Politics

Up next for the DSA? Two major swing states.

Published

4 months ago

July 6, 2026

It’s hot outside. But the DSA is hotter.

Fresh off major primary wins in Colorado and New York, the Democratic Socialists of America is looking to prove that it can translate its momentum beyond deep-blue House primaries and into competitive statewide races.

DSA officials and allies told Blue Light News they’ve already shifted organizers, volunteers and resources toward battleground Michigan and Wisconsin, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed is locked in a three-way Democratic primary for Michigan Senate and DSA-backed Francesca Hong is gaining steam in her primary for Wisconsin governor.

Both El-Sayed and Hong are planning a series of major rallies ahead of their primaries, and their campaigns and DSA organizers are currently discussing bringing many of the movement’s biggest stars — including recent winners from New York and Colorado — to generate attention and shore up the broader national effort. That will likely include a trip to Michigan for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who just made a major endorsement for El-Sayed.

“It’s DSA summer. We can’t stop racking up wins,” said Emma Vigeland, co-host of the long-running progressive program The Majority Report, who has campaigned for DSA candidates this primary season. “We’re seeing the culmination of 10 years of democratic socialism becoming more mainstream.”

Sustaining that summer momentum will be a tall task, as the DSA and the insurgent left try to harness the infrastructure they need to extend their wins into the battlegrounds.

But popular Twitch streamer Hasan Piker and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) are already planning to hit the trail to boost DSA picks in Michigan and Wisconsin ahead of the August primary.

And DSA membership has surged, according to national co-chair Megan Romer, with more than 7,500 new members signing up nationally since the sweeping victories in the Big Apple.

The DSA held a national members call Thursday night to rally the troops featuring two of the organization’s newest stars: Pennsylvania congressional nominee state Rep. Chris Rabb and Melat Kiros, who this week scored a major primary upset in Colorado over longtime Rep. Diana DeGette. Members also addressed Speaker Mike Johnson’s recent attacks on the group.

“This is a movement moment,” Hong said in an interview, pushing back on skeptics who question whether democratic socialists can win statewide in a state President Donald Trump carried twice. “More and more folks are recognizing that the system is rigged and they deserve a more democratic economy, where the power and control are with the workers and not the establishment, the elites and the mega corporations.”

Abdul El-Sayed, Democratic candidate for Michigan Senate, speaks at an event on May 3 in Detroit, Michigan.

The democratic socialist surge has been building since Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign brought the movement into the mainstream. But it’s been supercharged by progressive voters’ frustration with Democratic leadership, especially following former President Joe Biden’s late exit during the 2024 race and the party’s tepid response — in the eyes of many in the base — to the second Trump administration.

That anti-Washington sentiment has now resulted in DSA’s most successful primary season yet, putting democratic socialists on pace to have at least eight aligned members of Congress next year, not to mention the mayorships of New York City, Washington and Seattle — with more races still ahead.

But it hasn’t all been smooth sailing. In California, DSA-backed Sean Dougherty lost his blanket primary against Rep. Jimmy Panetta, while Chris Bennett fell short against Rep. Kevin Kiley, losses that point to a bigger question ahead: How far can the movement translate its surge of national attention and energy? Especially as establishment Democrats and outside groups look to blunt its momentum — and as Republicans ramp up efforts to turn the group into a campaign boogeyman.

“One of the biggest challenges of organizing is helping people channel their organic excitement — positive or negative — into movement growth,” Romer said. “We’ve built these structures and now we get to help people find their way into them so they can use them to win what they want.”

In Wisconsin, Hong is mounting one of the group’s clearest tests yet of whether a democratic socialist can win statewide, running on affordability and opposition to data center expansion — a message that has boosted her into a leading position in some polling heading into next month’s contest.

Public polling in the Wisconsin governor’s race has been sparse. A Marquette University Law School poll from March showed Hong leading the Democratic field at 14 percent among voters who named a candidate, ahead of Mandela Barnes at 11 percent, with 65 percent still undecided.

Hong, who last week appeared on Piker’s stream and raised over $50,000 from viewers in under an hour, says she plans to try unconventional ways of meeting voters heading into the primary.

