Congress
The Senate megabill is on a collision course with House fiscal hawks
House fiscal hawks are looking at the math underlying Senate Republicans’ sprawling domestic policy legislation, and they don’t like what they see.
As Senate Republicans try to muscle President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for final passage, they’re on track to violate a budget framework brokered between House fiscal hawks and Speaker Mike Johnson. Under that framework, if the GOP piles on tax cuts over $4 trillion, they’d need to match them dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts beyond the $1.5 trillion in the House-passed bill.
“The Senate version adds $651 billion to the deficit — and that’s before interest costs, which nearly double the total,” said the House Freedom Caucus in a Monday afternoon post on X. “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework.”
It’s a wonky hill to die on, but dozens of House conservatives insisted on the deal before smoothing the megabill’s path through their chamber. Johnson at one point told the conservatives they could go after his gavel if he didn’t hold up the deal — what some of the holdouts considered a “blood oath.”
If the House hawks stand by the deal and the Senate bill doesn’t change appreciably during the final amendment vote marathon that got underway Monday, it could force GOP leaders to “conference” the legislation between the two chambers — likely delaying the bill’s passage beyond Trump’s deadline of July 4.
Now compounding concerns for House GOP leaders, who have ordered members back to Washington to start voting on the bill Wednesday morning, billionaire Elon Musk sent new volleys of criticism at Trump’s marquee legislation Monday over the bill’s deficit impact.
“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” said Musk on X on Monday. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”
The House fiscal hawks have been crystal-clear about their fiscal red lines, though many now privately worry that they could end up getting jammed by Senate Republicans — and by Trump — with a far spendier bill. Johnson on Monday would not address whether the pending Senate bill could pass the House but told reporters he’s long advised Senate GOP leaders to hew as close to the House version as possible.
There’s “a lot of game left to play,” he added.
Notably, a group of 38 House Republicans led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) wrote Senate Majority Leader John Thune in early June warning that any changes to the GOP megabill needed to adhere to the fiscal framework laid out by the House. Under that plan, if the GOP includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in their bill, then they would need to scrounge up at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.
It’s already looking to be a far cry from what Senate Republicans hope to pass in the coming hours.
According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Senate’s plan includes around $4.45 trillion of tax cuts versus the $3.8 trillion in tax cuts passed by the House. But the spending cuts contemplated by the Senate GOP wouldn’t come close to making up the difference, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the other official budget scorer on Capitol Hill.
CBO estimates the Senate plan includes around $1.5 trillion in mandatory spending cuts, but that amount is reduced by around $300 billion in one-time investments in border funding and national security policy.
“The Senate bill is currently out of compliance with the budget framework by $651 billion, which is adjusted for dynamic revenue from higher economic growth,” said Paul Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center and a top economic official during Trump’s first administration, in a text. “I think it will be very important to get that number closer to $0 to avoid conference.”
Senate Republicans in many ways made steeper cuts to Medicaid than the House, which would have otherwise helped rectify the difference.
But between $200 and $300 billion in spending cuts included in the House-passed bill were knocked out because they didn’t comply with Senate budget rules. The chamber’s parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has been in constant talks with Senate Republican and Democratic staff about whether provisions in the legislation are fit for the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process.
“What we’ve been told is somewhere around $250 billion, because I’ve heard $300 and I’ve heard [$200], so I’m gonna split the difference,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) of the sidelined spending cuts.
Mullin added that House Republicans should look at the score of tax cuts under the so-called current policy baseline, which assumes that trillions of dollars of expiring tax cuts would be extended.
“I think it’s up to the House how they want to look at this, because they can go in two different directions,” said Mullin. “If you go underneath current law, then you have a deficit. If you go into current policy, you actually have a surplus of $507 billion.”
Still, prominent Republicans such as Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and conservative firebrand Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) have argued that Senate Republicans still need to do the math as laid out in the House budget, regardless of which baseline they use.
Rep. Keith Self, another Texas Republican, wrote Monday on X that senators are “completely ignoring” the House budget framework. “This isn’t just reckless,” he wrote, “it’s fiscally criminal.”
Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Congress
Johnson tries again on spy powers vote amid GOP rebellion
Speaker Mike Johnson will try again Thursday to push the House to extend an imperiled spy powers law after GOP resistance forced him to punt a vote Wednesday.
Johnson is scheduling a procedural vote for 3:15 p.m. and final passage around 5 p.m. He told POLITICO late Wednesday that he believed negotiators needed “a few more hours” to wrap up discussions on a potential compromise with conservatives concerned about U.S. citizens being caught up in government surveillance.
Talks between White House officials and House GOP hard-liners are ongoing, and there’s no deal yet, according to five people granted anonymity to discuss negotiations. Those people said an agreement by Friday seems more likely at this point and it’s possible Johnson has to delay the vote again ahead of the Monday expiration.
Johnson is racing to close out the internal GOP battle as President Donald Trump demands an 18-month extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
The speaker needs to send the FISA extension to the Senate before the Monday deadline, leaving barely any time for the Senate to act and threatening a rare weekend session.
The House ultraconservatives opposed to the clean spy powers extension are trying to hash out an amendment involving warrant requirements, drawing on language from a measure by Louisiana Republican Rep. Clay Higgins.
White House officials, mindful of the ongoing Department of Homeland Security shutdown, are also trying to finalize an agreement so they can tackle a party-line immigration enforcement bill and end the funding lapse.
