Congress

The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map

Published

12 months ago

July 13, 2025

The battle for the Senate won’t be decided for another year and a half. But the key questions that will determine who wins the upper chamber are beginning to come into focus.

For Democrats to flip the chamber, everything needs to go right. They have to net four seats, and a wave of retirements earlier this year is expected to make a handful of Democratic-held seats more competitive. There are also relatively few openings for the party to make pickups — only two of the 22 Republican seats up for reelection next year are in states President Donald Trump either lost or won by less than 10 points in 2024.

Yet Democratic leaders have projected confidence, fortified by the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) shortly after he broke with Republicans over concerns about their signature legislative accomplishment.

Here are the five biggest questions still hanging over the Senate race:

Can Democrats get their dream recruits?

Democrats are holding their breath for Roy Cooper and Janet Mills to decide if they’ll run for Senate in North Carolina and Maine — a former and current governor, respectively, who could dramatically improve their party’s chances to flip those swing seats. Their outstanding decisions have frozen recruitment in both states, signaling the party’s strong preference for them.

The odds look better for Democrats in North Carolina, where Cooper’s top political strategist told POLITICO earlier this month that the former governor was “strongly considering a run” and “will decide in the coming weeks.” North Carolina Democrats have argued that Cooper’s aw-shucks brand coupled with his strong fundraising network would instantly transform the now-open race.

Tillis announced that he was not running for reelection last month after clashing with Trump over his tax-and-spend megabill. That “puts a lot more pressure on Cooper to run,” said Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, as he is “heads and shoulders above every other candidate.”

But Cooper hasn’t cleared the field yet. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel entered the Senate primary in April, and he demurred when asked if he’d exit if Cooper jumped in. Rep. Don Davis is also eyeing the race.

Republicans have yet to see a major candidate step up, although the president’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump has expressed interest.

National Democrats are still working to woo Mills, but her interest in challenging Sen. Susan Collins is less clear. Mills, who is 77 and won reelection in 2022 by 13 percentage points, told a Maine outlet in April that “I’m not planning to run for another office” but added that “things change week to week, month to month.”

Jordan Wood, the former chief of staff to former California Rep. Katie Porter, has already raised $1 million in his bid against Collins. But some Maine Democrats are concerned that the race hasn’t yet attracted bigger name contenders.

Can a bloody Republican primary in Texas put the state on the map in November?

Republicans have a messy — and expensive — primary on their hands down in Texas.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune discussed the high-stakes intraparty brawl with Trump — as part of a broader discussion on the 2026 midterm map during a recent White House meeting — where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is primarying Sen. John Cornyn.

GOP leaders have been privately trying to sway Trump for months to back Cornyn, arguing that his conservative bona fides match the president’s agenda and he would be a safer bet in November.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) speaks to press outside of his office at the Hart Senate Office Building on April 28, 2025, in Washington.

Cornyn got a break after Paxton’s wife announced she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” with his allies quickly seizing on the news. And he was able to get in some face time with Trump on Friday when he traveled with the president back to Texas.

But so far, Trump appears poised to remain on the sidelines for a while longer as polling has shown Cornyn consistently trailing Paxton in a primary. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is also mulling a Senate run, traveled with Trump on Friday as well.

Asked whether he was concerned about Cornyn’s standing, Thune told reporters Thursday, “We’re working on it.”

Democrats believe, and some Republicans fear, Paxton would be a weaker general candidate that could finally put the Lone Star State in play. Former Rep. Colin Allred is already in the race, but Democrats could face their own packed primary.

Who will Republicans run in Democratic-held battlegrounds?

Democrats have two super-competitive Senate seats to defend — and losing either could all but extinguish their dream of retaking control of the Senate.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp struck a blow to Republicans’ hopes of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff when he passed on a Senate bid in May.

Now, Republicans face a potentially messy primary, as several potential candidates eye a bid to challenge Ossoff, who already has a $15 million head start in fundraising. Rep. Buddy Carter is already in, and other members of Congress are considering a run, including Rep. Rich McCormick and Rep. Mike Collins.

Kelly Loeffler, the former senator and current head of the Small Business Administration who lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2020, wouldn’t rule out another Senate bid when asked earlier this year. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, who also ran in the state’s Senate primary in 2020, has also not ruled out a Senate bid.

One potential wild-card candidate has passed on running: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial firebrand and close Trump ally.

Unlike in Georgia, Republicans have successfully recruited their top candidate in Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters made a surprise retirement announcement earlier this year. Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers decided to take another shot at winning an open Michigan Senate seat after he lost out to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.

All eyes are now on Rep. Bill Huizenga, who is openly weighing a Senate run despite Republicans’ worries about a competitive Senate primary and the fate of his battleground House district.

Democrats are grappling with their own competitive primary in Michigan, as progressive former Michigan public health official Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens jockey for position.

