP to hold the seat.
“The DCCC is lying if they said that Amish is the candidate they wanted,” Kiley said.
Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker and NFL commentator Jay Feely, and Kiley says Feely’s unique resume will boost him over the edge. Both parties are spending huge sums, with more than $31 million combined earmarked for the race.
NV-03 (Trump +0.7)
Republican Marty O’Donnell was the composer for the music in the popular video game Halo. He’s using that success to pour $3 million into his bid to flip this Las Vegas-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
The personal investments, along with outside GOP spending, eliminate a cash advantage past Democrats enjoyed in the district, Kiley said.
“The resources are coming in to flip this seat because the GOP ecosystem can see how big of an opportunity it is,” he said.
A version of this article first appeared in Blue Light News Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to Blue Light News Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
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