Politics

What 7 political experts will be watching at Tuesday’s debate

Published

2 years ago

November 12, 2024

What 7 political experts will be watching at Tuesday’s debate

The debate Tuesday between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will be one to watch: the first time the two personally meet and the first time they’ll face off.

But what should you watch for?

We asked seven BLN analysts to weigh in on what they’ll be looking for during the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump. Here’s what they said.

Follow live updates on the Trump-Harris debate.

Steve Benen

When Trump takes the stage, he won’t have one opponent; he’ll have two. The first, obviously, will be Harris. The second will be himself. What I’ll be watching is whether the Republican nominee — who’s long struggled to maintain his composure while targeting women, especially women of color — has the discipline, decency and common sense to strike a presidential tone, treat the Democratic nominee with a modicum of respect and avoid the temptation to throw a tantrum that could cost him dearly. If recent history is any guide, even his most optimistic supporters should probably keep expectations low.

Brendan Buck

Harris has worked hard to present herself as the challenger in this race, but Trump has figured out a retort that is difficult for the vice president to answer: “Why didn’t you do it?” She will need a good explanation for why she now will be able to solve problems that she hasn’t while in the White House.

Brian Tyler Cohen

Will Harris be able to bait Trump into descending into one of his unhinged tirades and, if so, what should that tell us about the ease with which Trump can be manipulated (and what are the national security implications that come with it)? Will Trump be able to control himself when challenged by not just a Black woman — but the one who replaced his dream opponent — Joe Biden — on which Trump’s entire campaign was built?

Susan Del Percio

Watch how Harris uses her time. With muted microphones, time management will be essential. Trump rambles, often unable to deliver a clear, coherent response to just about any question. Harris will watch the clock and make her point — although she may sound a little over-rehearsed — and still leave time to get under Trump’s skin. She wins.

Voters want to know more about Harris. She must share her biography, accomplishments and plans for her presidency.

Alicia Menendez

Persuadable voters are the key audience. They may not watch the debate in real time, but they will catch key moments in clips. For those voters,new informationis what will move their candidate preference. Voters want to know more about Harris. She must share her biography, accomplishments and plans for her presidency, specifically around her opportunity agenda. Moreover, she must not only remind voters what Trump did during his first term, but connect those actions tofutureactions.

Michael Steele

I wrote about this for the BLN Daily newsletter on Friday. I want to see if Harris can thread the needle between appearing prosecutorial and being presidential. When she’s on the stage with a pathological liar, her instinct will be to correct him and throw facts back. That might work to a degree and at specific times, but the trap is to remember she’s not running for California attorney general; she’s running for president of the United States.

Charlie Sykes

Because Biden’s debate performance was so historically disastrous, people forget how genuinely awful Trump was. He lied incessantly, blustered and got lost in his own gibberish. If anything, he’s gotten worse since then; and now he faces a far more formidable opponent in Harris. This is her challenge: she has to be the grown-up in the room while calling out his lies, his threats, and his insults — without being dragged down into the Trumpian muck. If she does, she will have turned the corner in the race.

Sign up for BLN’s new How to Win 2024 newsletter and get election insights like this delivered to your inbox weekly.

Ryan Teague Beckwith

Ryan Teague Beckwith is a newsletter editor for BLN. He has previously worked for such outlets as Time magazine, Bloomberg News and CQ Roll Call. He teaches journalism at Georgetown University’s School of Continuing Studies.

Politics

Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems

Published

4 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.

Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.

Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.

Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.

Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.

And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.

“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”

What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.

The results were the same in both.

“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”

Gas prices could swing votes

Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.

Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.

“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”

To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.

More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.

Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.

That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”

The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.

Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.

Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.

It’s already affecting the battlegrounds

In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.

Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.

In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”

“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”

Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.

In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.

While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”

But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.

By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.

Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.

This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”

Politics

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Published

11 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been frank about the rocky road the reconciliation effort faces and careful not to guarantee he’ll be successful…
Read More