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The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map

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The battle for the Senate won’t be decided for another year and a half. But the key questions that will determine who wins the upper chamber are beginning to come into focus.

For Democrats to flip the chamber, everything needs to go right. They have to net four seats, and a wave of retirements earlier this year is expected to make a handful of Democratic-held seats more competitive. There are also relatively few openings for the party to make pickups — only two of the 22 Republican seats up for reelection next year are in states President Donald Trump either lost or won by less than 10 points in 2024.

Yet Democratic leaders have projected confidence, fortified by the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) shortly after he broke with Republicans over concerns about their signature legislative accomplishment.

Here are the five biggest questions still hanging over the Senate race:

Can Democrats get their dream recruits?

Democrats are holding their breath for Roy Cooper and Janet Mills to decide if they’ll run for Senate in North Carolina and Maine — a former and current governor, respectively, who could dramatically improve their party’s chances to flip those swing seats. Their outstanding decisions have frozen recruitment in both states, signaling the party’s strong preference for them.

The odds look better for Democrats in North Carolina, where Cooper’s top political strategist told POLITICO earlier this month that the former governor was “strongly considering a run” and “will decide in the coming weeks.” North Carolina Democrats have argued that Cooper’s aw-shucks brand coupled with his strong fundraising network would instantly transform the now-open race.

Tillis announced that he was not running for reelection last month after clashing with Trump over his tax-and-spend megabill. That “puts a lot more pressure on Cooper to run,” said Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, as he is “heads and shoulders above every other candidate.”

But Cooper hasn’t cleared the field yet. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel entered the Senate primary in April, and he demurred when asked if he’d exit if Cooper jumped in. Rep. Don Davis is also eyeing the race.

Republicans have yet to see a major candidate step up, although the president’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump has expressed interest.

National Democrats are still working to woo Mills, but her interest in challenging Sen. Susan Collins is less clear. Mills, who is 77 and won reelection in 2022 by 13 percentage points, told a Maine outlet in April that “I’m not planning to run for another office” but added that “things change week to week, month to month.”

Jordan Wood, the former chief of staff to former California Rep. Katie Porter, has already raised $1 million in his bid against Collins. But some Maine Democrats are concerned that the race hasn’t yet attracted bigger name contenders.

Can a bloody Republican primary in Texas put the state on the map in November?

Republicans have a messy — and expensive — primary on their hands down in Texas.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune discussed the high-stakes intraparty brawl with Trump — as part of a broader discussion on the 2026 midterm map during a recent White House meeting — where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is primarying Sen. John Cornyn.

GOP leaders have been privately trying to sway Trump for months to back Cornyn, arguing that his conservative bona fides match the president’s agenda and he would be a safer bet in November.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) speaks to press outside of his office at the Hart Senate Office Building on April 28, 2025, in Washington.

Cornyn got a break after Paxton’s wife announced she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” with his allies quickly seizing on the news. And he was able to get in some face time with Trump on Friday when he traveled with the president back to Texas.

But so far, Trump appears poised to remain on the sidelines for a while longer as polling has shown Cornyn consistently trailing Paxton in a primary. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is also mulling a Senate run, traveled with Trump on Friday as well.

Asked whether he was concerned about Cornyn’s standing, Thune told reporters Thursday, “We’re working on it.”

Democrats believe, and some Republicans fear, Paxton would be a weaker general candidate that could finally put the Lone Star State in play. Former Rep. Colin Allred is already in the race, but Democrats could face their own packed primary.

Who will Republicans run in Democratic-held battlegrounds?

Democrats have two super-competitive Senate seats to defend — and losing either could all but extinguish their dream of retaking control of the Senate.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp struck a blow to Republicans’ hopes of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff when he passed on a Senate bid in May.

Now, Republicans face a potentially messy primary, as several potential candidates eye a bid to challenge Ossoff, who already has a $15 million head start in fundraising. Rep. Buddy Carter is already in, and other members of Congress are considering a run, including Rep. Rich McCormick and Rep. Mike Collins.

Kelly Loeffler, the former senator and current head of the Small Business Administration who lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2020, wouldn’t rule out another Senate bid when asked earlier this year. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, who also ran in the state’s Senate primary in 2020, has also not ruled out a Senate bid.

One potential wild-card candidate has passed on running: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial firebrand and close Trump ally.

