Congress
The left won big in NYC. Now it has to survive a redistricting effort.
NEW YORK — It’s no secret Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is spearheading a mid-decade redistricting drive to win control of the House. But the results of last week’s primaries in New York City add a new wrinkle to that project: How will he handle foes from within his own party?
On June 23, a trio of far-left congressional candidates routed establishment Democrats aligned with the Brooklyn lawmaker. Come 2028, when New York officials hope to redraw those three seats along with the rest of the state’s congressional boundaries, Jeffries would be one of the people influencing the process.
Any changes to districts won by an insurgent wing of the party — making them more moderate or shoring them up as progressive strongholds — will be closely watched by both establishment officials alarmed by the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America and young voters wary of Jeffries and the party machinery.
“You had people yelling ‘you’re next’ at a screen showing Hakeem,” said Basil Smikle Jr., the former head of the state Democratic Party, referring to democratic socialists calling for Jeffries’ defeat at a primary night watch party. “That tells you everything you need to know about the scrutiny that is going to come to anything he does, including his process.”
When it comes to redistricting in the Empire State, much remains undecided and undone. Midterm results in November will provide a clearer view of the electoral landscape, especially in competitive races in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island. Democratic leaders have not even won approval for their redistricting plan from voters — polling so far has been grim. And Jeffries himself has given no indication of his plans beyond a desire for New York to pledge its sword in the national redistricting wars.
But Jeffries, who is aiming to become the first Black speaker of the House, will regardless be buffeted by competing interests should the state move forward — not least the mutual animosity between himself and the democratic socialists winning races in his backyard.
A proposed redistricting map from 2022 provides a peek at how Democrats believed they could maximize gains in Congress throughout the state. In New York City, that meant dramatic changes to two districts won by leftist challengers last week.
The home turf of Brad Lander, a progressive who defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in Brooklyn and Manhattan, would have been drawn into a district encompassing deep-red Staten Island in a bid to oust GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis.
And the district won in a landslide by Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, would have had the northern part of her highly educated, affluent base along the Brooklyn-Queens waterfront lopped off.
Ph.D. candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier, a fellow DSA member, beat incumbent Adriano Espaillat by the narrowest margin last week. Her district, however, currently resembles what was cooked up in Democrat’s 2022 proposal.
That map was ultimately thrown out by the courts, in large part for procedural problems. But Democrats remain focused on Malliotakis’ seat, and flipping it would require some rejiggering of the surrounding areas that could impact freshmen legislators.
“There will be new lines in 2028 and, generally speaking, the newer members are the most at risk,” said Chris Coffey, chief executive of Tusk Strategies. “But it’s hard to predict what will happen or how the new lines will shake out.”
Some political observers expect Jeffries to at least consider ways to protect his delegation while simultaneously weakening Republicans. Prominent members of the left have already expressed a desire to primary Rep. Ritchie Torres, who handily won reelection in the Bronx. And Rep. Grace Meng won her race by a smaller margin than many expected for a ten-year incumbent.
“You have an opportunity to remake the map and change the delegation in smart ways,” said one Democratic strategist. “The question is: how do you do that?”
Gustavo Gordillo, co-chair of DSA’s New York City chapter, said the organization generally supports using mid-decade redistricting to gain Democratic representation in Congress, but that tinkering with the districts freshly won by Lander and Valdez in particular would likely have unintended consequences.
“Claire Valdez is already basically a packed DSA district, so if they change that district very much, it suddenly makes any neighboring district easier terrain for us,” he said. “I think that also goes for NY-10 [where Lander is the Democratic nominee] as well. I’m curious to see how they navigate that.”
Jeffries’ office offered no indication that he’s thinking about anything beyond giving Democrats an edge nationally. The minority leader has mounted an aggressive push to redraw congressional maps in blue states to counteract Republican partisan gerrymandering elsewhere. And the results of that war will help decide control of Congress for years to come.
“Leader Jeffries is focused on passing the constitutional amendment to ensure New York has a fair and competitive congressional map that can help stop the nationwide MAGA power grab in places like Florida and Texas, and create additional opportunities to elect House Democrats in 2028 and beyond,” spokesperson Justin Chermol said in a statement.
There have also been overtures toward intra-party peace as of late.
The minority leader congratulated all of the Democratic contenders on their primary wins. Lander has embraced Jeffries’ speakership run — as has Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who was a driving force in getting all three progressives through the primary. (Valdez and Avila Chevalier have remained mum on who should lead the House.)
Additionally, the mere specter of shifting lines could create more comity between ideologically disparate officials who would want to stay on mapmakers’ good side. And laws governing the redistricting process also prevent the state from diluting minority representation in certain districts.
Jeffries will be joined in the redistricting effort by the New York State Democratic Party and the state Legislature, which must approve the maps. Both the state Senate and Assembly saw a leftward shift last week, meaning lawmakers would be sensitive to any changes that appear to negatively impact their political bedfellows.
“I don’t know about anyone else, but the Senate is not interested in using redistricting to take sides in a civil war,” said state Sen. Michael Gianaris, who spearheaded past redistricting efforts and will step down from his seat at the end of the year.
