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He’s facing very long odds. So why are New York Republicans betting on Bruce Blakeman?

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ALBANY, New York — Empire State Republicans expect Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman to turbo charge down-ballot turnout as their party’s gubernatorial nominee — boosting GOP candidates in crucial suburban swing races as he mounts an otherwise uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

If Blakeman falls short in an underdog bid, New York Republicans can still be successful in what’s shaping up to be a tough political environment.

“Blakeman’s top appeal for Republicans, particularly in swing suburbs, can be realized even if he loses,” said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. “He could help them on Long Island, Westchester and the Hudson Valley to possibly win seats that could make a difference on which party controls the gavels in Congress. Blakeman is in a position to do that.”

Who leads the Republican ticket in this deep blue state will have critical implications for competitive House races that stand to determine which party will control the narrowly divided chamber and the course of President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Blakeman’s coattails offer one possible remedy to GOP headwinds in next year’s midterm elections, as Democrats seize on affordability issues and stoke their base’s anger at the sitting president’s policies.

Blakeman, 70, is now the likely Republican nominee for governor after Rep. Elise Stefanik abruptly suspended her campaign last week. Stefanik and Blakeman are both Trump allies, and the 41-year-old upstate New York House member is far better known statewide.

Unlike Stefanik, Blakeman hails from a vote rich political bellwether in a state that’s otherwise dominated by Democrats. He is a self-described “pro-choice” Republican — a stance that will likely attract some independent and conservative Democratic voters. And he has cultivated a mutually beneficial relationship with The New York Post, the influential conservative tabloid that’s part of Trump’s media diet.

His bid is still considered a longshot against Hochul, who led Blakeman by 25 points in a Siena University poll this month. He remains largely unknown to most New Yorkers, and Republicans are trying to reverse a 23-year losing streak in statewide elections. Blakeman’s prior statewide bid for a U.S. Senate seat ended with a loss.

In an interview, Blakeman pointed to his ability to win in a large, diverse suburban county as a sign that he can be successful statewide.

“I want our congressional and Senate and Assembly and local candidates to be successful as well,” he said. “If you look at the demographics of Nassau County, we match the state almost as a mirror image. I feel very confident we’re going to win.”

New York Republicans know the power the top of their party’s ticket can wield in a midterm election. Then-Rep. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 campaign came within 6 points of defeating Hochul, but the Long Islander’s strong suburban showing was credited with helping sweep several House Republicans into office. GOP leaders are poised to replicate that plan in 2026 — a doubling down on a suburban strategy that will also tie all Democrats, including Hochul, to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani.

Republicans want to cast the 34-year-old democratic socialist as a lightning rod. Blakeman, whose day-to-day movements are covered in the Big Apple’s media market, would have easy access to blast the left-leaning mayor’s policies.

The most immediate impact may be on the Long Island districts led by moderate Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen — both of which will be top GOP targets.

“It’s definitely going to put those two Nassau seats, Suozzi and Gillen seats into play,” said Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar. “I already thought the Gillen seat would be a top seat in the nation. Suozzi has a number of solid candidates nipping at his toes there to begin with. If I was residing in Nassau County and looking for some very positive results in 2026, I think I just hit the jackpot.”

Suozzi and Gillen campaign representatives pointed to their work with Republicans and ability to win swing seats regardless of the top of the ticket.

“Everyone knows that Tom Suozzi works across the aisle in Congress to take on the affordability crisis, lower healthcare costs, fix the immigration mess and keep our communities safe,” said Kim Devlin, a Suozzi senior advisor. “That’s why he was able to win his district, even while Trump won it as well. People are sick of partisanship and that’s why they will re-elect Tom Suozzi.”

The Gillen campaign offered a similar assessment, noting that she “has a proven record of embracing bipartisanship to achieve results to lower the costs of living and improve public safety.”

“In fact, Bruce Blakeman endorsed her and served as her deputy Supervisor,” a campaign spokesperson said. “Her moderate approach, that prioritizes Long Islanders over politics, is why Rep. Gillen will be re-elected in November.”

Democrats have dominated New York statewide elections since George Pataki left office in 2006. The party lost its final toehold on power in Albany after losing control of the state Senate in 2018. But Republicans continue to maintain competitive races in suburban enclaves, where voters are sensitive to high taxes and concerned about public safety.

“You’re always more likely to lose than win as a Republican in New York, but I think he’s going to be our strongest statewide candidate since George Pataki,” said Republican operative Chapin Fay. “He’s winning in a blue area and he’s sort of MAGA without a lot of the baggage.”

Ensuring success in down-ballot races will be paramount for local Republican leaders with many municipal races switching from low-turnout odd-years to even-numbered years, when more people are expected to vote. That means races for GOP-held seats on some town and village boards and county legislatures may take on a more competitive tilt — threatening Republican power on the local level.

