The Dictatorship
The fate of Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ now rests with one Texas Republican
UPDATE (May 16, 2025, 12:45 p.m. ET):The House Budget Committee failed to advance the GOP’s mega-bill on Friday morning after five Republican hardliners voted against it for not cutting spending fast enough.
Friday is going to be a tough day for House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington, R-Texas. For the past few weeks, his fellow committee chairs have been passing along the various components that will form the legislative backbone to President Donald Trump’s agenda and extend the 2017 tax cuts due to expire next year. It’s up to Arrington’s committee to pull those assorted pieces together into one coherent bill that will be able to pass the House — and the odds aren’t exactly stacked in his favor.
All the House committees have filled in the blanks now, passing their final works on to Arrington to assemble.
Arrington’s first attempt at passing a budget framework to fit Trump’s demand for “one big, beautiful bill” hit a roadblock in February when the Senate balked at the deep spending cuts it required. It took another two months of work before the two chambers settled on a joint budget reconciliation bill that would let them move forward on a party-line basis, freezing Democrats out of the process. The framework that passed provided instructions to the relevant congressional committees on how much they should spend and cut from the programs under their purview, leaving the details to the chairs to work out.
All the House committees have filled in the blanks now, passing their final works on to Arrington to assemble. While the bills in question may have passed each panel, the sum will prove to be more challenging than its parts. Namely because, as I’ve noted beforethere are different factions within the House GOP with different priorities for the final bill, some of which are diametrically opposed to each other.
The most vocal wing are the blue state Republicans who want a bigger deduction for state and local taxesknown as SALT, included in the Ways and Means Committee’s section of the package. Five of them have dug in their heels, calling the increased $30,000 cap included in the bill a nonstarter. As a reminder, if all members are present, it will only take four Republicans voting against the bill to tank it, given united Democratic opposition.
Less cohesive are the GOP members concerned about the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s proposed cuts. More than a dozen House Republicans want to keep the clean energy credits that the bill nixes, which have been a boon in many of their districts. There are similar concerns about the Agriculture Committee’s plans to shift costs for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to the stateswhich could see either massive holes blown in state budgets or hundreds of thousands removed from the program.
Most of those issues could be resolved were it not for the group with the most leverage: the House Freedom Caucus. Many of the far-right group’s members think the committees included too much budget gimmickry and not enough tangible spending cuts. They’re particularly irate that the changes to Medicaid included in the Energy and Commerce bill don’t go far enough to reduce spending on the program, despite it already potentially kicking millions of people off their health care.
Most of those issues could be resolved were it not for the group with the most leverage: the House Freedom Caucus.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., huddled with many of the concerned members in hopes of tamping down a potential revolt on the House floor. But as Politico reported Thursday afternoonthere might not even be enough votes to get the bill through the Budget Committee. Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Roy Norman of South Carolina said they won’t vote for the current bill as it doesn’t make the draconian cuts they deem necessary to earn their support. Both are Freedom Caucus members and also sit on the House Rules Committee — the next hurdle that would have to be overcome before the full House could vote.
And that’s just the problems with getting it through the House. There are already rumbles of concern coming from the Senate over the scope of the spending cuts their counterparts are making across the Capitol. Once the GOP senators have made their changes, who knows how much more wrangling will need to be done to get the bill over the line.
For Arrington, though, his chief concern is getting through Friday with a bill to hand off to the Rules Committee. Johnson still wants to get the full package passed before Memorial Day. There’s no firm Plan B in place for what happens if the big, beautiful bill as it stands fails to garner enough support by then. That doesn’t leave Arrington much time at all to solve this vexing a puzzle, one where one misplaced piece could cause the whole thing to collapse entirely.
Hayes Brown is a writer and editor for BLN Daily, where he helps frame the news of the day for readers. He was previously at BuzzFeed News and holds a degree in international relations from Michigan State University.
Iran and the United States reached a deal Sunday aimed at ending the Middle East war, according to President Donald Trump and Tehran’s deputy foreign minister, marking a major breakthrough after months of conflict and on-again, off-again negotiations.
The statements from Trump and Tehran raised hopes for an end to fighting that has left more than 7,500 dead, most of them in Lebanon and Iran, and rocked the global oil market.
“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” Trump announced on Truth Social. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
Oil prices fell in the hours following the announcement, with U.S. crude oil tumbling nearly 5%. Stock futures rose and Asian-Pacific stock markets traded higher Monday morning as investors appeared hopeful for a long-term peace deal.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed on Iranian state media that a deal had been reached and would be signed Friday in Switzerland. He said Iran’s agreement came after 14 hours of talks with mediators from Qatar.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country has also worked as a mediator, announced on social media that “both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” where Israel has been battling the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.
