Politics

They don’t like Trump. But they really, really like Vance.

Published

2 years ago

November 11, 2024

They don’t like Trump. But they really, really like Vance.

Since before former President Donald Trump announced Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate, conventional wisdom has held that this wasn’t a great pick. Vance is “historically unpopular,” Democrats have charged, and even some Republicans have been unenthusiastic.

Yet there’s a group of voters for whom Vance, not Trump, is the GOP ticket’s attraction — its sole attraction. These never-Trump maybe-Vance voters aren’t numerous, and they may not yet know how they’ll vote. But in a close race, their decisions could make a difference.

I stumbled upon this group by chance: I happen to know a few people thinking this way in real life. When I sketched the voter profile on Substack, the response was swift and surprising, both for me and for voters who didn’t realize there were others like them. This is a small sampling and not a scientific poll, mind you, but the cumulative nature of the collected testimonials reveals a certain type. “Dang, you described me perfectly here,” commented Thomas, an evangelical dad from Georgia.

These never-Trump maybe-Vance voters aren’t numerous. But in a close race, their decisions could make a difference.

Like Thomas, typical never-Trump maybe-Vance voters are men. They’re millennials, or perhaps younger Gen X or older Gen Z. They’re married fathers (or want to be) who went to college and have white-collar jobs. And they’re churchgoing, but probably not in the charismatic stream of Protestantism where Trump is the subject of devotion and prophecy.

Crucially, these voters have all the moral objections and gut aversion to Trump that conservative Christians were expected to have in 2016. They likely don’t call themselves never-Trumpers and aren’t preoccupied with criticizing the former president as self-identified never-Trumpers tend to be. But they’ve never voted for Trump, didn’t like him in office and don’t want him re-elected.

Vance, however, is intriguing for them, and not only on policy. With some issues, mostly around trade and labor, Vance’s policies may actually be a drawback. Other positions, like his skepticism of U.S. military intervention abroad, might be pluses. But the big draw is Vance’s orientation around fatherhood and family, the way he links children and the American dream and his clear interest in pronatalist family policy and fertility rates.

Vance’s views on “the value of family resonate strongly with me,” said Eddie Becker, who attends a nondenominational church and expressed dismay over ongoing Trump support among fellow Christians and Republicans. “Aside from snarky ‘childless cat ladies’-type remarks,” Becker said of Vance, “I believe he does care about families and values children.”

For Christina in Boise, Idaho, who told me she fits this voter profile except for her sex, Vance’s disparagement of “childless cat ladies” merely signaled his seriousness about family. “I admire his love of his wife, children, Mamaw and his faith,” she said. “I see people balk at the mere idea of children, and this scares me.” In comparison, for her, Vance “is spot on.”

How Vance talks about family is also part of why these voters identify with him, which is a significant element of his appeal. Rob Spangler, a Maryland Presbyterian and father of four, highlighted that sense of identification when explaining to me his interest in Vance. Thomas added that watching Vance “is the first time I’ve seen someone in politics and thought, ‘That could be me.’”

Beyond the family vibes, some of this alignment is as simple as commonalities of age and stage: Vance is a young father and the first millennial on a major-party ticket after decades of boomer dominance. But that level of resonance could’ve happened with any peer-aged candidate, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy. These voters’ affinity for Vance goes deeper.

Vance is a young father and the first millennial on a major party ticket after decades of boomer dominance.

Like them, Vance is bookish and speaks seriously about his Christian faith. He’s the first viable contender for high office with whom they’d like to have a beer. In Vance, they see someone — in starkest contrast to Trump — who could be a friend under other circumstances. Several told me that when Vance is attacked as “weird,” they bristle a bit. If he’s weird, they’re weird, too.

It’s hard to say how many never-Trump maybe-Vance voters there are. Maybe the most useful data comes from a Cygnal survey last month of 1,500 likely voters. In most demographics, including unmarried men and men who didn’t go to college, Trump’s favorability ratings were statistically identical to or higher than Vance’s.