In Nassau County, where Blakeman has served as the top elected official since his 2021 victory, Republicans maintain a robust political operation led by Chair Joe Cairo. Despite widespread GOP losses last month, Nassau County Republican candidates overperformed, Blue Light News reported. Those results underscore the potential strength of Cairo’s voter turnout effort.

“To me, it’s a good strategy,” said Assemblymember Ed Ra, a Nassau County Republican. “It helps when we have a couple of House races that we think are going to be very competitive. For us in the Legislature, we think having a suburban, well-known, well-liked candidate is going to be a positive.”

Long Island is a major prize for any statewide candidate — and the suburbs have been trending Republican this decade with voters activated by concerns over crime and Democratic-backed criminal justice reforms.

New York Democrats acknowledge Blakeman’s strength in Nassau County in particular will present a challenge for down-ballot candidates.

“He will have an organization working for him in Nassau County,” said Jay Jacobs, who serves as both the statewide Democratic Committee chair and the Nassau County Democratic leader. “But I would say that while it certainly will be a factor that we have to take into account in those congressional races and down-ballot races, he likes to tout his great win and his perceived popularity, but we don’t see it that way and our polling doesn’t show it that way.”

Hochul, a Buffalo native, has struggled in the New York City suburbs.

The governor and Jacobs publicly disagreed over supporting Mamdani’s candidacy as her hand-picked party chair moved to distance suburban Democrats from the incoming mayor. She lost Nassau and Suffolk counties to Zeldin three years ago. Hochul was also forced to retool a controversial home building and zoning proposal amid a bipartisan revolt on Long Island.

Hochul on Monday pointed to her efforts addressing crime, housing and jobs on Long Island.

“We will do very well on Long Island,” she predicted. “I’ve spent an enormous amount of time on Long Island.”

Blakeman’s political vulnerabilities may still complicate matters for Republicans. A liberal stance on abortion is unnerving conservative voters the party can’t afford to have stay home. Upstate Republicans, slighted by yet another New York City-area nominee, will have to be won over. Trump’s unpopularity in his native state is also expected to work against Blakeman, who was endorsed by the president over the weekend.

Hochul, too, is expected to be a more formidable incumbent than she was three years ago when she was still a rookie governor and running in a backlash year for her party. The Democratic governor is a formidable fundraiser and she has also worked to build up the state Democrats’ political infrastructure to buttress vulnerable candidates running below her on the ballot.

Her campaign moved swiftly to define Blakeman, who remains unknown to 70 percent of voters, the Siena poll found, saying Blakeman “has gone all-in on Donald Trump’s deeply unpopular MAGA movement.” And Hochul questioned whether he ultimately would be the nominee.

“The Republican Party is in such chaos, I’m not even sure he’s going to end up being the nominee. This changes by the hour,” Hochul told Blue Light News at a news conference. “I’m not going to speculate about the prospective opposition, other than knowing it’s going to be a MAGA, Trump-endorsed Republican.”

Bill Mahoney contributed to this report.

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Congress

‘The original sin:’ Hill Republicans blame White House for slow-walking FISA sales pitch

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A messy GOP battle over a key government spy authority boiled over in the House this week — but the crisis was months in the making.

White House officials and Republican Hill leaders have tried to pressure GOP hard-liners into approving a clean, 18-month extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that President Donald Trump demanded. But amid a GOP rebellion on Capitol Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday afternoon punted a vote on the measure for the second day in a row.

The program expires Monday night. Senators went home for the weekend as Johnson continued to pursue a compromise with the holdouts for an extension as long as three years with reforms, and raced to hold a vote.

Now, the finger-pointing among Republicans is rampant and temperatures are running high.

A band of House ultraconservatives — who have long been concerned that warrantless government surveillance of foreign individuals could sweep up data on Americans — shot down Trump and GOP leaders’ long-held plans for the 18-month extension with no reforms earlier this week.

“A clean extension ain’t going to move on the floor,” Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, one of the head House GOP holdouts, warned earlier this week.

In interviews with more than two dozen Republican lawmakers and aides on Capitol Hill involved in the talks, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely about the contentious policy debate, the consensus is that the White House is largely responsible for the current breakdown as GOP factions snipe and assign blame.

“This is why we shouldn’t wait until the last minute on these things,” one House Republican fumed Thursday. A congressional GOP aide added, “The White House was too late to come to a decision. That was the original sin.”

A senior White House official disputed the characterization from some Hill Republicans that the administration had taken too long to plead their case. They pointed to a briefing in the Situation Room months ago with Republican lawmakers, during which “the president heard arguments on both sides of the issue.”

The official added, “We’ve had multiple briefings from senior officials, both on the House and Senate side, about the desirability of this program. Again, going back months ago.”

Trump told House Intelligence Chair Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) that he wanted a clean extension, without reforms, in February. The president arrived at this position, a second White House official said, after “the administration completed a policy process through the interagency and advised POTUS that a clean extension was the best course and solicited views on length from Blue Light News.”

There was also coordination between the White House and Capitol Hill, according to three people familiar and the senior White House official: Johnson requested the reauthorization run for 18 months, and Trump agreed.

