Politics
Shapiro needs big policy wins for a 2028 run. He’s gunning for a Democratic trifecta to achieve them.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has made his ability to navigate a sharply divided Legislature a core part of his national sales pitch. But as 2028 approaches, what he really wants is a Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg.
Shapiro helped Democrats flip the state House in 2022 when he won the governor’s mansion. But the Republican-controlled Senate has been his Achilles’ heel since, stymieing his attempts to pass core Democratic policies like raising one of the lowest state minimum wages in the country. And the split Legislature left Shapiro mired in a monthslong budget standoff last year that held up billions of dollars in state funding for counties, schools and nonprofits.
Now, Shapiro is leading the charge to help Democrats wrest back the chamber from Republican control by a slim 27-23 majority and expand their single-seat majority in the House — part of an aggressive down-ballot push the governor is undertaking alongside his own reelection bid.
Shapiro has repeatedly voiced his desire to win unified control of the commonwealth both in private conversations with donors and in public. He’s touted what he could do with it — outlining a policy agenda rooted in increasing affordability that includes raising the state’s minimum wage and boosting energy production, including through renewables.
When asked his second-term goals and whether he needs unified Democratic control to achieve them, the governor said his record proves “I can bring the Republicans and Democrats together to get stuff done.”
“There are some things, though, that the Republican Senate has blocked me on that I would like us to be able to get done,” he said at an event in Washington last week. “And certainly, having a trifecta would allow me to do that.”
During his state budget address Tuesday, Shapiro unloaded on Senate Republicans who’ve stood in the way of his priorities, saying they’ve “refused to act” on raising wages and needling them to “stop making excuses” on advancing his energy plans. His voice ringing with emotion, he accused them of “cowering to … special interests” and “tying justice for abused kids to your pet political projects” over stalling enhanced protections for sexual abuse victims.
Shapiro’s effort to secure unified control of Harrisburg will serve as a critical test of his coattails in the nation’s largest swing state. And it’s a prerequisite for him to be able to score some big-ticket liberal policy wins he can brag about on a 2028 presidential primary stage that could be jam-packed with governors who already have their own achievements to tout.
“If he can add to the appeal he already has with things like a higher minimum wage, with other pieces of the puzzle that state government can do to make things more affordable, it just gives his candidacy and his message that extra spark that is missing right now,” said longtime Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco, who worked on Barack Obama’s and Amy Klobuchar’s presidential campaigns but is not working for any likely 2028 contenders.
But Pennsylvania Democrats haven’t had a trifecta in three decades. And they face a narrow path to achieving it even in a year when national Democrats are bullish on a blue wave.
Just half the Pennsylvania Senate is on the ballot this year, and operatives on both sides say the battlefield is even smaller, pointing to a handful of districts in the Philadelphia suburbs through the Lehigh Valley and more rural swaths of the state. Prognosticators say the Pennsylvania Senate “leans Republican.”
“If you look at the Republican map on who needs to be defeated, it’s a lot of more rural, red areas,” said Pennsylvania-based GOP consultant Josh Novotney. “Nothing’s impossible in such a bad year for Republicans. But it’s going to be tough.”
But Keystone State Democrats are emboldened by last year’s elections. The party swept judicial retention races for the state’s highest court and flipped a state Senate seat during a special election in a district Democrats said President Donald Trump carried by 15 percentage points in 2024. They’re encouraged by Democratic wins and overperformances across the country over the past year.
And, top Democrats say, they have Shapiro.
The governor remains highly popular, with an approval rating that’s cracked 60 percent in some surveys. He’s a fundraising juggernaut who has amassed a $30 million war chest to unload against likely GOP rival Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer, who raised just a fraction of that amount.
Democrats rode to power in the Pennsylvania House in 2022 on what one top lawmaker described as “Shapiro’s landslide coattails,” and they credit the governor for helping them hold their razor-thin majority in 2024, even as Trump won Pennsylvania and Democrats lost every statewide election.
“He is a huge part of the reason we have the majority. He’s a huge part of the reason that we were able to hold the majority in 2024,” said state Rep. Mike Schlossberg, the House majority whip. “I have no doubt he will lean in very, very heavily to making sure that we not only expand our majority in the House, but hopefully take control of the Senate — something that’s realistically in play for the first time probably in my entire career.”
Shapiro poured $1.25 million into the Pennsylvania House Democrats’ campaign committee in 2024 and helped raise another $1 million toward defending their majority that year. He also donated $250,000 to state Senate Democrats’ campaign committee. And he cut ads and hit the campaign trail in key legislative districts.
Last year, Shapiro gave the state party $250,000 to fund infrastructure improvements heading into the midterms, with a promise of more to come. His political team is in “regular communication” with Pennsylvania Democrats’ campaign arms, said state Sen. Vincent Hughes, a Philadelphia Democrat who chairs the party’s Senate campaign committee.
