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Why Mark Warner is sitting out the shutdown

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Not so long ago, if there was a bipartisan group getting together to solve a problem in the Senate, you could count on Mark Warner to be involved.

The Virginia Democrat was part of the “talking stick” gang that helped quickly end a brief 2018 funding lapse. He was a part of a crew that helped cut a major infrastructure deal under former President Joe Biden, and he’s currently working with Republicans to forge an agreement on cryptocurrency regulation.

But as his colleagues hunt for a way out of the 31-day-and-counting government shutdown, Warner this time is hanging on the sidelines.

It’s a twist not only because of Warner’s history as a card-carrying bipartisan “gang” member who would frequently host gatherings at his Old Town Alexandria home. It’s also because of who he represents: His home state has the third-highest number of civilian government workers, plus tens of thousands more in military uniforms. Lawmakers from the Washington area have historically been voices of moderation urging both parties to avoid brinkmanship that could harm the federal workforce.

Yet as the shutdown’s toll has mounted, Warner and his home-state teammate, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, have stuck closely to their party’s line — sounding the alarm over the impending expiration of key federal health insurance subsidies and blaming the impending lapse of nutrition assistance on Republicans.

“He’s always been one of those guys who says, ‘I’ll be part of any gang,’ the sort of ultimate bipartisan leader,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.). “I think he’s just really frustrated and unhappy with the situation, the shutdown, with what’s happening to Virginians. … I think it just pisses him off.”

In Warner’s estimation, what sets this shutdown apart is his belief that it won’t be solved by a Senate gang, but by one person: President Donald Trump.

Warner publicly aired his concerns this week when he gabbed to reporters alongside Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), another bipartisan gang regular who has been involved in the current rank-and-file talks.

After she mentioned the virtues of cross-aisle conversations and the importance of trust, Warner said while Murkowski might feel free to negotiate without Trump’s blessing, “some of the others would have to get a permission slip.”

“I really do think, unlike in the past, you’ve probably got to get the president deeply engaged,” he added.

Warner’s office declined a request for an extended interview. But he confirmed in a brief exchange Thursday that he has not joined the pending shutdown talks — pointing to both his belief that Trump is the key player in ending the stalemate as well as his focus on helping land a cryptocurrency deal.

But there’s also a larger backdrop to Warner’s withdrawal — how the Senate’s partisan fault lines have hardened during the second Trump presidency.

Senate Republicans have repeatedly sidelined Democrats this year at major points, passing a sweeping domestic policy bill along party lines this summer that also included a debt ceiling hike — sidestepping a default cliff that has previously forced bipartisan compromise.

In March, Republicans drafted a stopgap funding bill on their own and then essentially dared Democrats to shut down the government. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer flinched then, but one big hint that Democrats wouldn’t be up for a repeat was that Warner did not join him at that time in helping to advance the shutdown-averting legislation. In a statement with Kaine, Warner explained that the stopgap gave a “blank check to Donald Trump and Elon Musk to continue attacking the federal workforce.”

Now he’s repeatedly voted against the latest House-passed spending patch, which would fund the government until Nov. 21. Warner has backup from fellow Virginia Democrats, who say Trump’s willingness to take a sledgehammer to the federal government this year is affecting what they are hearing back home.

“They’re viewing the shutdown sort of as a continuity of the Donald Trump term two status quo,” Kaine said. He summed up his constituents’ feelings as, “It’s good that you are fighting finally because we’ve been on the receiving end of this since Jan. 20, and it’s time somebody stands up to this guy.”

Warner, unlike Kaine, is up for reelection next year, and political prognosticators widely expect him to easily keep his seat. But Warner, 70, has taken nothing for granted politically after narrowly squeaking out a win by less than a percentage point in 2014. In 2020, Warner won by 12 points.

These days, Warner is leaning into his willingness to fight Trump and calling himself one of Republicans’ “top targets” in his fundraising efforts, even though there’s little to suggest he’s worried about a razor-thin November contest.

