Congress
Trump’s big Mike Johnson decision
After the House passed a shutdown-averting spending bill Friday, a very relieved Speaker Mike Johnson proclaimed to reporters that President-elect Donald Trump was “certainly happy about this outcome.”
Not by a long shot.
Amid the chaos in Washington, I was in Palm Beach talking to people close to the past and future president and called up other confidants afterward. This much became clear to me: Not only is Trump unhappy with the funding deal, he’s unhappy with Johnson, too.
He’s unhappy that he didn’t get the debt ceiling hike he made clear he wanted. He felt blindsided by the initial deal Johnson struck with Democrats. And, in the end, he was unimpressed with the entire chaotic process, which left the incoming administration questioning whether Johnson is capable of managing an even thinner majority next year.
“The president is upset — he wanted the debt ceiling dealt with,” said one Trump insider, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump and Johnson.
“In the past couple weeks, we’ve questioned whether [Johnson has] been an honest broker,” said another.
“No one thinks he’s strong. No one says, ‘Damn, this guy’s a fighter,’” went another reaction I got to Johnson’s bid to keep the speaker’s gavel.
“I don’t see how Johnson survives,” said a fourth.
Johnson and his allies have good points to make in his defense — that the president had unrealistic expectations of what was possible, that Joe Biden is still president and Democrats control the Senate, thus limiting how much could be achieved.
But when it comes to Johnson staying as speaker, all that matters is how he’s perceived in Trump’s eyes.
Maybe this is just another instance where Trump toys with one of his minions just watch him squirm — just ask Kevin McCarthy, Johnson’s predecessor, what that’s like. But Republicans tell me there’s no way Johnson will win the gavel again without Trump not only endorsing him but actively whipping for him.
And, as of this weekend, it’s an open question at Mar-a-Lago about whether Trump will lift a finger to help him. Trump is sitting back and watching the coverage, I’m told, mulling whether it’s worth it to defenestrate another speaker.
“If he wanted to bury Mike Johnson, everyone knows he could — and he hasn’t,” said one of the previously quoted Trump confidants. “While the president thinks there could have been a better deal, he also hasn’t pulled the ripcord. Where we end up in a week or two is largely undecided.”
Inside Trump’s exasperation
Frustration with Johnson started well before this week’s meltdown on Blue Light News. In several conversations with Johnson after the election — as reported previously in Playbook — Trump mentioned his interest in quickly raising the debt ceiling to clean the slate for 2025.
One of the Trump insiders called the borrowing limit a “cleaver hanging over his head in the middle of the year” — something that would give Democrats major leverage to oppose the spending cuts he is seeking, given how thoroughly Republican loathe voting to raise it: “He brings it up in every conversation — he says the debt ceiling is going to be the thing that [Senate Democratic Leader] Chuck [Schumer] uses” to obstruct his agenda.
The way Hill Republicans see it, Trump never explicitly endorsed attaching the debt ceiling bill to the year-end spending package until two days before the shutdown deadline. If Trump — never shy about what he wants — was that serious about raising the borrowing limit in the lame duck, they argue, wouldn’t he have been tweeting about it for weeks, publicly demanding lawmakers act?
Another Trump official bristled at that suggestion, arguing that it’s not Trump’s job to get into the minutiae of legislative strategy: “He said, ‘Deal with the debt ceiling prior to me coming into office.’ … Let’s not play semantics.”
The situation escalated on Tuesday when Johnson unveiled his deal with Democrats, which included a host of measures that had little to do with keeping the government open.
Multiple Republicans on Blue Light News said the speaker’s team let the incoming administration know exactly what would be in the bill — including pay raises for members, transferring ownership of Washington’s RFK Stadium and restricting investments in China — though they acknowledged that didn’t necessarily mean Trump himself knew.
“Maybe they should have taken it to the top sooner,” one Hill aide said. “There was a lot of CYA after Elon [Musk] began picking apart, line by line, on the bill,” another one added, suggesting Trump’s team didn’t fully convey what was happening to their boss.
Trump insiders firmly pushed back, arguing that while Johnson’s team may have provided some “bullet points” and toplines, they didn’t get a full picture of the deal in advance. (“Bullshit,” the second Hill aide said.)
Things only deteriorated further from there. After the initial deal collapsed and Johnson agreed to add the debt ceiling to a Plan B proposal, Trump officials claim that Johnson assured them the votes would be there to get it over the finish line. Trump decided at that point to endorse the bill and pressure Republicans to fall in line.