Redistricting is a fraught process in any year. Republicans and good-government groups will cry foul at any hint of gerrymandering. Various neighborhoods will balk at being shifted to a new representative. And the results can be unpredictable. In 2024, leftist Rep. Jamaal Bowman emerged a winner from the redistricting process only to go on to lose reelection.
But Tuesday’s primaries have upped the stakes for Jeffries and state Democrats even further, even as they try to focus on the national picture.
“A lot of people are going to be watching who weren’t watching before,” Smikle Jr. said.
Congress
Top trade official to RSC
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will speak at the Republican Study Committee’s weekly lunch Wednesday, according to two people familiar with the plans. The visit to Capitol Hill comes as more lawmakers express concerns about the burgeoning trade war President Donald Trump is escalating with Canada just months before the midterm elections.
House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.) will also be speaking to the group of House conservatives.
Congress
Capitol Agenda: Johnson faces pressure to cut out early
The House is back in session, but it might be a short one.
Speaker Mike Johnson is looking to tick off the lone essential item on the chamber’s to-do list in lawmakers’ first days back: a Senate-passed, shutdown-averting spending bill.
A handful of other priorities are caught up in partisan battles and Senate limbo. Rebel factions in a thin House GOP majority continue to threaten Republicans’ plans of opening the floor for debate. And many Republicans are simply eager to get back home to campaign ahead of the November midterms rather than endure more headaches in Washington.
Together, those dynamics have fueled open speculation among members and aides that House leaders will call it quits until mid-November much sooner than the currently scheduled Oct. 1 exit date.
“So many people are having to run back and forth to campaign,” Rep. Morgan Griffith told reporters Thursday. “I think we can get some other things done [beyond the spending stopgap], but the big bills will probably have to wait until after the election.”
Johnson’s planning to put the spending bill on the floor Tuesday under a fast-track method, since there are reasons to believe it will pass without much drama.
The House agenda for this week also includes a vote from Republicans on a resolution condemning socialism — a political swipe at Democrats. And a potential vote is on tap to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards for alleged inappropriate conduct toward two female staffers following an Ethics Committee recommendation. Edwards attempted to clear his name last week ahead of the expected vote.
Other House priorities are stuck in the Senate or at a stalemate:
Key House Democrats believe the Senate-passed Russia sanctions bill gives too much authority to President Donald Trump, making it unclear it can pass.
Adoption of a budget blueprint for a fresh GOP party-line spending package is stuck amid competing demands from defense hawks, fiscal conservatives and some GOP senators who still aren’t convinced the bill is needed. Senate Republicans don’t expect the budget measure to be brought to the floor before the election, according to five people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.
The Senate is expected to focus in September on confirming Trump nominees and holding a vote on cryptocurrency legislation, as well as trying to advance a bill to overhaul college athletics and the Senate version of the farm bill.
With those items deep in negotiations, there’s little incentive for House members to hang around to see if the Senate will play ball once it returns Sept. 14 for a brief three-week session.
Both chambers are already scheduled for recess next week following the Labor Day holiday, and many Republicans are expected to travel to Dallas then for the GOP’s midterm convention.
What else we’re watching:
— LAWMAKERS JOCKEY FOR E&C SPOTS: Lawmakers are already lobbying leadership to secure at least eight empty slots opening up on the powerful Energy and Commerce panel next year. Democrats Reps. Melanie Stansbury, Maxine Dexter, Jill Tokuda, Eric Sorensen and Luz Rivas have thrown their hats in the ring so far. Meanwhile, Republican Reps. Bob Onder and Brad Knott are working to convince leadership to put them on the panel.
— MILITARY WIDOWS STUCK IN BILL BRAWL: Military widows are caught in the middle of a bigger battle over how veterans should get compensated for their service. That House brawl over veteran benefits could ruin the last, best chance for widows to fix a decades-old law that strips away support benefits if they remarry. House lawmakers are eyeing mid-September for another vote on the legislation after a July vote was derailed amid opposition. If that’s successful, Senate Republican leaders have promised to fast-track the bill in an effort to send it to the president’s desk by the end of the year. If House lawmakers can’t, the measure will likely be shelved until at least the next Congress.
Mia McCarthy, Jordain Carney, Kelsey Brugger and Leo Shane III contributed to this report.
Congress
The House is back in session. Many Republicans hope it won’t be for long.
The House is back in session Monday for the first time in five weeks. It’s not clear how long members will stick around.
Speaker Mike Johnson is hoping to tick the lone essential item off the chamber’s to-do list in lawmakers’ first days back: sending a shutdown-averting spending bill to President Donald Trump’s desk. Otherwise, the Capitol Hill agenda is devoid of must-pass legislation until later in the year.
Meanwhile, the thin GOP majority has had trouble opening the House floor for debate on any number of legislative priorities, and many Republicans lawmakers are simply eager to get back home ahead of the November midterms rather than endure more headaches in Washington.
Together that has fueled open speculation among members and aides that House leaders will call it quits until mid-November much sooner than the currently scheduled Oct. 1 exit date.
