Congress
Trump pollster finds Medicaid cuts unpopular among Trump voters
A majority of people who voted for Donald Trump oppose potential moves from congressional Republicans to cut Medicaid funding, according to new polling from the firm of Tony Fabrizio, the president’s 2024 campaign pollster.
Two-thirds of swing voters also said they disapproved of slashing the safety-net health program as part of the GOP’s larger effort to pass a party-line package of tax cuts, beefed up border security and increased defense spending.
These findings from Fabrizio Ward, the firm that conducted the survey, come as some Republicans say they oppose cuts to Medicaid to finance that package — but could have few other options than to do just that, given the massive deficit reduction targets lawmakers are facing.
“There’s really not a political appetite out there to go after Medicaid to pay for tax cuts,” said Bob Ward, partner with Fabrizio Ward, in an interview. “Medicaid has touched so many families that people have made up their minds about what they don’t want to see cut.”
House Republicans in particular are weighing substantial changes to Medicaid to help meet an $880 billion savings target as part of the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process. Democrats cite data from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to argue that savings to reach that lofty goal would need to come from Medicaid, the state-federal health insurance program on which more than 75 million low-income Americans rely.
The polling of 1,000 registered voters between March 20 and March 24 suggests that Democrats’ messaging on the issue — which has centered around accusations that the GOP is raiding health care for poor people to finance tax cuts for the wealthy — could be effective in swaying key constituencies. The polling was conducted on behalf of the Modern Medicaid Alliance, of which groups representing insurers, patients, doctors and hospitals are members.
The survey results also could provide ammunition to the handful of Republicans across both chambers of Congress who remain skeptical about the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s ability to find spending cuts in programs under its jurisdiction without gutting Medicaid.
Trump has promised repeatedly not to sign a bill containing a “cut to Medicaid benefits” — most recently in a direct pledge to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who needed those assurances to vote for the Senate budget resolution last week. Republicans are also considering energy and tech policy moves that could yield substantial savings.
There’s talk, too, of reducing the federal share of payments for states that have expanded Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act — a way to recoup savings without kicking the neediest recipients off the program. Democrats contend it will still result in cuts to Medicaid benefits, as states could respond to the changes by reducing services or raising taxes.
And then there’s discussion about rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in the Medicaid system to cut costs, but it’s not clear how much money that would actually save.
“I think you’d find support for getting rid of waste and fraud,” Ward said. “But the whole idea that we’re going to take away people’s health insurance and that’s not going to be a political problem for us, I don’t know where that comes from.”
Ideally, the Senate would be adjourning for a five-week break in less than 24 hours.
Instead, Republican senators are still navigating what Majority Leader John Thune described as a “train wreck” as they face a pileup of legislation, key nominations and public pressure from President Donald Trump and angry conservatives to show progress on a GOP election bill Trump views as his “No. 1 priority.”
They’re heading into Thursday — when the scent of jet fumes typically starts wafting through the halls of Congress — without a deal that would let them speed up votes on a government funding bill or long-stalled Russia sanctions bill.
Meanwhile, Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination is still stuck in limbo after he came to the Capitol Wednesday for a roughly hourlong meeting with two key Republican holdouts.
That said, the general outlines of a deal that would allow senators to quickly get out of Washington and onto the campaign trail has started taking shape, even as senators and aides acknowledged they might have to stick around at least a little bit longer than they’d hoped.
“Don’t kill the vibe — it’s starting to pick up,” Thune said in an interview, while cautioning that “you’re not going to be smelling those [jet fumes] anytime real soon. … We’ve obviously got, like I said, a stack of stuff to do.”
One key issue Republicans haven’t yet settled is a new party-line spending bill that would pump billions of dollars into the Pentagon, to ailing farmers and into some elections-related spending that could take some of the Trump-fueled pressure off — even as several people with knowledge of the discussions said the votes aren’t there.
Thune hasn’t formally ruled out taking up a budget blueprint for the GOP bill, saying Wednesday it was “hard to say at this point” if he had the votes. But he indicated there was progress behind the scenes toward an exit strategy that would allow Republicans to start their recess with minimal internal friction.
“There’s not clarity, but it’s getting less cloudy if you put it that way,” Thune said.
Three people granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions said that endgame would not involve the time-consuming process of advancing a budget, but instead calling up a vote related to the SAVE America Act, the Trump-backed elections bill.
Republican leaders are hoping that holding a vote on the elections proposal, at the Senate’s usual 60-vote threshold for legislation, will let them hammer Democrats as the holdup while satisfying Republicans who have been frustrated over the lack of progress and have threatened to oppose leaving town.
