Politics
The top House sleeper races to watch, according to the pros
The 2026 House map continues to move further onto GOP terrain. But while Democrats are dreaming big, the GOP insists they can hold the majority.
Score talked to the DCCC’s Deputy Executive Director Will Van Nuys and the NRCC’s Communications Director Will Kiley.
The two operatives chose four under-the-radar races where they’re feeling good about their underdog candidates pulling off an upset. If these races flip, they know they’re having a good night.
“We’re not saying that this won’t be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand,” Kiley said.
“Our job is to make sure that we raise as much as we can to expand this battlefield as far as we can,” Van Nuys said.
DEMOCRATS’ FOUR ‘SLEEPER’ SEATS
CO-05 (Trump +9.1)
Rep. Jeff Crank won this seat by 14 points in 2024 in his third bid for Congress. But Colorado Springs is “trending Democrats’ way” with fast growth of younger and Hispanic populations. That shift, along with Trump’s unpopularity, has Democrats hoping for a flip, Van Nuys says.
IA-02 (Trump +10)
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate has left this Northeastern Iowa seat open for the taking, Van Nuys argues. Frustrations with beef imports, rising gas prices and the popularity of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand have Democrats hoping state Rep. Lindsay James can turn this seat blue.
KY-06 (Trump +15)
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is making it his personal mission to elect his former adviser and federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and flip Senate nominee Rep. Andy Barr’s Lexington-based seat. Dembo released an internal poll in late September showing him with a five-point lead.
WI-01 (Trump +4.5)
Van Nuys says emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman is a “perfect contrast” in the blue-collar district to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, an attorney and former plastics manufacturing executive.
FOUR DISTRICTS WHERE THE GOP THINKS IT CAN SURPRISE
NM-02 (Trump +1.8)
Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell ran four cycles in a row. Now the GOP is betting on a fresh face: Greg Cunningham, a tattooed, motorcycle-driving Marine vet and ex-cop who’s running ads highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the Latino-heavy district.
Republicans are spending big on the race.
Kiley called Cunningham a “badass.”“Greg is a candidate who can continue to capture those voters and keep them coming our way,” he said.
NY-03 (Trump +4.3)
Republican former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri came within four points of defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in 2024, and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman coasted to reelection last fall. Now Blakeman is running for governor, and Kiley says the statewide campaign can push LiPetri over the top in a rematch.
The MAGA Inc.-affiliated No Going Back PAC has dropped a whopping $6 million into the district, with $2 million more from NRCC, though the CLF trimmed its own ad buy there on Tuesday.
“Last cycle, LiPetri came incredibly close with minimal to no outside investment,” Kiley said. “Now he has the investment and institutional support to get the job done.”
AZ-01 (Trump +3.1)
The DCCC’s preferred candidate lost to former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah in the primary in this Phoenix and Scottsdale-area seat, and Kiley says that’s opened the door for the GOP to hold the seat.
“The DCCC is lying if they said that Amish is the candidate they wanted,” Kiley said.
Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker and NFL commentator Jay Feely, and Kiley says Feely’s unique resume will boost him over the edge. Both parties are spending huge sums, with more than $31 million combined earmarked for the race.
NV-03 (Trump +0.7)
Republican Marty O’Donnell was the composer for the music in the popular video game Halo. He’s using that success to pour $3 million into his bid to flip this Las Vegas-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
The personal investments, along with outside GOP spending, eliminate a cash advantage past Democrats enjoyed in the district, Kiley said.
“The resources are coming in to flip this seat because the GOP ecosystem can see how big of an opportunity it is,” he said.
A version of this article first appeared in Blue Light News Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to Blue Light News Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
National Republicans have spent months trying to rescue Ken Paxton. He’s complicating that effort.
Tensions are brewing with some Republicans after Blue Light News published Paxton’s closed-door comments that “D.C.” Republicans were largely controlling his race.