New Hampshire is also an open-seat race in a Democratic-held state, but Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas starts as the favorite over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, both of whom appear for now to have a straight shot to the general election.

Is there even a fourth state for Democrats to capitalize on?

Democrats believe they’ll have strong national headwinds by next November, but they are still facing a difficult mathematical reality.

To flip the chamber, Democrats have to net four seats. But they have only two clear pick-up opportunities right now: North Carolina, especially if Republicans shift further to the right in their primary, and Maine.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) addresses volunteers at a campaign office on Nov. 4, 2024, in Cleveland Heights, Ohio.

Beyond that the map gets exponentially harder: Sen. Joni Ernst is mulling retiring in Iowa, which would give them an open race in a state where House districts are increasingly competitive. But some Democrats believe their chances would be better if Ernst was on the ballot, especially after she opened herself up for attacks by saying “we all are going to die” to an angry constituent concerned about potential Medicaid cuts.

Schumer recently had dinner with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is quietly mulling a comeback bid against Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican who was appointed to fill now-Vice President JD Vance’s seat. But many Democrats believe Brown is more likely to try to run for governor than return to his old stomping ground.

The pickings get slimmer elsewhere: Democrats will try again for their white whale of Texas, and Florida Democrats are desperate to show any signs of life in a one-time battleground that has become a dark shade of red.

In Nebraska, in-state Democrats are blessing, but not formally endorsing, independent candidate Dan Osborn’s second Senate bid, though Republicans are confident he won’t be able to catch them off guard after a close call last year.

Can Democrats weaponize Trump’s megabill successfully?

Democrats have spotted an opportunity to go on offense after Republicans passed their sweeping domestic-policy bill earlier this month. The bill polled unfavorably as it came together — particularly the cuts to Medicaid — even as significant percentages of voters across several surveys said they knew little about its contents.

“It’s going to raise insurance costs even if you don’t have Medicaid,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The New York Times on Thursday about Democrats’ message on the megabill. “Your electricity costs will go up by 10 percent. Even not poor people, it goes across the board. And it’s hitting at the same time that your costs are going up because of tariffs.”

Some Republicans in Congress acknowledge they’re concerned about the political consequences of their landmark legislation.

“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told Blue Light News shortly after the bill passed. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”

The White House is pushing polling suggesting some parts of the bill — implementing work requirements for Medicaid recipients and eliminating taxes on tips — could be part of a winning message next year.

TV ads across the nation will soon help determine who was right.

Congress

Cait Conley wins Democratic primary to face Rep. Mike Lawler

Published

11 minutes ago

June 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

NEW YORK — Army veteran Cait Conley has emerged victorious in the bitter Democratic primary for New York’s 17th Congressional District, setting up a general election fight between a past national security staffer for former President Joe Biden and Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.

Conley, who served six tours overseas before becoming the National Security Council’s director for counterterrorism, leaned on her military service during her campaign, casting herself as a tough-as-nails political outsider who could cut through the noise and find pragmatic solutions.

Congress

Democratic socialist Valdez wins open Brooklyn-Queens primary

Published

26 minutes ago

June 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

NEW YORK — State Assemblymember Claire Valdez prevailed in the tumultuous primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez, notching the Democratic Socialists of America a win in one of the left’s most high-profile proxy wars.

Valdez, who has served in the Assembly representing Queens since last year, was boosted by the city chapter of the DSA and Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Her major competitor was Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, who had the backing of the state Working Families Party and Velázquez.

The dynamics of those competing interests loomed over the campaign, exposing tensions among progressive Democrats.

The 7th District, which covers parts of Brooklyn and Queens, has been dubbed the “Commie Corridor.” That’s a nod to the DSA’s electoral power there — which it flexed during last year’s June mayoral primary when Mamdani enjoyed some of his strongest results in that district.

While the candidates agreed on most policy positions, Valdez and Reynoso spent months sparring over who had the most ironclad progressive values. Complicating matters further for them was New York City Council member Julie Won, who had the support of notable Asian American organizations and elected officials but struggled to gain enough traction to emerge as a real threat. Public defender Vichal Kumar was also on the ballot.

Even though the contenders all referred to Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” Valdez repeatedly criticized Reynoso for how long it took him to use that label. She also attacked him for accepting campaign donations from people affiliated with the real estate industry.

In the waning days of the campaign, Valdez sought to tie Reynoso to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — a tactic progressive candidates have long employed to mobilize their base, especially as the public’s view of Israel has grown increasingly negative. AIPAC said it was not involved in this race, and its independent expenditure arm did not appear to spend money on the contest.

Reynoso, meanwhile, tried to use Mamdani’s endorsement against Valdez, accusing her of being “beholden” to the mayor — a strategy that evidently did not land with an electorate that views Mamdani so positively. One significant flashpoint unfolded when the NYPD faced accusations of collaborating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement during a chaotic incident in Brooklyn, a charge Mamdani has denied. Reynoso said that when things “get complicated with the NYPD,” he doesn’t have “any bosses telling me to slow down and wait and work on messaging.”

