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Why Mark Warner is sitting out the shutdown

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Not so long ago, if there was a bipartisan group getting together to solve a problem in the Senate, you could count on Mark Warner to be involved.

The Virginia Democrat was part of the “talking stick” gang that helped quickly end a brief 2018 funding lapse. He was a part of a crew that helped cut a major infrastructure deal under former President Joe Biden, and he’s currently working with Republicans to forge an agreement on cryptocurrency regulation.

But as his colleagues hunt for a way out of the 31-day-and-counting government shutdown, Warner this time is hanging on the sidelines.

It’s a twist not only because of Warner’s history as a card-carrying bipartisan “gang” member who would frequently host gatherings at his Old Town Alexandria home. It’s also because of who he represents: His home state has the third-highest number of civilian government workers, plus tens of thousands more in military uniforms. Lawmakers from the Washington area have historically been voices of moderation urging both parties to avoid brinkmanship that could harm the federal workforce.

Yet as the shutdown’s toll has mounted, Warner and his home-state teammate, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, have stuck closely to their party’s line — sounding the alarm over the impending expiration of key federal health insurance subsidies and blaming the impending lapse of nutrition assistance on Republicans.

“He’s always been one of those guys who says, ‘I’ll be part of any gang,’ the sort of ultimate bipartisan leader,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.). “I think he’s just really frustrated and unhappy with the situation, the shutdown, with what’s happening to Virginians. … I think it just pisses him off.”

In Warner’s estimation, what sets this shutdown apart is his belief that it won’t be solved by a Senate gang, but by one person: President Donald Trump.

Warner publicly aired his concerns this week when he gabbed to reporters alongside Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), another bipartisan gang regular who has been involved in the current rank-and-file talks.

After she mentioned the virtues of cross-aisle conversations and the importance of trust, Warner said while Murkowski might feel free to negotiate without Trump’s blessing, “some of the others would have to get a permission slip.”

“I really do think, unlike in the past, you’ve probably got to get the president deeply engaged,” he added.

Warner’s office declined a request for an extended interview. But he confirmed in a brief exchange Thursday that he has not joined the pending shutdown talks — pointing to both his belief that Trump is the key player in ending the stalemate as well as his focus on helping land a cryptocurrency deal.

But there’s also a larger backdrop to Warner’s withdrawal — how the Senate’s partisan fault lines have hardened during the second Trump presidency.

Senate Republicans have repeatedly sidelined Democrats this year at major points, passing a sweeping domestic policy bill along party lines this summer that also included a debt ceiling hike — sidestepping a default cliff that has previously forced bipartisan compromise.

In March, Republicans drafted a stopgap funding bill on their own and then essentially dared Democrats to shut down the government. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer flinched then, but one big hint that Democrats wouldn’t be up for a repeat was that Warner did not join him at that time in helping to advance the shutdown-averting legislation. In a statement with Kaine, Warner explained that the stopgap gave a “blank check to Donald Trump and Elon Musk to continue attacking the federal workforce.”

Now he’s repeatedly voted against the latest House-passed spending patch, which would fund the government until Nov. 21. Warner has backup from fellow Virginia Democrats, who say Trump’s willingness to take a sledgehammer to the federal government this year is affecting what they are hearing back home.

“They’re viewing the shutdown sort of as a continuity of the Donald Trump term two status quo,” Kaine said. He summed up his constituents’ feelings as, “It’s good that you are fighting finally because we’ve been on the receiving end of this since Jan. 20, and it’s time somebody stands up to this guy.”

Warner, unlike Kaine, is up for reelection next year, and political prognosticators widely expect him to easily keep his seat. But Warner, 70, has taken nothing for granted politically after narrowly squeaking out a win by less than a percentage point in 2014. In 2020, Warner won by 12 points.

These days, Warner is leaning into his willingness to fight Trump and calling himself one of Republicans’ “top targets” in his fundraising efforts, even though there’s little to suggest he’s worried about a razor-thin November contest.

“I am doing everything in my power to stop Trump and his unelected co-president from overhauling the federal government so they can enrich themselves and leave Americans in the dust. But that makes me one of their top targets,” Warner wrote in one recent online fundraising solicitation.