“With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week,” Sharif said. “These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.”
The announcement comes after weeks of intensive negotiations mediated by regional partners after both sides had signaled in recent days that an agreement was close.
The memorandum is not a final peace treaty. Instead, it outlines commitments by both sides as negotiators work toward a broader agreement, establishing a framework for a 60-day negotiating period. That window is meant for U.S. and Iranian officials to resolve outstanding disputes and negotiate a more comprehensive agreement.
A senior administration official told reporters on a background call Friday that the framework includes commitments related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
The proposed agreement, the senior administration official said, also calls for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, with highly enriched nuclear material to be destroyed on-site by the U.S. and a guarantee of “long-term peace in the region.”
A senior Iranian officialhowever, told Reuters that the U.S. had agreed to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a final deal.
“I am somewhat concerned that Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said as news of the deal emerged Sunday.
The senior Trump administration official said the agreement would include Israel and Iran’s terror proxies — a notable element given that renewed attacks between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon on Sunday threatened to derail the deal entirely.
The war began Feb. 28 with joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that killed hundreds, including Iran’s longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump and others in his administration repeatedly promised it would be over in weeks and that deals to pause the fighting were imminent, only to walk back those statements.
Early in the fighting, dozens of children died when an airstrike destroyed a school. Despite reports from within the U.S. intelligence community that American forces were likely responsible, and that faulty intelligence may have played a part, the Pentagon has yet to acknowledge that, saying only that it was under investigation.
As combat wore on, Iran repeatedly fired missiles and drones at U.S. allies in the region and attacked ships trying to transit the Straight of Hormuz. Israel bombarded Beirut and other areas and sent ground troops into southern Lebanon in pursuit of Hezbollah leadership.
As gas prices in the U.S. soared, Trump’s approval ratings plummeted, piling tension on his relationship with congressional Republicans, especially those up for re-election.
Expectations for a deal had risen in recent days as officials from the U.S. and Pakistan, which has been acting as a mediator, indicated that progress was being made behind the scenes.
Though the deal is set to be signed next Friday, Trump said over the weekend that he expected a deal would be signed Sunday, which he first declared on social media a day earlier. He also shared a post from Sharif — who has played a key mediating role — announcing that an agreement was expected to be finalized “in the next 24 hours.”
Iranian officials poured cold water on the expected deal up until the last minute. Citing state media, Reuters reported Saturday that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei denied that the memorandum of understanding would be signed Sunday, which also happened to be Trump’s 80th birthday.
“We will have to wait and see about the exact date of the signing of the memorandum of understanding, although it will not be tomorrow,” Baqaei said, according to Reuters.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
Ebony Davis is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW based in Washington, D.C. She previously worked at BLN as a campaign reporter covering elections and politics.
Julia Jester covers politics for MS NOW and is based in Washington, D.C.
The Dictatorship
Cage fighting, anyone? Welcome to Trump’s 80th birthday party on the White House lawn.
President Donald Trump is celebrating his milestone 80th birthday on Sunday with a spectacle of men cage fighting on the White House South Lawn.
“UFC Freedom 250,” a series of invite-only mixed martial art fighting competitions that are part of the Trump administration’s year-long ‘America250’ celebrations, brought lots of fanfare, and plenty of controversy.
The president is marking his new status as an octogenarian alongside administration officials, donors and family, despite criticism of the event’s venue, along with its potential to financially benefit those involved.
Trump and his friend Dana White, Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO, have repeatedly claimed that the spectacle was only coincidentally timed with the president’s birthday. “It happens to be my birthday, but I didn’t do it for that reason,” Trump said. “‘Sir, we like the June 14 date.’ I said, ‘Yeah, that’s my birthday,’” he recounted. “They didn’t know it, but they picked it.”
But Vice President JD Vance wished his boss a happy birthdaysaying, “Looking forward to celebrating later today at the UFC fight!”
“Happy Birthday to the GOAT,” Vance wrote in an X post.
Several members of the Trump family were spotted in Washington for the president’s birthday weekend, including his daughter Ivanka Trump, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and granddaughter Kai Trump. First lady Melania Trump was also set to join the wrestling festivities on the South Lawn, according to a White House official. The president was slated to have dinner with his family before the birthday brawl, the White House said.
