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Tax Day is the GOP’s focus as Congress returns to war, shutdown and other challenges

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Republicans return to Washington this week eager to promote the pocketbook benefits of their nine-month-old megabill ahead of Tax Day. But the fallout from the war in the Middle East threatens to complicate that election-year message.

Explaining away rising gas prices and spiking inflation is not where GOP lawmakers wanted to be seven months before the midterms, but that is the challenge they face as a cease fire with Iran proves tenuous and there is scant evidence global energy flows will return to normal anytime soon. That’s not to mention the host of internal policy battles further distracting GOP lawmakers as they return from a two-week recess.

Still, they are seeking to rally this around the glue that has held their fractious coalition together — tax cuts — with Trump going on the road this week to tout the “big, beautiful bill” and House Republicans planning a Wednesday all-member news conference, according to two people granted anonymity to discuss the plans ahead of an announcement.

“My constituents are saving thousands of dollars and they know it,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said in an interview. “Republicans can and should take credit because the alternative would’ve been massive tax hikes under the Democrats had they won the 2024 election.”

She played down fears that the Iran conflict could weigh on the GOP’s tax-cut messaging, calling them “separate issues.” But GOP lawmakers have acknowledged concern that rising gas prices could make it harder for their party to claim it has made life more affordable for Americans.

Republicans, Malliotakis said, “need to ensure that the spike is only temporary and that we get those prices back down as soon as possible so we have all three: low taxes, affordable gas and a safer nation.”

The threat of rising prices was further underscored by new federal data published Friday showing inflation at its highest level in two years, with energy costs accounting for the bulk of the spike, as well as the collapse of peace talks with Iran over the weekend aimed at restoring oil flows through the Persian Gulf.

Directly tackling the issue, however, is not at the top of the congressional agenda at the moment. The Senate is set to restart debate on a sweeping elections bill most Republican members don’t think can pass, and the House is set to vote on a handful of measures rolling back environment regulations as well as an aviation safety bill and the renaming of several post offices.

House GOP leaders hope the deregulatory effort will help assuage some rank-and-file Republicans who want to do more to address cost-of-living issues ahead of the midterms. But they also have to face a pile of problems that have only grown more pressing in the two weeks since they broke for recess.

Those include a rapidly approaching deadline for the reauthorization of key surveillance powers and the ongoing furor over the Jeffrey Epstein files.

The former issue is caught in an internal GOP dispute between Trump’s wishes and those of conservative hard-liners, while the latter was turbocharged last week after first lady Melania Trump called on Congress to “uncover the truth” and hold a public hearing focused on survivors of the late convicted sex trafficker’s crimes.

Leaders also have to figure out how to deal with bipartisan demands to expel several members accused of personal misconduct — including Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), who is facing sexual assault allegations, and Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who admitted to an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide.

The tax cuts, however, are one issue that has proven able to bring the party together — even as members privately fret over whether that talking point will break through with voters.

“It’s all we have to run on,” said a House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s messaging. “Do you see us turning out other big-ticket legislation? This is it.”

The congressional GOP is also growing increasingly entangled with the six-week-old Iran war, which stands to cast a long shadow over the party agenda. Both chambers this week will likely be debating and voting on Democratic-led war powers resolutions. While the tentative cease fire has helped calm Republicans’ nerves, the White House is taking firm steps to ensure GOP members stay loyal.

The White House communications office sent talking points on the cease fire to GOP offices last week, arguing Trump had delivered “Peace Through Strength,” though much of that guidance referred to a possibility of a “broader peace agreement” that appeared kaput by Sunday morning.

“What’s left of the Iranian regime is desperate, dejected, and in denial,” the memo said.

But there were almost immediately sharp questions about how durable the cease fire might be, and the key factor in lowering energy prices — restoring the flow of oil and gas through the strait — remained wholly unsettled into the weekend.

Even some Republicans who backed Trump’s decision to strike are skeptical that a long-term peace agreement is within reach.

“Russia and China will help them rebuild their military,” Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska said in an interview. “We are safer today because Iran is significantly weakened. But the government is still in place and that means they’ll threaten us in the long term. We bought time.”

House and Senate Republicans also return to a toxic internal fight over how to end the nearly two-month-old Department of Homeland Security shutdown. House members left town after rejecting a Senate-approved deal funding most of the department, after Speaker Mike Johnson publicly trashed it. He then reversed course, infuriating members who hated the Senate’s two-track plan which leaves immigration enforcement funding for the party-line reconciliation process.

