Politics
Trump keeps extending the Iran war. Republicans are losing patience.
Republicans keep lengthening President Donald Trump’s leash on Iran.
First, they hoped he would stick to his initial four- to six-week timeline for the war. Then, they gave him 60 days; then, until summer.
Now, battleground GOP party chairs, campaign officials and strategists are coalescing around Labor Day as their hard deadline, according to interviews with more than a dozen people.
It’s different this time, they say: September is the unofficial kickoff of general election season, when more voters tune in and the stakes get higher. Amid rising U.S. casualties, gas prices and fertilizer costs, these Republicans indicated the political risk of the ongoing war is heightening as the midterms draw near.
“By the first of September … it needs to be resolved,” said Dan Naylor, who runs the Lackawanna County GOP in a critical House battleground district in Pennsylvania. “You get more focused on the election at that point in time, and we need to be able to point to falling prices.”
Still, Naylor said he and many other Republicans believe Trump is doing what “needed to be done” in Iran and acknowledged the president is unlikely to “draw a line in the sand” for an end date given the complexity of the situation.
“I believe that voters need some time to see prices coming down before Election Day,” said a Nevada GOP strategist working on battleground House races, who – like others in this story — were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. “If we can get this normalized with some time, we’ll be okay. But if we’re looking at Labor Day coming up on us, and we still have $5 a gallon gas, we’ll be in big trouble.”
A senior White House official said Friday that a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war is close but not final, putting the chances of success at 80 percent to 85 percent, as lingering skepticism hangs over the negotiations. A deal would bring a sigh of relief to war-weary Republicans — and they expressed faith that it would come to fruition. But this is not the first time an agreement seemed imminent, only for the war to continue.
The cracks within the GOP have started to spill into public view, with some candidates emphasizing the need for the war to wrap up soon, even if they agreed with its initial goals.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, acknowledged at a campaign event at the end of last month that the war would become a “political liability” if it drags on beyond “the next couple of weeks.” Sen. Jon Husted, who is running for a full term in battleground Ohio, said earlier this month he’s not sure how the war is going to come to an end but “it needs to,” referring to the stalled and uncertain negotiations with Iran. And Sen. Pete Ricketts, who is running for reelection in Nebraska, said on local radio this week that he wants to see “a diplomatic solution” to the war “as quickly as possible.”
In May and June, eight Republican lawmakers sided with Democrats to vote against Trump’s war powers — extraordinary breaks from the president that included some of the most at-risk Republicans on the House and Senate battlemaps, like Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Michigan Rep. Tom Barrett. (Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie and Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who also supported the measure, lost their reelections to Trump-backed challengers earlier this year.)
Most of those Republican members, including Reps. Warren Davidson, Barrett and Fitzpatrick, defended their defections as standing up for Congress’ authority to decide the length and scope of military action taken. Massie has long been opposed to American military intervention.
“It would be nice to see some more progress on the negotiations,” said a national Republican operative working on Senate races. “The goals are worthy, but obviously, if this is continuing to go on into late summer, into the fall, it’s going to continue to present issues.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Republican hand-wringing about the war’s impact on the midterms comes at a moment when Trump has shown little interest in off-ramps in the Middle East. The president has been vocally frustrated with Iran’s unwillingness to sign on to his administration’s demands. On Thursday morning, he vowed to strike the country “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” before reversing course later that afternoon.
He also said his goal was to seize Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil hub, in an operation that could imperil American troops, but that he doesn’t believe “America has the stomach for it.”
Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who holds significant influence over the young, anti-interventionist wing of the GOP, said on his show Thursday that the president “is a spotty commander-in-chief and certainly no diplomat and obviously not a dealmaker.”
“What we’re beginning to understand, unfortunately, for the rest of us, are not just the limits of Trump, but the limits of American power,” said Carlson, who has emerged as one of the most prominent anti-war voices.
Even if the war ends soon, it could take months for gas prices to return to pre-war levels, Republicans and economic analysts have warned, increasing the urgency on Trump to exit before the last primaries wrap up.
“Veterans support Trump and what he’s doing overall, but the longer it drags out, the economic impact is a reality that we’re seeing on the ground,” said Mark Lucas, a Trump ally and founder of Veterans Action. “And that’s why we’re very supportive of President Trump getting to a peaceful resolution.”
