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State of play: The battle for Congress

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There are two uncalled Senate races — both leaning toward Democrats — and about two dozen uncalled House races three days after Election Day. With the seats remaining, Republicans have the clear inside track for retaining control of the House.

Nevada Senate: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen padded her lead as more ballots were counted in the Silver State, now leading GOP nominee Sam Brown by around 17,000 votes — or a little more than 1 percentage point. Interestingly, the “none of these candidates” option — a rather unique option in Nevada — is pulling in around 3 percent of the vote, a potentially decisive figure in this razor-thin contest. Late-counted ballots have consistently favored Rosen. Advantage Rosen. 

Arizona Senate: Republican nominee Kari Lake chipped away at Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s lead in this contest throughout the counting on Thursday, nabbing a favorable batch of ballots out of critical Maricopa County. Gallego leads by nearly 44,000 votes, with an estimated 76 percent of the vote counted. The state continues to drop results of batches of counted ballots each day, but it may be a while before we have a definitive answer here. Advantage Gallego. 

Pennsylvania Senate: The Associated Press called the contest for Sen.-elect David McCormick (R) on Thursday, though Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey has yet to concede. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt estimated there are at least another 100,000 ballots to count in the commonwealth, with the margin in the Senate race standing at under 33,000 votes. That’s a tall order for Casey to make up, but Democrats are urging patience as the ballots are tallied.

House races: There are 25 races remaining to be called by the AP, with California Reps. Julia Brownley (D) and Young Kim (R) seeing their victories confirmed overnight. Republicans currently have 211 called seats, while Democrats have 199.

A couple of races to highlight: 

  • Maine’s 2nd: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is leading by about 2,200 votes over GOP challenger Austin Theriault, but the state’s ranked-choice voting procedures will kick in next week, according to a Thursday news release from the state. Theriault’s campaign has also indicated it will pursue a recount, which would take place following the ranked-choice tabulation, so prepare for a final result to take a while here. 
  • Washington’s 3rd: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, consistently seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle given the red tinge of her district, has seen her lead over GOP nominee Joe Kent grow to around 11,000 votes as more ballots have been tallied. Around 87 percent of the estimated votes are in, so the incumbent looks to be in prime position for reelection. 
  • Arizona’s 6th: There were several lead changes throughout the day Thursday as more votes rolled in around this Tucson-adjacent district. Democratic nominee Kirsten Engel currently leads GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani by just more than 200 votes with about 72 percent of estimated ballots tallied. The fate of this seat may go a long way toward determining whether Democrats have any path of flipping the House, so keep a close eye here. 
  • California’s 47th: Another crucial seat for Democrats if they hold any hope of regaining House control remains tight as more votes are counted. Democratic nominee Dave Min ate into GOP nominee Scott Baugh’s initial edge on Election Day in this contest to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D). The margin is currently just more than 600 votes, with 76 percent of the vote tallied. 
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Congress

Progress made on House budget, key holdout says

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A key ultraconservative holdout said Wednesday that enough progress has been made in stalled House budget talks that a blueprint needed to unlock President Donald Trump domestic policy plans could be released by the end of the week.

Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina is one of several Freedom Caucus members who sit on the House Budget Committee and have so far rejected Speaker Mike Johnson’s initial budget plan last week — causing GOP leaders to scramble for hundreds of billions more in spending cuts.

“We’re working on full text,” Norman said in a brief interview Wednesday. “But I will tell you, it’s promising, what we’re doing.”

Republicans are still working through deeply complex policy questions — including weighing how much in costly tax cuts the hard-liners will support. GOP leaders are acknowledging they may need to dial back some of the tax provisions to get the resolution through the Budget Committee, with senior House Republicans privately skeptical a final budget resolution can come together by Friday. They’re hopeful, instead, for next week.

Johnson’s entire timeline for passage of the Trump agenda faced near-collapse earlier this week due to the right-wing backlash. But Norman signaled he’s so far inclined to support the reworked budget resolution if “Trump’s on board with it” and if it accomplishes “what Trump wants to do” on border security, deportation operations and other measures.

Amid the House infighting, Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said he would move forward with his own, competing blueprint next week.

Johnson said Wednesday he was “hoping” to present a revised budget plan to his conference by the end of this week. He also urged Graham to “understand the reality of the house” as “a very different chamber with very different dynamics.”

“The House needs to lead this if we’re going to have success,” he said. “We feel very optimistic we’re getting there, and we’re going to find that equilibrium point and get this done.”

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Congress

Hispanic Democrats privately strategize how to counter Trump with immigration groups

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Congressional Hispanic Caucus members met privately with immigration advocacy groups Tuesday night to strategize how to counter President Donald Trump’s executive actions that have already altered the immigration system.

The goals of the meeting, which were outlined in a document obtained by POLITICO, include increasing immigration legal defense, fundraising for the influx of legal needs and messaging efforts to counter anti-immigrant rhetoric from Republicans. It’s the latest sign that Democrats are scrambling over a strategy to fight Trump as they look on from the congressional minority.

Lawmakers and immigration groups want to focus on “families, farmworkers and Dreamers,” something Democrats on Capitol Hill have been reiterating since Trump took office last month. Trump has signed multiple executive actions concerning immigration and the House GOP has been working to tee up a tough-on-migrants legislative agenda.

Recent executive orders include undoing Biden-era border policies, drastically changing the asylum system and targeting existing legal pathways. Democrats continue to reckon with their 2024 loss, after Republicans aggressively attacked them over immigration and border policies and Democrats struggled to mount an effective response. Trump has continued that messaging strategy from the White House, blitzing the airwaves and social media feeds with immigration enforcement actions.

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Congress

Senate panel will advance budget next week, Graham says

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The Senate will move forward with a budget blueprint next week setting out a two-track approach to enacting President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda, key senators said Wednesday.

The announcement, made by Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham inside a closed-door Senate GOP lunch, comes after a competing framework from Speaker Mike Johnson and other House Republican leaders has stalled in recent days due to internal conflicts in that chamber.

Graham (R-S.C.) made a presentation on the blueprint he plans to advance, which will tee-up the Senate’s two-part reconciliation strategy — starting with a border, energy and defense bill. A tax-focused package would follow.

“I wouldn’t faint with surprise if we marked up next week,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), a Budget Committee member said coming out of the lunch. A person in the meeting confirmed the Budget Committee plans to vote next week.

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