“I am doing everything in my power to stop Trump and his unelected co-president from overhauling the federal government so they can enrich themselves and leave Americans in the dust. But that makes me one of their top targets,” Warner wrote in one recent online fundraising solicitation.

Warner has also been sharply critical of Trump and his administration on various other fronts. As the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, he held a lengthy news conference Thursday to lambast the administration for briefing Senate Republicans on recent military strikes on alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean but not Democrats.

“The one area that I thought we could maintain some level of comity … was around national security, but not from this crowd,” he said, describing the difference between Trump’s first and second terms as “night and day.”

Bob Holsworth, a longtime Virginia political analyst, said Warner’s more “aggressively critical” stance toward Trump is part of a long-running political evolution.

“It reflects the changes that have occurred nationally and certainly in Virginia,” Holsworth said. “Virginia … clearly on state-wide elections tilts blue.”

Warner has also embraced a push led by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) in recent years to get Democratic lawmakers more comfortable delivering their message online, including by cutting shareable short-form videos. In one recent shutdown-themed clip, Warner sought to debunk “as many Republican lies as I can in 90 seconds.”

And he leaned into social media to dispel rumors being circulated from some Republicans who thought the in-cycle senator would quickly relent on the shutdown and vote for the House-passed stopgap. “Not caving,” he wrote on X.

Beyer predicted that if the shutdown does play into Warner’s race next year it would only help him.

“They’re never going to assign blame on the shutdown to him — [Republicans] have the White House, they have the Senate, they have the House,” he said. “Regardless of the national landscape, he’s been a constructive part of our polity and our economy now for a generation.”

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Congress

GOP senators urge Trump to find Iran exit plan as energy prices rise: ‘The clock is ticking’

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President Donald Trump promised a quick end to the war in Iran, but the ongoing conflict has kept energy costs high — and some Senate Republicans are starting to go public with their concerns.

GOP lawmakers who already feared November would be an increasingly tough battle are trying to nudge the president toward clearly defining his endgame after a surge in oil, gas and fertilizer prices. Trump warned the sticker shock might not completely recede by the time the November elections roll around, though news Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen could begin to bring some relief if the agreement sticks.

Several GOP senators are warning the president could face growing pushback, including them not supporting military action against Iran after the conflict hits the 60-day mark at the end of the month, if he doesn’t articulate his plan. The White House could try to invoke a 30-day extension for national security reasons.

“I hope that we are arriving at an exit strategy here to bring this to a close to preserve our security interests and bring down the cost of gasoline,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told reporters this week, adding that the “clock is ticking” on the war.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said in an interview that she and a group of other senators are in the process of drafting an authorization for the use of military force against Iran, which would lay out when and how Trump could use force. She pointed to the 60-day threshold as a possible deadline for hammering out text, saying it would be “helpful” for it to be done by then.

Even senior Republicans are warning that if the administration wants Congress to greenlight tens of billions in additional war funding, Republicans are going to need to know more about the president’s ultimate Iran strategy beforehand.

“I think our members are going to be very interested in what next steps are,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, predicting that the administration’s forthcoming Iran war spending ask “will be an important inflection point if and when the administration submits their request.”

Thune, like most congressional Republicans, has been supportive of the administration’s Iran campaign but said the impact on gas and fertilizer prices is “a big deal” back in his home state of South Dakota.

“We’re in planting season so if you didn’t buy fertilizer ahead of time, you’re really feeling it, and obviously fuel is a critically important part of production, agriculture,” Thune said this week, prior to the Strait’s reopening.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) predicted his party would ultimately keep the Senate majority, but said the Iran war and the related spike in pricing could be a drag when they are already facing “headwinds.”

“The president has to help us get the vote out,” Tillis said. “But the base alone is not going to be able to do it. The way we’re going to get the other ones is addressing the energy challenges, particularly the price at the pump and some of the other affordability issues.”

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), in an interview before Friday’s announcement, predicted that prices would come down after the strait’s reopening and that it would matter the most in September, when swing voters start tuning in for the midterms.

“If we’re going into September and, even more, October … with super high — you know gas prices over $4 — I mean it’s going to be a problem,” Cramer said.

