Politics

Poll: Republicans’ gas price problem is even worse than it seems

Published

3 weeks ago

July 24, 2026

Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.

Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The Blue Light News Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.

Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.

Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.

Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.

And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.

“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”

What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The Blue Light News Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.

The results were the same in both.

“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”

Gas prices could swing votes

Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.

Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.

“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”

To better understand public perception of gas prices, The Blue Light News Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.

More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.

Using OPIS data, Blue Light News compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.

That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”

The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.

Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.

Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.

It’s already affecting the battlegrounds

In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.

Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to Blue Light News’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.

In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to Blue Light News’s analysis.

Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”

“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”

Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.

In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.

While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”

But The Blue Light News Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.

By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.

Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, Blue Light News’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.

This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”

Politics

Bernie Sanders says he can’t get involved in every race. Some allies wish he would.

Published

2 days ago

August 13, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sen. Bernie Sanders says he can’t be everywhere at once — even though some of his allies want him to be.

Democratic socialist Francesca Hong lost by less than 4,000 votes in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary, an outcome several high-profile progressives are blaming on Sanders and other top national progressive leaders for staying out of the race. Some said his endorsement alone could have helped bring in badly needed resources for Hong. Others said the Vermont senator has a responsibility to play widely across the battle map.

Sanders, in an interview, touted a series of progressive wins Tuesday night and brushed off the criticism.

“My response is that we have limited resources and capabilities, and there are a lot of really great candidates who have run for office who we have not endorsed,” Sanders told Blue Light News on Wednesday.

“We can’t endorse every single candidate,” he added. “So, you know, we have to pick and choose and I think that Hong ran a very, very great, and very strong, grassroots campaign, got a lot of people involved and I applaud her for that.”

Hong ultimately lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a major victory for establishment Democrats who worried she wouldn’t be able to win a general election in a top battleground. It was a notable blow for the far left that overshadowed progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s win in the Minnesota Senate race the same night.

Sanders and other progressive leaders “have a responsibility, whether they like it or they don’t,” to help steer candidates in the movement, said Cenk Uygur, a progressive activist who co-founded the Young Turks and Justice Democrats. “If they endorse people, it makes a difference. If they don’t endorse people these days, sometimes it makes a bigger difference. Because there’s a certain expectation, and when they don’t deliver on that expectation, it gives people pause. So it feels like, to some degree, they’re shirking their responsibility.”

Uygur also criticized Sanders for saying on a podcast ahead of the primary that he was “not that familiar” with the Wisconsin race.

“I love Bernie, but that’s not true. Sorry, brother, but you have a giant team. Of course somebody on your team knows who’s running for governor in Wisconsin.” Uygur told Blue Light News on Thursday.

One Democratic operative working on progressive campaigns, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the electoral dynamics, also rejected Sanders’ argument, noting the senator won Wisconsin’s presidential primary in 2016.

“He knows Wisconsin very well,” the operative said, adding: “What resources? You’re not cutting checks. [Sanders] endorsing somebody raises the money.”

Sanders in the interview noted primary wins from Flanagan, Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd District and Matt Little in the crowded race for Rep. Angie Craig’s Minnesota seat — all Democrats he endorsed.

“Needless to say, I’m feeling really very good,” Sanders said. “The American people are catching on that we have an economy that is rigged, the very rich are getting richer while working families are struggling.”

But the Wisconsin governor primary result Tuesday exposed a critical vulnerability for a movement that has largely relied on Sanders and a handful of other headline-grabbing stars, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), to help seal the deal in contentious races as progressives look to prove they can play in competitive seats. The underdog wing of the party, some progressives argue, can’t be selective about where it’s playing if they want to take on a vast and well-funded establishment.

The bulk of the blame is being laid at Sanders’ feet in part because the movement he turbocharged in 2016 has struggled to land on a clear successor. Some progressives argue there’s an overreliance on Sanders and leaders such as Ocasio-Cortez.

Our Revolution, a group born from Sanders’ 2016 campaign but that the senator no longer associates with, blasted the broader progressive ecosystem for not doing more for Hong in a post early Wednesday morning, as the returns in Wisconsin showed Crowley was poised to defeat Hong. Several groups that have backed insurgent progressives in other races declined to join Our Revolution in getting involved in the governor’s race.“We cannot build progressive power while gatekeeping our own movement through the eyes of the establishment,” the group posted.

Sanders pushed back: “Our Revolution is an organization I’ve not had any interaction with, any participation with … for I think nine years,” he said in response. “They do what they want and they say what they want. They have nothing to do with me.”

Our Revolution declined comment on Sanders’ remarks and on its post.

Nina Turner, a former Our Revolution leader and Sanders 2020 co-chair who had backed Hong, said support from “more well-known, more popular, actively elected progressive types … probably would have” made a difference in Hong’s race. She declined to call anyone out specifically for not getting involved.

“The progressive movement is going to have to reckon with how we continue to win around certain personalities,” Turner said. “I don’t think the movement should put all our hopes and dreams on certain personalities to come out or to not come out, because it is their choice and they have a right to their choice, even if I don’t agree with it.”

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) was one of the few national progressive figures who had endorsed Hong. He has employed a far more aggressive endorsement strategy than Sanders this primary season and said he sees an advantage to backing candidates early, despite the potential headwinds facing long-shot contenders, as long as they align with him on policy.

But he wasn’t willing to play the blame game in the aftermath of Wisconsin’s primary, saying in a text message that: “We have so many candidates running and I believe progressive leaders have been doing an extraordinary job lifting them up.”