“What good does it do us if September 15 rolls around and prices come down, but people are about to start voting?” the Nevada-based GOP strategist said.
Polling shows that support for the Iran war is weak among Americans — and many say it is making their financial situation worse, a warning sign for Republicans staring down a November election that will likely hinge on voters’ cost-of-living concerns. A recent POLITICO Poll found a majority of Americans, including a sizable share of Trump’s own voters in 2024, say he has not done enough to protect them from the economic fallout from the war.
A majority of Republican voters still approve of the conflict, underscoring their ongoing trust in the president,but that support could slip the longer it continues.
“People have short-term memories, but if challenges lag on and it starts becoming the thing heading into the fall, there’s a liability there,” said Tyler Campbell, an Iowa-based Republican strategist unaffiliated with the major races. “Urgency is kind of important right now, so hopefully it will come to a resolution.”
Since the start of the war, Republicans have offered conflicting deadlines about how long it should last. In March, Trump said the war would be a “short-term excursion”; later, he criticized Americans’ lack of patience and boasted that the Iran war was significantly shorter than World War II or the Iraq war.
Republican lawmakers and candidates, dealing with an increasingly frustrated base, have been telling voters for months that the conflict would resolve sooner rather than later, only to be proven wrong.
In March, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, running for reelection in his battleground Arizona district, told a local reporter that “everybody wants it to end as soon as possible, and that’s my objective as well.” In April, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, up for reelection in Florida, told a podcaster that “everything should be wrapped up shortly.” And in May, Rep. Brad Finstad of Minnesota told local radio he hopes the war “is addressed and ended as soon as possible.”
“We cannot be fighting everybody else’s wars,” said Susan Ruch, the Carson City, Nevada GOP chair. “I do not want it to be a forever war, and I think the Iranians, if they do not want this form of government, at some point they have to figure out how they’re going to do it.”
Politics
It might take ‘a lightning bolt from God’ to get these Senate Democratic hopefuls to bow for independents
Democrats vying for a pair of deep-red Senate seats are facing increasingly desperate calls from within their party to step aside for more promising independent candidates.
But they say they won’t drop out — unless there’s divine intervention.
Democrats Alani Bankhead of Montana and Julian Beaudion of South Dakota both told Blue Light News they have no plans to exit the race, despite pressure from national — and even some state — Democrats to step aside. Numerouspolls, coupled with strongerfundraising and campaign operations, show independents Seth Bodnar and Brian Bengs have a stronger — if still muddied — path to victory in November.
If the Democrats stay on the ballot, it will be almost impossible to claw these seats away from Republicans in Mountain West states that President Donald Trump dominated in 2024.
“I’m a person of faith. If a lightning bolt from God struck me and was like, ‘Alani, get out of the race,’ sure,” Bankhead told Blue Light News when asked if anything would change her mind. Otherwise, she said there’s “absolutely nothing.”
Beaudion has a similar resolve: “To be clear, we are not considering dropping out of the race,” he told Blue Light News.
By digging in, the Democrats could imperil their party’s hopes of regaining Senate control in an already uphill cycle. There’s broad agreement across the many factions of the Democratic Party that a crowded race relinquishes any hope of victory. Bengs has argued that Beaudion remaining on the ballot jeopardizes his chance of winning this fall against GOP Sen. Mike Rounds. Bodnar has maintained he has a viable path either way, and he could be helped out if the Libertarian candidate in the race pulls votes from Republican Kurt Alme.
The deadline to withdraw in South Dakota is Tuesday, and Montana’s is shortly after, on Aug. 10. Democrats across the ideological spectrum in Washington and their home states are calling on Bankhead and Beaudion to step down to help their party bank-shot a Senate majority, with the idea that a victorious independent candidate could caucus with a future Democratic majority — or at least not party up with Republicans.
“The math is inescapable. If it’s impossible for a Democrat to win, it is vital that the Democrats step aside and give the independent at least a shot of beating the Republican,” said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. “Beating the MAGA Republicans is priorities one, two and three. Who we beat them with is pretty far down the list.”
Democrats have already had some luck setting up one-on-one independent vs. Republican matchups in other Trump-won states. The Democratic candidate in Nebraska withdrew to pave the way for independent Dan Osborn — though an ongoing court case from a Democratic anti-abortion pastor could complicate things. And Idaho’s Democratic nominee recently dropped out in favor of independent Todd Achilles.
