Politics

It’s showtime for Trump’s revenge tour. Will he win?

Published

6 months ago

May 5, 2026

President Donald Trump’s power as the GOP’s kingmaker faces a major test with this month’s primaries. So far, he’s on rocky footing.

His revenge tour kicks off Tuesday in Indiana, as he tries to oust eight Republican state legislators who blocked his redistricting effort there. Then it moves on to Louisiana and Kentucky, where he’s backing challengers to two longtime enemies, Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie, who he’s been itching to unseat for years. Trump has also selected his favorite candidates in the crowded GOP primaries for Alabama Senate and Georgia governor.

But his picks have struggled to dominate their fields, with most holding only narrow leads in polling and some failing to pull far ahead in fundraising. In Indiana, even a few allies of the president are tempering expectations of a full eight-lawmaker sweep.

The results will reveal how effective the president’s political operation is at turning out Republicans when Trump is not on the ballot, and how motivated MAGA is to go along with his ongoing retribution campaign. It’s also a potent expression of his power ahead of the likely lame-duck phase of his presidency.

Some Republicans — even those involved in the races — say the shaky standing of Trump’s preferred candidates suggests that his ability to move his base en masse is beginning to slip. MAGA, they note, may be developing a mind of its own as the party begins to look beyond the Trump era.

“He’s hit his max power and now you’re seeing the backside of that power curve,” said former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a frequent target of Trump’s wrath who retired from Congress amid intense backlash for his 2021 vote to impeach the president and a new congressional map that would have left him in a member-on-member primary. “This will be his last competitive election cycle that will have any impact on him. And I think the base is starting to think into the future.”

Trump has a long history of unseating his congressional opponents, backing primary challengers to his critics and wielding his social media platform and his official bully pulpit to create such politically hostile conditions that many of his adversaries simply retire. Republican candidates have long jockeyed — and continue to trip over themselves — for his stamp of approval, hoping not to end up on the wrong side of his anger.

“The Trump endorsement is the most powerful and influential endorsement in the history of American politics,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle. “President Trump’s sterling record with his endorsements speaks for itself.”

Still, he’s produced a very mixed track record in contested races. Trump’s candidates have felled some of his biggest foes in GOP primaries, including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and other Republicans who voted to impeach the president in his first term. But he’s also suffered some high-profile losses; he failed to oust Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and has watched several of his picks fall short in congressional races over the years, including Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama and scandal-plagued Rep. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina.

Success will be even trickier this cycle: The May contests come as he continues an unpopular war in Iran that’s causing voters pain at the gas pump, as people sour on his economic and immigration agenda and as his approval ratings continue to sink.

“The [Trump] endorsement just isn’t moving voters. It just isn’t,” said a GOP operative working on the Alabama Senate race who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “When you’ve endorsed more than 800 people in 10 years, the potency of an individual endorsement wanes.”

May 5: Indiana

As the redistricting wars become a defining element of the midterms, Tuesday’s election will illuminate the president’s ability to maintain his grip on the Republican coalition.

While the White House and its allies have deployed the full force of its political operation against eight Indiana legislators — spending nearly $10 million across the races — they’re beginning to downplay the likelihood they will sweep all of them. Critics of the revenge effort say the strategy has been scattered and undisciplined.

How many incumbents survive will be an important piece of evidence predicting how the rest of May will go for the White House.

“We’ve tried to be helpful, as we always are, with our colleagues that are incumbents right now and will continue to be,” Rodric Bray, Indiana’s Senate President Pro Tempore who led the charge against Trump’s redistricting push, told Blue Light News. “The challenge, of course, is that money matters in politics. When $9 million is spent, that has a huge impact, and we’ll see what the result is.”

May 16: Louisiana

Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow is struggling to dominate the polls in her primary challenge to unseat Cassidy, who earned MAGA’s ire for voting to convict Trump on impeachment charges in 2021. The latest Emerson College poll shows Letlow locked in a close three-way race, with her at 27 percent, State Treasurer John Fleming at 28 percent and Cassidy at 21 percent. Nearly 1 in 4 likely GOP primary voters are undecided.

