Congress

The 5 big questions about the Senate battleground map

Published

12 months ago

July 13, 2025

The battle for the Senate won’t be decided for another year and a half. But the key questions that will determine who wins the upper chamber are beginning to come into focus.

For Democrats to flip the chamber, everything needs to go right. They have to net four seats, and a wave of retirements earlier this year is expected to make a handful of Democratic-held seats more competitive. There are also relatively few openings for the party to make pickups — only two of the 22 Republican seats up for reelection next year are in states President Donald Trump either lost or won by less than 10 points in 2024.

Yet Democratic leaders have projected confidence, fortified by the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) shortly after he broke with Republicans over concerns about their signature legislative accomplishment.

Here are the five biggest questions still hanging over the Senate race:

Can Democrats get their dream recruits?

Democrats are holding their breath for Roy Cooper and Janet Mills to decide if they’ll run for Senate in North Carolina and Maine — a former and current governor, respectively, who could dramatically improve their party’s chances to flip those swing seats. Their outstanding decisions have frozen recruitment in both states, signaling the party’s strong preference for them.

The odds look better for Democrats in North Carolina, where Cooper’s top political strategist told POLITICO earlier this month that the former governor was “strongly considering a run” and “will decide in the coming weeks.” North Carolina Democrats have argued that Cooper’s aw-shucks brand coupled with his strong fundraising network would instantly transform the now-open race.

Tillis announced that he was not running for reelection last month after clashing with Trump over his tax-and-spend megabill. That “puts a lot more pressure on Cooper to run,” said Democratic state Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, as he is “heads and shoulders above every other candidate.”

But Cooper hasn’t cleared the field yet. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel entered the Senate primary in April, and he demurred when asked if he’d exit if Cooper jumped in. Rep. Don Davis is also eyeing the race.

Republicans have yet to see a major candidate step up, although the president’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump has expressed interest.

National Democrats are still working to woo Mills, but her interest in challenging Sen. Susan Collins is less clear. Mills, who is 77 and won reelection in 2022 by 13 percentage points, told a Maine outlet in April that “I’m not planning to run for another office” but added that “things change week to week, month to month.”

Jordan Wood, the former chief of staff to former California Rep. Katie Porter, has already raised $1 million in his bid against Collins. But some Maine Democrats are concerned that the race hasn’t yet attracted bigger name contenders.

Can a bloody Republican primary in Texas put the state on the map in November?

Republicans have a messy — and expensive — primary on their hands down in Texas.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune discussed the high-stakes intraparty brawl with Trump — as part of a broader discussion on the 2026 midterm map during a recent White House meeting — where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is primarying Sen. John Cornyn.

GOP leaders have been privately trying to sway Trump for months to back Cornyn, arguing that his conservative bona fides match the president’s agenda and he would be a safer bet in November.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) speaks to press outside of his office at the Hart Senate Office Building on April 28, 2025, in Washington.

Cornyn got a break after Paxton’s wife announced she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” with his allies quickly seizing on the news. And he was able to get in some face time with Trump on Friday when he traveled with the president back to Texas.

But so far, Trump appears poised to remain on the sidelines for a while longer as polling has shown Cornyn consistently trailing Paxton in a primary. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is also mulling a Senate run, traveled with Trump on Friday as well.

Asked whether he was concerned about Cornyn’s standing, Thune told reporters Thursday, “We’re working on it.”

Democrats believe, and some Republicans fear, Paxton would be a weaker general candidate that could finally put the Lone Star State in play. Former Rep. Colin Allred is already in the race, but Democrats could face their own packed primary.

Who will Republicans run in Democratic-held battlegrounds?

Democrats have two super-competitive Senate seats to defend — and losing either could all but extinguish their dream of retaking control of the Senate.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp struck a blow to Republicans’ hopes of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff when he passed on a Senate bid in May.

Now, Republicans face a potentially messy primary, as several potential candidates eye a bid to challenge Ossoff, who already has a $15 million head start in fundraising. Rep. Buddy Carter is already in, and other members of Congress are considering a run, including Rep. Rich McCormick and Rep. Mike Collins.

Kelly Loeffler, the former senator and current head of the Small Business Administration who lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2020, wouldn’t rule out another Senate bid when asked earlier this year. Secretary of Veterans Affairs Doug Collins, who also ran in the state’s Senate primary in 2020, has also not ruled out a Senate bid.

One potential wild-card candidate has passed on running: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial firebrand and close Trump ally.

Unlike in Georgia, Republicans have successfully recruited their top candidate in Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters made a surprise retirement announcement earlier this year. Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers decided to take another shot at winning an open Michigan Senate seat after he lost out to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.

All eyes are now on Rep. Bill Huizenga, who is openly weighing a Senate run despite Republicans’ worries about a competitive Senate primary and the fate of his battleground House district.