“Knowing that your campaign is not gonna break through, and just being able to recognize that is probably the hardest thing of all,” Achilles said of Democrat David Roth’s decision to step down. “I do appreciate what David did in Idaho.”
Bankhead and Beaudion insist they can win, even despite the headwinds. Bankhead expects to ride the anti-incumbency and pro-outsider wave into office, and Beaudion credits his relationships with voters throughout the state.
“Nobody ever knows what’s actually going to happen in an election,” Bankhead said. “The people decide on November 3.”
But Idaho and Nebraska Democrats reached a conclusion that Bankhead and Beaudion did not: The party’s brand is so tarnished in their states that the “D” label on the ballot line provides no viable path to victory.
“I am a professional partisan Democrat, and I have every incentive to be on the Democrat’s side here,” said Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, an opposition-research firm. “But ultimately, the priority is to take the Senate majority away from Republicans. In some states, that path is very difficult to impossible for a Democrat. In those cases, it is both strategically and morally correct to take the path that is most likely to achieve the goal we’re going for.”
Faiz Shakir, a longtime adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), did not go as far as to call for Bankhead and Beaudion to step aside. But he agreed that there’s real opportunity for independents who aren’t stuck with the Democratic brand’s baggage.
“Being someone who’s not associated with the two-party system right now helps you greatly in many parts of this country, particularly those that have much more rural and conservative tendencies,” said Shakir. “There’s frustration and anger with Trump, and there’s not as much of a love and appreciation for the Democratic Party.”
Shakir also said that competitive races in these red areas — even if the independents can’t pull off a win — could force Republicans to pull much-needed resources out of battleground races in order to defend their turf.
But he also offered a warning to his party: Talking too much about the independents’ strong fundraising and establishment backing risks tying them to the “donor class” and turning them “into a worse version of what people assumed of a Democrat.”
“You gotta give them the space to be both independent in mind and in spirit,” he said. “The argument for them is truly that they are building a movement in the state that people are hungry for, and that in the support of those people, they’re finding resonance. And that would be the argument for a Democrat to step aside.”
Republicans, meanwhile, are working to paint the independents and Democrats as one and the same. They’re also trying to elevate the Democrats in an attempt to stop the independents from gaining more traction: Trump on social media attacked Bankhead in July, ignoring Bodnar entirely.
“Democrat-backed independents all support the same socialist policies and middle-class tax hikes that made Democrats toxic across the country,” Joanna Rodriguez, the communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement. “Republicans will defeat them in November.”
The inside calls for Beaudion and Bankhead to step aside aren’t just coming from Washington. Many local Democrats in Montana and South Dakota have said publicly they should not continue their campaigns. Nancy Keenan, the former executive director of the Montana Democratic Party who has endorsed Bodnar, wrote in a June op-ed that “there is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race.”
Bennett, the Third Way co-founder, went further, saying if Democrats fail to flip the Senate in November, the blame would lie at the hands of Bankhead and Beaudion.
“If we fumble away a majority because these no hope candidates are too vain to get out of the race, that’ll be a political calamity,” he said. “These people need to understand that they will become pariahs.”
Bankhead doesn’t see it that way.
“I’m not swayed by it because I’m not here for power and money,” she said. “It’s still the old, rich D.C. powerful political circles that are trying to keep more progressive candidates out of the fight so they can maintain the status quo.”
Politics
FCC chair Brendan Carr on Trump, free speech and his threats against broadcasters
FCC chair Brendan Carr on Trump, free speech and his threats against broadcasters
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Politics
Mandela Barnes considering dropping out of Wisconsin governor race
Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and his team are discussing dropping out of the crowded Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The conversations come as Democratic officials in the state brace for damaging media reports about Barnes expected to hit in the coming hours. Barnes and his team have been on calls Thursday to discuss how to proceed, according to the people, granted anonymity to share private details.
The primary had become increasingly messy as more moderate leaning Democrats like Barnes have tried to stave off Democratic socialist Francesca Hong’s rise, worried her victory could boost presumed Republican nominee Tom Tiffany. Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement of David Crowley — who reentered the race in the final stretch — further complicated the moderate coalition.
A spokesperson for Barnes’ campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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