The Dictatorship
What the Supreme Court could mean for Trump, tariffs, and foreign policy
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump sees tariffs — or the threat of them — as a powerful tool to bend nations to his will.
He has used them in an unprecedented way, not only as the underpinning of his economic agendabut also as the cornerstone of his foreign policy in his second term.
He has wielded the import taxes as a threat to secure ceasefiresfrom countries at war. He has used them to browbeat nations into promising to do more to stop people and drugs from flowing across their borders. He has used them, in Brazil’s case, as political pressure because its judicial system prosecuted a former leader who was a Trump ally, and in a recent blowup with Canada, as punishment for a television ad.
This week, the Supreme Court hears arguments on whether the Republican president has overstepped federal law with many of his tariffs. A ruling against him could limit or even take away that swift and blunt leverage that much of his foreign policy has relied on.
Trump increasingly has expressed agitation and anxiety about the looming decision in a case he says is one of the most important in U.S. history.
He has said it would be a “disaster” for the United States if the justices fail to overturn lower court rulings that found he went too far in using an emergency powers law to put his tariffs in place.
Trump had said he wanted to take the highly unusual step of attending the arguments in person, but on Sunday said he had ruled it out, saying he didn’t want to be a distraction. “I wanted to go so badly — I just don’t want to do anything to deflect the importance of that decision,” he told reporters on Air Force One.
The Justice Department, in its defense of the tariffs, has highlighted the expansive way Trump has used them, arguing that the trade penalties are part of his power over foreign affairs, an area where the courts should not second-guess the president.
Earlier this year, two lower courts and most judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit found that Trump did not have power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to set tariffs — a power the Constitution grants to Congress. Some dissenting judges on the court, though, said the 1977 law allows the president to regulate imports during emergencies without specific limitations.
The courts left the tariffs in place while the Supreme Court considers the issue. Meanwhile, Trump has continued to wield them as he has tried to pressure or punish other countries on matters related — and unrelated — to trade.
“The fact of the matter is that President Trump has acted lawfully by using the tariff powers granted to him by Congress in IEEPA to deal with national emergencies and to safeguard our national security and economy,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “We look forward to ultimate victory on this matter with the Supreme Court.”
Still, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the Trump trade team is working on contingency plans should the high court rule against the Republican administration.
“We do have backup plans,” Leavitt said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.” “But ultimately…we are hopeful that the Supreme Court will rule on the right side of the law and do what’s right for our country. The importance of this case cannot be overstated. The president must have the emergency authority to utilize tariffs.”
Most presidents haven’t used tariffs as a foreign policy tool
Modern presidents have used financial sanctions such as freezing assets or blocking trade, not tariffs, for their foreign policy and national security aims, said Josh Lipsky, a former Obama White House and State Department staffer who is now the international economics chair at the Atlantic Council.
There are other laws that presidents can use to impose tariffs. But they require a monthslong process to justify the rates.
Trump, citing the IEEPA, moves faster and more dramatically. He signs executive orders imposing new rates and fires off social media posts threatening additional import taxes, as he did in late October when he was angered by an anti-tariff television ad aired by the province of Ontario.
“Presidents have typically treated tariffs as a scalpel, not a sledgehammer,” Lipsky said.
In contrast, Trump has used tariffs as the backbone of his national security and foreign policy agenda, Lipsky said. “All of it is interconnected and tariffs are at the heart of it,” he said.
For example, earlier this year Trump had threatened a 30% tariff on European imports, a major increase from 1.2% before he took office. Seeking to secure Trump’s support for the NATO military alliance and for security guarantees for Ukraine in its war with Russia, the European Union struck a deal to settle for 15% tariffs.
The EU Commission faced criticism from businesses and member states for giving away too much. But Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič argued the settlement was “not only about the trade. It’s about security. It’s about Ukraine.”
Trump has been able “to use it in specific circumstances to get better deals — not just trade deals — but better deals overall than he might otherwise,” Lipsky said. “On the other hand, you would say there’s probably some backlash.”
