Politics

The abortion debate is turning into Trump’s greatest dilemma

Published

2 years ago

November 12, 2024

The abortion debate is turning into Trump’s greatest dilemma

By suggesting — however temporarily — that he was open to a Florida ballot measure that would guarantee the right to an abortion until the time of fetal viability, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has once again played his mostly white evangelical base for suckers. Those white evangelicals helped put him in power in 2016 to accomplish their longstanding goal of overturning Roe v. Wade. Now, those same voters have staked their hopes for a total ban on abortion on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. But there Trump was last week, telling an NBC News reporter that he thinks Florida’s current law, which bans abortions after six weeks, is too restrictive. But then his evangelical base quickly brought him to heel.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has once again played his white evangelical base for suckers.

“I think six weeks is too short,” Trump said Thursday. “There has to be more time and so I want more weeks. I am going to be voting that there will be more than six weeks.” To be clear, Florida voters won’t have the option of choosing how many weeks a pregnancy can progress before an abortion is illegal. They’ll, again, only be voting on whether or not there’s a right to abortion as long as the fetus isn’t viable.

Trump’s answer that Florida’s abortion law is too restrictive angered his most loyal base. But that’s not all. At a campaign stop in Michigan, Trump not only said that he supports IVF — which some diehard abortion opponents oppose — but that he also wants the government to pay the cost of such treatments if insurance companies do not.

The outcry was immediate. Lila Rosean anti-abortion activist, said in a social media post, “If you don’t stand for pro-life principles, you don’t get pro-life votes.”

Albert Mohler, the president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary wrote on X, “Former President Trump now appears determined to undermine his prolife supporters. His criticism of Florida abortion restrictions & his call for government funding of IVF & his recent statement about ‘reproductive rights’ seem almost calculated to alienate pro-life voters.”

Mohler said the election “is shaping up as a catastrophe for the pro-life movement” and that Trump “had better count the cost of abandoning pro-life voters — quickly.”

And Trump quickly backed down. Of course, he said Friday, he supports the six-week abortion ban in Florida.

But that can’t erase the fact that he interjected unease and distrust into his faithful supporters. What’s surprising is that such voters ever had faith and trust in Trump on this issue. He has been all over the place on the topic of abortion for a long time. He told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in 1999 that he was “very pro-choice.” When other Republicans brought up that remark in a 2015 debate, he said he’d “evolved.” In February 2016 he praised Planned Parenthoodbut said he’d defund them because they provided abortion care. At a March 2016 BLN town hall, he said “there has to be some form of punishment” for women seeking abortions.

Though he’s often taken credit for defeating Roe v. Wadewhen Republicans did poorly in the 2022 midterm elections, he wrote on Truth Social, “It was the ‘abortion issue,’ poorly handled by many Republicans, especially those that firmly insisted on No Exceptions, even in the case of Rape, Incest, or Life of the Mother, that lost large numbers of Voters.” In March, he suggested he’d support a 15-week national abortion ban.

Now he has a dilemma. He knows that the draconian policies of his evangelical base are not popular, which prompted him to sayunconvincingly, that the “Trump administration will be great for women and their reproductive rights.” But he needs those white evangelical voters to stick by his side. Trump’s frenetic shifting on the issue isn’t about a lack of knowledge. It is about desperation.

Trump’s frenetic shifting on the issue isn’t about a lack of knowledge. It is about desperation.

Trump has never been good for women, but the combination of JD Vance harping on childless “cat ladies” and their tag-team attacks on Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has made them and the GOP look like the party of professional women haters.

Trump’s flip-flopping is a sign of his flop sweat. Running against Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, leaves Trump as the old man with his young even more misogynist sidekick yearning for the days when the little woman was at home, barefoot and pregnant. His campaign can’t strike egalitarian message in part because of who Trump and Vance are, but also because they’re beholden to hard-line Republican evangelical supporters who are very much invested in banning abortion and restricting IVF.

The demise of Roe v. Wade and the subsequent IVF battles have been devastating for women, and the speeches and commercials featuring women who have been rendered infertile or suffered grievous injury because of these draconian laws stand in condemnation of the intentional cruelty of these laws condemning women to painsuffering, infertility and even death. These testimonies stand in direct contrast to the ways in which Republicans either try to obfuscate what the abortion bans do, or to downplay their effect on women’s access to reproductive care.

The 10 states where abortion rights will be on the ballot in November are a minefield for the Republican Party up and down the ballot. And everything Trump says about the topic leads to another explosion.

Politics

Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems

Published

4 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.

Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.

Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.

Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.

Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.

And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.

“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”

What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.

The results were the same in both.

“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”

Gas prices could swing votes

Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.

Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.

“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”

To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.

More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.

Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.

That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”

The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.

Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.

Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.

It’s already affecting the battlegrounds

In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.

Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.

In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”

“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”

Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.

In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.

While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”

But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.

By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.

Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.

This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”

Politics

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Published

11 hours ago

July 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Capitol agenda: House GOP budget faces Senate reality check

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been frank about the rocky road the reconciliation effort faces and careful not to guarantee he’ll be successful…
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