Congress

The megabill’s math isn’t adding up for Senate Republicans

Published

1 year ago

June 24, 2025

Republicans are running into a major issue as they try to finalize their sweeping domestic-policy bill: arithmetic.

With just days until Senate GOP leaders want to start voting, they have been hit with a mathematical double-whammy: Tax writers are proposing a package that’s hundreds of billions of dollars more costly than what House Republicans have proposed, while senators struggle to finalize a larger package of spending cuts to offset it.

As deadline pressure from President Donald Trump intensifies — he reiterated Tuesday he wants the bill done by July 4 — Senate Majority Leader John Thune and GOP colleagues appear ready to call one of Capitol Hill’s best-known plays: daring fiscal hawks to stand in the way of Trump’s top legislative priority.

“When the House … is confronted with a binary decision of yes or no,” Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota said Tuesday, “yes is going to be a better answer than no.”

But an array of House Republicans is making clear the our-way-or-the-highway approach could be a recipe for division and delay — including from members of the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives who have long warned they will not swallow a Senate product that adds further to the national debt.

“They got a problem,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a Freedom Caucus member. “The conservatives have got a real problem if it’s not doing what we thought we had in the House.”

That mismatch was underscored by a new nonpartisan analysis released Monday night from the Joint Committee on Taxation, which found that the Senate’s tax package would cost some $400 billion more than the House’s in an apples-to-apples comparison.

That figure reflects pet priorities for Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and other Senate Republicans who want to make sure costly business tax incentives are made permanent. Notably, the JCT figure does not reflect a House-brokered deal on the state-and-local-tax deduction — something that is crucial to a handful of blue-state Republicans but is otherwise disposable as far as the Senate GOP is concerned.

Adding in the SALT language from the House-passed bill — which a handful of GOP lawmakers are insisting on — would add another $350 billion to the cost of the bill.

The ballooning tax cut package is important because House conservatives cut a deal with Speaker Mike Johnson as part of budget negotiations earlier this year that directly linked the size of the spending cuts to the overall price tag of the bill. Johnson even told hard-liners they could seek to remove him as speaker if he didn’t follow through.

Under that agreement, Republicans are permitted to enact $4 trillion in tax cuts as long as they muster $1.5 trillion in spending cuts. Any tax cuts that Republicans pile on above that amount needs to be offset dollar-for-dollar with additional spending cuts.

Thirty-eight House Republicans, led by Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), wrote a letter to Thune in early June reminding him as much.

“Our position has been very clear for months now,” Smucker said in a brief interview Tuesday.

“I’m confident that Senator Thune has received multiple messages, not only from members, like the letter, and myself, but also with our leadership, who made the commitment,” added House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas).

Technically, the deal is only binding in the House, and Republicans there can waive the budget provision with the same simple-majority vote they need to pass the bill. Still, asked on Tuesday, Johnson said he expects the final bill to comply with the House budget instructions.

Senate Republicans are hoping to exceed the House’s $1.6 trillion of spending cuts, but are running into major headaches this week.

Some of them are political: A swath of GOP senators, not to mention House moderates, are uneasy with a Crapo-led plan to hold down Medicaid costs by targeting provider taxes, which most states use to leverage federal matching dollars and fund their programs. Senate GOP leaders have sought to allay concerns about threats to rural hospitals by creating a separate rescue fund, but lawmakers are continuing to push for less drastic House language that merely freezes the provider taxes instead of rolling them back.

Other headaches have been procedural, amplified by Senate budget rules: To skirt a filibuster and pass the bill on party lines, leaders need the chamber’s parliamentarian to sign off on various cost-saving provisions, and some have not passed muster — at least not yet.

Those include a $41 billion provision that would shift some food-aid costs to states for the first time. The measure was ruled ineligible over the weekend; but Republicans were informally advised Tuesday a tweaked version could likely remain in the bill.

Asked if he still thought the Senate could find deeper savings than the House, Thune said, “I hope so” while adding that what number the Senate would ultimately land on is “not certain” while the parliamentarian rulings are pending.

Also pending is a final resolution of the SALT issue. Blue-state Republicans who pushed for raising the cap on deductions have said they’re not willing to budge on the House-passed proposal. But Arrington said that the Senate’s extra tax cuts, including the permanent business tax provisions, are “going to probably put downward pressure on what we do with SALT.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who attended Tuesday’s closed-door GOP policy lunch on Blue Light News, told reporters afterward that he expected a resolution of the SALT issue in the coming days. But it could remain live until the very end of the “vote-a-rama” senators are aiming to undertake this weekend as the megabill is debated and potentially amended.