“He is welcome to raise his own money and say whatever he wants,” said one Republican involved in the Paxton rescue effort, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “In fact, if he did that, he’d probably be winning right now and we wouldn’t need to spend all this money.”
Senate Republicans and top operatives didn’t want to be in this position in the first place. Many had warned that the Trump effort to unseat Sen. John Cornyn and back Paxton in the primary would cost Republicans hundreds of millions to drag Paxton across the finish line in the general election. Cornyn and Senate GOP groups spent millions of dollars on ads during the primary attacking Paxton over his series of scandals and warning he was a flawed candidate.
Since then, the usual crowd of never-Paxton types has expanded into a wider circle of frustrated Republicans who are irked by the effort it’s taking to boost the scandal-plagued Senate candidate. And Paxton saying he doesn’t control his campaign messaging — alongside his remarks that President Donald Trump’s midterm convention hurt him politically — isn’t helping.
Paxton also complained about the drag of the Iran war and high prices on his campaign in another closed-door recording that Axios published Wednesday.
“Beggars can’t be choosers. He can try to raise federal money at a level that is necessary to save his candidacy at this point but his arms don’t reach that high,” said a Texas-based GOP consultant who’s closely monitoring multiple races. “As usual, he communicates something that is unhelpful, that is undisciplined, that is politically self-harmful and like most things, lacks any gratitude whatsoever.”
The top Senate GOP super PAC, Trump’s aligned MAGA Inc. operation and other Republicans are pumping more than $200 million into the race to salvage Paxton’s campaign against Democrat James Talarico. Trump allies say they have worked hard to shore up Paxton, suggesting they’ve pushed donations toward the campaign and the larger GOP Super PAC effort to avoid disaster in the Lone Star state. Trump plans to travel to Texas for the second time Wednesday to boost Paxton.
Paxton allies have brushed off his latest closed-door comments, saying he was referring to GOP super PACs he’s not allowed to coordinate with as a candidate.
The Paxton campaign did not respond to a request for comment, though campaign adviser Nick Maddux said in response to POLITICO’s initial report of the audio that “AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority which is why he’s on the ground every day.”
But another Republican, a Trump ally working on the fundraising effort, said the national intervention isn’t overstepping. That person said the messaging guidance from the national GOP is standard for major Senate races and that Paxton “needs the help.”
One national GOP operative involved in the Texas Senate race noted that the attorney general’s lackluster fundraising early on left him vulnerable to Talarico’s attacks throughout the summer — especially over Paxton’s series of “self-inflicted” scandals, which have made him “toxic” with key voting blocs in the deep red state.
“We warned them about this,” the GOP operative said.
The Texas Senate race has sucked up oxygen, despite Trump winning the state in 2024 by double digits. And, the Senate map has kept expanding as Democrats have made gains in other typically red states, forcing Republicans to make critical decisions about where to allocate resources.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republicans have said there are dedicated donors who are backing their effort to help Paxton, as they also try to shore up red seats across the map.
Paxton, in the September meeting with donors, acknowledged Washington’s influence.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign … it’s all coming — you know — from D.C.,” Paxton told donors during a small fundraising event last month, according to the audio.
Top GOP officials have tried to downplay Paxton’s comments. The White House referred Blue Light News to the RNC when asked for comment. The RNC argued Paxton, in the audio, was referring to the super PACs he can’t coordinate with as a candidate.
“This is fake news nonsense mixed with lazy reporting demonstrating a clear ignorance about how super PACs work. President Trump has called Ken Paxton the single greatest attorney general in history and has been clear he will do whatever it takes to make him the next senator from Texas,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement.
Trump, when speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday, said he hadn’t seen Paxton’s latest comments. He added that his midterm travel blitz has helped Paxton and other Republican candidates.
“Ken’s doing much better now that I — everybody is — since starting three, four days ago, since starting the rallies. It’s brought a whole new awareness to how great the Republicans are doing, how great the economy is doing,” Trump said, touting investments and manufacturing.