Democrats are grappling with their own competitive primary in Michigan, as progressive former Michigan public health official Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens jockey for position.

New Hampshire is also an open-seat race in a Democratic-held state, but Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas starts as the favorite over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, both of whom appear for now to have a straight shot to the general election.

Is there even a fourth state for Democrats to capitalize on?

Democrats believe they’ll have strong national headwinds by next November, but they are still facing a difficult mathematical reality.

To flip the chamber, Democrats have to net four seats. But they have only two clear pick-up opportunities right now: North Carolina, especially if Republicans shift further to the right in their primary, and Maine.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) addresses volunteers at a campaign office on Nov. 4, 2024, in Cleveland Heights, Ohio.

Beyond that the map gets exponentially harder: Sen. Joni Ernst is mulling retiring in Iowa, which would give them an open race in a state where House districts are increasingly competitive. But some Democrats believe their chances would be better if Ernst was on the ballot, especially after she opened herself up for attacks by saying “we all are going to die” to an angry constituent concerned about potential Medicaid cuts.

Schumer recently had dinner with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is quietly mulling a comeback bid against Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican who was appointed to fill now-Vice President JD Vance’s seat. But many Democrats believe Brown is more likely to try to run for governor than return to his old stomping ground.

The pickings get slimmer elsewhere: Democrats will try again for their white whale of Texas, and Florida Democrats are desperate to show any signs of life in a one-time battleground that has become a dark shade of red.

In Nebraska, in-state Democrats are blessing, but not formally endorsing, independent candidate Dan Osborn’s second Senate bid, though Republicans are confident he won’t be able to catch them off guard after a close call last year.

Can Democrats weaponize Trump’s megabill successfully?

Democrats have spotted an opportunity to go on offense after Republicans passed their sweeping domestic-policy bill earlier this month. The bill polled unfavorably as it came together — particularly the cuts to Medicaid — even as significant percentages of voters across several surveys said they knew little about its contents.

“It’s going to raise insurance costs even if you don’t have Medicaid,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The New York Times on Thursday about Democrats’ message on the megabill. “Your electricity costs will go up by 10 percent. Even not poor people, it goes across the board. And it’s hitting at the same time that your costs are going up because of tariffs.”

Some Republicans in Congress acknowledge they’re concerned about the political consequences of their landmark legislation.

“You would be foolish not to worry about it,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) told Blue Light News shortly after the bill passed. “If you don’t keep the voters right with you, you’re going to awaken to a bad, bad, bad day.”

The White House is pushing polling suggesting some parts of the bill — implementing work requirements for Medicaid recipients and eliminating taxes on tips — could be part of a winning message next year.

TV ads across the nation will soon help determine who was right.

Congress

Mamdani-backed socialist ousts Espaillat in NY-13

Published

34 minutes ago

June 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

NEW YORK — Darializa Avila Chevalier has ousted five-term House member Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in a massive victory for the Democratic Socialists of America.

Her win marks another rebuke of the Democratic establishment in New York following Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral election last year, cementing the DSA as one of the city’s most potent political forces. The upset reflects a political climate in which voters have become increasingly willing to cast aside longtime incumbents in favor of outsiders promising change.

Avila Chevalier focused much of her campaign on attacking Espaillat for accepting donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and real estate interests during his career.

“I really feel that this is a fight to make sure that we are representing working-class New Yorkers who have been left behind by a politics that only serves the interests of corporations, of corporate landlords, of special interest groups that are making life in New York deeply unaffordable for so many,” Avila Chevalier said last month, during an appearance with Mamdani on MS NOW where the mayor endorsed her campaign.

Espaillat, who is the first formerly undocumented person to serve in Congress, came up short despite having the support of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Gov. Kathy Hochul, New York Attorney General Letitia James and New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin.

Avila Chevalier, 32, was a leading organizer in the pro-Palestinian encampment at Columbia University in 2024 and is a sociology Ph.D. student at the CUNY Graduate Center. She has served as an investigator for a public defender’s office and is originally from South Florida.

For most of the race, Espaillat was widely viewed as the favorite, but Mamdani’s late May endorsement of Avila Chevalier jolted a contest that began to show signs it was tightening. An April poll from Avila Chevalier’s campaign showed her down 14 points.

Her victory came despite intense outside spending in support of Espaillat, including from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm.

Avila Chevalier’s election to New York’s 13th district also shows a changing of the guard in Upper Manhattan and parts of the Bronx. Espaillat has served at the helm of a political alliance, known as the “Squadriano,” that has ruled over those areas of the city, home to large Dominican American and African American populations.

At times during the race, Espaillat and his supporters sought to frame the primary battle as a contest between gentrifiers and long-term residents.