Letlow entered the race at Trump’s urging. She boasts endorsements from Louisiana’s GOP Gov. Jeff Landry and national groups like the Make America Healthy Again PAC, which has promised $1 million in support like distributing mailers — a needed financial boost given her middling war chest compared with Cassidy’s.

But Trump has not sent the calvary for Letlow, withholding his own war chest and not making any trips to Louisiana on her behalf. The president recently doubled down on his campaign against Cassidy, telling GOP primary voters to kick the incumbent “OUT OF OFFICE” — but Trump notably did not name-drop Letlow or urge voters to back her.

May 19: Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia

Trump faces two very different tests of his influence in Kentucky, where he is simultaneously boosting Rep. Andy Barr as retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor and pushing to oust a longtime thorn in his side in Massie.

The president waded in late for Barr, endorsing the representative less than three weeks before the primary while also offering one of his two rivals, businessman Nate Morris, a job in his administration — a move that could help propel Barr past former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

But it is Massie’s 4th District race that may prove more troublesome for Trump. The president finally fronted a challenger to the renegade Republican after Massie voted against the party’s signature tax-and-spending package last year, and Trump’s allies have now poured over $10 million into sinking the incumbent.

So far, Massie has withstood the onslaught. He leads his rival, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in polling, fundraising and name ID. One recent survey showed half of likely voters in his deep-red district with a libertarian bent preferred an independent-minded lawmaker, compared to 37 percent who wanted a strong Trump supporter.

Massie, who threads that needle by saying he’s with Trump “91 percent of the time,” argues that supporting him and the president aren’t “mutually exclusive things.” And he thinks the Trump-directed flood of outside money against him has its limits.

“If outside billionaires spend millions of dollars, they can change somebody’s profile,” Massie said in a recent interview. “But I think what they’re going to find out is that my brand is established well enough … that [they] can persuade some of the people, but they’re not going to be able to persuade enough of them.”

The president isn’t being driven by revenge in Alabama. But even there, his chosen candidate is battling to break through a crowded GOP primary field for Senate: The Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore has a slight lead in public polling, while Attorney General Steve Marshall, who has been in office for nearly a decade, is holding his own.

Meanwhile in Georgia, Trump’s backing of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ gubernatorial run is a rebuke of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who rose to national prominence by defying the president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and is himself running for governor.

Still, Trump’s endorsement has its limits: Rick Jackson, a health care executive, has a slight lead over Jones in most polls for the GOP primary as he also makes a play for the MAGA base. He’s been pummelling the lieutenant governor with millions spent on attack ads.

“If any other candidate had received that amount of negative, they would be polling within the margin of error of zero,” said a Georgia-based Republican strategist who is unaffiliated with any candidate and was granted anonymity to speak openly. “When you’re looking at the reasons why [Jones] is now in a toss-up race, I would say the President’s endorsement is by far the top reason why.”

As both Jackson and Jones compete for the same slice of voters, some Republicans see Jones’ inability to dominate the race as evidence of Trump’s waning influence.

“It’s not just Donald Trump — Georgia candidates historically have not benefited very much from endorsements from out-of-state celebrities,” said Jason Shepherd, former Cobb County GOP Chair.

May 26: Texas run-off

After Sen. John Cornyn finished ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’ March primary, Republicans in Washington were on standby for Trump’s expected endorsement. It never came.

Perhaps in the clearest example of MAGA beginning to make decisions without Trump’s explicit approval, Texas Republicans have rallied around the scandal-plagued Paxton. Polling now shows that a Trump endorsement for Cornyn, at this point, likely wouldn’t sway voters significantly — and Paxton would maintain his edge.

