Politics

Texas Latinos turned out in massive numbers for Democrats

Published

2 months ago

March 4, 2026

Latino voters flocked to Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Texas in droves, reversing a long-running erosion for the party ahead of this year’s pivotal midterms.

The numbers were dramatic: In five different rural majority-Latino counties, more votes were cast in Tuesday’s Democratic primary than for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

“These very Hispanic counties are amongst the swingiest in the country, and they’re really telling us something,” said Mike Madrid, an anti-Trump GOP strategist who wrote a book about Latino voters.

The results provide some much-needed hope for Democrats that they can compete not only in Texas as they have long dreamed, but in Latino districts across the country that could determine control of the House in November. Few groups of voters have vexed Democrats in recent cycles as much as Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley.

On Tuesday, the party started to seem like it had a way back.

The turnout surge among Hispanic and Latino voters helped power state Rep. James Talarico’s Senate primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting him up for a general election that has ignited Democrats’ fever dream of finally flipping Texas. In counties that are majority-Latino, Talarico won by roughly 22 points, according to preliminary results, compared to a roughly 3-point margin of victory over Crockett in the rest of the state.

It’s the latest sign that Latino voters who helped President Donald Trump return to the White House are not inherently sticking with Republicans. Democratic candidates put up strong numbers in predominantly Latino areas in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey last November, as well as a smattering of special elections, including a state senate race in Fort Worth just last month.

But the results are especially significant because South Texas had long been an early warning sign of Democrats’ problems with Latino voters. While Latino voters swung sharply towards Trump in 2024, the party had been losing ground in the Rio Grande Valley dating back several election cycles.

A number of Rio Grande valley counties swung away from Democrats in 2020, and kept swinging right in 2024: In Zapata County, for instance, where 94 percent of the population is Hispanic, Trump won just 33 percent of the vote in 2016, but took 53 percent in 2020 and 61 percent in 2024.

On Tuesday, it was among the five counties where more voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary than voted for Harris in 2024, along with Kenedy, Jim Hogg, Reeves and Dimmit. Talarico won 55 percent of the vote across those five counties.

Republicans leaned heavily into their recent gains with Latinos as they redrew congressional maps in their favor last year, with several majority-Latino districts among those they are hoping to flip.

But some of those flips now look a lot less certain. In the newly redrawn 35th Congressional District, which stretches from San Antonio to Austin and is majority Latino, Democrats’ four-way primary drew 7,500 more voters than Republicans’ three-way contest. Both primaries are headed to a runoff in the district that Trump won by 10 points in 2024.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), whose district was also redrawn to be more friendly for Republicans and who faces a tough election in November even after he was pardoned by Trump in December, said Tuesday’s results were evidence that Republicans’ gains in Texas in 2024 were “not a political realignment.”

Latino voters are angry with Republicans, he said, over continued high prices and Trump’s tariffs, along with ongoing immigration enforcement that has gone beyond what voters are comfortable with.

“If ICE would have just stuck on deporting criminals, people would have been OK with that, they would have been supportive,” Cuellar said. “But the moment they started going into work sites and going after criminal records — down here in South Texas, everybody knows somebody who has been here for a while — so that has turned Hispanics against Republicans.”

Madrid, the GOP strategist, argues Latino voters have always been more of a swing group than many people recognized. With Trump in office and high prices persisting, that creates openings for Democrats, both in Texas and across the country.

“It began literally, with Liberation Day, with the tariffs,” said Madrid, the GOP strategist. “When Trump announced those, you could see Trump’s numbers dropping with Latinos precipitously.”

Democrats’ best-case scenario in Texas would mean Cuellar and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) both hold their districts despite the effects of redistricting, with the party flipping the nearby 15th District, where Tejano singer Bobby Pulido won a primary to face Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, as well as the open 35th district. In that case, Republicans’ might pick up only one seat in the state despite their aggressive gerrymander.

And while national Democrats have not identified Texas as necessary to take back the Senate, there is still hope that Talarico could become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in more than three decades.

Talarico’s performance with Latino voters was notable not only because of his party’s recent struggles, but also because the last Democrat to come close in a Senate race in Texas — Beto O’Rourke in 2018 — faltered with Latino voters. O’Rourke lost dozens of predominantly Latino counties in the primary, and comparatively lower turnout among Latino voters in the general election hurt his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, which he lost by less than three points. O’Rourke’s struggles in the region presaged what was to come for Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley.

Talarico has campaigned hard in the region.

“Talarico’s faith-based messaging probably resonated really well, especially in a community that is heavily driven by faith,” said Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party.