Supreme Court decision could rattle geopolitics — and wallets
Trump’s tariff strong-arming has rattled relationships with America’s friends and foes. Some have responded by becoming more protectionist or looking to foster relations with China, which has tried to be seen as a promoter of free trade.
There also is the impact on pocketbook. Some businesses have passed on some of the costs to consumers by raising prices, while others have waited to see where tariff rates end up.
Tariffs traditionally have been used just as a tool to address trade practices.
“There’s literally no precedent for the manner that President Trump is using them,” said Emily Kilcrease, who was a deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and earlier worked on trade issues at the National Security Council as a career civil servant during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations,
“The use of tariffs the way that President Trump is using them is like — just broadscale attack on an economy as a way to incentivize a foreign government to change their posture,” said Kilcrease, now a director at the Center for a New American Security think tank.
But she said the case is not clear-cut. Kilcrease said she thinks there is a “decent chance” the Supreme Court could side with Trump because IEEPA gives the president “broad, flexible emergency powers.”
The case is also coming before a Supreme Court that has thus far been reluctant to check to Trump’s wide-ranging use of executive powers.
If the court constrains Trump, it could leave foreign governments questioning whether to try to renegotiate trade agreements recently struck with the Trump administration, experts said. But there are political realities at play too, because reneging on deals could affect other foreign policy or economic priorities.
The administration could pivot to try to use other laws to justify the tariffs, though that could mean a more complex and bureaucratic process, Kilcrease said.
“It certainly doesn’t take tariffs off the table,” she said. “It just makes them a little bit slower.”
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Associated Press writer Lindsay Whitehurst contributed to this report.
The Dictatorship
Allies seek to shield themselves from President Donald Trump’s tariffs
WASHINGTON (AP) — Bullied and buffeted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs for the past year, America’s longstanding allies are desperately seeking ways to shield themselves from the president’s impulsive wrath.
U.S. trade partners are cutting deals among themselves —- sometimes discarding old differences to do so — in a push to diversify their economies away from a newly protectionist United States. Some European governments and institutions are reducing their use of U.S. digital services such as Zoom and Teams.
Central banks and global investors are dumping dollars and buying gold. Together, their actions could diminish U.S. influence and mean higher interest rates and prices for Americans already angry about the high cost of living.
Last summer and fall, Trump used the threat of punishing taxes on imports to strong-arm the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other trading partners into accepting lopsided trade deals and promising to make massive investments in the United States.
But a deal with Trump, they’ve discovered, is no deal at all.
The mercurial president repeatedly finds reasons to conjure new tariffs to impose on trading partners that thought they had already made enough concessions to satisfy him.
Just months after reaching his agreement with the EU, Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European countries for opposing his attempts to seize control of Greenland from Denmark – though he quickly backed down. And last month, he said he’d slap 100% tariffs on Canada for breaking with the United States by agreeing to reduce Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
“Our trading partners are discovering that the largely one-sided deals they concluded with the U.S. provide little protection,’’ said former U.S. trade negotiator Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “As a result, trade diversification efforts by our partners are on turbo charge, looking to reduce dependence on the U.S.’’
Trump supporters such as Paul Winfree, who was deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council during Trump’s first term, are wary of the relative decline in U.S. Treasury note holdings by foreign central banks and view the national debt as a vulnerability rivals would like to exploit.
Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Institute, a think tank, said that some of Trump’s advisers do not feel America has fully benefited from the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency.
“But the fact remains that every other country is jealous of our status, and many of our adversaries would love to challenge the U.S. dollar and Treasuries,” he said.
White House spokesman Kush Desai insists America’s standing on the global stage has not been diminished.
“President Trump remains committed to the strength and power of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” he said.
India and the EU clinch a long-awaited deal
The most eye-opening deal so far has been the pact announced last week between the 27-country EU and India, the world’s fastest growing major economy. Negotiators had been at it for nearly two decades before they closed the agreement.
Likewise, an EU trade deal announced two weeks ago with the Mercosur nations of South America took a quarter century of negotiation. It will create a free-trade market of more than 700 million people.