A spokesperson for Ocasio-Cortez, who has also faced criticism for not backing for Hong, declined to comment.

Not everyone on the left believes Sanders and other progressive stars could have swung a race in which several other factors were working against Hong. The candidate did very little traditional advertising. She faced a barrage of negative press over controversial past social media comments that put her on defense over everything from public safety to Thanksgiving. Several candidates likely siphoned away votes from both Hong and Crowley — including two who dropped out after voting began: Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

Dillon Sheehan, the chapter secretary for the Madison Area Democratic Socialists of America, which endorsed Hong, said “it’s entirely possible” big-name progressives like Sanders could have “put her over the edge.”

But “we need candidates who can win without Bernie’s endorsement, he’s not going to be able to endorse forever,” Sheehan said. “I think what this shows is that even without his endorsement, without Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement, [Hong] did fantastic.”

Politics

Crowley zeroes in on ‘MAGA extremism’ to rebuild a fractured Wisconsin coalition

Published

2 days ago

August 13, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

David Crowley has a strategy to win over the voters who backed democratic socialist Francesca Hong on Tuesday: make the governor’s race an existential fight against “MAGA extremism.”

Wisconsin Democrats have spent the past day scrambling to unite the far left and centrist factions of the party after a bitter primary battle defined by questions of electability and how far left of an ideology to pursue. The same is happening in Michigan, where the party has just three months to mend broken fences and get progressive Abdul El-Sayed elected in another competitive state this November.

Crowley told Blue Light News he plans to use GOP Rep. Tom Tiffany and President Donald Trump as the foils that bring everyone together.

“We’re not all going to agree on everything. But I think we agree that the ultimate goal is making sure that we don’t have a MAGA extremist and congressman Tom Tiffany sitting in the governor’s office,” Crowley said in an interview Thursday, adding that the state “has a grand opportunity in putting some level of check on Trump’s agenda” amid the “affordability crisis.”

Democrats view holding onto the governor’s mansion in Wisconsin — a top battleground state that Trump won by just shy of 30,000 votes in 2024 — as critical for acting as a bulwark against Trump. They’re hoping to secure a governing trifecta in the state for the first time since 2010.

Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who was hand-picked by current Gov. Tony Evers, said he plans to not only fold in the left flank, but also reach out to independents and previous GOP voters who “feel rejected by this current Republican party.” Evers himself ousted GOP then-Gov. Scott Walker in 2018 thanks to a coalition that cut across Democratic strongholds, independents and some Republican-leaning voters.

Crowley also said he’s already talked to “some Republicans who are more interested in defeating Tom Tiffany.”

Trump’s approval rating has been continually slipping, and Crowley’s advisers believe focusing on the cost of living under the Trump administration amid an unpopular Iran war is a sweet spot to hit a broad cross-section of voters.

But even as he committed to reaching out to voters who had backed Hong, Crowley told Blue Light News he would not campaign with some of her top surrogates on the trail — and demurred when asked whether he’d bring on any Hong allies to staff his general election campaign, saying everyone is “welcome” at the table.

When asked whether he would campaign with controversial, leftist social media influencer Hasan Piker, Crowley responded: “No.”

“I don’t know Hasan, but I always want to be focused on Wisconsin voters,” he added.

Hong has committed to hitting the trail with Crowley ahead of November, but many of his allies see her as too much of a political liability to be directly involved. They’re worried her brand of democratic socialism — and past controversial social media posts about defunding the police and canceling Thanksgiving — could affect Crowley’s wider appeal.Crowley also isn’t budging on a key campaign policy issue that divided the primary: He will not embrace the moratorium on data center development that Hong ran on.

“No moratorium,” Crowley said in the interview, adding he and Hong do agree on adding “guardrails” on data center development and operation via a package of legislation.

“I let folks know exactly where I stood on data centers,” he said. “That’s why we were able to not only consolidate many of those undecided voters, but get many rural communities to support us as well, because we have a common-sense approach to make sure that we’re protecting our environment, protecting our water, and protecting ourselves … when it comes down to these data centers.”

Politics

Platner announced as speaker for activist-led event in Maine

Published

2 days ago

August 13, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, who dropped out of the race last month amid sexual assault allegations, was announced as a speaker for a Labor Day event in Ellsworth, Maine, next month.

The event was organized by the groups Hancock County Activists and Acadia Action Peacemakers, according to information shared with the Hancock County Democratic Party. Both have been behind “No Kings” protests and other organized events in the area since the start of last year. Neither responded immediately to inquiries about the event on Thursday.

Platner, who is from nearby Sullivan, Maine, dropped out of the Senate race following a July Blue Light News report that a woman he dated accused him of sexually assaulting her in 2021. Platner denied the allegation.

Marcia Myers, the chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party, said the event set to feature Platner was not a sanctioned party event but that the party often shares information about activist-led events in the area. The county party’s Facebook and Instagram posts mentioning Platner’s event were deleted, though the event was still listed on the party’s website.

Platner did not immediately respond to an inquiry about the event on Thursday.

Platner was replaced in the Senate race by former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, as Democrats are seeking to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins in an election of high importance to both parties nationally.

Outside groups supporting Collins have sought to tie Jackson to Platner, noting Jackson, who previously ran for governor, endorsed Platner’s campaign and appeared at rallies for him. Jackson called for Platner to drop out of the race after the sexual assault allegation.

Jalen Beckford contributed to this story.