“We will continue to be campaigning in creative ways, where people are meeting a candidate where they weren’t expected to meet a gubernatorial candidate — bike rides and dive bars,” she said.

Nearby Michigan is shaping up to be perhaps the most important state on the primary calendar this August for the strength of the insurgent movement in the Democratic Party. El-Sayed is not explicitly backed by DSA, but he’s widely viewed within the movement as part of the same progressive project, and organizers are going all in behind El-Sayed’s Senate campaign.

Ocasio-Cortez, who endorsed El-Sayed during his 2018 gubernatorial bid, joins Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who previously backed him in this campaign, in lining up two of the most influential voices on the left behind him.

“Everybody in the coalition is on the same page, whether it be Justice Dems, whether it be [Working Families Party], whether it be DSA,” said Vincent Vertuccio, Egret Strategies, a consulting firm that has worked with leftists running for office this cycle. He said Michigan is “absolutely the next focus of this national movement.”

Piker, who has become a highly sought-after surrogate for insurgent candidates this primary season, told Blue Light News that he was headed to Michigan soon to rally support: “Abdul El-Sayed is not DSA affiliated, but he’s a progressive fighter. He’s a Berniecrat, and I’m excited to help him out to the best of my ability.”

Hasan Piker, center, takes a photo with attendees of Colorado democratic socialist Melat Kiros' primary election night watch party Tuesday, June 30, in Denver.

A recent Quantus Insights poll from late June found El-Sayed leading Rep. Haley Stevens 41 percent to 36 percent, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow trailing at 8 percent.

The DSA has another target in Michigan: Ousting incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar, a former democratic socialist member whom the organization says it expelled over what it described as a “substantial disagreement with the values of DSA.” Thanedar at the time claimed he had renounced his membership, citing the organization’s promotion of a pro-Palestinian rally in New York City in the days immediately after Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023.

The representative now faces a DSA-backed challenger in state Rep. Donavan McKinney in Michigan’s 13th District.

Tlaib, an original member of the Squad, is working hard in her backyard to boost both McKinney and El-Sayed. In an interview, she said that the current momentum behind insurgent candidates reminds her of the 2018 wave that first brought her into Congress along with other Squad members, and their frustration once Democrats won unified control in the 2020 elections.

“Democrats had the trifecta and we couldn’t even get the Voting Rights Act passed. We couldn’t even get Build Back Better passed that was about child care and housing,” she said. “These are not years that we can get back for our residents, and especially our children.”

McKinney has hit Thanedar over taking corporate PAC money and questioned his progressive credentials. Tlaib and DSA are banking on their organizing efforts to propel the challenger to victory.

“[Mckinney] was raised in Wayne County all his life. He understands what it feels like to smell like rotten eggs when you go outside because the air is so polluted,” Tlaib added. “People are hungry for folks that will move with urgency.”

Politics

‘A warning sign for polling’: Why one GOP pollster thinks a blue wave may fall short

Published

3 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Democrats are salivating over, and Republicans are bracing for, a potentially massive blue wave. One GOP pollster is urging everyone to calm down.

Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, has been loudly throwing cold water on Democrats’ hopes of sweeping the red state Senate seats that have become battlegrounds in a worsening national environment for Republicans.

“The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground,” Ruffini told Blue Light News.

Democrats are pushing to flip Senate seats in Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska — all states that President Donald Trump won by at least 11 points in 2024 — with dreams of going even deeper into the map Kansas, South Carolina and even Mississippi. Sensing a potential disaster, Republicans have significantly curtailed their investments in North Carolina and Georgia to direct resources elsewhere.

Ruffini, who isn’t polling for candidates or party committees in any federal races, said he’s skeptical of Democrats flipping some of those seats, particularly in the Midwest, and gives the GOP a coin flip’s chance at keeping control of the Senate.

If a blue wave were to come, he said it would defy the ingrained partisanship in deep-red states that has mirrored growing political polarization around the country.

“I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen,” he said.

Here’s more from Blue Light News’s chat with Ruffini, edited for length and clarity. A more condensed version of this interview ran in Blue Light News’s Morning Score campaign newsletter.

You’ve been pretty publicly skeptical of polling that indicates a big tsunami for Democrats in November. Why is that?

I think we can read the environment right, but the map wrong.