“So many people are having to run back and forth to campaign,” Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) told reporters Thursday. “I think we can get some other things done [beyond the spending stopgap], but the big bills will probably have to wait until after the election.”
Another House Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, was more blunt: “I think we have very little to do.” A third member, running for reelection in a competitive district, said in a text message, “I’d be happy to be sent home early!”
The agitation for an early exit is likely to grow louder if Johnson can win approval as planned this week for the Senate-passed government funding bill, which would postpone a possible shutdown from midnight Sept. 30 to Dec. 11. The funding patch also would extend the deadline to reauthorize lapsing surface transportation authorities.
GOP leaders plan to put the bill on the floor Tuesday under a fast-track method requiring a two-thirds majority vote, and there are reasons to believe it will pass without much drama. Trump and key congressional Democrats have endorsed the 10-week punt.
That bipartisan support is expected to overcome Republicans concerns over a Senate-inserted provision backed by the White House to delay the start of an intoxicating hemp product ban, as well as a provision favored by Democrats to temporarily hold up a Trump administration proposal to put political appointees in charge of federal grant approvals.
“I would say that we’re going to avoid any kind of shutdown, and we’ll be in good shape going into the elections,” Rep. Riley Moore of West Virginia, a GOP appropriator, told reporters earlier this month.
Lawmakers have already punted other major deadlines, leaving members eyeing the post-election “lame duck” session for substantive legislating. But there are also lingering questions about whether House Republican leaders can move forward with a partisan agenda in any case.
Rebel factions upset over matters ranging from ethanol fuel regulations to immigration policy votes have frustrated Johnson’s attempts all summer to pass procedural measures necessary to bring GOP bills to the floor. Many Republicans believe those dynamics will continue into September, leaving the fast-tracked bills passed under “suspension of the rules” as leaders’ only legislative option.
“I don’t think many things are going to pass except for suspension bills,” said another House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the GOP’s expectations for the pre-election session.
While leaders and their top aides acknowledge no current plans to send members home early, a frozen floor could quickly lead them to determine otherwise. At the same time, some Republicans are wary of beating an early retreat after many of them hammered the Senate for leaving town earlier this month without taking up key House-passed bills.
“We need to campaign, but it’s not a great look for us to not come into town and work,” a fifth House Republican granted anonymity said. The member, representing a safe red district, acknowledged that others in more competitive districts likely feel differently.
“People already think we are on vacation when we’re home,” the lawmaker added. “What kind of damage does it do if we leave D.C. again?”
Both chambers will be out of session next week following the Labor Day holiday, and many Republican lawmakers are expected to travel to Dallas at the end of that week for the GOP’s midterm convention. Republicans are looking to amp up one of their top campaign messages beforehand — that Democrats are left-wing extremists — by forcing a vote this week on a resolution condemning socialism “in all its forms.”
The House could also vote this week to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) for inappropriate conduct toward two female staffers following an Ethics Committee recommendation. Edwards, who dropped his bid for reelection two days after the panel issued a lengthy report, attempted to clear his name to his colleagues last week ahead of the expected vote.
House GOP leaders could also put a Senate-passed Russian sanctions bill on the floor before the end of the month, though it is unclear whether it can pass. Many House Democrats — including Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the party’s leader on the Foreign Affairs Committee — believe the bill would give too much authority to Trump.
But with many other House priorities currently in Senate limbo, there could be little incentive for members to hang around to wait to see if the Senate will act once it returns Sept. 14 for a brief three-week session.
House Republicans rushed before their summer recess to adopt a budget blueprint for a fresh party-line spending package, but it’s currently stuck across the Capitol amid competing demands from defense hawks, fiscal conservatives and some GOP senators who aren’t convinced another such bill is needed at all.
Senate Republicans don’t expect the budget measure to be brought to the floor before the election, according to five people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions.
House Republicans appear to be acknowledging that reality. When asked if he was confident the Senate would take up a third reconciliation bill, Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) told reporters this month that “‘confident’ is probably the wrong word.”
Instead, the Senate is expected to focus in September on confirming Trump’s nominees and holding a vote on cryptocurrency legislation, as well as trying to advance a bill to overhaul college athletics and the Senate version of the farm bill.
Some House Republicans, including Majority Whip Tom Emmer, have been trying to build public pressure on the Senate to pass the crypto bill known as the Clarity Act for months. But a mid-September vote on that measure is likely to fail. And while negotiations continue over the Senate’s college sports bill, a bill on the same topic in the House has stalled out, giving lawmakers little reason to stay to see if a Senate deal comes together.
As for the farm bill, the House passed its version earlier this year largely along party lines, while the Senate version failed to advance in committee earlier this month due to GOP absences and Democratic opposition. Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.)said he plans to try again in September.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is eager to advance the farm bill before the election, but doing so will require Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to return from a monthslong absence — or Democrats to agree to a deal.
While Republicans are hopeful that McConnell could come back in September, any final agreement on the major agriculture package is expected to wait until after Election Day.
“I think our Democrat colleagues are probably saying we want to wait until after the election to find out what the House of Representatives is going to look like, the Senate is going to look like,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said at an agricultural conference in South Dakota earlier this month.
Riley Rogerson contributed to this report.
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