A super PAC supporting Reynoso also attacked Valdez for not having as much political experience as Reynoso, who served in the City Council and as a community organizer prior to becoming borough president.

Valdez’s win is a boon for Mamdani, who put his political capital on the line in a handful of races this cycle — and angered Democratic power brokers in the process. Velázquez, a 16-term incumbent known as “La Luchadora” who’s served as a mentor for younger progressives in the city, was an early supporter of Mamdani in the mayoral election. But the two ended up on opposite sides in races up and down the ballot this year, stress-testing how the new mayor navigates relations with powerful, well-respected party figures.

Reynoso emphasized his “underdog” status in the race, despite his backing from Velázquez, the Working Families Party and major unions, pointing to Mamdani’s involvement and the district becoming more gentrified. Like Velázquez, Reynoso also endorsed Mamdani in the mayoral primary. But during the campaign, he accused the mayor of being “disloyal” to the veteran lawmaker.

Super PACs emerged as a major point of contention in the race as well. Reynoso and Won both criticized Valdez for putting public messaging on her campaign site — a common tactic viewed as a cue to PACs known as “redboxing” — where she presented talking points contrasting herself with Reynoso. Reynoso posted a redbox on his site too, but said he “had to do it” after Valdez put one up. After super PACs began supporting both candidates, Won touted herself as the only contender keeping their promise not to accept super PAC spending.

Throughout the campaign, Valdez leaned on her background as a union organizer. Originally from Texas, she moved to New York over a decade ago to be an artist. She is all but certain to win in the fall, when she will face Republican Melvin Rivera. Reynoso has not said if he will decline the Working Families Party ballot line for the general election.

Congress

Brad Lander trounces New York Rep. Dan Goldman in election upset

Published

41 minutes ago

June 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

NEW YORK — Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander defeated Rep. Dan Goldman in Tuesday’s Democratic congressional primary, ousting the two-term lawmaker after a bruising campaign that focused heavily on their differences over Israel.

On the campaign trail, Lander concentrated much of his attention on immigration and his opposition to U.S. military aid for Israel — and he was buoyed by an early endorsement from Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Goldman became a household name after helping lead the first impeachment of President Donald Trump in 2019. A former federal prosecutor and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, he was first elected to Congress in 2022 by a razor-thin margin, making his seat a target for progressives seeking to expand their footprint in the city’s congressional delegation.

The result wasn’t unexpected, as a recent poll showed Lander holding a commanding lead. With the primary in the bag, Lander is expected to coast in November’s general election, since there’s no competitive Republican candidate on the ballot.

Goldman’s district is safely Democratic, so Lander’s victory will not impact the party’s broader push to reclaim control of the House in November’s midterm elections.

Lander’s win is, however, a boon for the Democratic Party’s ascendant left wing — and a feather in the cap for Mamdani, who endorsed Lander the same day he launched his campaign in mid-December. In Lander, Mamdani has an ally who is more likely to push his priorities on Capitol Hill, a sharp contrast with Goldman, who never offered support for Mamdani during last year’s New York City mayoral race.

In many ways, Lander and Goldman, who are both Jewish, do not differ that much from each other politically. They are both ardent critics of the Trump administration’s hard-line immigration agenda and agree millionaires should be taxed at higher rates.

Lander found an edge, though, by making the race about Israel.

Fashioning himself a “liberal Zionist,” Lander attacked Goldman relentlessly on the campaign trail over the perception that the incumbent hasn’t been forceful enough in speaking out against Israel’s war in Gaza, which has left more than 75,000 Palestinians dead after being launched in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack. Lander has blasted Goldman for not supporting legislation to block more U.S. military aid for Israel and accused him of kow-towing to pro-Israel lobbying groups by not calling the country’s war a “genocide.”

Supportive super PACs, including one funded by prominent business owners who also backed Mamdani’s mayoral run, piled on, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads knocking Goldman and lauding Lander in the leadup to the election.

The talking points resonated with voters in Goldman’s district, which voted overwhelmingly for Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel’s government, in last year’s mayoral election.

Lander was also able to capitalize on his deep ties to the district, especially in the Brooklyn portion, which he represented for 11 years while serving as a member of the New York City Council.

Goldman tried to fend off Lander’s challenge by committing to spend as much as $1 million of his own money on the race. Ultimately, the money didn’t move the needle enough for Goldman, who serves on the House Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees.

Lander mounted his challenge after placing third in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary last June. Initially, he angled for a top job in Mamdani’s administration after the mayoral race, but he switched gears to run for Congress after the mayor reportedly informed him there would be no position available for him at City Hall.