Scudder described Tuesday’s result as a “good first step” in retreading inroads with the community ahead of November, but said the party had to “double down” on their efforts to engage. But local Democrats, scarred by recent elections, aren’t taking a victory lap.

“It’s not the party that’s driving people to the polls. It’s the horrendous behaviors of the man in the White House and his cronies. That’s what’s driving people to the polls,” said Sylvia Bruni, chair of South Texas’ Webb County Democratic Party.

Democrats, she acknowledged, have a “prime opportunity” to win back the community against a “backdrop of abuse that our people are experiencing full force.” But she said the party still hasn’t done enough to directly engage with voters in remote, expansive counties like hers, which includes Laredo.

“I’d be the first to say to my party, you would need to do a hell of a lot more for us,” she said.

How much ground Democrats can make up in Texas may also depend on who they are facing. In the Republican primary, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) did a few points better in Latino areas than he did in the rest of the state, suggesting he might be the stronger general election candidate with Latino voters if he can survive a runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. He’s run well in Latino areas of the state in the past.

“John Cornyn has been the senator for quite a while, and there’s a familiarity with South Texans,” said Daniel Garza, a Texas-based Republican strategist and president of the conservative Libre Initiative. “He’s like somebody who’s trusted, who has a lot of credibility, and who’s familiar, right? And so people are comfortable with him in that position. Paxton, not so much.”

Politics

It’s showtime for Trump’s revenge tour. Will he win?

Published

18 minutes ago

May 5, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

President Donald Trump’s power as the GOP’s kingmaker faces a major test with this month’s primaries. So far, he’s on rocky footing.

His revenge tour kicks off Tuesday in Indiana, as he tries to oust eight Republican state legislators who blocked his redistricting effort there. Then it moves on to Louisiana and Kentucky, where he’s backing challengers to two longtime enemies, Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie, who he’s been itching to unseat for years. Trump has also selected his favorite candidates in the crowded GOP primaries for Alabama Senate and Georgia governor.

But his picks have struggled to dominate their fields, with most holding only narrow leads in polling and some failing to pull far ahead in fundraising. In Indiana, even a few allies of the president are tempering expectations of a full eight-lawmaker sweep.

The results will reveal how effective the president’s political operation is at turning out Republicans when Trump is not on the ballot, and how motivated MAGA is to go along with his ongoing retribution campaign. It’s also a potent expression of his power ahead of the likely lame-duck phase of his presidency.

Some Republicans — even those involved in the races — say the shaky standing of Trump’s preferred candidates suggests that his ability to move his base en masse is beginning to slip. MAGA, they note, may be developing a mind of its own as the party begins to look beyond the Trump era.

“He’s hit his max power and now you’re seeing the backside of that power curve,” said former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a frequent target of Trump’s wrath who retired from Congress amid intense backlash for his 2021 vote to impeach the president and a new congressional map that would have left him in a member-on-member primary. “This will be his last competitive election cycle that will have any impact on him. And I think the base is starting to think into the future.”

Trump has a long history of unseating his congressional opponents, backing primary challengers to his critics and wielding his social media platform and his official bully pulpit to create such politically hostile conditions that many of his adversaries simply retire. Republican candidates have long jockeyed — and continue to trip over themselves — for his stamp of approval, hoping not to end up on the wrong side of his anger.

“The Trump endorsement is the most powerful and influential endorsement in the history of American politics,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle. “President Trump’s sterling record with his endorsements speaks for itself.”

Still, he’s produced a very mixed track record in contested races. Trump’s candidates have felled some of his biggest foes in GOP primaries, including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and other Republicans who voted to impeach the president in his first term. But he’s also suffered some high-profile losses; he failed to oust Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and has watched several of his picks fall short in congressional races over the years, including Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama and scandal-plagued Rep. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina.

Success will be even trickier this cycle: The May contests come as he continues an unpopular war in Iran that’s causing voters pain at the gas pump, as people sour on his economic and immigration agenda and as his approval ratings continue to sink.

“The [Trump] endorsement just isn’t moving voters. It just isn’t,” said a GOP operative working on the Alabama Senate race who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “When you’ve endorsed more than 800 people in 10 years, the potency of an individual endorsement wanes.”

May 5: Indiana

As the redistricting wars become a defining element of the midterms, Tuesday’s election will illuminate the president’s ability to maintain his grip on the Republican coalition.

While the White House and its allies have deployed the full force of its political operation against eight Indiana legislators — spending nearly $10 million across the races — they’re beginning to downplay the likelihood they will sweep all of them. Critics of the revenge effort say the strategy has been scattered and undisciplined.

How many incumbents survive will be an important piece of evidence predicting how the rest of May will go for the White House.

