Congress
The Senate megabill is on a collision course with House fiscal hawks
House fiscal hawks are looking at the math underlying Senate Republicans’ sprawling domestic policy legislation, and they don’t like what they see.
As Senate Republicans try to muscle President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” for final passage, they’re on track to violate a budget framework brokered between House fiscal hawks and Speaker Mike Johnson. Under that framework, if the GOP piles on tax cuts over $4 trillion, they’d need to match them dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts beyond the $1.5 trillion in the House-passed bill.
“The Senate version adds $651 billion to the deficit — and that’s before interest costs, which nearly double the total,” said the House Freedom Caucus in a Monday afternoon post on X. “The Senate must make major changes and should at least be in the ballpark of compliance with the agreed upon House budget framework.”
It’s a wonky hill to die on, but dozens of House conservatives insisted on the deal before smoothing the megabill’s path through their chamber. Johnson at one point told the conservatives they could go after his gavel if he didn’t hold up the deal — what some of the holdouts considered a “blood oath.”
If the House hawks stand by the deal and the Senate bill doesn’t change appreciably during the final amendment vote marathon that got underway Monday, it could force GOP leaders to “conference” the legislation between the two chambers — likely delaying the bill’s passage beyond Trump’s deadline of July 4.
Now compounding concerns for House GOP leaders, who have ordered members back to Washington to start voting on the bill Wednesday morning, billionaire Elon Musk sent new volleys of criticism at Trump’s marquee legislation Monday over the bill’s deficit impact.
“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” said Musk on X on Monday. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”
The House fiscal hawks have been crystal-clear about their fiscal red lines, though many now privately worry that they could end up getting jammed by Senate Republicans — and by Trump — with a far spendier bill. Johnson on Monday would not address whether the pending Senate bill could pass the House but told reporters he’s long advised Senate GOP leaders to hew as close to the House version as possible.
There’s “a lot of game left to play,” he added.
Notably, a group of 38 House Republicans led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) wrote Senate Majority Leader John Thune in early June warning that any changes to the GOP megabill needed to adhere to the fiscal framework laid out by the House. Under that plan, if the GOP includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in their bill, then they would need to scrounge up at least $2 trillion in spending cuts.
It’s already looking to be a far cry from what Senate Republicans hope to pass in the coming hours.
According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the Senate’s plan includes around $4.45 trillion of tax cuts versus the $3.8 trillion in tax cuts passed by the House. But the spending cuts contemplated by the Senate GOP wouldn’t come close to making up the difference, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the other official budget scorer on Capitol Hill.
CBO estimates the Senate plan includes around $1.5 trillion in mandatory spending cuts, but that amount is reduced by around $300 billion in one-time investments in border funding and national security policy.
“The Senate bill is currently out of compliance with the budget framework by $651 billion, which is adjusted for dynamic revenue from higher economic growth,” said Paul Winfree, CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center and a top economic official during Trump’s first administration, in a text. “I think it will be very important to get that number closer to $0 to avoid conference.”
Senate Republicans in many ways made steeper cuts to Medicaid than the House, which would have otherwise helped rectify the difference.
But between $200 and $300 billion in spending cuts included in the House-passed bill were knocked out because they didn’t comply with Senate budget rules. The chamber’s parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has been in constant talks with Senate Republican and Democratic staff about whether provisions in the legislation are fit for the filibuster-skirting reconciliation process.
“What we’ve been told is somewhere around $250 billion, because I’ve heard $300 and I’ve heard [$200], so I’m gonna split the difference,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) of the sidelined spending cuts.
Mullin added that House Republicans should look at the score of tax cuts under the so-called current policy baseline, which assumes that trillions of dollars of expiring tax cuts would be extended.
“I think it’s up to the House how they want to look at this, because they can go in two different directions,” said Mullin. “If you go underneath current law, then you have a deficit. If you go into current policy, you actually have a surplus of $507 billion.”
Still, prominent Republicans such as Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) and conservative firebrand Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) have argued that Senate Republicans still need to do the math as laid out in the House budget, regardless of which baseline they use.
Rep. Keith Self, another Texas Republican, wrote Monday on X that senators are “completely ignoring” the House budget framework. “This isn’t just reckless,” he wrote, “it’s fiscally criminal.”
Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
Sen. Raphael Warnock is hitting the road for the last month before Election Day.