Unlike in Georgia, Republicans have successfully recruited their top candidate in Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters made a surprise retirement announcement earlier this year. Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers decided to take another shot at winning an open Michigan Senate seat after he lost out to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.

All eyes are now on Rep. Bill Huizenga, who is openly weighing a Senate run despite Republicans’ worries about a competitive Senate primary and the fate of his battleground House district.

Democrats are grappling with their own competitive primary in Michigan, as progressive former Michigan public health official Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens jockey for position.

New Hampshire is also an open-seat race in a Democratic-held state, but Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas starts as the favorite over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, both of whom appear for now to have a straight shot to the general election.

Is there even a fourth state for Democrats to capitalize on?

Democrats believe they’ll have strong national headwinds by next November, but they are still facing a difficult mathematical reality.

To flip the chamber, Democrats have to net four seats. But they have only two clear pick-up opportunities right now: North Carolina, especially if Republicans shift further to the right in their primary, and Maine.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) addresses volunteers at a campaign office on Nov. 4, 2024, in Cleveland Heights, Ohio.

Beyond that the map gets exponentially harder: Sen. Joni Ernst is mulling retiring in Iowa, which would give them an open race in a state where House districts are increasingly competitive. But some Democrats believe their chances would be better if Ernst was on the ballot, especially after she opened herself up for attacks by saying “we all are going to die” to an angry constituent concerned about potential Medicaid cuts.

Schumer recently had dinner with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is quietly mulling a comeback bid against Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican who was appointed to fill now-Vice President JD Vance’s seat. But many Democrats believe Brown is more likely to try to run for governor than return to his old stomping ground.

The pickings get slimmer elsewhere: Democrats will try again for their white whale of Texas, and Florida Democrats are desperate to show any signs of life in a one-time battleground that has become a dark shade of red.

In Nebraska, in-state Democrats are blessing, but not formally endorsing, independent candidate Dan Osborn’s second Senate bid, though Republicans are confident he won’t be able to catch them off guard after a close call last year.

Can Democrats weaponize Trump’s megabill successfully?

Democrats have spotted an opportunity to go on offense after Republicans passed their sweeping domestic-policy bill earlier this month. The bill polled unfavorably as it came together — particularly the cuts to Medicaid — even as significant percentages of voters across several surveys said they knew little about its contents.

“It’s going to raise insurance costs even if you don’t have Medicaid,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The New York Times on Thursday about Democrats’ message on the megabill. “Your electricity costs will go up by 10 percent. Even not poor people, it goes across the board. And it’s hitting at the same time that your costs are going up because of tariffs.”

Some Republicans in Congress acknowledge they’re concerned about the political consequences of their landmark legislation.

“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told Blue Light News shortly after the bill passed. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”

The White House is pushing polling suggesting some parts of the bill — implementing work requirements for Medicaid recipients and eliminating taxes on tips — could be part of a winning message next year.

TV ads across the nation will soon help determine who was right.

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Congress

‘I’ve been taking a ton of risk’: Inside Jim Himes’ mission to save a key spy authority

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Jim Himes wants to reauthorize a controversial surveillance law. He knows it comes with big risks.

The top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee has been seeking a bipartisan deal to extend Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act while Republicans are busy fighting among themselves over how to prevent the government spy power from expiring April 30.

Fearing a lapse would be an existential crisis, he’s been empowered by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to share his perspective with fellow Democrats who are skeptical of reauthorizing Section 702 without guardrails to protect Americans from being targeted by the Trump administration. And despite his own preferences for modifying the spy authority, he’s facing criticism from progressives in his district for being open to a clean extension.

Himes has also been talking to the White House — but often finds himself out of the loop of negotiations with House Republican leaders, who are more focused on trying to squeeze a deal through their ultrathin margins than find common ground with Democrats.

“There’s been a shit ton of outreach to me” on this issue, Himes, of Connecticut, said in a lengthy interview in his Capitol Hill office Thursday. “None of it has been, ‘Come to this room to negotiate this deal today.’”

Himes is reflected in a mirror during an POLITICO in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, on April 23, 2026.

The stakes are high for Himes as he navigates the difficult politics around a surveillance law viewed with deep suspicion by many progressives and conservatives. And in attempting to broker cross-party consensus around the spy law, he has embarked on a potentially thankless mission.