Despite endorsing the plan, Johnson does not intend to move forward on the Senate-approved DHS funding bill this week. The House GOP will instead wait until the Senate makes progress on the bill funding the remainder of the department through the partisan budget reconciliation process, according to four people granted anonymity to describe private plans.

But making progress on that bill is rife with complications. Senate Republicans are charging ahead with a plan not to find spending offsets to pay for the cost of the legislation, which would help keep Democrats from forcing tough Senate votes on a wide variety of hot-button issues as part of the reconciliation process.

But that decision will rankle House GOP fiscal hawks who wanted to include a raft of spending cuts and additional policies beyond immigration enforcement funding.

Some GOP leaders are counting on the possibility of yet another reconciliation bill that could happen later in the year incorporating the remaining items on the GOP wish list. Johnson suggested as much on a tense call with House Republicans over the recess.

That promise is not sitting well with scores of House Republicans who say they’re running out of time to notch GOP wins ahead of the midterms. Many want the next party-line bill to include a multitude of policies aimed at addressing affordability issues weighing on voters, while others want to include tens of billions of dollars for the Iran war the White House requested in its budget blueprint last week.

Johnson is also trying to wrangle a so-far intractable problem: how to extend the spy powers law ahead of its April 20 expiration.

He is planning to put a straight extension of the so-called Section 702 program on the floor this week, as the White House is demanding. But discussions continue with GOP hard-liners who want to vote amendments aimed at protecting American citizens from getting swept up in government surveillance — something that could upend Johnson’s plan.

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Congress

The AI threat undercutting the White House’s FISA push

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The growing power of artificial intelligence is driving new worries among both Republicans and Democrats about government agencies’ warrantless purchases of Americans’ sensitive data. And it’s complicating efforts to renew a federal spying law before it expires — including as House GOP leaders struggle to cobble together support for passage Wednesday a clean, 18-month reauthorization, per President Donald Trump’s wishes.

The federal government has long used commercially available information bought from data brokers for national security, military operations and criminal investigations, bypassing constitutional restrictions on what kinds of information agencies can gather on Americans directly. But agencies’ surveillance capabilities were limited by the vast amount of labor and expertise required to analyze millions of data points.

Now, though, AI is eroding that barrier, making it possible to parse massive amounts of personal information with ease. That’s causing a bipartisan group of lawmakers to call for requiring agencies to get warrants before making those purchases.

“Artificial intelligence has transformed American industries for the better while enabling an unprecedented capability to glean information from private data, increasing the risk of unconstitutional government overreach,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), a co-sponsor on the Government Surveillance Reform Act, saidin a statement.

Her bill would require federal agencies to get a warrant when buying Americans’ data, and when accessing Americans’ private communications under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

She and other lawmakers are also calling for Congress to insist on privacy safeguards before it reauthorizes Section 702’s surveillance capabilities, which were meant to collect data from non-U.S. citizens but have been used to investigate Americans without a warrant. The Trump administration and Speaker Mike Johnson want to reauthorize the law without changes before it expires Monday. Some lawmakers fear AI will enhance the government’s surveillance capabilities, pointing at how intelligence agencies have used Section 702’s authority toobtain data from Black Lives Matter protesters and political donors.

“Passing FISA 702 without strong new guardrails, while doing nothing to stop the government from buying Americans’ location data and feeding it into AI systems to conduct unprecedented mass surveillance, would be shocking negligence,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said in a statement.

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Capitol agenda: Cory Mills under fire but not going anywhere

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You may hear House members calling for his ouster after the resignations of Reps. Tony Gonzales and Eric Swalwell, but Rep. Cory Mills looks to be on solid footing.

Despite months of scrutiny over a range of conduct issues — including accusations of illicit involvement in federal contracts and stolen valor — members of both parties say the circumstances are different for the Florida Republican.

Republicans and Democrats are leaning on bureaucratic rationalizations before leaping to a fresh wave of expulsions, despite growing alarm around congressional sleaze.

They say they’re waiting for the conclusion of an active House Ethics investigation into Mills before moving to crack down on him — a similar approach they’re taking with Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who is set to hear her formal punishment from Ethics next Tuesday after the panel found her guilty of two dozen counts of misconduct.

“I have a three part test — Has the member admitted to the conduct in question? Has there been a finding by a court? Or has there been a finding by the Ethics Committee?” Republican Rep. Nick LaLota said. “I don’t think that the Mills case meets any of those three criteria.”

“If there’s expulsion votes, if they’re political, I’m not interested,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, the chair of the centrist New Democrat Coalition. “If they are based on facts established by process, I’m gonna follow the facts.”