Among married men and men who went to college, however, Vance had a more favorable rating by a 4- to 5-percentage-point margin. Cygnal also isolated answers from “double haters,” the small (and shrinking) subset of voters who reject both major-party candidates. For them, Trump’s favorability sits at zero, but Vance’s is as high as 33%.

These aren’t large numbers. I don’t think this group numbers in the millions, not even at the national scale. But that polling suggests there could be enough never-Trump maybe-Vance voters for their decisions to matter in the five states, as of this writing, with less than 1-point gaps in the presidential polls.

The question, then, is whether never loses to maybe — whether they stick to an eight-year aversion or decide that voting for Trump is a price worth paying to vote for Vance. The choice may well turn on how they expect a Trump-Vance administration to run. Would Vance wield real power, perhaps becoming president himself? Or would he be relegated to frippery and dirty work for a lame duck?

The voters I spoke with were mostly undecided. Luis, a millennial in Virginia, expects to cast a write-in vote. Though he likes how Vance recognizes “the way modern life makes various social ties harder to form,” particularly “regarding the birth rate,” the candidate’s election denial and vitriol are obstacles to earning his vote this year.

Thomas is leaning third-party for president but favoring the GOP farther down the ballot. Christina won’t commit until she’s in the voting booth, but she said she’ll probably vote “Trump-Vance and then go to confession and pray some more for our country.” Becker is still mulling options, but he’s disappointed Vance failed to “counter the Trump cult” in the GOP. “All I can say for sure,” he concluded, “is that I won’t be voting for Donald Trump.”

Spangler, too, remains undecided. On the debate stage, Vance struck him as reasonable and diplomatic, a sharp contrast to his running mate. “I’m still incredibly conflicted about it,” Spangler told me. “My mail-in ballot stares at me almost every day.”

Bonnie Kristian

Bonnie Kristian is the editorial director of ideas and books at Christianity Today. She is the author of “Untrustworthy” and a fellow at Defense Priorities.

Politics

Kansas becomes a surprise Senate battleground

Published

44 minutes ago

October 2, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Senate Republicans are suddenly rushing to save a Senate seat in Kansas.

On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, reserved over $8 million in ads starting this weekend to prop up GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, according to tracking firm AdImpact.

The spending in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in 94 years comes amid a deteriorating national political environment for the GOP. The impact of spiking diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war with Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s trade wars, have been acutely felt in the heartland.

Private polling from both parties shows a deadlocked race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024.

“It’s a perfect storm,” said one senior Senate GOP aide, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “The president isn’t making it any better.”

Lower Costs Now, a new Super PAC affiliated with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ Super PAC, dropped about $700,000 into the state Thursday night, and Democrats are considering more spending to bolster Hamilton. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been including Kansas in private fundraising pitches to donors, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

It’s a remarkable shift in a state that was not high on either party’s target list just a few months ago — and shows the ferocity of the headwinds Republicans face in the final month of the campaign.

“I think we’re on track to win, but I am comforted to know that the cavalry is coming,” said Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party. Herbert said Hamilton’s particular appeal as a pastor who heads the largest United Methodist church in the country, located in suburban Kansas City, made him formidable.

“I personally know people who attend or have attended that church in the past,” said Herbert. “The ones that I know are right-leaning, and so that’s troublesome. That’s trouble — just the sheer ability to reach some of those people who are just always our people. I was telling national groups early on, like, ‘you should pay attention here.’”

Republicans say the warning signs have been visible in Kansas for months as the agriculture-heavy state got hammered by a series of economic blows, including increased input prices from Trump’s tariffs, high fuel prices as a result of the Iran war, his decision to increase foreign beef imports, and heavy-handed immigration enforcement.

As diesel prices shot up just ahead of the peak harvest season, the situation started to deteriorate even more in Kansas, according to Republicans.

Vice President JD Vance visited Olathe, Kansas, in mid-September to campaign with Marshall, a sign of the GOP’s growing worries. Days later, he took a shot at Hamilton during a speech in western Iowa for having “kind of a ‘gee whiz, I’m a nice pastor’ vibe,” but said he “tells his congregation not about the gospel of Jesus Christ, but that they need to repent for their white privilege while eating beef” — a reference to a frequent attack line on Hamilton about his past calls to decrease carbon emissions. Marshall recently criticized the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement, saying recent ICE operations in western Kansas should have coordinated with local law enforcement.