“Those that choose or want to parachute in, after the men and women of this city, the working men and women of the city, have built our neighborhood, we’re gonna send them back home packing wherever they came from,” the 71-year-old member of Congress said last month.

The story of his political ascendance and reign in Upper Manhattan has also been characterized by an intense rivalry with Manhattan Democratic Party Chair Keith Wright, an ally of the late Rep. Charles Rangel, whom Espaillat challenged for Congress in 2012 and 2014.

But this year’s primary seems to have calmed the bitter rivalry between Espaillat and Wright amid the encroachment of the Democratic Socialists of America on disputed turf. Earlier this month, Espaillat endorsed Wright’s son , state Assemblymember Jordan Wright, who was also facing a DSA-backed challenger.

The peace pact wasn’t enough to fend off the challenge from Avila Chevalier, who seized on a progressive swing in the district ever since Mamdani handily beat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral primary there.

“We have come a long way from where we used to be as a party,” Mamdani said in the interview where he announced his endorsement of Avila Chevalier. “It’s time we have a new generation that not only takes us back to that ambition, but takes us forward to the tomorrow that so many New Yorkers are waiting for.”

Congress

Former Utah Rep. Ben McAdams is on track to return to Congress

Published

48 minutes ago

June 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former Rep. Ben McAdams won his primary Tuesday, paving the way for his return to Congress.

McAdams, a moderate, staved off a roster of progressive challengers in Utah’s newly redrawn 1st District, a rare deep-blue Salt Lake City district in a deep-red state that came as a result of a messy, decadelong redistricting saga.

McAdams will enter November as the heavy favorite in a district former Vice President Kamala Harris won by nearly 24 points in 2024.

McAdams won a GOP-leaning seat in the 2018 Democratic wave and governed as a centrist, Blue Dog Democrat who pushed for a balanced budget amendment — but he lost his reelection bid in 2020. He was one of the first Democrats to signal interest in running in the new 1st District and quickly garnered support from Utah elected officials and national centrist Democrats.

His progressive opponents attempted to paint him as too conservative, pointing to his previous mixed record on abortion. One opponent, state Sen. Nate Blouin, called on the other candidates to consolidate their support behind one person to avoid splitting the progressive vote. None agreed, and McAdams — who raised more money than the three other Democrats combined — prevailed.

Congress

Trump’s preferred candidate wins primary to succeed Elise Stefanik

Published

48 minutes ago

June 24, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

ALBANY, New York — President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik cruised to victory in his Republican primary Tuesday evening.

Anthony Constantino, the CEO of custom sticker company Sticker Mule, defeated Assemblymember Robert Smullen, a retired Marine colonel, for the nomination in a deep red upstate New York House district.

Trump, along with MAGA figures Roger Stone and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, backed Constantino’s bid, casting aside Smullen’s endorsement from the New York Republican Committee.

Constantino’s victory underscores the power of Trump’s endorsement in a district he has won during each of his three presidential campaigns. His win also highlights how a candidate who’s fashioned himself in a MAGA mold can continue to resonate in a largely rural and predominantly white district that has struggled economically for decades.

A former boxer, Constantino has dabbled in music, producing songs that praise Trump. He initially drew Stone’s attention after erecting a large “Vote for Trump” sign on a building in Amsterdam, N.Y., a city less than an hour west of Albany. Constantino also gifted Trump a bronze statue in the president’s likeness.

The circus-like primary became a bruising battle between a first-time candidate who channeled Trump-style promotion and attacks against an establishment favorite with a long, accomplished resume.

Constantino referred to Smullen as “Slime Bob” and called him “evil” in a text message to his rival. Smullen, in turn, called Constantino “unfit” and knocked his prior enrollment as a Democrat.

The race became so bitter that Smullen refused to shake Constantino’s hand at the conclusion of their only televised debate.

Constantino poured $10 million of his own money into the race and spent more than $3.8 million on TV ads, saturating upstate media market airwaves. Smullen’s campaign spent a fraction of that amount, more than $500,000 in ad spending, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.

The sticker impresario also displayed a marketing flare, printing t-shirts that touted his Trump endorsement.

Smullen leaned heavily on his biography and background as a combat Marine. But he often found himself responding — sometimes angrily — to Constantino’s barrage of attacks.

Constantino will now have to make peace with some New York power brokers as he pivots to the general election. Smullen is set to remain on the November ballot with the backing of the state Conservative Party’s ballot line. Constantino is being sued for defamation by that party’s leader, Jerry Kassar.

The House seat opened after Stefanik, who has represented the area for more than a decade, announced she would leave Congress after scuttling her gubernatorial campaign. Stefanik was previously Trump’s nominee for United Nations ambassador, but that was yanked amid concerns her vacancy would complicate the House Republicans’ narrow majority.

Stefanik did not endorse in the race to replace her.