Besides SALT, House GOP leaders will likely push for several further modifications in a final “wraparound” amendment before the Senate passes the bill if it appears poised for failure in the House, according to three people granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

Asked about the burgeoning House opposition to the Senate bill, Johnson said “it’s premature to judge a product that hasn’t been delivered or decided upon yet.” He said he expects the bill to abide by the House budget parameters and that he spoke Tuesday with Thune to ensure “we have a product that both chambers can agree on.”

Congress

Where Warnock is visiting in the final midterms sprint

Published

4 hours ago

October 5, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Raphael Warnock is hitting the road for the last month before Election Day.

The Georgia Democrat’s final midterm campaign surrogate sprint will only increase chatter around the possibility that he might run for president in 2028, according to a nine-stop itinerary shared first with Blue Light News.

First, he’ll touch down in New Hampshire on Tuesday before hitting Nevada on Wednesday. Next, he’ll travel to South Carolina (Oct. 13), Mississippi (Oct. 14), North Carolina (Oct. 15), South Carolina (Oct. 16-17), Michigan (Oct. 20-21), Wisconsin (Oct. 23) and Ohio (Oct. 24-26).

“Senator Reverend Warnock will be hitting the trail to energize voters who are sick of the President enriching himself while ordinary people continue to pay more for everything,” a spokesperson told Playbook. “Tapping into the righteous anger that voters are feeling across the country, the pastor in the Senate will again make the campaign trail his pulpit: calling out Trump’s corruption, while leaving voters hopeful for the next generation of Democratic leadership.”

Asked recently at the Texas Tribune Festival about whether he would run for president, Warnock said: “We’ll see what happens.”

Congress

Capitol agenda: Dems split on probing Trump corporate allies

Published

5 hours ago

October 5, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Democrats are eager to win back subpoena power if they retake Congress, but they’re split on how hard they’ll go after corporate America.

The party is united by the idea of aggressive oversight of President Donald Trump’s administration, which will help shape their messaging in the run-up to the 2028 election. But Democrats are at odds over how fiercely to use their probing power to go after the corporations, law firms and universities that courted the White House over the past two years.

“We don’t want to turn into a banana republic where you lose an election and it’s all about retribution,” Rep. Bill Foster, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, said.

“We’re going to have to be a little bit wise about when companies simply did something they had to do to survive this unprecedented level of corruption, compared to companies that actually got on board and profited more by being a partner in his corruption,” he added.

Some progressives counter that a restrained approach would sit uneasily with the party’s base.

“It would be political suicide for Democrats to campaign on fighting corruption and then turn around and go easy on the very companies that are facilitating it,” said Ella Fanger, corporate power policy adviser at the liberal nonprofit group Demand Progress.

Prime targets for some Democrats are the tech companies that have taken steps to be on the president’s good side, like Apple, Amazon and Meta, which have all donated to Trump’s ballroom effort. Major cryptocurrency players, including Coinbase, Ripple and Tether also chipped in for the ballroom, and will be subject to questioning from Democrats.

The late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s networks and associates are also poised for probes — a push that has ensnared big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America in the past.

Sen. Chris Murphy said the party should focus on the nexus between Trump and corporate corruption.

“We should get to the bottom of the corrupt relationship that exists between corporations in this country and the Trump administration,” Murphy said, pointing to questions he’s posed about a tobacco company’s donation to Trump’s super PAC before new e-cigarette rules were unveiled.

Still, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, who serves on Senate Banking, warned against the weaponization of power.

“Our focus should be solving problems that we’re seeing happening,” she said, pointing to cost-of-living issues around health care, housing and energy.

What else we’re watching:

— FIRST IN IC: BUILD AMERICA CAUCUS AGENDA — Energized by progress on permitting and housing legislation this term, a bipartisan development-focused caucus is rolling out a detailed agenda for next term. The 40-member Build America Caucus is releasing a 95-page package of proposals, first shared with Blue Light News, that outlines plans touching on health care, transportation, child care and research. The group launched last year with the goal of cutting red tape and regulatory bottlenecks to spur development.

— AI COLLAB STILL ILLUSIVE FOR CRUZ, CANTWELL — Commerce Chair Ted Cruz and ranking member Maria Cantwell might still be celebrating Senate passage of their landmark college sports bill last week, but it’s unclear the momentum will carry forward to agreement on another committee priority: artificial intelligence. Among the dozen lawmakers, aides and industry experts who spoke to Blue Light News, few expect the two senators to shed their well-established ideologies and styles after the mutual win. That could doom their ability to replicate their latest achievement in something as complex and divisive as an AI regulatory framework.

