Congress
The megabill’s math isn’t adding up for Senate Republicans
Republicans are running into a major issue as they try to finalize their sweeping domestic-policy bill: arithmetic.
With just days until Senate GOP leaders want to start voting, they have been hit with a mathematical double-whammy: Tax writers are proposing a package that’s hundreds of billions of dollars more costly than what House Republicans have proposed, while senators struggle to finalize a larger package of spending cuts to offset it.
As deadline pressure from President Donald Trump intensifies — he reiterated Tuesday he wants the bill done by July 4 — Senate Majority Leader John Thune and GOP colleagues appear ready to call one of Capitol Hill’s best-known plays: daring fiscal hawks to stand in the way of Trump’s top legislative priority.
“When the House … is confronted with a binary decision of yes or no,” Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota said Tuesday, “yes is going to be a better answer than no.”
But an array of House Republicans is making clear the our-way-or-the-highway approach could be a recipe for division and delay — including from members of the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives who have long warned they will not swallow a Senate product that adds further to the national debt.
“They got a problem,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a Freedom Caucus member. “The conservatives have got a real problem if it’s not doing what we thought we had in the House.”
That mismatch was underscored by a new nonpartisan analysis released Monday night from the Joint Committee on Taxation, which found that the Senate’s tax package would cost some $400 billion more than the House’s in an apples-to-apples comparison.
That figure reflects pet priorities for Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and other Senate Republicans who want to make sure costly business tax incentives are made permanent. Notably, the JCT figure does not reflect a House-brokered deal on the state-and-local-tax deduction — something that is crucial to a handful of blue-state Republicans but is otherwise disposable as far as the Senate GOP is concerned.
Adding in the SALT language from the House-passed bill — which a handful of GOP lawmakers are insisting on — would add another $350 billion to the cost of the bill.
The ballooning tax cut package is important because House conservatives cut a deal with Speaker Mike Johnson as part of budget negotiations earlier this year that directly linked the size of the spending cuts to the overall price tag of the bill. Johnson even told hard-liners they could seek to remove him as speaker if he didn’t follow through.
Under that agreement, Republicans are permitted to enact $4 trillion in tax cuts as long as they muster $1.5 trillion in spending cuts. Any tax cuts that Republicans pile on above that amount needs to be offset dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts.
Thirty-eight House Republicans, led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), wrote a letter to Thune in early June reminding him as much.
“Our position has been very clear for months now,” Smucker said in a brief interview Tuesday.
“I’m confident that Senator Thune has received multiple messages, not only from members, like the letter, and myself, but also with our leadership, who made the commitment,” added House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas).
Technically, the deal is only binding in the House, and Republicans there can waive the budget provision with the same simple-majority vote they need to pass the bill. Still, asked on Tuesday, Johnson said he expects the final bill to comply with the House budget instructions.
Senate Republicans are hoping to exceed the House’s $1.6 trillion of spending cuts, but are running into major headaches this week.
Some of them are political: A swath of GOP senators, not to mention House moderates, are uneasy with a Crapo-led plan to hold down Medicaid costs by targeting provider taxes, which most states use to leverage federal matching dollars and fund their programs. Senate GOP leaders have sought to allay concerns about threats to rural hospitals by creating a separate rescue fund, but lawmakers are continuing to push for less drastic House language that merely freezes the provider taxes instead of rolling them back.
Other headaches have been procedural, amplified by Senate budget rules: To skirt a filibuster and pass the bill on party lines, leaders need the chamber’s parliamentarian to sign off on various cost-saving provisions, and some have not passed muster — at least not yet.
Those include a $41 billion provision that would shift some food-aid costs to states for the first time. The measure was ruled ineligible over the weekend; but Republicans were informally advised Tuesday a tweaked version could likely remain in the bill.
Asked if he still thought the Senate could find deeper savings than the House, Thune said, “I hope so” while adding that what number the Senate would ultimately land on is “not certain” while the parliamentarian rulings are pending.
Also pending is a final resolution of the SALT issue. Blue-state Republicans who pushed for raising the cap on deductions have said they’re not willing to budge on the House-passed proposal. But Arrington said that the Senate’s extra tax cuts, including the permanent business tax provisions, are “going to probably put downward pressure on what we do with SALT.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who attended Tuesday’s closed-door GOP policy lunch on Blue Light News, told reporters afterward that he expected a resolution of the SALT issue in the coming days. But it could remain live until the very end of the “vote-a-rama” senators are aiming to undertake this weekend as the megabill is debated and potentially amended.