“We’ve tried to be helpful, as we always are, with our colleagues that are incumbents right now and will continue to be,” Rodric Bray, Indiana’s Senate President Pro Tempore who led the charge against Trump’s redistricting push, told Blue Light News. “The challenge, of course, is that money matters in politics. When $9 million is spent, that has a huge impact, and we’ll see what the result is.”

May 16: Louisiana

Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow is struggling to dominate the polls in her primary challenge to unseat Cassidy, who earned MAGA’s ire for voting to convict Trump on impeachment charges in 2021. The latest Emerson College poll shows Letlow locked in a close three-way race, with her at 27 percent, State Treasurer John Fleming at 28 percent and Cassidy at 21 percent. Nearly 1 in 4 likely GOP primary voters are undecided.

Letlow entered the race at Trump’s urging. She boasts endorsements from Louisiana’s GOP Gov. Jeff Landry and national groups like the Make America Healthy Again PAC, which has promised $1 million in support like distributing mailers — a needed financial boost given her middling war chest compared with Cassidy’s.

But Trump has not sent the calvary for Letlow, withholding his own war chest and not making any trips to Louisiana on her behalf. The president recently doubled down on his campaign against Cassidy, telling GOP primary voters to kick the incumbent “OUT OF OFFICE” — but Trump notably did not name-drop Letlow or urge voters to back her.

May 19: Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia

Trump faces two very different tests of his influence in Kentucky, where he is simultaneously boosting Rep. Andy Barr as retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor and pushing to oust a longtime thorn in his side in Massie.

The president waded in late for Barr, endorsing the representative less than three weeks before the primary while also offering one of his two rivals, businessman Nate Morris, a job in his administration — a move that could help propel Barr past former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

But it is Massie’s 4th District race that may prove more troublesome for Trump. The president finally fronted a challenger to the renegade Republican after Massie voted against the party’s signature tax-and-spending package last year, and Trump’s allies have now poured over $10 million into sinking the incumbent.

So far, Massie has withstood the onslaught. He leads his rival, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in polling, fundraising and name ID. One recent survey showed half of likely voters in his deep-red district with a libertarian bent preferred an independent-minded lawmaker, compared to 37 percent who wanted a strong Trump supporter.

Massie, who threads that needle by saying he’s with Trump “91 percent of the time,” argues that supporting him and the president aren’t “mutually exclusive things.” And he thinks the Trump-directed flood of outside money against him has its limits.

“If outside billionaires spend millions of dollars, they can change somebody’s profile,” Massie said in a recent interview. “But I think what they’re going to find out is that my brand is established well enough … that [they] can persuade some of the people, but they’re not going to be able to persuade enough of them.”

The president isn’t being driven by revenge in Alabama. But even there, his chosen candidate is battling to break through a crowded GOP primary field for Senate: The Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore has a slight lead in public polling, while Attorney General Steve Marshall, who has been in office for nearly a decade, is holding his own.

Meanwhile in Georgia, Trump’s backing of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ gubernatorial run is a rebuke of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who rose to national prominence by defying the president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and is himself running for governor.

Still, Trump’s endorsement has its limits: Rick Jackson, a health care executive, has a slight lead over Jones in most polls for the GOP primary as he also makes a play for the MAGA base. He’s been pummelling the lieutenant governor with millions spent on attack ads.

“If any other candidate had received that amount of negative, they would be polling within the margin of error of zero,” said a Georgia-based Republican strategist who is unaffiliated with any candidate and was granted anonymity to speak openly. “When you’re looking at the reasons why [Jones] is now in a toss-up race, I would say the President’s endorsement is by far the top reason why.”

As both Jackson and Jones compete for the same slice of voters, some Republicans see Jones’ inability to dominate the race as evidence of Trump’s waning influence.

“It’s not just Donald Trump — Georgia candidates historically have not benefited very much from endorsements from out-of-state celebrities,” said Jason Shepherd, former Cobb County GOP Chair.

May 26: Texas run-off

After Sen. John Cornyn finished ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’ March primary, Republicans in Washington were on standby for Trump’s expected endorsement. It never came.

Perhaps in the clearest example of MAGA beginning to make decisions without Trump’s explicit approval, Texas Republicans have rallied around the scandal-plagued Paxton. Polling now shows that a Trump endorsement for Cornyn, at this point, likely wouldn’t sway voters significantly — and Paxton would maintain his edge.

GOP Texas consultant Vinny Minchillo that if Trump does decide to weigh in, he “will have to sell this to the faithful and tell them exactly what to do. Especially if he endorses Cornyn.”

Trump’s endorsement still matters, he said, but “less so with each day that passes.”