“We’re looking at options there,” Thune said about possible SAVE America-related votes.
He added that it “remains to be seen” if that would be enough to placate Trump-allied rabble-rousers, “but we’ve had a number of conversations now about how we get the votes people feel are necessary.”
A key MAGA ally, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, posted a social media video Wednesday thanking Thune, saying that the conversation has moved in a “favorable direction” and that Republicans were discussing “what procedural vehicle to use in order to get this thing done.”
Thune has several other obstacles to clear besides the SAVE America fight.
Senators want an agreement that would let them extend government funding into mid-December, pass a sanctions bill targeting Russia in honor of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, confirm dozens of Trump nominees, including Blanche, and start work on a bipartisan college sports bill.
The highest drama surrounds Blanche, who met Wednesday with GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Neither said afterward how they would vote on his nomination. With Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and every Democrat expected to oppose Blanche, and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) out for health reasons, he will need to win support from at least one of the two.
The legislative targets have issues, too: Republicans are grappling with intraparty wrangling over hemp language included in the stopgap bill, and Democrats are working through concerns in their ranks about the sanctions bill.
They also want to know if Republicans are going to force them to take a vote on cryptocurrency legislation that many Democrats currently oppose. They are eager to avoid taking that vote ahead of the recess as bipartisan talks happen behind the scenes — especially because a failed vote could potentially fuel tens of millions of dollars of campaign spending against Democratic opponents by industry allies.
Democrats are also looking for signals from Republicans about whether they will move forward with the party-line budget plan. But it was clear by Wednesday afternoon that major obstacles remained.
One GOP senator said Wednesday evening that “there won’t be the votes to do reconciliation and that will simplify things” for the rest of the schedule.
At a Senate GOP lunch meeting, Budget Chair Ron Johnson of Wisconsin presented his ideas for the budget blueprint. It would closely mirror a version that the House advanced last month, but it would also instruct a host of new committees to help draft the bill — expanding the range of issues Democrats could force vulnerable GOP incumbents to take tough votes on just months before the midterms.
Besides ongoing intra-GOP disputes about the amount of Pentagon funding to include and whether to offset the spending with cuts elsewhere, Thune is dealing with senators who aren’t convinced that they should force the issue just months before voters cast ballots.
Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who described himself as a “lean no” on the budget, said his views were being influenced by wanting to protect vulnerable colleagues.
“There’s only like five members of my conference that I care about. and they’re the ones who are running in at-risk states,” he said.
Asked if he would vote “no” to protect them, Tillis added, “I’m going to support my members who are up for election. They’re the most important priority right now.”
President Donald Trump and top White House officials are privately lobbying Republican senators to delay a ban on intoxicating hemp that’s set to kick in this fall.
At the Trump administration’s urging, the government funding patch the Senate is working to pass this week would push off the forthcoming ban of some cannabis products derived from hemp. But several Republican senators are demanding a vote to strip the delay out and let that prohibition kick in come November.
They’re hearing from the White House about it.
Trump called Sen. Ted Budd on Tuesday night, after the North Carolina Republican filed an amendment to ensure the ban kicks in as mandated on Nov. 12, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to describe the private discussion. On the call, the president discussed creating a federal regulatory framework for hemp but did not ask Budd to withdraw his amendment, the individual added.
“I’ve been asked by lots of people to stand down on this amendment,” Budd told reporters Wednesday.
Budd noted that the Trump administration has had almost nine months to come up with a plan for implementing the ban.
“So why all of a sudden pop up for some seemingly innocent delay?” he asked, accusing the White House of instead preparing to “jam this on some must-pass” funding package at year’s end to further delay the prohibition.
A White House official granted anonymity to discuss the private debate said the Trump administration is seeking “a modest four-week delay” through the Dec. 11 expiration of the funding patch “to allow for productive conversations to continue.” Some synthetic cannabis products would be permanently banned in the meantime, the official added.
The administration lobbying has successfully swayed some Senate Republicans, such as Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said in an interview that “the White House has committed to me that they’re committed to regulate the industry.”
Republican Sen. Rand Paul of hemp-rich Kentucky said the issue came up “in a big way” during Senate Republicans’ private lunch meeting Wednesday. Paul said he spoke in support of delaying the ban and said those arguing for a delay “aren’t very rational.”
“They’re wanting to hold up the funding for the government over one month,” he said. “It’s kind of insane.”
Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche is in the Capitol meeting with holdout GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Bill Cassidy of Louisiania as he tries to lock down their support for his confirmation as permanent leader of the Justice Department.
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