Politics

‘The Kamala Harris problem’: Vance’s 2028 hopes hinge on Trump, Iowa Republicans say

Published

1 month ago

May 6, 2026

DES MOINES, Iowa — Vice President JD Vance was greeted warmly by Republicans in Iowa on Tuesday, with would-be caucus goers and strategists optimistically curious about his potential as a 2028 presidential contender.

But first, they’re hoping he can help turn the economy around.

Vance’s fate is unavoidably linked to President Donald Trump’s. He’ll either carry the mantle of Trump’s accomplishments all the way into his own term in the White House — or be dragged down by Trump’s dismal approval ratings, which have spiraled amid an unpopular war in Iran and voters’ economic pessimism.

During Vance’s first trip as vice president to the early caucus state — where he was campaigning for Republican Rep. Zach Nunn at a rally in a manufacturing warehouse in this battleground House district — Vance’s close ties with Trump were on full display. He credited the president repeatedly for tariffs, tax cuts and agriculture industry aid. And he avoided any mention of 2028.

But his association with Trump’s agenda presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition that could make or break his political future, operatives and rallygoers said.

“That’s the risk of being part of an administration,” Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel said. “This is the Kamala Harris problem.”

Rep. Randy Feenstra, who is running for governor, said in between shaking hands with attendees that Iowans “absolutely” associate Vance with Trump and expressed confidence that the White House can deliver outcomes that benefit the state.

“We’re all in this together,” he said. “We trust Trump and the vice president and what they’re doing, and things are going to be great.”

Republicans in Iowa are loath to turn their back on Trump, the 2024 caucus winner who remains deeply popular among the base. Faded Trump-Vance campaign signs still line the rural roads around the state, and Iowa Republicans said they remained largely optimistic that Trump, with Vance by his side, can steer the economy in the right direction.

In a brief post-rally interview, Nunn said part of the benefit of the vice president’s trip was allowing Iowa Republican officials to “share what they want to see out of the next leader in 2028.”

But Americans’ patience for the administration’s economic policy to have a positive effect is wearing thin. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and 76 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost of living issues. And even as Vance blamed former President Joe Biden’s administration for the teetering economy, an April POLITICO Poll found 46 percent of Americans feel Trump bears at least some responsibility for the state of the economy.

And the economic effects of Trump’s policies are particularly hard felt in Iowa’s vast agriculture industry. Trump’s tariff regime blocked off markets that had been reliable purchasers of U.S. agriculture goods, while the war in Iran has spiked the cost of diesel, which farmers depend on heavily.

Jake Chapman, a former president of the Iowa Senate who has advised multiple Republican presidential candidates in Iowa, said the conflict and the trade negotiations with other countries are top of mind for Iowa Republicans.

“A lot of people are thinking about foreign policy in particular, and how that impacts ag inputs and our agriculture economy,” he said.

In his speech, Vance acknowledged that the Trump administration hasn’t fully delivered on its economic promises. “We got a lot more work to do,” Vance told the crowd of hundreds. “We recognize that work. We’re excited about that work. That’s why you sent us to Washington, D.C.”

Still, those negative feelings towards Trump appear to be spilling over to Vance. That same poll found 48 percent of Americans disapprove of Vance — slightly worse than other senior Trump administration officials, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and fellow potential 2028 candidate Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rubio’s ascension in the 2028 shadow primary — both in the eyes of Americans and in standing with Trump’s inner circle — further complicates Vance’s path to the nomination. Eric Branstad, the son of former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and adviser to Trump’s three presidential campaigns in Iowa, said Vance’s portfolio may not resonate with Iowans as much as Rubio’s in an administration juggling multiple high-profile foreign conflicts.

“They’ve watched the secretary of state completely perform. He’s been put in all of the tough spots, and he has overperformed,” Branstad said. “The vice president is performing great. It’s just not been as noticeable as the secretary of state.”

Vance, however, has gotten an early start on building a campaign infrastructure, should he so choose to activate it. He has been a frequent surrogate and fundraiser for the GOP’s midterm operation and has campaigned for Republicans in battleground seats around the country. On Tuesday, he voted in Ohio’s competitive 1st District GOP primary and headlined a fundraiser in Oklahoma before travelling to Iowa.

“He’s the man who’s leading the charge to win the midterms,” Nunn said during his remarks.

Even as Vance stayed focused on this year’s elections on Tuesday, some Republicans are ready to look beyond the midterms. GOP gubernatorial candidate Adam Steen said on the outskirts of the rally he thinks Iowa Republicans are eager to organize around the next generation of party leadership.