There were early signs of celebration from Senate Republicans Friday over the announcement that the strait had reopened, even if it’s potentially only temporarily.

“Very glad to hear the Strait of Hormuz is open, at least for the remainder of the ceasefire,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) wrote on X.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), also took a victory lap: “Will Dems be making comments about the massive drop in oil prices?” he asked.

Trump has suggested that he is eager to negotiate a deal to end the conflict. And GOP lawmakers have largely deferred to Trump so far — including defeating attempts in both chambers this week to limit the president’s ability to carry out additional military action without Congress.

But even with oil shipments through the strait set to resume now, some Republicans say generally, they want to see the president focusing more on affordability issues.

“I would like to see the president spend 70 percent of his time talking about all the things that we and he have done to reduce the cost of living and 30 percent of his time on other important stuff,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said in an interview.

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GOP hard-liners threaten to tank FISA vote

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House GOP hardliners are threatening to tank the FISA rule shortly on the House floor as Speaker Mike Johnson tries to force through a five year extension, according to four people granted anonymity to speak about plans not yet public.

They’re livid over the “inexplicable 5 year extension, the fake warrant requirement, and the walk back of the promise from this afternoon to include CBDC,” according to one of the people, referring negotiations to prohibit a central bank digital currency.

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‘The original sin:’ Hill Republicans blame White House for slow-walking FISA sales pitch

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A messy GOP battle over a key government spy authority boiled over in the House this week — but the crisis was months in the making.

White House officials and Republican Hill leaders have tried to pressure GOP hard-liners into approving a clean, 18-month extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that President Donald Trump demanded. But amid a GOP rebellion on Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday afternoon punted a vote on the measure for the second day in a row.

The program expires Monday night. Senators went home for the weekend as Johnson continued to pursue a compromise with the holdouts for an extension as long as three years with reforms, and raced to hold a vote.

Now, the finger-pointing among Republicans is rampant and temperatures are running high.

A band of House ultraconservatives — who have long been concerned that warrantless government surveillance of foreign individuals could sweep up data on Americans — shot down Trump and GOP leaders’ long-held plans for the 18-month extension with no reforms earlier this week.

“A clean extension ain’t going to move on the floor,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, one of the head House GOP holdouts, warned earlier this week.

In interviews with more than two dozen Republican lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill involved in the talks, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely about the contentious policy debate, the consensus is that the White House is largely responsible for the current breakdown as GOP factions snipe and assign blame.

“This is why we shouldn’t wait until the last minute on these things,” one House Republican fumed Thursday. A congressional GOP aide added, “The White House was too late to come to a decision. That was the original sin.”

A senior White House official disputed the characterization from some Hill Republicans that the administration had taken too long to plead their case. They pointed to a briefing in the Situation Room months ago with Republican lawmakers, during which “the president heard arguments on both sides of the issue.”

The official added, “We’ve had multiple briefings from senior officials, both on the House and Senate side, about the desirability of this program. Again, going back months ago.”

Trump told House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) that he wanted a clean extension, without reforms, in February. The president arrived at this position, a second White House official said, after “the administration completed a policy process through the interagency and advised POTUS that a clean extension was the best course and solicited views on length from Blue Light News.”

There was also coordination between the White House and Capitol Hill, according to three people familiar and the senior White House official: Johnson requested the reauthorization run for 18 months, and Trump agreed.

The administration succeeded in convincing Jordan, who had previously pushed for changes to Section 702, to publicly support a clean extension following a White House meeting on the subject.

But ultraconservatives on Capitol Hill were harder to convince, with some House Republicans correctly predicting two months ago they were going to have issues as the vote drew nearer. Trump has forced those hard-liners to cave in recent months on other fights, but the spy powers legislation was one area where members have not been as willing to relent.

While Trump officials made outreach to members at least two months ago, Hill engagement ramped up in the days leading up to the scheduled vote. That has included appeals to lawmakers from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Deputy CIA Director Michael Ellis and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, according to five people. Ellis has made personal phone calls to members, according to two people familiar with the pressure campaign.