When that deal failed spectacularly, with 38 Republicans voting against it, Trump’s team was floored — and felt Johnson had made Trump look foolish for weighing in. “You can’t bring the president a deal that you say you have the votes for if you don’t have the votes,” one said.
Johnson could have recovered some favor with the president had he taken one final step, they say: Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance both made clear they’d be fine allowing a holiday-season shutdown to try to force Democrats into swallowing a debt ceiling deal.
Johnson considered it, people close to the speaker said, but he never committed. Like most senior Republicans, Johnson knew that denying Christmastime paychecks to military members or FEMA workers delivering hurricane relief would be an impossible fight to win.
“A shutdown would have bogged Republicans down, taking away our ability to hit the ground running and risked delaying Trump’s swearing in,” the previously quoted aide said.
Instead, Johnson scrambled to assemble a new, slimmer CR deal that also didn’t include Trump’s debt ceiling demand. Trump decided to stay out of it, and it passed 366-34 — with the help of 196 Democrats.
Johnson’s fate in the balance
Johnson has been underestimated throughout his 13 months in office — not only by his avowed foes, but by other senior Republicans who have been predicting his downfall for months. Each time, with Trump’s support, Johnson was able to survive.
This time feels different. And it couldn’t come at a worse moment, with less than two weeks until the critical Jan. 3 speakership vote.
Those close to Trump don’t expect the president-elect to outright call for Johnson to go, though that could still happen. What seems more likely is that, should Trump decide he’d prefer a different partner leading the House, he simply lets Johnson flail as he struggles to land 218 votes.
Johnson’s best hope rests with the calendar and the clock. Trump, I’m told, is aware that an ugly, protracted speakership battle could stall momentum for his agenda, leaving the House in a state of paralysis — just as it did after Kevin McCarthy’s ouster last year.
Two senior GOP aides said this weekend that without an elected speaker, the Jan. 6 certification of Trump’s victory will be delayed. What’s more, Trump is eager to start moving on his legislative agenda as soon as he’s inaugurated, hoping to sign a border bill within 30 days.
“The president recognizes the difficulty of electing a speaker right now — any speaker — is not easy,” one of the Trump confidants said.
So Trump has decided to keep his powder dry as things play out — intentionally so, I’m told. While some in the greater MAGAsphere are fuming about Johnson, key figures such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) are weighing in on his behalf.
The speaker’s fate could ultimately come down to Trump’s gut. As the president-elect told Fox News amid all the drama, Johnson will “easily remain speaker” if he acts “decisively and tough.”
The reality is this: Trump now sees him as waffling and weak.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is planning to put an updated version of a bipartisan housing affordability bill on the Senate floor for a vote this week, according to two people familiar with the bill dynamics and two Senate Democratic aides granted anonymity to discuss ongoing plans.
The version of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that the Senate will vote on will include most of the House-passed language, including a provision restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. The legislation would also add back Senate bills that were dropped from the House package that passed last month, the two people and the two aides said.
The Senate legislation comes after talks between Thune, Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The updated Senate package was also discussed with the House and the White House, the aides said.
Still, it’s unclear if House leadership and the White House have signed off on the legislation.
The Senate and House have gone back and forth for months on language for a housing affordability bill as lawmakers on both sides look for a win to tout during a midterm election season dominated by cost-of-living issues.
Both chambers overwhelmingly passed their own versions of the housing bill — the Senate 89-10 in March, and the House 396-13 in May. The White House supported the Senate-passed bill and then backed the House-passed bill after it retained most of the Senate’s language on reining in private equity and other large Wall Street investors in the housing market — a top priority for President Donald Trump.
The Senate’s updated legislation would remove two of the House’s community banking deregulation bills due to budget scoring concerns, said two of the people familiar: two bills that would modify the Federal Deposit Insurance Act around failed insured depository institutions. The Senate bill also added back a provision to authorize the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery program for seven years, as opposed to a permanent reauthorization in the Senate’s March legislation.
The Senate additionally re-inserted several upper-chamber priorities, including the BUILD NOW Act, which would incentivize communities to build more housing through the Community Development Block Grant program; the Rental Assistance Demonstration bill, which would raise the cap on housing authorities to convert voucher-based assistance; the Moving to Work bill, which would aim to add a new cohort of MTW public housing agencies; and the VALID Act, which would require Federal Housing Administration mortgage disclosures to include cost comparison information for veterans.