The governor’s political operation declined to share an estimate of how much Shapiro plans to spend down-ticket this year, or where he plans to campaign. Manuel Bonder, a spokesperson for Shapiro, said the governor “has a long track record of working to elect Democrats up and down the ballot” and will “continue to focus on” that alongside his reelection bid.
Shapiro and his allies have repeatedly lamented Republican roadblocks to an agenda that includes raising wages, boosting housing and energy production and securing sustainable funding for public transportation. House Speaker Joanna McClinton, a Philadelphia Democrat, accused the GOP of “political gamesmanship” in an interview, claiming the opposition is trying to “keep down the productivity” to hurt Shapiro and state Democrats in 2026 and beyond.
Senate Republican leaders signaled more friction to come as they fired back on several fronts after Shapiro’s speech Tuesday, skewering his plan to overhaul the state’s energy sector, accusing him of being “more interested in the political talking point” on hiking wages to $15 an hour (while indicating they’re open to compromise) and saying there are “different paths” to helping victims of abuse.
As 2028 looms, Democratic legislative leaders and political strategists acknowledged the potential political benefit of a trifecta for Shapiro, who could get a boost from both turning a purple state blue and passing policies that could pad a potential presidential platform.
“If he can help us win the trifecta, and then use it to actually govern and get good results — or as he likes to say, ‘get shit done’ — that looks really good at the national level,” Schlossberg said.
Ted Cruz on his 2028 lane, JD Vance and the GOP’s future
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DALLAS — Top Republican lawmakers had no idea President Donald Trump was going to promise $5,000 checks to every adult American so long as his party keeps control of Congress. Now, they’re grappling with how to handle the fallout.
GOP leaders have privately pushed back on similar Trump promises of giving money to Americans in the past year, according to four people granted anonymity to share details of closed-door meetings. Senior Republicans on Capitol Hill were blindsided by Trump’s Wednesday night announcement in Dallas, and are trying to manage lawmakers’ and voters’ expectations about a trillion-dollar-plus proposal they cannot deliver.
“The only thing that I knew of was that he has this concept of a dividend of all Americans being able to share in the success of America,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who appeared supportive of the idea, said in an interview on the sidelines of the party’s midterm convention. “But last night, no, I was just like you and everybody else when I went, ‘Oh, that’s interesting. Okay.’”
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson added in an interview: “First, I’d heard of it, so I want to talk to him and get some details before I comment.” Hudson said the idea was “exciting,” but he didn’t indicate the House GOP campaign arm would start touting the idea in ads for battleground candidates.
As for the chances of the measure passing Congress, Hudson responded: “Not this Congress. Because Democrats in the Senate will never go through with it.”
Republican leaders, indeed, don’t have the votes to pass such an offer this year, with some in the party questioning the legality of Trump effectively declaring he would pay for votes. GOP fiscal hawks and others also quickly shot it down.
And some Republicans worry Trump’s last-ditch move steps on their carefully laid messaging about the economic benefits of their major tax cuts package — benefits which have largely been erased by the Iran war and tariffs, according to five senior Republicans, who were also granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“It seems incredibly desperate,” said one of the House Republicans.
“I see zero chance of this happening,” said another House Republican at the convention.
The scramble to figure out their position — and how serious Trump is — comes at a critical final stretch of the midterms and as many voters grow increasingly skeptical of the GOP’s record on the economy.
Democrats were quick to slam Trump’s announcement as a way to bribe Americans and distract from an unpopular trade agenda and war in the Middle East. And as Republicans gathered in Dallas for their splashy midterm convention, the emerging splits over the dividends were on full display.
GOP lawmakers have privately noted a clear divide in the messaging around Trump’s promise of $5,000 checks: The White House and Trump’s campaign social media accounts are wholeheartedly touting the idea. GOP House and Senate campaign arms, meanwhile, are not. The NRSC declined to comment on the proposal.
Vice President JD Vance defended Trump’s offer on Fox News shortly after the president announced it Wednesday night, saying it was intended to boost “the American middle class.” But Vance did not mention the Trump proposal during a closed-door breakfast with GOP lawmakers, state party officials and activists from key battleground states on Thursday morning, instead touting a string of GOP economic achievements like Trump’s executive action that aims to lower prescription drug costs and the GOP tax cuts package.
“I think we’re all looking forward to learning more,” said Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) as he left the closed-door breakfast with Vance.
Asked if he would support Trump’s proposal, Steil repeated, “I think we’re all looking forward to learning more.”
While Republicans scramble to figure out how to position themselves on the “dividend” pledge, Trump told CBS on Thursday he doesn’t think he needs Congress to approve his plan to send out payments.
Amy Natoce, a spokesperson for Ohio GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who faces a tough battle for reelection this fall, said his team “has reached out to the White House to learn more about the proposal and how it would work.” Natoce noted that “putting money directly back into the pockets of hardworking Ohioans is in line with Jon Husted’s priorities.”