White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, White House Legislative Affairs chief James Braid and other legislative affairs officials have also been calling individual House Republicans and working through negotiation details, according to six other people with direct knowledge of the conversations.

Noticeably absent from this outreach is Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Her office plays a statutory role in overseeing Section 702 and has historically been a key proponent of the powerful spy powers.

Gabbard in early February expressed concerns to Trump about reauthorizing the statute without additional privacy guardrails, as Blue Light News reported earlier Thursday, though her appeal appears to have been unsuccessful.

And while the administration’s position on Section 702 came into focus in February, there were signs earlier in the month that its position had not fully crystallized. Officials meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee at that time refused to divulge the White House’s stance on extending the surveillance power and adding reforms, according to five people with knowledge of the meeting. The exchange frustrated Republicans and Democrats on the panel, who are generally supportive of the surveillance program.

Due to a quirk in the law, the administration will still be able to operate the program for nearly a year even if it is not renewed, and privacy advocates have argued that Monday is a false deadline. But without the law on the books, communications providers like Google and AT&T, which the government tasks to surveil foreign messages, could stop complying with those orders.

But White House officials want an extension codified now, all the same. They have been arguing in conversations with lawmakers that the country is at war and national security is paramount amid threats from Iran. Therefore, they say, hardliners should fall in line to back the clean extension without delay, according to five people involved in the conversations.

“The program is critical for the United States military to listen to the conversations of foreign terrorists abroad while we are engaged in a military operation in Iran. That’s what we’ve been telling individuals, as well as the elevated threat levels around the world, as well as the threat from Mexican drug cartels,” the senior White House official said.

Two groups of House GOP hard-liners, after being summoned by Trump Tuesday night, met with officials at the White House. But some of the Republicans declined the invitation.“I’ve heard everything that the executive has to say on FISA,” Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said in an interview that evening. That meeting, however, marked a shift: Those House Republicans who went to the White House alongside GOP leaders — among them Roy and Reps. Keith Self of Texas, Byron Donalds of Florida, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Warren Davidson of Ohio — took the opportunity to begin negotiations about a framework for a possible agreement around the use of warrants to access certain information.

The discussions included how the White House and GOP leadership needed to make good on a months-old promise to advance legislation that would ban a central bank digital currency. Enough House GOP holdouts late Thursday evening were threatening to still tank the procedural vote to advance the extension if the White House didn’t address the digital currency matter, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. “Unless it’s included, there’s enough votes to kill the rule,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said in an interview Thursday afternoon. But other Republicans, White House officials and Senate GOP leadership are warning that attaching the measure directly would tank the FISA bill.

In exchange for making these concessions, GOP leaders and the White House have been pushing for a Section 702 extension that’s longer than 18 months and closer to three years.

The senior White House official also said Thursday the administration has “focused in on potentially having conversations about reforms to the program that we think would strengthen protections for American civil liberties … those conversations are ongoing.”

Jordan, meanwhile, has been helping build support for a clean extension by privately telling some Republicans that, if they can pass this 18-month clean extension now, they could potentially work on warrant reforms later, according to three people with direct knowledge of the discussions. That’s raised some eyebrows internally among House Republicans.

The House delays are leaving barely any time for the Senate to act. Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Thursday that he’s already started having conversations with his own members about what they would need to clear a FISA extension Monday.

Ultimately, even if GOP leaders strike a deal on changes to the current proposed extension, it could risk support for reauthorization among key Democrats, who Republicans will need to pass the final legislation in a narrowly-divided House. While some House Democrats are expected to help Republicans get the final bill across the finish line — including top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut — Democratic leaders have so far declined to shore up the votes for any fast-tracked process.

“I am deeply skeptical of a straightforward extension,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday, adding he told Johnson a few days ago there was “great Democratic skepticism” on a clean extension.

One Democratic Hill aide said Johnson and Trump did far too little to coordinate their pitch with Democrats, who carried a razor-thin vote to re-up the law in 2024.

“They never came to us,” the aide said.

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