The pretty large shift towards Democrats that we’re seeing on the generic ballot and in a lot of individual races, I’m not saying that’s not going to materialize. What I am more skeptical of is… the ability of any major party in this polarized era that we’re in to rack up significant gains in states that went double digits for the other side.

I’m not ruling out — I think there will be some [examples]. I think Alaska is one where it’s both an idiosyncratic state, and [Democratic nominee Mary] Peltola has shown some specific candidate-centered strength. Nor would it shock me if [Democrat] James Talarico wins, despite the history in Texas. That would not surprise me, just given the candidate quality disparity, particularly on the Ken Paxton side.

Where I get more skeptical is when you move into the Midwest, where there has historically been pretty large polling errors [overstating Democrats’ chances] in states like Iowa, Ohio. And I think you can extend that to the Democratic enthusiasm around Kansas.

Is your skepticism coming more from the quality of the individual polls that you’re seeing that are showing massive Democratic surges in the Midwest, or is it the history of these states that you’re betting will ultimately win out?

I think fundamentals are going to play an important role, particularly in states where there was a solid Trump advantage. We’re not talking about a state like North Carolina or Georgia that’s only for Trump narrowly, where Democrats, at least in the Senate races, are clearly favored.

Historically the presumption is that states tend to converge on their base partisanship in the closing days of an election, but especially that’s been the pattern in the Midwest.

Specifically as it relates to the polls this year, I think any pollster you would talk to, including myself, is experiencing significant non-response bias favoring Democrats.

When you’re seeing high-propensity Democrats [responding to polls] at twice the rate of high-propensity Republicans, when we know that the turnout on both sides would be roughly evenly paired, that’s a warning sign for polling in this cycle.

It seems like there’s some GOP internal polling saying that Republicans are worried about these states, because they are moving money around to triage certain races. I’m curious if you feel like they’re wrong to be making those decisions?

Absolutely not. They’re not wrong. You do have to take the polls somewhat seriously in the sense of, if you do get a poll that’s within the margin of error, I think you’re duty-bound to spend money in those places and not to ignore what could be a potential signal.

I think that control of the Senate comes down to Texas, so they’re right to be spending money there. If you just look at the amount of money being spent in Texas versus Kansas, obviously it’s a much, much bigger state, and you need to spend much more money.

But it’s not something along the lines of ‘the battleground has shifted. It’s a foregone conclusion. Democrats are going to win the Senate,’ and then the battleground entirely shifts to a state like Kansas or to Iowa, right? I don’t think we’re seeing that.

It sounds like the issue you have is how the broader public is interpreting these polls rather than the polls themselves?

The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground. And to some extent it’s happening both ways. The polls showing a margin-of- error race in Minnesota is possible, right? I’m not as concerned about a polling error in Minnesota as I am in Kansas.

But because of the number of Democratic internals and because of the incentive of Democratic internals to show close races across the battleground, what you generally tend to see is more of an inflated sense of how big the battleground actually is. A lot of these races just break a certain way.

We’ve reported that Republicans are privately conceding that the House is lost. Is that your reading of the data too?

That’s the best reading of the data. That said, if there’s a three-point polling error or something, then I think it gets very, very tight and anything can happen. But I think that’s the most likely outcome.

What is your prediction for the number of Senate seats Republicans will have?

My prediction for both the probability and the seat count is 50-50. There’s a 50-50 chance Republicans hold the Senate. I think if they do, it’s with 50 seats, probably. But obviously, that can tilt very easily.

Which of these states do you think are going to flip for Democrats?

Alaska is clearly favored. I mean, I don’t know if it’s clearly favored, but I think it’s at least still Democrat. I think Texas is going to be very, very close. I just think the partisanship of the state is — people forget it’s a little bit more Republican than it was back in 2018. I think Republicans are probably being underestimated in Ohio because of the past Midwestern polling error.

At the same time, I would say it’s still uphill in Maine and Michigan to some degree. I think Susan Collins has really been the lone bright spot, at least in terms of the conventional wisdom, the narrative in the Senate for Republicans. I think she has a fighting chance, but I think Republicans are still probably under a 50% chance in both Michigan and Maine, just due to the nature of their partisan lean.