The package retains core wins for the leaders of both the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees and their members and reflects input from all four leaders of those panels, one of the people familiar said.
The House Freedom Caucus is suddenly confronting an unsettled future after more than a decade at the center of GOP politics on Capitol Hill.
Some of its most prominent members are leaving Congress next year after seeking higher office, including former chair Rep. Andy Biggs and several media-friendly voices like Reps. Chip Roy, Byron Donalds and Ralph Norman.
Meanwhile, the group’s current chair, Rep. Andy Harris, is term-limited.
Who will step in to fill the shuffling ranks and maintain the caucus’ role as a hard-right vanguard is very much in question — especially as the group faces a potential shift to a Democratic House majority, which has historically made them less pivotal, and the looming transition to a Republican Party without a President Donald Trump.
The group — which is no stranger to reinventing itself — has a number of relatively unknown members ready to become the new faces of the hard right in the House.
— ERIC BURLISON: The second-term Missouri congressman and current HFC board member said he is considering running to be the next chair.
Last summer he was a vocal member demanding the full release of the Jeffrey Epstein files and has become a leading Republican pushing for more information on UFOs.
— ANDREW CLYDE: Another board member, Clyde has amassed significant power by Freedom Caucus standards by winning seats on the Appropriations and Budget panels.
He said in an interview he had not yet thought about running for chair but noted that “you don’t have to be the chairman to have outsized influence.”
— BRANDON GILL: This Texas freshman, the youngest sitting House Republican, is already seen as a rising star in the House GOP.
He’s made a name for himself through provocative social media posts and splashy legislative moves, such as seeking to impeach James Boasberg, the federal judge who ruled against some of Trump’s deportations last year.
Gill has said he wants to emulate Rep. Jim Jordan, the only founding member of the caucus still serving in the chamber.
— CLAY HIGGINS: Another board member and a more senior member of the group, Higgins said he has not ruled out seeking the chair post but is also “not interested in campaigning” for the job.
Higgins was the only lawmaker to oppose the release of the Epstein files. He said in an interview he’s hoping the group focuses more on policymaking in its next iteration rather than obstructing leadership prerogatives.
— ANDY OGLES: Inside the HFC, Ogles has emerged as a serious force over two terms, with his name floated for chair even before the end of his first term.
He also did not rule out running for chair or another caucus leadership position in a recent interview.
What else we’re watching:
— THUNE RACES TO BREAK SPY POWERS LOGJAM: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is racing to try to confirm the next director of national intelligence and end a stand off over extending a key surveillance power before members break for two weeks. The Senate Intelligence Committee will hold a hearing for Jay Clayton Wednesday — less than a week after the chamber formally received the nomination from the White House. Getting Clayton confirmed is a crucial step to unlocking Congress’ willingness to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
— ANTI-FRAUD OPTIONS FOR RECONCILIATION 3.0: Republican leaders say proposals to crack down on fraud in federal safety net programs could be included in another reconciliation package this year. Turns out, a menu of options is developing in plain sight: Just look at the stack of about a dozen bills the House has passed in recent weeks to prevent waste and abuse.
Jordain Carney and Jennifer Scholtes contributed to this report.
After more than a decade at the center of GOP politics on Capitol Hill, the House Freedom Caucus is suddenly confronting an unsettled future.
Several of the hard-right bloc’s most prominent members are leaving Congress next year after seeking higher office — including a former chair, Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, and several media-friendly voices such as Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Byron Donalds of Florida and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, among others.
“We’re losing a lot of talent — there’s no doubt about it,” Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona said. “So it’s just kind of like a next-man-up mentality.”
But which man is very much in question. The current chair, Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland, is term-limited, and a new generation of combative ultraconservatives is ready to step in just as the caucus comes to terms with a potentially changing role on Capitol Hill.
The group will be facing twin challenges — a potential shift to a Democratic House majority, which has historically made the caucus less pivotal, and the looming transition to a Republican Party without a President Donald Trump, who has been an animating force for most of its members.
“Across the country, people know who the Freedom Caucus is,” said Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana. “The next couple of years is going to be important for the caucus.”
The group has reinvented itself in the past, with new leaders emerging as old members move on. Donalds recalled when former chair Mark Meadows of North Carolina departed for the White House in Trump’s first term.