The president last week traveled to Texas and told the crowd that Paxton is a “pain in the ass sometimes” and later acknowledged he’s “a little controversial.” But, he also warned the Texas crowd that Talarico would be “such a horror to your state,” adding, “we need the votes and I’m here for that, and I think we’re going to win.”
Vance also traveled to Texas, where he called Paxton “amazing attorney general and your next senator.”
Still, other Republicans have simply grown resigned to the state of the race, with Paxton needing all the aid he can get.
“There is only so much we can do,” one senior Senate GOP aide said. “And I feel like we’re doing a lot.”
The Paxton campaign told POLITICO it raised $18 million in the third quarter across the campaign and his joint fundraising committees. That’s roughly double his second-quarter total, though the campaign did not provide its cash-on-hand numbers, and Talarico has yet to release his fundraising haul.
Paxton also announced a $20 million ad buy last week — a significant single media investment in the race. But he’s had to rely heavily on Trump, MAGA Inc. and the top Senate GOP super PAC to bail him out.
Republicans have largely leaned on the Senate Leadership Fund, rather than the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC, to keep Paxton afloat. SLF is spending a Texas record-breaking $131 million sum through Oct. 12 and has pledged to continue to spend more through the final weeks of the election.
MAGA Inc. is increasing some spending for Paxton and is expected to hit near $45 million by Oct. 12.
If Paxton were to lose, Trump’s reaction and whether he chooses to distance himself from the rescue effort will be driven by media coverage, said a former Trump fundraiser.
“If the media coverage related to election night and the autopsy a couple days afterwards is brutal towards Trump, like, horrible economy, inflation’s not that much better than the last year of Joe Biden’s … he will lash out,” the person said. “But if the narrative is, it’s a midterm presidential, this is what normally happens … he’ll move on as fast as he can and never talk about Ken Paxton again. It just depends what the coverage looks like post the November election.”
Leaders of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council knew it would be hard to get Ken Paxton to show up to their Senate town hall event. So, they turned to an unexpected ally: Sen. Ted Cruz.
Javier Palomarez, the council’s president and CEO, needed help since his own background – as both a Democrat and longtime ally of Paxton’s rival in the primary, Sen. John Cornyn – wouldn’t appeal to the Texas attorney general.
Cruz, however, was eager to step in. Soon, Palomarez was discussing logistics for the town hall with Paxton’s team; Paxton joined the event last week.
“We needed to find common ground and people that he trusted, that I trusted … and that clearly was Ted Cruz,” Palomarez said. “I don’t agree with Ted on a litany of shit, but at the end of the day, the guy’s always been a good partner to me and to the small business community.”
Cruz’s involvement hints at the significant behind-the-scenes role he is playing in this year’s high-stakes Texas Senate race — part-time adviser, part-time bundler, full-time believer that Paxton will pull out a win and keep Cruz from representing Texas alongside a Democrat.
Paxton’s inner circle is dotted with longtime Cruz allies, and Cruz’s aid could further cement his position as a Texas kingmaker in retiring GOP Sen. John Cornyn’s absence, earn new allies and boost his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 presidential bid. But if Paxton fails, it could be a black eye for Cruz.
“It is absolutely critical that Texas stay red, that Republicans keep a majority in the U.S. Senate and the House, and that we elect Ken Paxton instead of James Talarico,” Cruz said in an interview. “And so I am all in.”
Paxton’s campaign declined to comment for this story.
For decades, Cornyn has been the gatekeeper to Texas’ GOP donor class. But his loss has put Cruz even more at the center of Texas’ deep-pocketed donor community, letting him flex muscles first developed during his 2016 presidential run as Paxton tries to hold off Talarico and his fundraising machine. Paxton raised $18 million in the last quarter, some of those donations coming from first-time donors introduced to him by Cruz.