GOP Texas consultant Vinny Minchillo that if Trump does decide to weigh in, he “will have to sell this to the faithful and tell them exactly what to do. Especially if he endorses Cornyn.”

Trump’s endorsement still matters, he said, but “less so with each day that passes.”

Politics

The GOP has a midterm messaging problem. Ramaswamy isn’t helping

Published

9 hours ago

October 21, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The GOP has a midterm messaging problem. Ramaswamy isn’t helping

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Politics

Why Republicans’ massive cash advantage is evaporating on the airwaves

Published

10 hours ago

October 21, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Republicans are banking on a massive cash edge to help save their majority in Congress. But they are losing much of that advantage in an important arena: broadcast TV ads.

Republicans have spent $677 million on those ads across 10 key Senate battleground states, compared to $479 million by the Democrats. But the GOP’s money isn’t going nearly as far because they’re more dependent on outside groups that pay much higher rates than candidates.

The disparity has helped Democrats stay in the fight for Senate control amid an onslaught of GOP outside spending.

In Ohio’s Senate race, Republican groups make up 63% of the $218 million spent. But in spite of their nearly two-to-one spending advantage, they make up just over half of ads that are on the airwaves, according to data from the tracking service AdImpact. In Texas, Republicans have outspent Democrats by a three-to-one margin, but have aired just 58% of the ads. And in Michigan, the GOP accounts for 60% of the spending but just over half of the ads.

A large part of this discrepancy comes down to the mechanics of broadcast advertising. Candidates, and now political parties thanks to a recent Supreme Court ruling, are entitled to significantly lower rates. That has allowed Democratic candidates — who have posted bonkers fundraising hauls — to offset much of the GOP advantage in super PACs. Republican Senate candidates, on the other hand, struggled overall with their fundraising. And some GOP outside groups bought their ad time later, when it was even more expensive.

“There are limitations to the impact of ‘big money’ in politics,” said Sean Cooksey, a Republican former FEC commissioner. “It’s a good demonstration of the economics of campaign fundraising. Hard dollars really just go so much further.”

The disparity also shows “the Republican overreliance on outside groups,” said Ian Russell, a Democratic admaker.

“You get an eye-popping dollar amount, but it doesn’t actually translate into as many spots as you would think relative to a well-financed candidate,” Russell said. “[Republicans] were just hoping that they could spend their way out of everything that was going wrong for them. But the problem is, their issues run much deeper than a few ad buys can fix. Especially when you’ve got monster fundraising hauls from the Democratic side.”

Republicans in House and Senate races have long been more dependent on outside groups and megadonors, and for multiple cycles have seen their cash advantage undercut by fundraising strength from individual Democratic candidates. But that trend is particularly pronounced this year given the combination of Republican super PAC money and their candidates’ struggles.

In 2024, Republican outside groups spent only about 15% more than Democrats on TV ads across House and Senate general election contests, according to a Blue Light News analysis of AdImpact data. This cycle, GOP outside groups have spent 7% more.

In a few states, the discrepancy between dollars and airtime is less stark. Republicans account for 60% of the spending in Maine’s Senate race and an equal percentage of the ads, according to AdImpact. That’s in part because Sen. Susan Collins has outraised her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson over the whole cycle, although Jackson, who didn’t launch his campaign until July, raised far more in the third quarter.

The numbers show the shifting dynamics of campaign strategy after the Supreme Court opened the floodgates to more spending from parties by granting them the lower advertising rate.

Republicans have been faster to take advantage of the new rules: Major coordinated spending efforts from the NRSC and RNC have helped their side significantly this cycle.

Republicans have far outspent Democrats on Senate party-coordinated Senate advertising, $90 million to $34.6 million across TV, radio and digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.

“If I were the leader of either party, I would say you shouldn’t give a dollar, you shouldn’t give a single penny to these super PACs until you’ve maxed out to the party committee,” Cooksey said.