A handful of recent public polls have shown a close race in recent weeks. Hamilton’s internal polling and a recent poll for the Democratic Attorneys General Association shared with Blue Light News found him tied or up a few points against Marshall. Republicans’ numbers are no better: One Republican involved in the race said a recent private GOP poll had Marshall down within the margin of error and said Trump’s approval rating has been underwater since summer in the state; another person said a different GOP poll of Kansas found a tied Senate race.

“I take it as a compliment that the Republicans are now going, ‘Oh my gosh, we didn’t think we were going to have to put money into Kansas, and now we’re going to pour millions of dollars in to try to save Roger Marshall,’” said Hamilton in an interview on The Conversation with Dasha Burns, published Friday. “And I don’t think they’re going to save him.”

SLF’s Kansas ad buy came as they pulled back in North Carolina — the latest sign of a deteriorating national political environment.

And the agriculture-heavy Midwest has been particularly impacted by Trump’s policies. Republicans are currently fighting to hold onto Senate, House and governor’s seats in red-leaning Iowa and Ohio, and even redder Nebraska and Kansas.

Retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said the repeated economic blows to the Midwest were contributing to a series of tighter than comfortable races, including the Kansas Senate race.

“It’s the policies and the chaos,” Bacon said. “That’s why Trump’s numbers are low. Tariffs are not popular in the Midwest and they contribute to the cost of goods.”

National Republicans played down those concerns for weeks, arguing Marshall was still holding strong in polling and dispelling the belief that a Democrat could actually win the state.

But privately, top Senate GOP operatives and Republican senators have been deeply worried about worsening economic conditions across the Midwest, increasing the states where they need to play defense.

“He’s running scared,” one western Kansas Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race, said. “I don’t know if they took Hamilton for granted, but people are tired of Marshall not doing anything.”

Asked for comment for this story, a spokesperson for the Marshall campaign sent a link to a New York Post article that details a $1.2 million buy for an ad that alleges Hamilton failed to report a pedophile who volunteered at Hamilton’s church’s camp; Hamilton’s campaign has previously said the attacks are false.

“Adam Hamilton is a pedophile protector who would vote with Democrats like Chuck Schumer. He will never be the U.S. Senator from Kansas,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Samantha Cantrell.

The SLF ad launching Saturday accuses Hamilton of being “a two-faced extremist,” and accuses him of “founding a radical group promoting the idea that all white people are racist.”

The Democratic Senatorial Committee didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment for this story.

Hamilton spokesperson Tyson Brody referenced a New York Times report about Marshall, a former obstetrician, and his involvement in lawsuits against patients who didn’t pay past due bills as he dismissed the ad barrage on behalf of a “failing” incumbent.

“With this new ad, Marshall is turning to these desperate lies and false attacks because Kansans have learned Roger Marshall had pregnant mothers arrested and jailed over small medical debts, and voted to block the release of the Epstein files,” he said.

Democrats have also hammered Marshall over the amount of time his family spends in Florida, where they have a second home.

Hamilton is considering a late-stage fundraising swing later this month that includes an event in Boston, according to a person familiar with the planning and granted anonymity to discuss it. Democrats are bullish about the state, but are facing a cash crunch across the map that could hinder their ability to spread money so far that it reaches Kansas. Senate Majority PAC was already “actively thinking” about whether to wade into the state, its president told Blue Light News last week.

Democrats are growing bullish about other Kansas races as well. Recent polling has also shown a relatively close race in the fight to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly as well as for attorney general. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Kansas’ 2nd District, which Trump carried by nearly 20 points in 2024, to its extended offensive targets list Friday.

“It’s momentum, and that’s what we’re seeing across the state,” said Chris Mann, the Democratic nominee for attorney general.