He’s challenging Republicans’ appetite for bipartisan dealmaking in the Trump era — and so far, he’s being largely ignored by the GOP leaders. He’s also testing whether Democrats would attach their names to any legislation that gives even the appearance of emboldening an administration they view as corrupt — and it’s getting more difficult by the day.

“I’ve been taking a ton of risk, I’ve been doing a ton of explanations,” Himes said later Thursday.

If he succeeds in stitching together some fractured coalition to extend Section 702 with meaningful guardrails, he will have pulled off a feat of political compromise rarely seen these days. But if he is unable to help land a deal and must instead back a clean extension in the interest of protecting national security, he will undoubtedly take fresh heat from progressives, perhaps in the form of a credible primary challenger.

One long-shot candidate looking to unseat Himes in the Democratic primary based on the incumbent’s FISA stance — Joseph Perez-Caputo, a local activist — has been leading constituent protests against the lawmaker back home.

“We’ve kind of watched in abject horror,” Perez-Caputo said in an interview of Himes’ scramble to land a Section 702 agreement.

A new letter from half a dozen groups in Connecticut, shared first with Blue Light News, is calling on Himes to step down as the Intelligence Committee’s ranking member, saying he has “betrayed” obligations to his constituents and the Constitution — including by “actively lobbying other Democrats and Republicans to support the administration’s FISA agenda.”

CIA Director John Ratcliffe, left, shakes hands with Himes during a House Select Intelligence Committee hearing in Washington to assess worldwide threats, March 19, 2026.

Himes is cognizant of the dynamics, recalling that he got his “head blown off” by frustrated participants during a demonstration in his district last month, adding, “there’s an immense amount of misinformation out there that needs to be addressed.”

Ultimately, Himes says, he’s driven in this fight by a sense of duty. Over the course of the Thursday interview, he insisted — repeatedly — that he prefers extending the spy authority with policy changes, like seeking judicial review for searches under the program, to continuing on with the status quo.

Rather, Himes explained, his perch on the Intelligence panel uniquely positions him to understand the scope and stakes of a Section 702 expiration. And if it were to come down to a choice between passing a clean extension or letting the program expire, a lapse would be a nonstarter.

“Three months from now, if FISA 702 is dark and there’s a bomb in Grand Central, there will be very little doubt in my mind … that that occurred because we shut down our most important counterintelligence,” Himes said.

“So I don’t blame them,” he added of those members who would prefer the program lapse than support a clean extension. “But I just see with some granularity — actually, more granularity than pretty much anybody around here — what the risks are that we face.”

Despite Himes’ entreaties, many House Democrats remain skeptical. Rep. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts said in an interview Thursday he will vote against a reauthorization for the first time in his 25-year tenure in the House if the legislation does not institute new guardrails on warrantless government surveillance.

Personal items are seen in Himes' office on Capitol Hill in Washington, April 23, 2026.

Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said he respects Himes and appreciates that he has attended caucus meetings to share his perspective on the issue. But, he said in an interview, the decision was an easy one: “We should unify now to say, ‘No, Trump does not use power responsibly.’”

Himes said his senior role on the House Intelligence Committee means he’s inclined to never trust any administration — and he “particularly” doesn’t trust this one. But he emphasized he has not, in his role on the panel, ever been presented with any evidence that President Donald Trump or senior White House officials have sought to interfere with Americans’ privacy.

“In the last 14 months,” he said, “there has not been a single example of their attempt to abuse this database. I am conscious of something that is hard to get people to understand, which is, there is no program that is more overseen than this one. None.”

Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee who is also privy to classified information not shared with the majority of his colleagues, had a similar point of view.

“I don’t want it to be on my conscience that something happens that we could have stopped,” Meeks said in an interview. “That’s the responsibility that Jim has and the burden at times of being the ranking member, and the former chair, of Intel.”

Some Republicans downplayed Himes’ role in the FISA talks as GOP leaders go down a partisan path. House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford questioned how much Himes is backchanneling with Republicans, while noting he considers the ranking member a friend.

“We try to be considerate of him and his concerns, and I think he extends me that courtesy as well,” the Arkansas Republican said in an interview Thursday. “So we have a good working relationship. And I think that’s helpful.”

Himes arrives for an interview with POLITICO in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, April 23, 2026.