Some Republicans say that strategic errors have contributed to erasing their cash edge. A number of GOP strategists have also privately griped that MAGA Inc. — one of the major outside groups backing their candidates — bought TV airtime too late, forcing them to pay even higher rates and further draining resources and increasing the price of reaching voters. Republicans fretted for months about whether Trump’s well-financed super PAC, MAGA Inc., would get involved. The group has since spent heavily, but only launched its first general election ad buys in September.

“There is no question MAGA Inc. should have bought ads earlier in the cycle,” said one national GOP operative who was granted anonymity to discuss party strategy, noting that rates across the country increase as Election Day nears. Other top GOP outside groups, like the Senate Leadership Fund and the Congressional Leadership Fund, made their early advertising reservations much earlier in the cycle than MAGA Inc.

Trump allies waved away that criticism. A person familiar with the Trump operation’s midterm planning, granted anonymity to discuss strategy, said it’s “indisputable that the spending from the Trump political effort has kept us competitive in many Senate races.”

MAGA Inc. declined to comment.

Still, GOP outside groups are utilizing their cash advantage in some underappreciated ways.

Republican super PACs have massively outspent their Democratic counterparts on mail — roughly $157 million to $35 million for the general election — according to a Blue Light News analysis of independent expenditure filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission. That’s led by a whopping $44 million in spending on mail across 24 races from the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC, along with $23.8 million across 20 races from Elon Musk’s America PAC.

GOP-aligned super PACs have also spent more than Democratic ones on phone calls and text messages, the data shows.

Politics

Rick Jackson is Georgia Republicans’ best hope. Donald Trump may get in the way.

Published

10 hours ago

October 21, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Georgia Republicans are counting on Rick Jackson to save them from a wipeout in November — if President Donald Trump doesn’t get in the way.

The billionaire health care executive and political newcomer has spent nearly $200 million since he entered the Georgia governor’s race earlier this year. That’s boosted GOP hopes as many in the party have all but given up on the state’s marquee Senate race, where Rep. Mike Collins is struggling to close the gap against a formidably well-funded Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Republicans worry that their open contests for attorney general and lieutenant governor as well as control of the state general assembly could be in peril in a larger blue wave.

But Jackson’s deep pockets are being tested against a difficult political environment for Republicans, weighed down by unpopular Trump actions, including the war in Iran. And some in the GOP worry that the president’s repeated visits to Georgia could only make the situation worse.

“I don’t know that Trump coming helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year, and so becomes and becomes a catch-22 for Republican candidates,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County chair who is supporting Jackson.

One Georgia-based Republican strategist who is not involved in the gubernatorial race posited that Trump’s dual appearances in the state almost certainly did more harm than help. They, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak openly about the race to avoid reprisals.

“Every piece of data that I’ve seen, it is not MAGA Republicans that are unmotivated to vote in this election,” the person said. “All the data that I’ve seen is that the undecideds in our marquee races, and specifically in the governor’s race, have a very, very negative opinion of the president. So, I can’t really rationalize a case for how it would be helpful.”

Jackson, for his part, has carefully navigated his relationship with the president, and has not publicly broken with him on policy like other battleground Republicans. But he has not mentioned the president in any of the nearly 150 ads he’s run in the general election, according to an analysis of data from tracking firm AdImpact. Shortly after the RNC announced that Trump would return to the state this weekend, Jackson’s team said in a statement that the candidate will be campaigning in a different part of Georgia.

And during his only televised gubernatorial debate on Oct. 6 against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, Jackson never name-dropped the president — despite his opponent invoking Trump’s name eight times. Instead, the Republican mentioned popular outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Kemp five times and focused on Bottoms’ tenure as mayor of Atlanta during the COVID pandemic.

“It’s been proven time and again that when the message is on Georgia, and the results under Brian Kemp and the conservative vision and roadmap that’s been laid out here, that we win in Georgia. When the focus is on D.C. and personal politics, we lose,” said Cole Muzio, president of the conservative Frontline Policy Action group.

