Congress
State of play: The battle for Congress
There are two uncalled Senate races — both leaning toward Democrats — and about two dozen uncalled House races three days after Election Day. With the seats remaining, Republicans have the clear inside track for retaining control of the House.
Nevada Senate: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen padded her lead as more ballots were counted in the Silver State, now leading GOP nominee Sam Brown by around 17,000 votes — or a little more than 1 percentage point. Interestingly, the “none of these candidates” option — a rather unique option in Nevada — is pulling in around 3 percent of the vote, a potentially decisive figure in this razor-thin contest. Late-counted ballots have consistently favored Rosen. Advantage Rosen.
Arizona Senate: Republican nominee Kari Lake chipped away at Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s lead in this contest throughout the counting on Thursday, nabbing a favorable batch of ballots out of critical Maricopa County. Gallego leads by nearly 44,000 votes, with an estimated 76 percent of the vote counted. The state continues to drop results of batches of counted ballots each day, but it may be a while before we have a definitive answer here. Advantage Gallego.
Pennsylvania Senate: The Associated Press called the contest for Sen.-elect David McCormick (R) on Thursday, though Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey has yet to concede. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt estimated there are at least another 100,000 ballots to count in the commonwealth, with the margin in the Senate race standing at under 33,000 votes. That’s a tall order for Casey to make up, but Democrats are urging patience as the ballots are tallied.
House races: There are 25 races remaining to be called by the AP, with California Reps. Julia Brownley (D) and Young Kim (R) seeing their victories confirmed overnight. Republicans currently have 211 called seats, while Democrats have 199.
A couple of races to highlight:
- Maine’s 2nd: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is leading by about 2,200 votes over GOP challenger Austin Theriault, but the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures will kick in next week, according to a Thursday news release from the state. Theriault’s campaign has also indicated it will pursue a recount, which would take place following the ranked-choice tabulation, so prepare for a final result to take a while here.
- Washington’s 3rd: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, consistently seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle given the red tinge of her district, has seen her lead over GOP nominee Joe Kent grow to around 11,000 votes as more ballots have been tallied. Around 87 percent of the estimated votes are in, so the incumbent looks to be in prime position for reelection.
- Arizona’s 6th: There were several lead changes throughout the day Thursday as more votes rolled in around this Tucson-adjacent district. Democratic nominee Kirsten Engel currently leads GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani by just more than 200 votes with about 72 percent of estimated ballots tallied. The fate of this seat may go a long way toward determining whether Democrats have any path of flipping the House, so keep a close eye here.
- California’s 47th: Another crucial seat for Democrats if they hold any hope of regaining House control remains tight as more votes are counted. Democratic nominee Dave Min ate into GOP nominee Scott Baugh’s initial edge on Election Day in this contest to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D). The margin is currently just more than 600 votes, with 76 percent of the vote tallied.
Congress
Key GOP centrist Rep. Don Bacon will not seek reelection
Rep. Don Bacon will not seek reelection and plans to retire at the end of his term, according to two people familiar with his plans. The announcement is expected Monday.
Bacon is a key GOP centrist in the House and represents one of only three Republican-held districts that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election.
Congress
Rep. Dusty Johnson to announce a bid for South Dakota governor Monday
Rep. Dusty Johnson will announce a bid for South Dakota governor Monday, according to two people granted anonymity to speak about private conversations.
Johnson has served as South Dakota’s sole House representative since 2019. He’s been a key player in major deals on Capitol Hill in recent years as the head of the Main Street Caucus of Republicans.
Johnson, long expected to mount a bid for higher office, will make the announcement in Sioux Falls.
Johnson is the eighth House Republican to announce a run for higher office in 2026. Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Byron Donalds of Florida, Randy Feenstra of Iowa, John James of Michigan and John Rose of Tennessee are also seeking governor’s offices; Reps. Andy Barr of Kentucky and Buddy Carter of Georgia have announced Senate runs.
Congress
Senate slated to take first vote on megabill Saturday
Senate Republicans are planning to take an initial vote at noon on Saturday to take up the megabill.
Leadership laid out the timeline during a closed-door lunch on Friday, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said after the lunch. A person granted anonymity to discuss internal scheduling confirmed the noon timeline but cautioned Republicans haven’t locked in the schedule yet.
During the lunch, Speaker Mike Johnson pitched Senate Republicans on the tentative SALT deal, according to three people in the room. He said the deal was as good as Republican can get, according to the people.
Johnson noted he still has “one holdout” — an apparent reference to New York Republican Nick LaLota, who said in a brief interview Friday that if there was a deal, he was not part of it.
Leaving the meeting, Johnson was asked by reporters whether he thought Senate Republicans would accept the SALT deal. “I believe they will,” he replied. “They’re going to digest the final calculations, but I think we’re very, very close to closing that issue.”
In the meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Johnson laid out details of the fragile agreement, telling Senate Republicans the House SALT deal would be cut in half, to total roughly $192 billion. They restated it would raise the SALT cap to $40,000 for five years under the current House-negotiated SALT deal, and snap back to the current $10,000 cap after that.
In related matters, Kennedy and Hoeven also said the Senate will keep its provider tax proposal but delay its implementation, which Republicans believe will help it comply with budget rules. and Johnson also told Senate Republicans that he wants to do another reconciliation bill — which senators took to mean they would get another opportunity to secure spending cuts or provisions passed that have been squeezed out of the megabill.
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