Some Republicans were willing to more fully embrace the idea.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said Wednesday that it was “an incentive for work” — even though the money will go to all Americans regardless of employment status. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno pledged to draft up a bill on the checks “so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election.” Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, who’s facing a surprisingly competitive race, eagerly asked his social media followers to “comment how you will spend your $5,000 Trump Dividend when Republicans win in November.”
Fiscal hawks say they are eager for information. Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), who serves on the House Budget Committee, declined to say whether he would support the president’s proposal which could cost more than $1 trillion.
“I would like to know how they would plan to pay for … back of envelope … well over $1 trillion,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said in an interview Wednesday night shortly after Trump announced the proposal.
Trump has promised a litany of dividends and checks to Americans in recent years that have never materialized.
He raised the idea of direct checks to Americans in private meetings with GOP leaders before, often with money he says are from tariffs or the DOGE cuts. It’s an idea that Trump and some close White House advisers have discussed on and off for extended periods of time, particularly during his second term.
Each time, GOP leaders on Capitol Hill have argued that such an idea wouldn’t have the votes among Republicans given the price tag — and that it would likely require Congress to codify Trump’s controversial tariffs into law.
In December, Trump sent a $1,776 check to all members of the military, a move he referred back to while unveiling the dividend plan Wednesday. And he quickly followed up on Thursday with a separate offer to send money to Americans: $500 rebate checks to about 1 million Obamacare enrollees in 30 states.
Democrats immediately pounced on the latest proposal, including several candidates locked in competitive November races.
“Is this some kind of sick joke? Donald Trump’s policies are costing us more than [$5,000] — from his illegal war in Iran and his trade wars — and this dividend is nothing but a lie that wouldn’t even begin to make up for what he’s costing us,” Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said in a statement to Blue Light News.
A spokesperson for El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, did not respond to a request for comment on the proposal. He also declined questions from reporters at the Dallas convention Thursday.
So far Democratic leaders have been dismissive of the idea.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the dividends a “bribe” to Americans and said they demonstrate Trump’s weak political position.
“Trump just talks out of who knows what,” he told reporters Thursday in New York City.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC did not indicate that they planned to include the dividends in messaging to voters.
Emmer dismissed the criticism that the checks were a bribe, saying Trump wanted Americans “to share in the success” of the country.
He acknowledged it’s unlikely the House takes up such a bill before the midterms, given there is no proposal drafted yet and only one week of session scheduled before November, but expressed confidence the GOP could deliver on Trump’s promise after the election.
“Let the policy guys draft it. Let them debate it. Let them move it through committee,” Emmer said. “You get it to the whip’s office. We’ll pass it.”
Kamala Harris will campaign with Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and headline a fundraising dinner hosted by Fulton County Democrats next month, marking her latest involvement in the midterm elections.
Harris is also slated to join Nevada attorney general and gubernatorial candidate Aaron Ford next month in Las Vegas and campaign with Democratic challengers in two competitive House races in her home state.
“It is critical for Democrats to win this November so we can fight the Trump administration’s corruption and work to lower costs for the American people,” a Harris spokesperson said in a statement. “Vice President Harris will continue to do whatever is needed to support candidates in races where she can be helpful.”
The events in Georgia were first reported by CNN. Harris will also be the keynote speaker at the fundraising dinner on Oct. 30 in Atlanta. An Ossoff campaign spokesperson confirmed his plan to campaign with Harris. Ossoff’s campaign previously told Blue Light News that it would welcome Harris to Georgia to stump with or on behalf of the senator.
Still, the announcements come as some Democrats have been keeping distance from the party’s last presidential nominee.
In Iowa, where Democrats are hoping to flip a Senate seat and retake the governor’s mansion in a state where Harris lost by 13 points in 2024, the two candidates both declined to have Harris’ help. So did Mary Peltola, the Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska who “isn’t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48,” and House candidates in some red states and rural districts.
For her part, Harris has skirted the question of whether she will run again in 2028 and said she is focusing on the midterm elections.
“Right now midterms [are] full-time occupying my thoughts, my mind and my work,” Harris said in a recent podcast episode with Megan Rapinoe on Vox Media. “I’m spending full time working on doing everything I can to help people restore some balance in our government, which is through the midterms, winning back Congress, the House and the Senate.”
“I haven’t decided. But honestly, from my perspective, ’28 doesn’t matter if we don’t win ’26,” she said to a question on another presidential bid.
- Democrats revamp their midterm playbook for GOP’s anti-trans attacks
- Capitol agenda: Trump tells Republicans to vote or ‘go to hell’
- Rand Paul and his staff travel by private jet with taxpayer dollars while preaching fiscal restraint
- Ted Cruz on his 2028 lane, JD Vance and the GOP’s future
- How Republicans are privately talking about their Senate map at the convention
- GOP leaders blindsided by Trump’s promise of $5K checks
- House will vote on legislation shielding consumers from data center energy costs
- Tom Emmer has a message for House GOP chairs: Term limits matter
- Trump to give $500 refunds to nearly 1 million Obamacare customers
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