Warner has also been sharply critical of Trump and his administration on various other fronts. As the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, he held a lengthy news conference Thursday to lambast the administration for briefing Senate Republicans on recent military strikes on alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean but not Democrats.

“The one area that I thought we could maintain some level of comity … was around national security, but not from this crowd,” he said, describing the difference between Trump’s first and second terms as “night and day.”

Bob Holsworth, a longtime Virginia political analyst, said Warner’s more “aggressively critical” stance toward Trump is part of a long-running political evolution.

“It reflects the changes that have occurred nationally and certainly in Virginia,” Holsworth said. “Virginia … clearly on state-wide elections tilts blue.”

Warner has also embraced a push led by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) in recent years to get Democratic lawmakers more comfortable delivering their message online, including by cutting shareable short-form videos. In one recent shutdown-themed clip, Warner sought to debunk “as many Republican lies as I can in 90 seconds.”

And he leaned into social media to dispel rumors being circulated from some Republicans who thought the in-cycle senator would quickly relent on the shutdown and vote for the House-passed stopgap. “Not caving,” he wrote on X.

Beyer predicted that if the shutdown does play into Warner’s race next year it would only help him.

“They’re never going to assign blame on the shutdown to him — [Republicans] have the White House, they have the Senate, they have the House,” he said. “Regardless of the national landscape, he’s been a constructive part of our polity and our economy now for a generation.”

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Congress

How Jack Smith connected the dots between GOP lawmakers, Trump aides in 2020 election probe

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Former special counsel Jack Smith’s office sought to map a vast web of contacts between President Donald Trump’s most vocal Republican allies in Congress and key players in his bid to subvert the results of the 2020 election, according to newly released records of the Smith-led investigation.

Emails from January 2023 circulated among Smith’s deputies show how top GOP lawmakers communicated directly with individuals later identified by Smith as Trump’s co-conspirators in his election interference plot, including attorneys Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman.

Those contacts became the Smith office’s justification for pursuing subpoenas of phone logs for more than a dozen Republican officials. That includes former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina — who were previously known to be of interest to Smith’s investigators — as well as then-Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York, who is now Trump’s head of the EPA and is among other lawmakers not previously known to be under Smith’s microscope.

A spokesperson for Zeldin did not immediately provide a response to a request for comment.

These Republicans and others are featured in the materials released Tuesday by Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley, who has been leading a probe into Smith’s work. The Iowa Republican made the documents public to help support the party’s widely held position that Smith was politically motivated in his pursuit of criminal charges against Trump during the Biden administration — for efforts to overturn the election and his mishandling of classified documents.

“They were not aiming low. They were trying to take out everyone on the other side,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), whose data Smith’s office sought to obtain via subpoena, said Tuesday.

Cruz delivered the remarks while presiding over a Senate Judiciary subcommittee hearing comparing Smith’s investigations into Trump to the Watergate scandal that took down former President Richard Nixon and led to new rules cracking down on government corruption.

But the newly public documents also offer a more expansive picture of who Smith’s team believed might have had information that could bolster their probe into the campaign to undermine the 2020 election results that culminated in a deadly riot.

The special counsel’s office found that Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas) had communicated with Trump’s then-chief of staff Mark Meadows and then-Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, who is now director of the CIA. A spokesperson for Ratcliffe did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Zeldin corresponded with Meadows and Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, who was a close Trump ally in the effort. Cruz had calls with Meadows, Eastman and Ratcliffe and was one of several senators who received a call from Giuliani on Jan. 6.

Those contacts explain Smith’s interest in obtaining subpoenas for the phone logs for a dozen current and former Republican members of Congress, which his team said would be used to “establish logical evidentiary inferences regarding Trump and his surrogates’ actions and intent.”

The list of potential subpoena targets also includes Arizona Republican Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar. Spokespeople for Biggs, Gosar and Perry did not immediately return a request for comment.

According to the documents, Smith’s team methodically reviewed information provided in a report produced by the Democratic-led House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attacks, suggesting a nexus between the two parallel inquiries.