Besides SALT, House GOP leaders will likely push for several further modifications in a final “wraparound” amendment before the Senate passes the bill if it appears poised for failure in the House, according to three people granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
Asked about the burgeoning House opposition to the Senate bill, Johnson said “it’s premature to judge a product that hasn’t been delivered or decided upon yet.” He said he expects the bill to abide by the House budget parameters and that he spoke Tuesday with Thune to ensure “we have a product that both chambers can agree on.”
Congress
Hill Republicans want Trump to solve their internal problems
House infighting is threatening to sink the GOP agenda on Capitol Hill. Now Republicans are hoping their most effective whip — President Donald Trump — is ready to come off the sidelines.
The push for the White House to take a more active role comes as the GOP finds itself stalemated on several fronts with no sign that they will be able to navigate a way forward without Trump’s direct intervention.
The House floor was effectively closed for business Tuesday as days of internal negotiations failed to produce a deal among competing GOP factions, allowing Speaker Mike Johnson to extend a soon-to-expire surveillance law or pass the much-anticipated farm bill.
Meanwhile, there’s growing frustration among Senate Republicans and Trump allies that the House hasn’t yet taken up their bill funding most of the Department of Homeland Security after Saturday’s shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Instead, in a bid to satisfy his own members, Johnson wants to make small changes to the bill, which would further drag out the partial shutdown that is already on day 74.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who is careful to avoid telling the House what to do, was uncharacteristically direct Tuesday with his frustration over the other chamber’s refusal to pass a DHS bill senators have already twice passed unanimously. He suggested Trump needed to intervene.
“We’re trying as best we can to coordinate strategy with the House, but … it’s going to take, obviously, I think the involvement of the White House to bust some of these things loose,” Thune said.
He said to House Republicans who are still criticizing the Senate’s plan, “I guess my question is, what was the alternative? That’s what I said to them at the time. I mean, tell me, give me a better option.”
Republicans on the House Rules Committee agreed Tuesday night to tee up the votes on the spy-powers extension and the farm bill, among other measures, but there’s no guarantee the rest of the House GOP will fall in line Wednesday on the floor.
Trump hasn’t been completely on the sidelines as the House has floundered. He sent a Truth Social message Monday encouraging the House to support a separate budget plan aimed at providing immigration enforcement funding — part of a two-track plan to end the shutdown. His budget office issued a memo Tuesday evening urging support of the Senate-passed legislation funding the rest of the department, which could run out of money to pass employees as soon as next week.
Separately, White House deputies tried earlier this month to pressure House GOP hard-liners to back down in the fight over extending a spy law targeting foreigners abroad known as Section 702.
What’s missing in the minds of some Republican lawmakers is the type of sustained, one-on-one arm-twisting that Trump deployed on House Republicans last year on several occasions — including to push through the GOP’s tax-cuts-focused megabill and to get Johnson elected speaker.
Trump has instead been focused in recent days on the state visit from King Charles III of the United Kingdom, not to mention the military campaign in Iran he launched two months ago alongside Israel.
“Mike’s clearly having to wrestle with his House members, and it’s not his fault,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). “He’s good, but he can’t work miracles. And I think the president’s going to have to step in.”
A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on Thune’s call for more presidential involvement on Capitol Hill.
One House Republican, who has been in touch with Trump officials and was granted anonymity to describe behind-the-scenes conversations, said the White House wants “DHS fixed this week.” But so far Trump’s arm’s-length overtures haven’t worked with House hard-liners who want to expand the scope of the party-line immigration enforcement bill to encompass other conservative priorities.
Johnson has taken steps to assuage the holdouts. He has offered to attach a key hard-right priority — a permanent ban on the creation of a government-sponsored digital currency — to the spy-law extension before sending it to the Senate. The speaker is separately seeking to appease a group of farm-state members by attaching a year-round ethanol fuel measure to the bill authorizing agriculture programs.
Thune, in an interview, shot down the idea that a Section 702 renewal with a digital currency ban attached could pass the Senate, calling it a “bad idea” that is “not happening.”