The Jackson campaign declined to comment for this story.

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement.

Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement that Republicans “are laser focused on winning, and our candidates will run the races necessary to best represent their districts and prevent Democrats from taking control.”

Jackson is one of several Republicans across the country who now must balance between keeping the president close enough to turn out Republican base voters, but not so closely as to alienate the center.

Though many Georgia Republicans see Jackson as their de-facto ticket-topper, they don’t see his win as a guarantee against Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, in a finicky battleground state like Georgia. Jackson has outspent Bottoms nearly five-to-one in the final stretch of the race, but still remains in a close race in public polling.

And yet, without him, Republicans fear the bottom would have already fallen out on races up and down the ballot, given how poorly Collins is performing in polls against Ossoff. Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, was dark in Georgia last week, a sign the race may be slipping out of reach.

“If Rick Jackson weren’t running, we would all be in a lot of trouble,” said Stephen Lawson, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and Jackson ally. “He’s our best hope at keeping the state red.”

A second Georgia-based Republican strategist, who is working on other races in the state, underscored how Jackson’s money is keeping the party afloat. “There is no question in my mind that without the extra $150 million he spent in his general election, that the ticket would be lost,” this person said. “That is the only reason there’s still a fight to be had.”

But, this person cautioned, the race is still very much a toss-up, and Jackson’s victory will rely on a large share of Georgia voters choosing to split their ballots between Ossoff for Senate and Jackson for governor.

Jackson’s allies are optimistic that a significant number of voters will do just that. A private statewide poll reviewed by Blue Light News found that roughly 19% of Georgia voters say they are definitely or likely to cast a vote for at least one Democrat and one Republican — a potentially significant pool of crossover voters that could power two very different results in the marquee contests.

Whether the sheer force of Jackson’s spending will prove successful enough to overcome Trump is a microcosm of the larger issue his party is experiencing across the country: National Republicans, flush with cash, hold an enormous financial advantage over Democrats. But money alone may not be enough to insulate candidates in battlegrounds or even in traditionally red territory.

“I don’t know that Republicans across the country should feel as bullish about the cash influx that we’ve gotten because it didn’t work here,” said the first GOP operative. “In terms of actively moving races in our favor, it at least didn’t work here.”

In the last month, as Bottoms began to spend more heavily on the air amid Jackson’s spending advantage, her campaign has noted that polling has started to move marginally in her favor — even if the race remains largely within the margin of error. Her high name ID, as well as cash spent after the primary to define her early, are helping.

“Rick Jackson has spent $200 million in this campaign but all the money in the world can’t hide the fact that he would be a lackey for Donald Trump,” TaNisha Cameron, a spokesperson for Bottoms, said in a statement. “Despite being outspent, Keisha’s message is breaking through and she has the momentum in this race right when it matters.”

Jackson is making more of an effort to tie himself closely to Kemp, who won over moderates and independents in his 2022 reelection for governor and has an approval rating that sits 30 points higher than the president’s in Georgia, according to a recent poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Kemp, for his part, has continued to be a presence on the trail for Jackson, including joining him on a statewide tour earlier this month and appearing in at least three TV ads for the campaign.

But Jackson’s pathway to victory requires him to not only secure crossover voters that may support Ossoff in the Senate race or the type of voters who broke for Kemp, but also turn out the MAGA base who powered the president’s two presidential victories in the perennial battleground.

The president is intent on still showing up for him.

Shortly after Jackson dispatched Trump’s initially preferred candidate, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, in June’s primary runoff, the president was quick to praise Jackson as standing “strong with ‘TRUMP.’” And in subsequent posts on Truth Social, Trump has called the health care executive a “good friend.”

Trump, onstage on Friday, called Jackson a “great businessman,” before adding: “I’ve been watching you, you are good, and he never did this before. Hedid it because he wants to straighten out things and he’s an amazing, an amazing story.”

Aaron Pellish contributed reporting.