Mills said in an interview he had told Speaker Mike Johnson he was “unfairly lumped into this” with Swalwell and Gonzales as well as with Cherfilus-McCormick. Unlike Cherfilus-McCormick, he is not facing a federal indictment. And unlike Swalwell and Gonzales, he is not facing charges of sexual misconduct — something Mills said Johnson has acknowledged.

It’s not clear where the investigation into Mills stands. Johnson told reporters Tuesday he is “looking into” it. Republicans have quietly worried about the accusations against Mills for some time, but the GOP’s narrow House majority has complicated the prospect of leadership engaging in any sort of accountability.

What else we’re watching:

— FISA lives to face its next test: Johnson is figuring out how to move forward with a clean, 18-month extension of a key spy power — Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act— as several Republicans plan to vote against a procedural step up for consideration Wednesday. Talks are ongoing between GOP leaders, hard-liners and the White House as the program faces an April 20 expiration.

— Sanders to Force Israel Arms Sales Vote: Sen. Bernie Sanders plans to force a vote Wednesday on two resolutions to block nearly half a billion dollars in U.S. arms sales to Israel. There’s renewed energy behind Sanders’ push as Democrats separately try to rein in Trump’s power to continue the Israel-US war in Iran.

—Vought’s Budget Pitch: White House budget chief Russ Vought is set to defend Trump’s $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request when he appears at House Budget Wednesday. Meanwhile House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers said Tuesday he expects to craft defense policy legislation with a $1.15 trillion budget topline, a move that could make the upcoming NDAA more politically palatable to Democrats.

Riley Rogerson and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.

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GOP leaders struggle to keep $75B immigration plan narrow

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Senate Republicans plan to forge ahead next week with the first formal steps to pass a party-line immigration enforcement bill totaling $65 billion to $75 billion.

But as GOP leaders scramble to meet President Donald Trump’s June 1 deadline to clear a bill funding ICE and Border Patrol for more than three years, they are facing competing visions within their ranks for what else should be tacked on as the party runs out of time to score more legislative wins before the midterms.

“I think this is it. This is our shot,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told reporters Tuesday, predicting that Republicans would not end up enacting a third filibuster-skirting budget reconciliation bill before Election Day.

“And that’s why you sense some frustration among a lot of the senators,” he added. “Some of which has been voiced and a lot of which it hasn’t.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune laid out the up-to $75 billion price tag for the bill to reporters Tuesday. The bill’s topline was in the range of what Republicans had been telegraphing over the past week but could spark pushback from at least one fiscal hawk — Senate Homeland Security Chair Rand Paul — because it’s higher than the roughly $50 billion it would cost to fund immigration enforcement at current levels for three years.

The worry among some senior Republicans is that expanding the scope of the bill will slow down the process and complicate the measure’s chances of passing. Instead, they want to simply fund the immigration enforcement agencies not covered under the Senate-passed measure House Republicans are still waiting to clear, two months after funding first lapsed for all of the Department of Homeland Security, which houses the immigration agencies.

“We have members who want other things. I mean, I want other things,” Thune said Tuesday afternoon. “But obviously we have a specific mission and purpose here.”

Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) is expected to release the budget resolution as soon as this week to set the general framework for the final package.

Senate GOP leaders are encouraging Republican senators to offer their ideas as amendments during the chamber’s marathon “vote-a-rama” debate, during which lawmakers are allowed to offer as many germane amendments as they wish.

“There was some suggestion that it ought to be a little broader and everything. I think that’s where the default position is, ‘Then put it in an amendment, and we’ll see if it can pass,’” West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, the No. 4 Senate Republican, told reporters Tuesday afternoon.

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said Tuesday the chamber intends to vote “next week” on approving the fiscal blueprint that will allow them to later pass the party-line immigration enforcement bill.

Thune can lose three of his own members and still win on the floor with Vice President JD Vance as the tie-breaking vote, and Republicans are cautiously optimistic they will have the votes next week.

But some fiscal hawks aren’t yet backing down from their demand that the immigration enforcement bill be paid for, which could broaden the scope of the measure as well as the number of issues where Democrats could force tricky amendment votes.

Even if Senate Republicans succeed in adopting the budget framework next week, an identical budget measure also needs to clear the House. GOP hard-liners rejected the Senate’s last attempt to end the DHS shutdown and are now demanding that Republicans use the party-line reconciliation process to fund all of the department.

Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson had been expected to hold a weekly meeting Tuesday where they would discuss the path forward on DHS funding, among other issues. But Thune said the sitdown was punted to Wednesday because of scheduling issues.

Mia McCarthy and Calen Razor contributed to this report.

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