New documents released by Grassley Tuesday also revealed the scale and scope of Smith’s scrutiny of Kash Patel, a longtime Trump ally who now serves as FBI director. Patel was previously established to have been a target of the special counsel’s investigation, but it was not known that Smith sought to obtain Patel’s phone and text message logs spanning two years.

A spokesperson for national FBI headquarters did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The materials also provide new details about the backchanneling between former Vice President Mike Pence and Smith’s team regarding Pence’s grand jury testimony, and the efforts investigators took to screen out privileged information before they accessed devices they seized from targets of their probe.

At the Judiciary subcommittee hearing Tuesday, Democrats continued to defend Smith’s work and urged Republicans to schedule a public hearing with the former special counsel.

“Apparently when the Trump DOJ does it, it’s nothing new; when Jack Smith does it, it’s a modern Watergate,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action and Federal Rights. “With Patel, it’s obvious why Jack Smith was looking at him.”

Grassley has said Smith will receive an invitation to address the full Judiciary panel in the coming months, following testimony the attorney gave to the House Judiciary Committee late last year.

A spokesperson for Smith declined to comment.

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Congress

Trump: Unlikely to be happy with ‘any deal’ on DHS

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President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday that he plans to take a “hard look” at the emerging DHS funding deal but that he is unlikely to be “happy” with any agreement Republicans strike with Democrats.

It was the first time the president has weighed in publicly on the brewing agreement to fund the agency, as the White House signaled earlier Tuesday that the yet-to-be-finalized solution “seems to be acceptable.” A White House official cautioned that talks are ongoing to fund DHS more than five weeks after money lapsed.

“Well I’m going to look at it, and we’re gonna take a good hard look at it. I want to support Republicans. Sometimes it’s awfully hard to get votes when you have Democrats that don’t want to have voter ID, they don’t want to have proof of citizenship, they don’t want to do anything about men playing in women’s sports,” the president said from the Oval Office after Markwayne Mullin was sworn in to lead DHS.

The president also said he didn’t want to comment on the deal until he reviews it, adding that “they are getting fairly close. But I think any deal they make, I’m pretty much not happy with it.”

Trump’s comments leave room for him to ultimately reject or support the emerging framework. Conservatives, who are skeptical of the potential agreement because it leaves out parts of ICE, are strategizing behind the scenes, according to three people with knowledge of their efforts granted anonymity to discuss them. Senate Republicans, in particular, are bracing for their right flank to try to get in Trump’s ear to tank the deal or demand changes, two of the people said.

And House GOP leadership is privately panning the forming agreement, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. Some members argue it kills their leverage to force Democrats to fully fund DHS — and risks leaving them with a GOP revolt.

Speaker Mike Johnson, asked if he supported the forming deal in a brief interview Tuesday leaving the Capitol, replied: “I haven’t seen the details.”

Asked if it could get through the House, Johnson said: “Stay tuned.”

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters he hadn’t seen details of the forming deal yet but argued Democrats should fully fund DHS. He also declined to say whether the possible deal to leave out some ICE enforcement money could pass the House amid a GOP hard-liner rebellion.

“Those that are contorting themselves to do this, it’s just beyond stupid,” House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.) said. “Just fund DHS, right?”

House GOP leaders are planning to hold a third vote on the stalled DHS funding bill that fully funds ICE on Thursday in an attempt to pressure Democrats.

Republican senators met with the president at the White House late Monday after he publicly rejected DHS funding without the SAVE America Act alongside it. The senators left the White House and began working on the framework, which includes an effort to pass some portions of the SAVE America Act through reconciliation.

Mullin said in the Oval Office that Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is “committed to making sure we get reconciliation through.”

“Because there’s nothing more important than the SAVE America Act,” Mullin said. “I mean, that’s what the American people want.”

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Congress

Introducing Sen. Alan Armstrong

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Alan Armstrong was sworn in Tuesday to temporarily fill the seat left vacant by Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s move to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

The Republican energy executive took the oath of office from Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) just hours after Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt announced Armstrong as his choice to succeed Mullin.

Armstrong will serve until a successor is elected in November. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) is running and is viewed as the favorite after securing President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

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