“Ted doesn’t go through a meeting in Texas where he’s not telling donors they’ve got to get on board,” said one person close to both Cruz and Paxton, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Cruz has regularly campaigned alongside Paxton and frequently jabs Talarico on his popular podcast. His super PAC has gone on air with anti-Talarico advertising. And in addition to greasing the rails with his big-money donors in the Lone Star State, he’s acting as an informal adviser, regularly speaking withPaxton, according to two people familiar with their conversations.The political orbits of Cruz and Paxton have significant overlap. Axiom Strategies — the GOP firm run by Jeff Roe, who led Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign — has long worked with both men. Nick Maddux, senior adviser to the Paxton campaign, was a key staffer in Cruz’s 2018 and 2024 reelection efforts. Sam Cooper, a longtime Cruz adviser, is now a senior strategist for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC.
Cruz stayed neutral during the messy primary between Cornyn and Paxton. He came off the sidelines after the runoff.
“Ted was one of the first ones that understood that, hey, this guy just got hit with $200 million of negative advertising. He’s running against an opponent who’s going to be well-funded,” said Cooper. “He’s going to need some help.”
Within a week of Paxton’s primary runoff victory in May, Cruz emceed a Washington fundraiser for Paxton, urging attendees to come together and support the Republican nominee. Days later, Cruz joined Paxton for a Texas fly-around, stopping in Dallas, Houston and Midland all in one day, to meet with donors. Cruz said they secured $3 million in donations on that day.
Cruz has presented himself as an emissary between more traditional GOP donors and Paxton’s hardline MAGA world.
“The case I’ve been making to donors who previously supported John Cornyn is, at this point, it’s a binary choice, and I think the choice is very clear,” Cruz said, noting he’s had “hundreds of conversations” with donors. “Many, if not most, of the longtime Paxton donors are also supporters of mine, but many, if not most, of the longtime Cornyn donors are supporters of mine, as well. And so I do think I’m able to bridge those two worlds.”
But Cruz’s involvement also carries some risk. Paxton is trailing in most recent polls, and Democrats are increasingly hopeful this is the cycle they finally flip a Texas Senate seat. If Paxton goes down, he could stifle Cruz’s momentum ahead of 2028, when other Republican hopefuls may attempt to lay the blame at Cruz’s feet.
“This is smart on Ted’s part,” said one longtime Texas Republican strategist not affiliated with either man, granted anonymity to speak openly. “It cements him with Paxton supporters as being the guy who stood up for him, and it allows him to expand his reach and have a greater claim on having a unified Texas behind him if he makes a run in 2028.”
If Paxton loses, “he put his best foot forward, and it’s going to be Paxton’s fault that he lost, not Ted Cruz’s,” the person said.
Cruz’s super PAC, Truth and Courage, was one of the first to go up backing Paxton, reserving over $2 million on air with an anti-Talarico ad, according to data from tracking firm AdImpact — though that spend has since been swamped by major buys from the Senate Leadership Fund’s PAC and other pro-Republican groups.
Cruz has hosted or participated in several fundraisers for Paxton, both in person and on Zoom. One of them — a fundraiser hosted by Cruz’s PAC on the sidelines of the Republican midterm convention, a confab Paxton later said “dropped our numbers” — featured dozens of donors crammed into an apartment in a glitzy uptown Dallas high-rise, in such close quarters that some of Paxton’s staffers were relegated to work on the balcony.
“It was incredibly well attended,” recalled Rep. Randy Fine (R-Florida), who spoke at the fundraiser. “You couldn’t move.”
AI safety groups aren’t buying OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s shifting stance on political spending in the midterms.
They’re wary of his concession that campaign cash from industry-aligned groups, like the OpenAI-aligned Leading the Future super PAC, may have inadvertently backfired. Instead, they’re pushing for stronger commitments to downsize the flood of money — and for candidates to reject any support from pro-AI groups.