Notably, Kushner — a businessman with investments in the Middle East who is not currently employed by the administration — is playing an active role in negotiations to end the war with Iran, which Trump telegraphed he hoped would reach a new breakthrough on Sunday with the possible signing of a new negotiating framework.
The podcast and social media stars who were instrumental to Trump’s 2024 election victory, including Joe Rogan, came to Washington for the spectacle. Rogan, a longtime UFC commentator, previously criticized the decision to hold the fight outdoors because of potentially dangerous weather conditions — a prescient warning with rain, wind and thunderstorms in the forecast.
On Sunday afternoon, the White House said “rain or shine, we’re celebrating our great country no matter what” after The Weather Channel posted an ominous forecast on social media.
John Shahidi, a major content creator manager and Trump ally, was also expected to be in attendance, along with two NELK Boy members, the popular YouTube podcasters who backed then-candidate Trump in 2024, Kyle John Forgeard and Salim Sirur. John Fisher, a golf creator known as “Big John,” were in the mix, too, according to a person familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
The presence of viral influencers is a reminder of the political capital the president’s team needs to restore ahead of the crucial 2026 midterms, given that the president’s approval ratings have sharply dropped in recent months. UFC’s most loyal fanbase — young men —are a critical voting bloc for the GOP, who have grown frustrated with the economy under Trump.
Rogan has repeatedly taken aim at Trump’s policies, including disagreement with Trump’s mass deportation campaign, tariffs and the war with Iran. Nonetheless, the host of the most-listened-to-podcast has remained in Trump’s orbitMS NOW previously reported, demonstrating the president’s acknowledgement of Rogan’s reach to his base.
Unlike typical 12-to-15 fight Ultimate Fighting Championship events, UFC Freedom 250 consists of only seven fights. Rather than taking place in a traditional indoor sports arena or stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, the White House fight night was orchestrated underneath a 90-foot red, white and blue steel arch structure estimated to cost around $60 million. White has repeatedly insisted that the UFC — not taxpayers — are funding production costs.
MS NOW captured video on a jumbotron screen of “The Claw,” as it’s known, erected on the South Lawn. It was a compilation of imagery from the nation’s founding, civil rights protests, first responders at the scene of the 9/11 attacks, the first moon landing, boxing legend Muhammad Ali and UFC fighters in the ring — a nod to the United States’ 250th anniversary.
The imagery of the civil rights era, however, stands in stark contrast to efforts by the Trump administration to remove references to slavery or racial discrimination in museums and on federal websites. “Our fighting spirit is a living legacy of all who step forward when the moment demands,” a narrator says. “We’re a nation born of revolution, so fight is in our DNA.”
The Claw and its towering canopy and location drew fierce criticism from those who said it desecrates the historic building that represents the government’s executive branch. Critics also bemoaned the use of federal property, given Trump — whose financial disclosures showed he invested in UFC’s parent company in March — along with his allies, including Paramount CEO David Ellison, who is airing the fight, could profit from the extravaganza.
A federal judge on Friday denied an emergency request by a watchdog group to block the fights.
Lindsey Pipia contributed to this report.
Erum Salam is a breaking news reporter for MS NOW, with a focus on how global events and foreign policy shape U.S. politics. She previously was a breaking news reporter for The Guardian.
Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for MS NOW.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky, was hospitalized on Sunday, according to his spokesperson, who provided no details on the former Senate majority leader’s condition.
“Senator McConnell was admitted to the hospital this morning. He is receiving excellent care,” the senator’s spokesman David Popp wrote in a statement. He did not say why his boss was taken to the hospital.
McConnell, 84, has suffered a series of health problems and falls in recent years, including a series of episodes in 2023 in which he appeared to freeze on camera while speaking to reporters.
He suffered a concussion and was hospitalized after falling at a Washington hotel in 2023, and fell in the Capitol multiple times after that. In February of this year, the former majority leader was hospitalized with flu-like symptoms.
First elected to the Senate in 1984, McConnell stepped aside in January as majority leader after serving 18 years as his party’s leader in the upper chamber.
McConnell, who is retiring when his term ends in January, has become a more vocal critic of President Donald Trump, whom he famously said was “practically and morally responsible for provoking the events” at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
More recently, the Kentucky Republican has criticized a number of Trump plans, including the president’s proposed $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, which the administration had to abandon in the face of fierce bipartisan opposition. Calling it a “slush fund,” McConnell ripped the payout fund as “utterly stupid, morally wrong.”
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.
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