“Some of these deals have been in the works for quite some time,’’ said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “The pressure from Trump made them more eager to accelerate the process and reach agreement.’’
EU exporters were jubilant over the India deal. VDMA, a group of European machinery and plant engineering companies, welcomed lower Indian tariffs on machinery.
“The free trade agreement between India and the EU brings much needed oxygen to a world increasingly dominated by trade conflicts,” VDMA’s executive director, Thilo Brodtmann, said in a statement. “With this agreement, Europe is sending a clear signal in favor of rules-based trade and against the law of the jungle.”
‘We have all the cards’
On Monday, Trump went on social media to announce his own deal with India. The U.S., he posted, would reduce tariffs on Indian imports after India agreed to stop buying oil from Russia, which has used the sales to fund its four year war in Ukraine.
The president said that India would reduce its tariffs on American products to zero and buy $500 billion worth of American products. Trade lawyer Ryan Majerus, a partner at the King & Spalding and a trade official in the Biden administration and during Trump’s first term, said that businesses and legal analysts were awaiting official White House documents spelling out details of the deal.
Trump is banking on there being limits to other countries’ ability to pull away from the United States. America has the world’s biggest economy and consumer market. “We have all the cards,’’ Trump told Fox Business this month.
Countries like South Korea, dependent on America’s market and military protection, can’t afford to ignore Trump’s threats. On Monday, for example, the president said he was increasing tariffs on South Korea goods because the country’s legislature has been slow to approve the trade framework announced last year. On Tuesday, the country’s Finance Ministry responded by saying its chief, Koo Yun-cheol, would push lawmakers to quickly approve a bill to invest $350 billion as promised in the agreement.
“The U.S was trying to identify a counterpart that would find it difficult to refuse U.S. demands outright, given the depth of its economic and security ties,” said Cha Du Hyeogn, an analyst at South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
Or consider Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to its southern neighbor. “Canada and U.S. will always be tightly linked through international trade,” said Obstfeld, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “We’re talking about adjustments more or less on the margin.’’
But the world’s growing rejection of Trump’s policies is already having an impact, driving down the value of the dollar, long the currency of choice for global commerce, to its lowest level since 2022 last week versus several competing currencies.
Syracuse University political scientist Daniel McDowell, author of the book “Bucking the Buck: U.S. Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar,” sees a vibe shift under Trump: Foreign countries and investors want to reduce their exposure to the United States, which has moved from a source of security and stability to a driver of instability and unpredictability under Trump.
“Trump has shown that he is willing to use foreign countries’ economic dependence on the U.S. as leverage against them in negotiations,” McDowell said. “As global perceptions of the US are changing, it is only natural that investors — public and private alike — are reconsidering their relationship with the dollar.”
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Kurtenbach reported from Bangkok. Associated Press videographer Yong Jun Chang in Seoul and AP Business Writer Kelvin Chan in London contributed to this report.
The Dictatorship
Speaker Johnson faces tough choices on partial government shutdown and debate over ICE
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump implored the House on Monday to end the partial government shutdownbut neither Republicans nor Democrats appeared ready to quickly approve the federal funding package he brokered with the Senate without first debating their own demands over immigration enforcement operations.
Democrats are refusing to provide the votes House Speaker Mike Johnson needs to push the package forward as they try to rein in the Trump administration’s deportation operations after the shooting deaths of two Americans in Minneapolis. That’s forcing Johnson to rely on his slim GOP majority, which has its own complaints about the package, to fall in line behind Trump’s deal with Senate Democrats.
Voting is expected to begin as soon as Tuesday, which would be day four of the partial shutdown. The Pentagon, Homeland Security and other agencies saw their funding lapse Saturday. And while many operations at those departments are deemed essential, and still functioning, some workers may go without pay or be furloughed.
“We need to get the Government open, and I hope all Republicans and Democrats will join me in supporting this Bill, and send it to my desk WITHOUT DELAY,” the president wrote on social media.
AP AUDIO: Speaker Johnson faces tough choices on partial government shutdown and debate over ICE
AP correspondent Donna Warder reports the latest efforts in Congress to avoid a government shutdown.
