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Capitol agenda: Scandals and Iran overshadow GOP tax pitch

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Congress is back and Republicans just want to talk up the pocketbook benefits of last year’s “big, beautiful bill” ahead of Tax Day this week.

But complicating that election-year message are a host of pressing scandals, the threat of further oil price spikes from the Iran war, the record-setting DHS shutdown and other GOP policy squabbles.

Here’s what to watch as Congress returns:

— TAX TALK: House Republicans are planning a Wednesday all-member news conference to promote tax cuts from last year’s megabill. President Donald Trump is set to take the message to Nevada and Arizona this week.

— EXPULSION FEVER: House leaders are facing a bipartisan outcry to expel members accused of personal misconduct.

The group includes Rep. Eric Swalwell, who abandoned his California gubernatorial run Sunday night and is under pressure to resign from office after sexual assault and misconduct allegations, and Rep. Tony Gonzales, who admitted to an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. Members are also targeting Reps. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick for alleged campaign finance violations and Cory Mills for a range of allegations.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna told us Sunday she wants to pair up a resolution to expel Swalwell and Gonzales. But one of the reasons GOP leaders have been hesitant to push Gonzales to resign is his seat is more competitive now.

— IRAN WAR: Republicans are increasingly worried about explaining away rising gas prices and spiking inflation. There’s little hope global energy flows will return to normal soon as Trump plans a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Both chambers this week will likely debate and vote on Democratic-led war powers resolutions. The White House is taking steps to ensure GOP loyalty, as some Republicans who’ve been supportive of the war begin to raise doubts.

— POLICY BATTLES: The Senate is set to restart debate on the SAVE America Act, the sweeping elections bill most Republican members don’t think can pass. And the party still faces an internal fight over how to end the DHS shutdown that’s entering its third month.

The House GOP doesn’t intend to move forward on the Senate-approved DHS funding bill this week and will instead wait until the Senate makes progress on its budget reconciliation bill, according to four people granted anonymity to describe private plans. But making progress on that reconciliation bill is rife with its own complications.

Speaker Mike Johnson also needs to find a way to renew the Section 702 spy powers law before it expires April 20. He’s planning to put a straight extension on the floor this week, but has yet to secure hard-liners who want to vote on amendments aimed at establishing protections from government surveillance.

What else we’re watching:

—Jacobs wants leadership post: Rep. Sara Jacobs plans to run for vice chair of the Democratic caucus next term, a source granted anonymity to discuss her thinking tells Riley Rogerson. Jacobs, 37, has already talked with most House Democrats about her plan.

—A big week of approps hearings: Trump administration officials are set to face questions about the Iran war and the DHS shutdown at a series of House Appropriations subcommittee hearings this week. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is likely to be pressed Wednesday by members of the Interior-Environment panel about the Strait of Hormuz and energy costs. The Homeland Security subcommittee hears Thursday morning from Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott, Immigration and Customs Enforcement acting director Todd Lyons and Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow.

Meredith Lee Hill and Riley Rogerson contributed to this report.

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John Barrasso to campaign with Ken Paxton

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Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered seat.

Barrasso said in an interview that he plans to join a bus tour with Paxton, who is locked in a tossup battle with Democrat James Talarico despite Donald Trump carrying Texas by roughly 14 percentage points two years ago.

The No. 2 leader, Barrasso is the most senior Senate Republican to hit the trail in Texas in the general election. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has held fundraisers with Paxton but has not publicly campaigned with him.

Barrasso also plans to campaign with former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan and Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky. He was also in South Carolina this week with Trump and said he had made stops in Iowa, Ohio and Kansas — all home to battleground Senate races.

Republicans are navigating steep headwinds as they try to fend off Democratic momentum and voter dissatisfaction to keep their majority. But Barrasso said he was “very optimistic” that the party would keep control of the Senate.

“There’s a lot of energy at every event I’ve gone to, and of course there are eight, 10 races now, a number for sure, that are within the margin of error,” Barrasso said. “So there’s a lot at stake in the next week and a half, and nothing’s going to be left on the field.”

He said races for Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire are still within the GOP’s grasp. But Republicans are also on defense in states like Kansas, Iowa and Texas where Trump won easily in 2024.

Republicans have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Texas to boost Paxton, even as some in the party lament some of the campaign decisions he’s made.

“I mean, I hope Ken Paxton wins. … But you know, Ken Paxton also has some responsibility here to be a better candidate and to raise some of his own money and to not be a drain on the system,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in an interview Thursday. “Having said all that, I hope he’s a senator.”

Democrats are now pushing into even deeper red territory, including South Carolina and Mississippi. Barrasso, in the interview, said that he was “very confident” that Republicans would hold both states, which have seen an influx of late spending.

“You know the president has really opened up his campaign coffers, and he’s fully invested time as well as money,” Barrasso said. “Every candidate wishes there were more resources, every candidate, so there’s no surprise there, but we feel we’re fully resourced to get … the message out.”