The Georgia Democrat’s final midterm campaign surrogate sprint will only increase chatter around the possibility that he might run for president in 2028, according to a nine-stop itinerary shared first with Blue Light News.
First, he’ll touch down in New Hampshire on Tuesday before hitting Nevada on Wednesday. Next, he’ll travel to South Carolina (Oct. 13), Mississippi (Oct. 14), North Carolina (Oct. 15), South Carolina (Oct. 16-17), Michigan (Oct. 20-21), Wisconsin (Oct. 23) and Ohio (Oct. 24-26).
“Senator Reverend Warnock will be hitting the trail to energize voters who are sick of the President enriching himself while ordinary people continue to pay more for everything,” a spokesperson told Playbook. “Tapping into the righteous anger that voters are feeling across the country, the pastor in the Senate will again make the campaign trail his pulpit: calling out Trump’s corruption, while leaving voters hopeful for the next generation of Democratic leadership.”
Asked recently at the Texas Tribune Festival about whether he would run for president, Warnock said: “We’ll see what happens.”
Democrats are eager to win back subpoena power if they retake Congress, but they’re split on how hard they’ll go after corporate America.
The party is united by the idea of aggressive oversight of President Donald Trump’s administration, which will help shape their messaging in the run-up to the 2028 election. But Democrats are at odds over how fiercely to use their probing power to go after the corporations, law firms and universities that courted the White House over the past two years.
“We don’t want to turn into a banana republic where you lose an election and it’s all about retribution,” Rep. Bill Foster, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, said.
“We’re going to have to be a little bit wise about when companies simply did something they had to do to survive this unprecedented level of corruption, compared to companies that actually got on board and profited more by being a partner in his corruption,” he added.
Some progressives counter that a restrained approach would sit uneasily with the party’s base.
“It would be political suicide for Democrats to campaign on fighting corruption and then turn around and go easy on the very companies that are facilitating it,” said Ella Fanger, corporate power policy adviser at the liberal nonprofit group Demand Progress.
Prime targets for some Democrats are the tech companies that have taken steps to be on the president’s good side, like Apple, Amazon and Meta, which have all donated to Trump’s ballroom effort. Major cryptocurrency players, including Coinbase, Ripple and Tether also chipped in for the ballroom, and will be subject to questioning from Democrats.
The late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s networks and associates are also poised for probes — a push that has ensnared big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America in the past.
Sen. Chris Murphy said the party should focus on the nexus between Trump and corporate corruption.
“We should get to the bottom of the corrupt relationship that exists between corporations in this country and the Trump administration,” Murphy said, pointing to questions he’s posed about a tobacco company’s donation to Trump’s super PAC before new e-cigarette rules were unveiled.
Still, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who serves on Senate Banking, warned against the weaponization of power.
“Our focus should be solving problems that we’re seeing happening,” she said, pointing to cost-of-living issues around health care, housing and energy.
What else we’re watching:
— FIRST IN IC: BUILD AMERICA CAUCUS AGENDA — Energized by progress on permitting and housing legislation this term, a bipartisan development-focused caucus is rolling out a detailed agenda for next term. The 40-member Build America Caucus is releasing a 95-page package of proposals, first shared with Blue Light News, that outlines plans touching on health care, transportation, child care and research. The group launched last year with the goal of cutting red tape and regulatory bottlenecks to spur development.
— AI COLLAB STILL ILLUSIVE FOR CRUZ, CANTWELL — Commerce Chair Ted Cruz and ranking member Maria Cantwell might still be celebrating Senate passage of their landmark college sports bill last week, but it’s unclear the momentum will carry forward to agreement on another committee priority: artificial intelligence. Among the dozen lawmakers, aides and industry experts who spoke to Blue Light News, few expect the two senators to shed their well-established ideologies and styles after the mutual win. That could doom their ability to replicate their latest achievement in something as complex and divisive as an AI regulatory framework.
Jasper Goodman, Katherine Hapgood, Riley Rogerson and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.
Four years ago, California Rep. Ro Khanna’s staff voted to unionize — one of a handful of Democratic offices that sought to ride a wave of organizing momentum during then-President Joe Biden’s administration.
Much has changed since, to put it mildly, but Khanna aides persevered and recently won approval of their first collectively bargained contract — the first labor agreement of its kind inside Congress.
“This was four years in the making,” Nicole Waring, a deputy director of constituent services for Khanna and the union steward, said in an interview. “We finally, finally reached the point where we were able to finalize our contract and ratify it.”