Congress
Capitol agenda: GOP losing patience over Warsh fight
Republicans who want Kevin Warsh confirmed as the country’s next top economic official are growing more exasperated at a Trump administration probe standing in the way.
For months, outgoing GOP Sen. Thom Tillis has said he’d blockade President Donald Trump’s pick until the Justice Department drops an investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Now a growing chorus of Republicans, eager to install Warsh as Powell’s term as chair comes to a conclusion next month, are joining the call for the administration to end the probe.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday he believed the administration should wrap up its investigation, and acknowledged that Warsh is basically stuck until then.
“I think at some point they’re going to have to deal with the committee, and they’re going to have to deal with Tillis,” Thune said of the administration.
Tillis holds a deciding vote on the Senate Banking panel, which scheduled a hearing on Warsh’s confirmation Tuesday. His GOP colleagues on the committee haven’t committed to blocking Warsh with him, but some are taking his side in calling for an end to the investigation into whether Powell lied to Congress during testimony last year about cost overruns at the Fed’s Washington headquarters.
Sen. Mike Rounds, who has previously declined to weigh in on the probe, told reporters Wednesday he wants to see it dropped so that Warsh can be confirmed.
“The president wants a different Fed chair. And we want to help him get there,” Rounds said. “But that requires right now that they resolve the issue surrounding this prosecution that is still taking place.”
Another Banking Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly predicted the administration and Tillis would ultimately find an off-ramp but told Jordain Carney the DOJ “should drop the investigation.”
And over in the House — which holds no sway over nominations — Financial Services Chair French Hill said Wednesday “it’s time for the administration to draw that investigation to a conclusion,” as “we want to make sure that we’ve got a new confirmed head of the Fed that we can work with in conducting oversight.”
Trump, meanwhile, is digging in and ratcheting up his conflict with Powell. He threatened Wednesday to fire Powell if he stays on as chair once his term ends — a growing possibility amid the Warsh stalemate. That follows a visit that officials from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office made to the Fed’s headquarters this week.
Asked about the prospect of getting Tillis’ vote to help secure his Fed nominee, Trump said on Fox Business that the North Carolinian is “no longer a senator,” given that Tillis is retiring at the end of his term.
But Tillis is standing his ground, Jordain and Jasper Goodman report, and he’s leaving the door open to exercising his power even more.
Tillis also sits on Senate Judiciary, where he will have a vote in the event the panel considers a successor to outgoing Attorney General Pam Bondi. He’s already warned he will block any attorney general nominee who has dismissed the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. And he’s not completely ruling out making the Fed probe a litmus test for AG nominees if it continues.
“If we keep letting this go on, I have to consider other options for really amplifying my concern,” Tillis said of his Fed fight.
What else we’re watching:
— Johnson tries again on FISA: Speaker Mike Johnson is expecting to put a procedural vote on the House floor Thursday to renew key government spy powers after his attempt Wednesday failed. GOP leaders canceled a planned vote Wednesday amid disagreements over whether to allow members to amend the legislation reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
— RFK Jr. hearing palooza kicks off: Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Thursday starts a stretch of seven congressional hearings in less than a week. The series serves as the first high-profile public forum to test the White House’s theory that Kennedy will help Republicans in the midterms.
— Selig likely to talk prediction markets: House Agriculture lawmakers Thursday are all but certain to press CFTC Chair Michael Selig on the surge in popularity — and controversy — surrounding prediction markets. Selig has emerged as the markets’ most prominent backer in Washington, but he’s also planning to make one thing clear to the lawmakers up front: He’s still the markets’ top cop.
Jordain Carney, Jasper Goodman, Mia McCarthy, Declan Harty, Carmen Paun, Simon Levien, Robert King and Cheyenne Haslett contributed to this report.
Congress
Platner raised $4 million, but Collins retains cash advantage
Progressive political newcomer Graham Platner outraised both Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and Sen. Susan Collins in the first fundraising quarter in Maine’s key Senate race.
But Collins, seeking her sixth term, maintains a formidable cash advantage over both of her Democratic opponents that could give her a head start against whichever Democrat emerges from the June primary.
Platner raised $4.1 million in the first quarter, down from $4.6 million he had raised the prior quarter, while Mills brought in $2.6 million, down from $2.7 million in the final quarter of 2025, which had also included her campaign launch.
Collins brought in just over $3 million and had just over $10 million in the bank. She is also expected to be buoyed by a wave of outside money, with a super PAC supporting her, Pine Tree Results, reporting another $11.5 million cash on hand. Platner had $2.7 million in the bank, while Mills had just over $1 million.
Maine is one of national Democrats’ top targets as they seek to take back the Senate, with Collins the only Republican senator representing a seat won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
But it is one of the few battleground states where Democrats do not have a clear cash advantage. The comparatively lower fundraising totals for Platner and Mills compared to Democratic Senate candidates in states such as Ohio and North Carolina may reflect that some donors are still waiting on the sidelines to see which of the pair emerges to face Collins, while others are choosing sides.
Both Platner and Mills have faced challenges, albeit very different ones, in the primary. Mills, a two-term governor who entered the race with the backing of national Democrats, has trailed in recent public polling despite her near-universal name recognition. Platner, an oysterman and military veteran, quickly caught national attention and has drawn large crowds in the state. But he has been beset with a string of controversies involving old Reddit posts that began in mid-October, near the beginning of the previous fundraising quarter.
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