“There can be NO CHANGES at this time,” Trump insisted. “We will work together in good faith to address the issues that have been raised, but we cannot have another long, pointless, and destructive Shutdown.”
The stalemate points to difficult days ahead as Johnson relies on Trump to help muscle the package to passage.
The president struck a deal last week with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in which Homeland Security would only be funded temporarily, though Feb. 13, as Congress debates changes to immigration enforcement operations. The Senate overwhelmingly approved the package with the rest of the government funding ahead of Saturday’s deadline.
Democrats demand changes to ICE
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries made it clear Monday that his side sees no reason to help Johnson push the bill forward in a procedural step, something that the majority party typically handles on its own.
With Johnson facing unrest from his own Republican ranks, Jeffries is seizing the leverage it provides Democrats to demand changes to immigration operations.
“On rare occasions have we stepped in to deal with Republican dysfunction,” Jeffries said at the Capitol.
Democrats are demanding restraints on Immigration and Customs Enforcement that go beyond $20 million for body cameras that already is in the bill. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced Monday that officers on the ground in Minneapolis, including ICE, will be immediately issued body-worn camerasand the program would be expanded nationwide as funding is available.
But Democrats are pressing for more. They want to require that federal immigration agents unmask — noting that few, if any, other law enforcement agencies routinely mask themselves in the U.S. — and they want officers to rely on judicial, rather than administrative, warrants in their operations.
They also want an end to roving patrols, amid other changes.
Jeffries said the administration needs to begin negotiations now, not over the next two weeks, on changes to immigration enforcement operations.
Certain Democrats, however, are splintering with the leader, and pushing for quicker passage of the funding package to avoid government disruptions.
Republicans launch their own demands
At the same time, House Republicans, with some allies in the Senate, are making their own demands, as they work to support Trump’s clampdown on immigrants in the U.S.
The House Freedom Caucus has insisted on fuller funding for Homeland Security while certain Republicans pushed to include the SAVE Acta longshot Trump priority that would require proof of citizenship before Americans are eligible to participate in elections and vote. Critics say it would disenfranchise millions of voters.
Late Monday, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., dropped her demand to attach the voting bill to the funding package after she and Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., met with Trump at the White House. She posted afterward that it would be better to try to advance that bill separately through the Senate, and keep the government open.
The development was seen as helping Johnson push ahead.
“Obviously the president really wants this,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise said at the Capitol.
“We always work ‘til the midnight hour to get the votes,” Scalise said. “You never start the process with everybody on board. You work through it.”
Workers without pay if partial government shutdown drags on
Meanwhile, a number of federal agencies are snared in the funding standoff after the government went into a partial shutdown over the weekend.
Defense, health, transportation and housing are among those that were given shutdown guidance by the administration, though many operations are deemed essential and services are not necessarily interrupted. Workers could go without pay if the impasse drags on. Some could be furloughed.
Lawmakers from both parties are increasingly concerned the closure will disrupt the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which they rely on to help constituents after deadly snowstorms and other disasters.
This is the second time in a matter of months that federal government operations have been disrupted as lawmakers use the annual funding process as leverage to extract policy changes. Last fall, Democrats sparked what became the longest federal shutdown in history, 43 daysas they protested the expiration of health insurance tax breaks.
That shutdown ended with a promise to vote on proposals to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. But with GOP opposition, Democrats were unable to achieve their goal of keeping the subsidies in place. Insurance premiums spiked in the new year for millions of people.
Trump tries to prevent another long shutdown
Trump is already working on an immigration deal to ensure the shutdown doesn’t drag on.
Johnson said he was in the Oval Office last week when Trump, along with border czar Tom Homan, spoke with Schumer of New York as they discussed the immigration changes.
Body cameras, which are already provided for in the package, and an end to the roving patrols by immigration agents are areas of potential agreement, Johnson said.
But Johnson drew a line at other Democratic demands. He said he does not think that requiring immigration officers to remove their masks would have support from Republicans because it could lead to problems if their personal images and private information is posted online by protesters.