If at the end of all of this it is a real blue wave in the Senate, what will have happened to have made you wrong?

If that happens, we will have seen a level of depolarization in the electorate that we haven’t seen since around 2012. You really have to go back in history for a state like Kansas to flip.That would be pretty unique historically, where it’s a flip where you have an incumbent losing.

That’s the kind of thing that used to happen in Senate races a lot, and then things, starting with Trump, got a lot more polarized. So what that would mean is, maybe this is the start of a new political era. But I think it would be somewhat of a historic shift if that were to happen.

Politics

Ohio returns as a bellwether

Published

6 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Ohio returns as a bellwether

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Politics

Inside the quiet money pullback — for both parties — in Georgia’s Senate race

Published

7 hours ago

October 19, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The money spigot is sputtering in Georgia’s Senate race amid growing expectations that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff will win reelection.

The Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, did not spend on broadcast television in the state last week — the first week they were off air in the race, according to tracking firm AdImpact. Neither did Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC.

Senate Majority PAC will also be dark again this week, the Chuck Schumer-aligned group shared first with Blue Light News. It was not immediately clear whether SLF would follow suit. The group declined to comment on their future spending plans in the state.

The spending slowdown underscores how dramatically Georgia’s place on the Senate map has shifted, as Ossoff maintains wide margins over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in public polling and fundraising. Georgia was expected to be one of the cycle’s most expensive and preeminent battlegrounds — now some of the biggest outside spenders are pulling back and turning their attention to more competitive races in redder territory.

The two major Senate super PACs have closely mirrored each other’s spending decisions in recent weeks, with neither fully retreating from the state. They still both technically have future ad reservations booked past this week, but those are not binding, leaving both sides with the flexibility to redirect money as they assess the Senate map. And with two weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway in Georgia, it’s unclear whether either will spend any more in the state.

“National Republicans are abandoning Mike Collins as he continues to show Georgians why he’s unelectable and unfit for office. We are committed to seeing Jon Ossoff through to victory as we come to the final days of this campaign,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement.

Collins’ campaign, in a statement, said they were “grateful to every group that’s standing with Rep. Collins and welcome their continued support.”

“With early voting underway, he’s working every day to earn the vote of every Georgian, because Jon Ossoff is a radical leftist who wants to raise their taxes and make their families less safe. Rep. Collins will keep making that case until Ossoff is held accountable on Election Day,” Collins spokesperson Meyer Siegfried said in a statement.

Ossoff’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.

SMP had pledged in the spring to spend $20 million on television for the race, but as of Friday had only spent or reserved $11.5 million, per AdImpact. SLF had announced an initial $44 million investment, but has so far only spent or reserved roughly $20 million.

No Going Back PAC, which is affiliated with President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, has also dramatically scaled back its own spending on the race over the last two weeks, according to AdImpact.

Republican operatives are still monitoring Georgia’s governor’s race, where recent public polling shows GOP nominee Rick Jackson slightly ahead of Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. Republicans believe Jackson’s strength could keep the Senate race closer than currently expected.

But they have grown increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of flipping Georgia’s Senate seat, as Collins trails Ossoff in the polls and the overall environment for the GOP continues to grow more difficult. SLF’s decision to go dark last week — so close to the election — raises questions about how much more the group will ultimately invest in the state.

“Every dollar Schumer spends in Georgia is one not spent on offense in red states. Republicans’ financial advantage doesn’t just show up in more ads, it keeps Dems on defense,” a person familiar with SLF’s spending plans told Blue Light News.

Ossoff also holds a massive fundraising advantage over Collins, who had just over $1 million cash on hand as of Oct. 1, giving Ossoff a major financial cushion in the final stretch even before the major Senate super PACs pulled back their spending.

The GOP has been triaging races across the map: SLF shifted money out of North Carolina, another perennial battleground, while moving resources toward defending GOP-held seats in states like Kansas and South Carolina, where the Senate contests have become increasingly competitive.

Still, even as the money going into Georgia has continued to slow, Trump appears to be prioritizing the longtime battleground.

At a rally in Dalton on Friday, he urged voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, while praising Collins and the state’s GOP governor’s nominee, Rick Jackson.

Meredith Lee Hill and Andrew Howard contributed.