Jasper Goodman, Katherine Hapgood, Riley Rogerson and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report.

Congress

It took four years, but a Capitol Hill office finally has a union contract

Published

6 hours ago

October 5, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Four years ago, California Rep. Ro Khanna’s staff voted to unionize — one of a handful of Democratic offices that sought to ride a wave of organizing momentum during then-President Joe Biden’s administration.

Much has changed since, to put it mildly, but Khanna aides persevered and recently won approval of their first collectively bargained contract — the first labor agreement of its kind inside Congress.

“This was four years in the making,” Nicole Waring, a deputy director of constituent services for Khanna and the union steward, said in an interview. “We finally, finally reached the point where we were able to finalize our contract and ratify it.”

The agonizing process of turning pro-union enthusiasm into an actual binding agreement is both a breakthrough for the fitful labor movement on Capitol Hill while also underscoring how that movement has sputtered in the years since Biden left office, Donald Trump took back the White House and unionization moved off the front burner for Democratic staffers.

Since an initial wave of offices voted to unionize in 2022, that momentum has largely petered out. Less than a dozen offices are now unionized as staffers’ efforts are complicated by heavy workloads, adversarial bosses and Congress’ recent record high turnover rates that have led some aides to the conclusion that unionizing is more trouble than it’s worth.

Against that backdrop, that the eight-person union in Khanna’s office was able to win a contract constitutes a bright spot for organizers.

The agreement establishes a higher salary floor and a mechanism to renegotiate salaries if the office’s budget allowance increases, according to Waring and portions of the text reviewed by Blue Light News.

The document also codifies a procedure to resolve internal grievances. When Khanna almost certainly wins reelection, the agreement — which was officially ratified in August — will continue through next term.

“I’m proud of our office for signing the first long-term contract in the history of the U.S. Congress. I hope this can serve as a model for other offices in Congress,” Khanna said in a statement thanking his staff. “We need to be a model for the collective bargaining in our offices that we want to see across our nation.”

Waring said Khanna and his senior aides were supportive and trusting during contract negotiation but noted that, even under those positive circumstances, the effort was time- and labor-intensive.

“There’s a lot of back and forth. It takes time to review each passback of the contract, redline everything,” Waring said. “The biggest thing was we wanted to make sure that this contract would be governable, and rather than just make things convenient and take shortcuts, make sure that it was going to be something that we knew would stand the test of time.”

Khanna’s chief of staff, Marie Baldassarre, said in an interview the process for her office took years because “we realized like this is going to actually impact people’s lives, and it’s a binding contract, and so we have to get it right.”

“It’s just never been done before, and none of us were experts,” she added.

Staffers on Capitol Hill often face a grueling office cultures that can hamstring efforts to advance worker protections. Staffers for pro-labor Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), for example, voted to unionize in 2023 but then faced internal retaliation, according to the Nevada Independent.

Staffers for lawmakers across the ideological spectrum can be subjected to long hours, eyebrow-raising member requests and unrelenting demands that can spur staffer interest in pursuing labor protections — but also fears about potentially hindering their careers.

A person involved in the Congressional Workers Union — an umbrella group that provides support to individual office bargaining units — called the Khanna office contract “historic” and acknowledged it was “probably the biggest win recently” for the broader organizing effort.

“There’s small wins all the time,” added the person, who was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of the group.

Staffers for former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) ratified a contract in the final days of his term in December 2022. While that contract was technically the first for a member office, it was largely symbolic given Levin’s imminent departure. Staff for Reps. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) secured “memorandums of understanding” with their members in 2024, but not formal contracts.

“Hats off to them for getting it done,” Levin said in an interview. “In terms of what comes next, much will depend on the outcome of the midterms.”

Levin, a labor attorney, said that Republican majorities and White House have had a chilling effect on Capitol Hill unions and predicted that if Democrats take back the House majority next year, a flurry of labor activity will ensue. He added that several Democrats with close ties to organized labor are poised to enter the House, naming fellow Michigan Democrat and former SEIU organizer Donavan McKinney.

“In this political climate, the idea of getting contracts negotiated on Blue Light News, where it’s hardly ever been done, I think that seems very challenging to me,” Levin said. “I do think it’s great that another office has gotten the first contract, and I think the momentum will continue to grow from here.”