And Senate Majority Leader John Thune tapped the brakes on the demand from Democrats to require judicial warrants for officers’ searches, saying it’s likely to be a part of the negotiations ahead.
“It’s going to be very difficult to reach agreement in two weeks,” Thune said at the Capitol.
Democrats, however, said the immigration operations are out of control, and must end in Minneapolis and other cities.
Growing numbers of lawmakers are also calling for Noem to be fired or impeached.
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Associated Press writers Kevin Freking, Matt Brown and Nathan Ellgren contributed to this report.
The Dictatorship
Grammys: Trevor Noah’ takes aim at absent Nicki Minaj, Trump
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Trevor Noah once again roamed through the audience during his monologue to open the Grammy Awardstaking pokes at the stars while standing right next to them, but he saved his most pointed jokes for absentees, and elicited an angry post from the president.
“ Nicki Minaj is not here,” Noah said, to big cheers from the audience at Crypto.com Arena. “She is still at the White House with Donald Trump discussing very important issues.”
Minaj this week visited and praised the president, the culmination of a move toward MAGA that she’s made in recent months.
Noah broke into a Trump impression. “Actually Nicki, I have the biggest ass, everybody’s saying it Nicki.”
In his sixth time hosting the show — and what he says will be his last — Noah mostly played it safe during his monologue, not delving too much into much politics or controversy, at least during his monologue. There was no mention of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (on a night when many attendees were wearing “ICE OUT” buttons).
But Noah got more pointed later in the show, after Billie Eilish won song of the year.
“Wow. That is a Grammy that every artist wants,” Noah said, “almost as much as Trump wants Greenland. Which makes sense. I mean, because Epstein’s island is gone, he needs a new island to hang out with Bill Clinton.”
After the show in a Truth Social post, Trump reacted.
“Noah said, INCORRECTLY about me, that Donald Trump and Bill Clinton spent time on Epstein Island. WRONG!!! I can’t speak for Bill, but I have never been to Epstein Island, nor anywhere close, and until tonight’s false and defamatory, statement, have never been accused being there, not even by the Fake News Media,” the post said. “Noah, a total loser, better get his facts straight, and get them straight fast. It looks like I’ll be sending my lawyers to sue this poor, pathetic, talentless, dope of an M.C.”
After the crowd’s reaction to the joke during the show, Noah said, “Oh, I told you, it’s my last year. What are you going to do about it?”
At a different point in the show, Noah joked about the president’s penchant for suing TV networks when he said the Grammys were airing “completely live” because “if we edited any of the show, the president would sue CBS for $16 billion,” referring to Trump’s recent history with CBS News and a settlement he got from Paramount last summer.
It had seemed at first like he wasn’t going to go very far into such material.
He said during the monologue Lauryn Hill was performing on the show for the first time since 1999.
“Do you understand how long ago that is?” he said. “Back in 1999, the president had had a sex scandal, people thought computers were about to destroy the world, and Diddy was arrested.”
Later in the show, Noah cozied up to the night’s biggest nominee, Kendrick Lamarand only congratulated him.
“I actually thought about writing a few jokes roasting you, but then I remembered what you can do to light-skinned dudes from other countries,” Noah, who is from South Africa, said in a reference to Lamar’s beef with the Canadian rapper Drake that culminated in last year’s big Grammy winner “Not Like Us.”
Later, he sat with Bad Bunny, and asked if he could come live with him in his native Puerto Rico if things got too bad in the U.S.
“Trevor I have some news for you,” Bad Bunny said. “Puerto Rico is part of America.”
The Recording Academy announced less than three weeks ago that Noah was returning “one final time.”
“I believe in term limits,” Noah said during the show.
Only singer Andy Williams, who hosted the Grammys seven times in the 1970s, has hosted more often.
Noah himself is a four-time Grammy nominee, and was up this year in the best audio book recording category for “Into The Uncut Grass,” a children’s story. He lost to the Dalai Lama.
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This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Nicki Minaj in several places.
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For more coverage of the 2026 Grammy Awards, visit: https://apnews.com/hub/grammy-awards
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