The agonizing process of turning pro-union enthusiasm into an actual binding agreement is both a breakthrough for the fitful labor movement on Capitol Hill while also underscoring how that movement has sputtered in the years since Biden left office, Donald Trump took back the White House and unionization moved off the front burner for Democratic staffers.
Since an initial wave of offices voted to unionize in 2022, that momentum has largely petered out. Less than a dozen offices are now unionized as staffers’ efforts are complicated by heavy workloads, adversarial bosses and Congress’ recent record high turnover rates that have led some aides to the conclusion that unionizing is more trouble than it’s worth.
Against that backdrop, that the eight-person union in Khanna’s office was able to win a contract constitutes a bright spot for organizers.
The agreement establishes a higher salary floor and a mechanism to renegotiate salaries if the office’s budget allowance increases, according to Waring and portions of the text reviewed by Blue Light News.
The document also codifies a procedure to resolve internal grievances. When Khanna almost certainly wins reelection, the agreement — which was officially ratified in August — will continue through next term.
“I’m proud of our office for signing the first long-term contract in the history of the U.S. Congress. I hope this can serve as a model for other offices in Congress,” Khanna said in a statement thanking his staff. “We need to be a model for the collective bargaining in our offices that we want to see across our nation.”
Waring said Khanna and his senior aides were supportive and trusting during contract negotiation but noted that, even under those positive circumstances, the effort was time- and labor-intensive.
“There’s a lot of back and forth. It takes time to review each passback of the contract, redline everything,” Waring said. “The biggest thing was we wanted to make sure that this contract would be governable, and rather than just make things convenient and take shortcuts, make sure that it was going to be something that we knew would stand the test of time.”
Khanna’s chief of staff, Marie Baldassarre, said in an interview the process for her office took years because “we realized like this is going to actually impact people’s lives, and it’s a binding contract, and so we have to get it right.”
“It’s just never been done before, and none of us were experts,” she added.
Staffers on Capitol Hill often face a grueling office cultures that can hamstring efforts to advance worker protections. Staffers for pro-labor Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), for example, voted to unionize in 2023 but then faced internal retaliation, according to the Nevada Independent.
Staffers for lawmakers across the ideological spectrum can be subjected to long hours, eyebrow-raising member requests and unrelenting demands that can spur staffer interest in pursuing labor protections — but also fears about potentially hindering their careers.
A person involved in the Congressional Workers Union — an umbrella group that provides support to individual office bargaining units — called the Khanna office contract “historic” and acknowledged it was “probably the biggest win recently” for the broader organizing effort.
“There’s small wins all the time,” added the person, who was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the group.
Staffers for former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) ratified a contract in the final days of his term in December 2022. While that contract was technically the first for a member office, it was largely symbolic given Levin’s imminent departure. Staff for Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) secured “memorandums of understanding” with their members in 2024, but not formal contracts.
“Hats off to them for getting it done,” Levin said in an interview. “In terms of what comes next, much will depend on the outcome of the midterms.”
Levin, a labor attorney, said that Republican majorities and White House have had a chilling effect on Capitol Hill unions and predicted that if Democrats take back the House majority next year, a flurry of labor activity will ensue. He added that several Democrats with close ties to organized labor are poised to enter the House, naming fellow Michigan Democrat and former SEIU organizer Donavan McKinney.
“In this political climate, the idea of getting contracts negotiated on Blue Light News, where it’s hardly ever been done, I think that seems very challenging to me,” Levin said. “I do think it’s great that another office has gotten the first contract, and I think the momentum will continue to grow from here.”
-
Politics2 years agoFormer ‘Squad’ members launching ‘Bowman and Bush’ YouTube show
-
Uncategorized2 years ago
Bob Good to step down as Freedom Caucus chair this week
-
The Josh Fourrier Show2 years agoDOOMSDAY: Trump won, now what?
-
The Dictatorship2 years agoPete Hegseth’s tenure at the Pentagon goes from bad to worse
-
Politics2 years agoFormer Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron launches Senate bid
-
The Dictatorship2 years agoLuigi Mangione acknowledges public support in first official statement since arrest
-
Politics2 years agoBlue Light News’s Editorial Director Ryan Hutchins speaks at Blue Light News’s 2025 Governors Summit
-
The Dictatorship1 year agoMike Johnson sums up the GOP’s arrogant position on military occupation with two words