“I don’t know why not just start talking about 2028,” Steen said. “We need to know who we’re going to be getting behind. And if they did that now, I don’t think it’d offend anybody. I think it’d be a great thing.”

The vice president’s office declined to comment on Vance’s thinking about a future presidential campaign.

Whether or not the vice president can carry the ideological torch for Trump’s political movement may depend on how closely Vance — or any 2028 hopeful — can align with Trump. Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann said at the rally he doesn’t believe the next Republican presidential nominee necessarily has to appeal directly to Trump’s base to be successful.

“The Republican Party is multifaceted,” Kaufmann said. “We have MAGA voters… We have Christian evangelicals, we have business, we have Libertarians. I think all of them together are going to unite around some of the basic principles that everybody shares.”

Yet being Trump’s vice president brings certain advantages with Republican voters. Even if Vance isn’t afforded the goodwill that brought the president a dominant wire-to-wire favorite in the 2024 Republican primaries, Kochel said Vance “gets one of the gold tickets” in the contest.

“[Vance] will be the front-runner going into any caucuses that we have here in Iowa,” GOP governor candidate and state Rep. Eddie Andrews said on the sidelines of Tuesday’s rally.

But Iowa caucusgoers are notoriously scrupulous when vetting future world leaders. And Nunn acknowledged that Vance will at some point need to forge his own path to leading the party.

“Nobody can walk in Donald Trump’s footsteps, because it’s Donald Trump,” Nunn said.

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The small-town voters deciding the UK’s future are demanding change, our focus group found

Published

4 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England — Voters in perhaps the most consequential special election ever held in Britain are angry, and they really want someone to feel their pain.

That’s the clear verdict from a special focus group by Public First for Blue Light News of voters in Makerfield, the former mining area in northwest England whose June 18 vote could determine the next prime minister.

Some in the group said Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate who is hot favorite to succeed party leader Keir Starmer as PM if he can get himself back into Parliament, might make a difference. But the overwhelming mood during the 90-minute conversation in the Golden Lion pub was one of deep cynicism and bitterness: Life in 2026 is unfair, miserably expensive, and only getting worse, they said.

The goal of Wednesday’s focus group was to get a deep understanding of life in Makerfield — and how voters there are thinking about next week’s by-election. The voters had a mix of political histories and leanings, with longtime Labour voters sitting with supporters of right-wing parties and people who were undecided. But all expressed remarkably similar concerns about the cost of living, immigration, public safety and frustration about an increasingly unequal society.

“These were not a group of people that were thrilled about anything that was going on in Westminster,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, who moderated the discussion.

Can Burnham overcome that deep disillusionment with the political system? Or will Nigel Farage’s hard right Reform UK party tap into the anger at “two tier” Britain and eject center-left Labour from a seat it has held for decades?

Here are the key takeaways from Blue Light News’s Makerfield focus group:

Starmer’s Labour Party has let them down

There was no love for Starmer — and some even felt there was no real difference between his two-year old government and the center-right Conservatives who held power for the previous 14 years. Not one of the nine people in the group said they thought he’d done a good job as prime minister.

And Labour’s party brand has been damaged as a result.

Tom, a father who is planning to vote Reform, said Labour had always claimed to stand for working-class people — but with the cost of daily essentials now punishingly high for everyone in the room and no relief in sight, “How are they for the working class anymore?”

Daily life is too expensive

The participants easily rattled off the exact prices they‘ve watched increase: The cost of living — from a fast-food meal to rent, to a family trip to the cinema — has risen rapidly and become unsustainable for many people in Makerfield, they said. Family holidays they could afford in the past, even for people working full time, are “just a dream” now, one person added.

Jenny, who is retired, said the cost of living has become “terrible.”

Paul, a father who works three jobs, often from 7:30 a.m. until 4 a.m. the next morning, is struggling, and feels let down. “No one should work 60 hours a week and not be able to have a nice life,” he said. “It’s a joke.”

Paul (right) said he works three jobs and feels let down.

They’re gloomy about politics

Few in the group could point to a political leader of the last 10 years who they felt had made a positive impact on their lives.

Peter, who usually votes Conservative, praised David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum on Brexit 10 years ago. A couple of participants went further back — almost 20 years — to name Tony Blair, who ushered in a Labour government in 1997 after almost two decades of Conservative control, as the last PM who delivered for them.