A spokesperson for Ty Masterson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, pointed Blue Light News to a mid-September Emerson College poll which showed their candidate leading Holscher 51% to 44%. The same poll found Hamilton leading Marshall 45% to 43%.

Politics

Top GOP groups scale back North Carolina spending

Published

3 hours ago

October 2, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Leading Republicans are pulling back from the North Carolina Senate race, sending a clear message: What was a top-tier battleground at the start of the cycle is no longer worth the money.

The foremost Senate GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, is pausing its future spending in North Carolina and instead launching a seven-figure ad buy in deep-red Kansas, according to one person familiar with the move. The news was first reported by Semafor.

The dramatic change in strategy — less than four weeks before the midterms — comes after SLF previously spent more than $30 million to boost GOP nominee Michael Whatley. It also comes as public polling has continued to show Whatley unable to close the gap against popular former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate.

Republicans are now deprioritizing a state that President Donald Trump carried in all three presidential runs, and that Democrats haven’t won in the Senate since 2008.

“We are all clear-eyed about where North Carolina stands,” said one national GOP operative working on Senate races, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

SLF isn’t the only major GOP group shifting away from North Carolina as Republicans focus on other must-win seats and deep-red states, amid the Iran war, high fuel prices and other economic fallout of the war in Iran.

Earlier Friday, the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity Action left North Carolina off its $22 million list of future spending across key Senate contests, as POLITICO reported. Another major Republican group focused specifically on boosting Whatley — Old North Action — removed $6.5 million in ad reservations from North Carolina’s Senate race last month.

“Michael Whatley is a good man who took one for the team — but with states like Alaska, Kansas, and Texas requiring continued resource commitments, there is only so much,” said another national GOP operative working on midterm races. “Especially against a very popular former Governor in Roy Cooper.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is currently running coordinated ad reservations with six of its battleground candidates. Whatley in North Carolina is not one of them, according to data from advertising tracking service AdImpact.

NRSC regional press secretary Nick Puglia said in a statement that “Whatley will put North Carolina families first by cutting taxes and keeping criminals locked up.”

Whatley for months has struggled to boost his name ID against the much better-known Cooper. Some recent public polls show Cooper leading Whatley by double-digit margins. Private polling has also hardly budged, despite the recent influx of spending, according to a person working on the race.

In a statement, Whatley spokesperson DJ Griffin said the team feels “confident we have the resources” to win in November.

“Roy Cooper recently said about federal elections in North Carolina, ‘Democrats are often ahead until they are not,’” Griffin said. “Undecided Voters who break late decide the election in North Carolina and the majority of those Late-Breakers typically go Republican.”

AFP Action and Old North Action did not immediately respond to a request for comment about North Carolina. SLF declined to comment.

SLF’s decision came as a shock to some, but not all, North Carolina Republicans — mostly because Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been scheduled to be in North Carolina for an event with Whatley on Thursday night. Thune ended up joining the event virtually, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

For weeks, top Republicans acknowledged North Carolina may be slipping away. One Republican who attended a donor meeting with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and SLF during the Dallas convention told POLITICO that holding the state would be “tough.”

“The map has shifted a little bit, and to be fair, we knew that was going to be a tough one from the beginning,” said one GOP operative working on Senate races, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape.

Democrats are not letting up, recognizing that the contest in the purple state could still be close.

“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades, and North Carolina is a 50-50 state,” Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement.

“We’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley will continue to enrich himself at their expense,” Allen said.

One North Carolina GOP strategist said that while Whatley has been a “fine” candidate, the current political climate coupled with Cooper’s long record in the state may be too much to overcome. And while Republicans have repeatedly hammered Cooper on crime, he still has strong favorability ratings from his time as governor.

“He’s really kind of hard to paint as a radical, ’cause, you know, he’s like Aunt Martha. She’s just been there forever. And so it’s just very difficult to get any traction on that, because, you know, people say, ‘well, Roy’s okay,’” they said.

When told that SLF was moving money from North Carolina to Kansas, the strategist responded: “$6.50 diesel fuel will kick your ass.”