As the April 30 deadline to extend the FISA spy authority draws nearer, Himes is continuing to make the rounds with colleagues of both parties but also think strategically about what could pass the House, and how.

He and the senior House Judiciary Democrat, Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, have been workshopping possible backup plans with policy changes that could attract more Democratic support in case Republicans fail to pass their partisan bill.

He’s now also interested in finding a set of reforms that could get the support of a two-thirds majority of the House so that the legislation could advance under an expedited floor procedure known as a suspension, which doesn’t first require clearing a party-line “rule” vote.

Himes said there was a “real opportunity” to pass a bill under suspension last week, when Speaker Mike Johnson instead attempted, unsuccessfully, to pass an 18-month extension bill through the regular order process in the middle of the night. But Johnson’s failure, Himes continued, only emboldened Democrats to stand back and watch the GOP flounder.

Calling himself an “emissary” during that overnight vote, Himes was frank: “A bunch of members at two in the morning, watching the speaker fall flat on his face, does not help me.”

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Mike Johnson tries again to extend contested spy law

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House GOP leaders on Thursday unveiled the text of a new three-year extension of a key spy law, as Speaker Mike Johnson tried to overcome ultra-conservative resistance and pass it next week.

The proposed reauthorization of the so-called Section 702 law includes some new oversight and penalties for abuses of the spy authority but stops short of warrant requirements sought by GOP hard-liners.

Conservatives have pushed back on extending Section 702, which allows warrantless surveillance of foreigners, because of concerns about U.S. citizens being caught up in the program.

The faction that’s been opposing an extension has not yet signed off on the latest plan. GOP leaders plan to continue talks into the weekend.

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House GOP leaders scramble to sell Senate’s slimmed-down budget with promises of ‘Reconciliation 3.0’

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House Republican leaders want a floor vote next week on the Senate’s budget resolution, the first step in writing an immigration enforcement bill and passing it by President Donald Trump’s June 1 deadline.

“It has to be clean because it has to be quick,” Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday, indicating that conservatives could not make major changes to the other chamber’s blueprint at this time.

But Johnson and others still have to lock in support from conservatives who are threatening to vote against it if it doesn’t encompass more top GOP policy priorities, and it is proving to be a delicate balancing act.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (La.) met Thursday morning with Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (Texas) and leaders of key House GOP factions, according to four people granted anonymity to share details of private meetings — an effort to quell concerns among some conservatives about the narrow scope of the current plan. Arrington and other senior Republicans have been pushing to expand the party-line bill currently under discussion.

Johnson, Scalise and others in GOP leadership are promising that as soon as Republicans pass a bill funding immigration enforcement and some border patrol activities, they will get to work on another measure through the filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation process.

“We’re going to move right to reconciliation, what will now be 3.0,” Johnson said, referring both to the current plan and the tax and spending megabill Republicans passed last summer. “We’re going to do it as quickly as possible.”

Some of the ideas that circulated during the closed-door leadership meeting Thursday included opening up the possibility for more tax policy changes, addressing the Trump administration’s request for $350 billion for the Pentagon, additional funding for the Iran war and spending cuts across social programs in another package.

Arrington, who is among those wishing to expand the upcoming reconciliation effort, is seeking steep spending reductions to social programs and hopes to revisit Obamacare spending — including cost-sharing reductions, which would reduce out-of-pocket health costs.

Leadership of the Republican Study Committee, meanwhile, is demanding that any third reconciliation bill be fully paid for. There has been limited angst over “pay-fors” for the current party-line pursuit because the measure is an attempt to fund the immigration enforcement agencies and circumvent regular appropriations negotiations, which have been stuck for months.

But many Republicans are doubtful their party will be able to pass another party-line bill ahead of the midterms and see the immigration funding bill as their last bite at the apple. Some of them, including Rep. Warren Davidson of Ohio, are threatening to vote against the Senate budget resolution that would unlock the reconciliation process for the immigration funding measure unless it can incorporate more items from the hard-liners’ wishlist.

GOP leaders are now scrambling to stave off defections. Adoption of identical budget resolutions in both chambers will unlock the ability for lawmakers to write and pass a bill through reconciliation that would send tens of billions of dollars to immigration enforcement operations run through the Department of Homeland Security, which has been shuttered since February.

Republicans are on a very tight schedule to send this bill to Trump’s desk and pave the way for ending the record-setting DHS shutdown, given White House demands.

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