But most had little confidence that any of today’s politicians would make a difference.

“No government is going to change it,” said Paul. “They’re all crooks, mate. Biggest gangsters in the world.”

Bob, who is in his 90s, added: “I’ve not met a bloody good one yet to be honest.”

They’re very upset about immigration

Farage’s Reform UK is surging ahead in national polls and local elections across the country and is in with a chance of taking Makerfield from Labour. Tackling immigration is his signature policy, and it is clearly a huge concern to participants in the Blue Light News group.

The three-letter acronym they kept coming back to was “HMOs.” It stands for Houses in Multiple Occupation — and that means by migrants, in the perception of the focus group.

The concern, the Makerfield voters said, is that landlords and developers are turning homes into residences not for existing local families to live in but for newly arrived immigrants — who are not related to each other — to share. They fear that pushes up rent prices for people who have been living in the area for many years and changes the nature of their community, which is 95 percent made up of people from a “White British” background.

Participants also said they believed many illegal migrants were overwhelming the local health service, making it harder for taxpaying residents to get medical care.

Farage is winning converts who want change

With their anger at the status quo — and demand for a change in their lives and the country’s direction — several focus group participants said they’re increasingly looking to Reform UK.

“I’ve always voted Labour. This is the first time I’m not voting Labour, I’m voting Reform,” said Tom, who is married with two children and works full-time. “They are pushing big on immigration, which is one of our biggest factors.” Reform is not perfect, he said, “it’s more how bad the country’s got over the years with Labour in charge. There needs to be change.”

Dan, another local father who works but struggles to make his money last, said he’d also be switching from Labour to Reform: “I think the country just needs a bit of a shakeup, even if it’s just for one term.”

Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage speaks at a press conference for the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon ahead of the Makerfield by-election.

Crime is a big worry

Crime and disorder seems to be rising up their agenda. A knife attack in the street in Belfast this week, which sparked protests and violent disorder, was at the top of many participants’ minds. They raised fears about crime locally, too, including “feral kids” who harass people in the streets and lead some residents to feel unsafe while out with their families.

There are now fewer police on the streets and they don’t tend to care much about incidents in the constituency’s biggest town, Ashton-in-Makerfield, participants said.

Life isn’t fair in “two-tier” Britain

For the right in British politics, it is now an article of faith that the country is suffering from a “two tier” system in which ordinary Brits miss out, often thanks to politically correct decisions that police and others take to satisfy equality laws.

Farage and Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch have both seized on high-profile cases in recent days to make this point, and in Blue Light News’s focus group, it had clearly landed — even among some who are going to vote Labour.

The participants in the focus group represented a mix of backgrounds and political identities.

“We need to come up with a better system that makes it fair for everybody. It is a two-tier system here,” said Peter, the local butcher, who is switching this time from the Conservatives to vote for Labour’s Burnham.

Many in the group agreed that the problem was not just policing, but also a wider sense of unfairness — that places like London and even Manchester get all the money and attention, leaving towns like Ashton to struggle.

“A lot of the politics, like Andy has said, has been Londonised. We need somebody from up north,” Peter said.

Traffic jams and warehouses

Alongside immigration from overseas, the changing nature of the area and its “close-knit” local community was a worry for many in the group. In particular, they raised concerns that plans to build hundreds of new homes and five “super unit” warehouses would lead to a huge increase in traffic that the already clogged road network would be unable to handle.

The green landscape around Ashton is highly prized, and several people in the group said they did not want fields to be built on, turning their area into another endless suburb like Liverpool or Manchester.

Andy Burnham stands in front of supporters during the launch of his campaign as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election.

‘Andy cares’

Burnham’s record as Mayor of Greater Manchester, the broader area, was seen as a big plus, even by people who were not likely to vote for him.

Participants in the group readily named his achievements at improving local transport infrastructure and hiring more police. Two even said they had in the past gone directly to Burnham with problems they or their families were facing and he had fixed them.

Most of all, there was a sense that Burnham, who grew up nearby and previously represented people in the area in parliament, understands their lives. Bob, Peter, Emma and Mandy all said they were planning to vote for Burnham next week.

“He just comes over as if he cares and as if he wants to sort the country out,” said Mandy, who works part-time as a cleaner and merchandizer. “I just think he seems to be a more down-to-earth person who is looking out for people. He seems more genuine.”

Having someone from the North as prime minister would also help their area, several participants said. “We need better leadership,” added Peter. “We need somebody who cares and I do feel like Andy cares.”