Underscoring Johnson’s dilemma, the comments sparked a public rebuke from one of the conservative hard-liners, Missouri Rep. Eric Burlison, who said, “I don’t care what Thune thinks.”
Plenty of Republicans — both centrists and conservatives — are growing frustrated that Johnson isn’t just putting the Senate-approved DHS funding bill, the other part of the party’s two-part plan, on the floor. The bill includes funding for Secret Service paychecks, among other key security-related matters.“This is batshit,” another House Republican said about Johnson’s plan to push through several other bills this week but not yet the DHS fix.
House GOP leaders want to put a reworked DHS funding bill on the House floor Thursday — but only after they clear the separate budget resolution Wednesday.
Scores of conservatives have threatened to tank the Senate-passed bill unless the speaker strips out language that explicitly zeroes out funding for agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement. But many Republicans believe those holdouts would quickly cave — and end the record-long DHS shutdown — if Trump would simply apply some pressure.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said in an interview Trump should get more personally involved in pushing House Republicans on both the DHS legislation and the surveillance bill. Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), meanwhile, said in a statement it was “absurd” DHS was still shut down and that it is “beyond time to open the government.”
Thune said Tuesday he also believed House Republicans should “just pass the bill” as GOP leaders discussed whether they could “massage” the contentious ICE funding language to the hard-liners’ liking without threatening its rapid passage in the Senate.
According to two administration officials and a person close to the White House who were granted anonymity to candidly describe the situation, there is little optimism inside DHS that the shutdown will end quickly.
“That is really leading people to question why we even do [our jobs] anymore if Congress can’t do their jobs,” one of the administration officials said.
Within DHS, the feeling is “we all know what the end result is going to be, so just do it — make it happen,” the person close to the White House said. “Instead it continues to drag on and drag on.”
Congress
House panel moves 3 priority bills toward floor vote
House GOP leaders managed to finally clear a rule for the farm bill, a three-year FISA extension and a budget resolution for immigration enforcement spending, after a lengthy Rules Committee hearing Tuesday.
But some Republicans are already threatening to tank the rule when it heads to the floor Wednesday around 10:30 a.m. — leaving a huge task for Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team as they wrangle votes. Johnson can only lose a couple of GOP votes with full attendance for the party-line rule vote.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told Blue Light News Tuesday night the rule’s fate was at risk in part because of GOP leaders’ plan to tack on language to green-light sales of year-round E15 gasoline blend. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) announced Tuesday she would vote against the rule after many of her amendments introduced in the Rules hearing were voted down. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) also suggested in an X post she will vote against the rule Wednesday.
Congress
House GOP poised to vote on pesticide language
The House is poised to vote this week on whether to keep controversial pesticide language in the farm bill after a revolt from some Republicans and Make America Healthy Again activists.
House GOP leaders drafted a rule Tuesday to move forward with the farm bill and other key legislative priorities this week after overnight negotiations.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and other MAHA-aligned Republicans have threatened to withhold support for the bill unless the pesticide provision — which bars states from creating pesticide labeling laws that differ from EPA guidance — is stripped.
Luna said Monday she would “BLOW UP the farm bill” if the pesticide language wasn’t removed.
The draft rule, which was obtained by Blue Light News, would still need to clear the committee and be adopted by the House before Luna’s amendment could get a floor vote.
House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) defended the pesticide language Monday during a Rules Committee hearing, sparring with Democratic lawmakers who slammed the provision as a “liability shield.”
Farm state Republicans have worried the Luna amendment will pass if it’s allowed a floor vote, noting only one Democrat opposed a similar measure in the House Agriculture Committee.
The fight over pesticide manufacturer health risk liability has reached a fever pitch in Washington this week. The Rules Committee’s decision comes the day after the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case weighing whether Bayer, which acquired Monsanto in 2018, should be preempted from failure-to-warn claims for cancer risks associated with pesticide use.
Other amendments made in order to the draft rule include adding hot rotisserie chicken as eligible to be purchased using Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, banning “painful” dog and cat testing, and repealing the transfer of the Food for Peace international aid program to the Agriculture Department while giving the president authority over the initiative.
The Rules Committee also made in order an amendment from Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) to remove emissions mandates on farm equipment after she threatened to vote against the rule.
Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.
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