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Capitol agenda: Bennie Thompson warns about Dems’ late bet

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National Democrats finally went into Mississippi this week, putting over $1 million behind Scott Colom‘s campaign to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

To the state’s most prominent Democrat, it was welcome — but too late.

“Anything is appreciated, and I don’t want to seem like people here are not appreciative. But you know, we’ve been singing this song for almost a year,” Rep. Bennie Thompson said in an interview. “Scott is a quality candidate and he could’ve benefited from early recognition from the Senate Majority PAC and others.”

Thompson’s sentiments reflect ongoing frustration among some Democrats who have been beating the drum for more national investment in Black candidates in races once seen as long shots that are now anything but.

“Mississippi people are ready for a new direction. They’re ready to fire Cindy Hyde-Smith. They want somebody that’s going to actually look out for our state, and it’s great that the country is starting to realize that,” Colom said in an interview.

The sentiments were also echoed by Florida Democrat Angie Nixon, who is on her own quest to defeat incumbent GOP Sen. Ashley Moody.

Nixon, referring more broadly to national Democratic donors, said the party needs to do more in her state, and stat.

“I can win. I’m going to win. We just need people to really lean into this moment right now,” she told Dasha Burns in the latest episode of The Conversation.

Neither the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nor Senate Majority PAC has publicly announced a Florida television buy on her behalf, but Nixon was clear that the DSCC has been “very helpful” recently, opening up doors to connect her with donors and having her participate in fundraisers with DSCC head Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

“They are now seeing that this seat is actually winnable,” Nixon said.

Colom has also been a part of DSCC fundraisers and Schumer has directed donors to him.

The Senate Majority PAC declined to comment. DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said Nixon and Colom are running “inspiring and energetic campaigns” and that her group is “committed to expanding the map as much as possible” despite limited resources and a flood of Republican money.

But Thompson argued that party leaders need to move much faster in the future to invest early in strong candidates who can mobilize the large populations of Black voters in Southern states that others deem unwinnable.

“The South in general is ripe for Democrats, but it has to be a sustained investment,” he said. “Given the loyalty that the African American population gives to the Democratic Party, it is just an ideal opportunity to grow the party and ultimately get some Democrats elected.”

“But,” he added, “that engagement can’t come two weeks or less before the general election.”

What else we’re watching: 

— DEMOCRATS’ LOOMING TRADE BATTLE: Cracks in Democrats’ trade policy are starting to emerge within the party, even as candidates are presenting a united front on repealing Trump’s tariffs on the campaign trail. The simmering debate over how far to reject Trump’s trade agenda cuts across geography and ideology. It’s likely to bubble into public view in the coming months as Democrats prepare to assume more power in Congress and jump into the wide-open upcoming presidential primary.

— DEMS WANT MULLIN IN HOTSEAT: A top priority for Democrats if they get more power in Congress in November: Forcing the Trump administration’s controversial and unpopular immigration crackdown back in the headlines. And one of the people they plan to go after hard is Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin — the former lawmaker who was brought into the role in part because he was seen as someone who could play well with Congress, unlike former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. A House Democratic aide said that committees plan to look at how DHS under Mullin has failed to deploy body cameras to many immigration agents, allowed dismal conditions at immigration facilities and failed to cooperate with the department’s Inspector General.

Adam Wren, Daniel Desrochers and Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed to this report.

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Elon Musk pours another $76 million into boosting Republicans

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave another $76 million to boost Republicans in the first two weeks of October, bringing his total giving this cycle to more than $442 million.

The additional funds, which Musk gave to his super PAC, America PAC, make the group one of the biggest super PACs this cycle. America PAC has already spent tens of millions of dollars on digital advertising, mailers and text messages as it targets competitive House and Senate races across the country.

Musk — the world’s wealthiest man — is by far the biggest single donor this cycle, with his political giving this year far exceeding even the roughly $290 million he spent in 2024. There is no precedent in modern American history for any donor spending as much as he has.

While the Tesla CEO and former DOGE lead has spent significantly to help Republicans, he has not been joining GOP candidates on the campaign trail this fall like he had in the past. Republicans privately acknowledged Musk could be politically toxic after the party lost a major Wisconsin judicial race in the spring of 2025 where Musk had become both the biggest funder and a campaign issue.

Still, Musk’s money has been instrumental for Republicans this fall. His earlier giving this cycle includes $158 million for Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, which was transferred to a super PAC boosting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is locked in a tight Senate race against Democrat James Talarico. Democrats have looked to make his money a campaign issue: Talarico recently responded to an attack from Musk on the Musk-owned X social media site by saying that there was “deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal U.S. Senator.”

Musk has also given to House Republicans’ super PAC arm, President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, and a group seeking to repeal Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, along with a smattering of GOP candidates.

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