“They’re like, ‘Well, what’s going to be the future of HFC?’ And in came Chip Roy, in came a Byron Donalds,” he said with a grin. “We just kind of kept it going.”
The only founding member still serving in the House is Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who could make a play for minority leader if Republicans lose the majority in November — further scrambling the caucus’ historic role as a hard-right vanguard.
Harris will remain a member, as will fellow former chair Scott Perry of Pennsylvania — if he can win what’s expected to be a competitive general-election race. Veteran members such as Reps. Michael Cloud and Keith Self of Texas will also be influential.
But a number of relatively obscure members are ready to make moves and become the new faces of the hard right in the House.
Eric Burlison
Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri is in his second term but has shown an unmistakable thirst to be at the center of the action since arriving in the House. Currently an HFC board member, Burlinson said he is considering running to be the next chair.
“You obviously have to be selected by your peers, and that would be the greatest honor,” he said in an interview. “There’s no one I respect more than the people that are members of HFC.”
He spent over a decade in the Missouri statehouse before heading to Congress, after working as a software consultant. Last summer he was a vocal member pushing for the full release of the Epstein files and has become a leading Republican pushing for more information on UFOs.
Burlison noted that a future chair will be inheriting a nationally recognized Freedom Caucus “brand” that includes a plethora of state-level and local groups that have adopted the name. He said the original HFC should look at ways to “leverage” that brand but also protect it from being adopted by groups that aren’t in line with its conservative vision.
“We have to kind of protect our image,” he said. ”So I think we need to get that figured out.”
Andrew Clyde
Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia has managed to amass significant power by Freedom Caucus standards by winning seats on the Appropriations and Budget committees, which have allowed him to push for conservative positions on those influential panels.
Clyde, another board member, said in an interview he had not yet thought about running for chair but noted that “you don’t have to be the chairman to have outsized influence.”
He added that while the group is losing some high-profile members, the president’s conservative agenda has attracted several likely incoming members to the group.
“We’re seeing some folks that have not supported the Freedom Caucus before that are coming on board to support the House Freedom Caucus,” Clyde said. “So I think you’ll see [an] even greater presence.”
Brandon Gill
Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas, a freshman and the youngest sitting House Republican, is already seen as a rising star inside the House GOP. He has said he wants to emulate Jordanand has a seat on Judiciary, the committee his governing idol chairs.
Gill has made a name for himself through provocative social media posts, regular appearances on Fox News and splashy legislative moves such as seeking to impeach James Boasberg, the federal judge who ruled against some of Trump’s deportations last year.
He does not, however, break with GOP leaders as often as some other Freedom Caucus members and could encounter internal doubts as to whether he’d be willing to play internal hardball in the same way as prior chairs.
Clay Higgins
Higgins is one of the more senior Freedom Caucus members — and one of the more controversial. The former sheriff has been a prominent proponent of conspiracy theories around the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack and he was the only lawmaker to oppose the release of the Epstein files.
Also currently a board member, he said in an interview he has not ruled out seeking the caucus chair post. But he also said he was “not interested in campaigning” for the job and would like to see a “peaceful transition.”
Higgins did boast having “a pretty solid reputation within the caucus as a thoughtful conservative” and is hoping the group focuses more on policymaking in its next iteration rather than obstructing leadership prerogatives.
“We’re either going to go deeper into being a meaningful, effective conservative faction for the entire country, or we could bounce in the other direction and be more like protesters in the parking lot,” he said.
Andy Ogles
Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee has been a controversy magnet in the wider political sphere — known for a long-running campaign finance investigation that was recently dropped by the Justice Department and a series of offensive public statements on Muslims, immigrants and other groups.
But inside the Freedom Caucus, he has emerged as a serious force over two terms, with his name floated for chair even before the end of his first term. He did not rule out running for chair or another caucus leadership position in a recent interview.
“All I care about is winning,” Ogles said, referring to the caucus agenda. “If I’m better in a second or tertiary role, that’s what I’ll do to make sure we deliver on the president’s agenda. If that means I’m the chairman, then so be it.”
Ogles said the upcoming turnover represents a good opportunity to renew and potentially rethink how the group operates: “We’re going into the presidential. Sometimes you need fresh ideas, fresh faces.”
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- Capitol Agenda: The new faces of the Freedom Caucus
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- The Freedom Caucus is losing its stalwarts. Here’s who to watch next.
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