“I won’t believe that they are actually changing their strategy, or their goals I should say, unless and until they do,” said Democratic New York assemblymember Alex Bores, who emerged as a key voice among AI regulation advocates after Leading the Future and other groups spent $8 million to tank his House campaign. He launched a $30 million effort to unify Democrats on AI policy last month.
Altman’s stark acknowledgement to Blue Light News follows a New York Times report that revealed OpenAI President Greg Brockman backed out of injecting more cash into Leading the Future earlier this summer, calling the super PAC’s efforts a “distraction” from the company’s mission. The pause is notable as Americans grow increasingly anxious about the risks the technology poses, and lawmakers scramble to figure out how to approach the emerging tech.
Still, some critics are not taking Altman’s concession or Brockman’s pullback as a sign of a fundamental change in the industry’s campaign strategy — at least not yet.
“What I read it as is they are no longer — or Greg Brockman in particular is not — going to fund Leading the Future,” said Bores. “Does that mean that the industry is not going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars trying to influence policy and get benefits on their way? No.”
Bores insisted that candidates should think twice before accepting financial support from Leading the Future specifically: “An elected official of either party taking money from Leading the Future should be viewed with incredible suspect.”
Guardrails Alliance political director Charlie Blaettler agreed, saying OpenAI leadership deciding to distance themselves from Leading the Future should be the final straw for Democrats backed by the group.
“If it’s too toxic for Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, why are Democrats still taking their money?” he said.
Leading the Future and rival super PAC network Public First — which advocates for AI regulation and is largely funded by OpenAI competitor Anthropic — together spent over $70 million through super PACs this cycle, according to FEC data.
Other pro-regulation advocates have jumped in with their own political spending, with groups like the Guardrails Alliance — a nonprofit and super PAC that launched in June — raising $5 million and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to support Bores. Some of Guardrails Alliance’s money came from OpenAI employees pushing back against Leading the Future, which is funded in large part by OpenAI president Brockman, his wife Anna, early OpenAI investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and their venture capital firm a16z. They have contributed a combined $75 million to Leading the Future.
Leading the Future and a16z declined to comment.
Some Democrats who were backed in their primaries by Leading the Future — like Reps. Ritchie Torres and Joe Morelle of New York and Jared Moskowitz of Florida — declined to say whether they would disavow the Leading the Future cash that boosted them in their races.
“An outside AI PAC spent money in the 4th district during the primary, but they didn’t donate directly to my campaign,” Rep. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), who was backed by a nearly $300,000 investment from Leading the Future, said in a statement to Blue Light News.
She did not address whether she would disavow the group and its spending: “I’ve been working with labor leaders and advocates to put workers first when it comes to AI. We need clear federal guardrails to protect workers, safeguard our planet, prevent utility rate spikes and give consumers a voice.”
Even if candidates decide to further distance themselves from the industry’s spending, some pro-guardrails advocates said the onus still lies with figures like Altman to put a stop to — or significantly decrease — the influx of money altogether.
“[Altman was] basically saying, ‘These are the rules of the game, and I can’t really change them, and it’s not in my job description,’” said Brendan Steinhauser, who leads AI safety group The Alliance for Secure AI Action. “Of course he’s saying that, but they could do a unilateral disarmament or encourage the other labs to stop giving, and maybe it’d be just like pacing the frontier — maybe people could pace political giving.”
Former Democratic Rep. Brad Carson, who co-founded Public First, said he would be open to engaging in talks with Leading the Future about pacing or scaling back the industry’s political spending — but only if so-called AI “accelerationists” are serious about backing off. He called out Andreessen and Horowitz who have emerged as the biggest known spenders in this year’s midterm elections and were early investors in OpenAI.
“As long as these accelerationists have a desire to spend tens and tens, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, there is probably a need for a Public First,” said Carson, who also leads the nonprofit group Americans for Responsible Innovation. “So even if Brockman drops out, Andreessen and Horowitz can just drop another 50 million if they felt like it, and I wouldn’t want to be disarmed against that.”
Brendan Bordelon contributed to this report.
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