The administration succeeded in convincing Jordan, who had previously pushed for changes to Section 702, to publicly support a clean extension following a White House meeting on the subject.

But ultraconservatives on Capitol Hill were harder to convince, with some House Republicans correctly predicting two months ago they were going to have issues as the vote drew nearer. Trump has forced those hard-liners to cave in recent months on other fights, but the spy powers legislation was one area where members have not been as willing to relent.

While Trump officials made outreach to members at least two months ago, Hill engagement ramped up in the days leading up to the scheduled vote. That has included appeals to lawmakers from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Deputy CIA Director Michael Ellis and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine, according to five people. Ellis has made personal phone calls to members, according to two people familiar with the pressure campaign.

White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, White House Legislative Affairs chief James Braid and other legislative affairs officials have also been calling individual House Republicans and working through negotiation details, according to six other people with direct knowledge of the conversations.

Noticeably absent from this outreach is Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Her office plays a statutory role in overseeing Section 702 and has historically been a key proponent of the powerful spy powers.

Gabbard in early February expressed concerns to Trump about reauthorizing the statute without additional privacy guardrails, as Blue Light News reported earlier Thursday, though her appeal appears to have been unsuccessful.

And while the administration’s position on Section 702 came into focus in February, there were signs earlier in the month that its position had not fully crystallized. Officials meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee at that time refused to divulge the White House’s stance on extending the surveillance power and adding reforms, according to five people with knowledge of the meeting. The exchange frustrated Republicans and Democrats on the panel, who are generally supportive of the surveillance program.

Due to a quirk in the law, the administration will still be able to operate the program for nearly a year even if it is not renewed, and privacy advocates have argued that Monday is a false deadline. But without the law on the books, communications providers like Google and AT&T, which the government tasks to surveil foreign messages, could stop complying with those orders.

But White House officials want an extension codified now, all the same. They have been arguing in conversations with lawmakers that the country is at war and national security is paramount amid threats from Iran. Therefore, they say, hardliners should fall in line to back the clean extension without delay, according to five people involved in the conversations.

“The program is critical for the United States military to listen to the conversations of foreign terrorists abroad while we are engaged in a military operation in Iran. That’s what we’ve been telling individuals, as well as the elevated threat levels around the world, as well as the threat from Mexican drug cartels,” the senior White House official said.

Two groups of House GOP hard-liners, after being summoned by Trump Tuesday night, met with officials at the White House. But some of the Republicans declined the invitation.“I’ve heard everything that the executive has to say on FISA,” Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said in an interview that evening. That meeting, however, marked a shift: Those House Republicans who went to the White House alongside GOP leaders — among them Roy and Reps. Keith Self of Texas, Byron Donalds of Florida, Clay Higgins of Louisiana, Morgan Griffith of Virginia and Warren Davidson of Ohio — took the opportunity to begin negotiations about a framework for a possible agreement around the use of warrants to access certain information.

The discussions included how the White House and GOP leadership needed to make good on a months-old promise to advance legislation that would ban a central bank digital currency. Enough House GOP holdouts late Thursday evening were threatening to still tank the procedural vote to advance the extension if the White House didn’t address the digital currency matter, according to four people with direct knowledge of the matter. “Unless it’s included, there’s enough votes to kill the rule,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said in an interview Thursday afternoon. But other Republicans, White House officials and Senate GOP leadership are warning that attaching the measure directly would tank the FISA bill.

In exchange for making these concessions, GOP leaders and the White House have been pushing for a Section 702 extension that’s longer than 18 months and closer to three years.

The senior White House official also said Thursday the administration has “focused in on potentially having conversations about reforms to the program that we think would strengthen protections for American civil liberties … those conversations are ongoing.”

Jordan, meanwhile, has been helping build support for a clean extension by privately telling some Republicans that, if they can pass this 18-month clean extension now, they could potentially work on warrant reforms later, according to three people with direct knowledge of the discussions. That’s raised some eyebrows internally among House Republicans.

The House delays are leaving barely any time for the Senate to act. Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview Thursday that he’s already started having conversations with his own members about what they would need to clear a FISA extension Monday.

Ultimately, even if GOP leaders strike a deal on changes to the current proposed extension, it could risk support for reauthorization among key Democrats, who Republicans will need to pass the final legislation in a narrowly-divided House. While some House Democrats are expected to help Republicans get the final bill across the finish line — including top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut — Democratic leaders have so far declined to shore up the votes for any fast-tracked process.

“I am deeply skeptical of a straightforward extension,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Thursday, adding he told Johnson a few days ago there was “great Democratic skepticism” on a clean extension.

One Democratic Hill aide said Johnson and Trump did far too little to coordinate their pitch with Democrats, who carried a razor-thin vote to re-up the law in 2024.

“They never came to us,” the aide said.

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GOP, Democrats blast Vought for holding back cash: ‘You don’t have the authority to impound’

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Senators from both parties chided the Trump administration Thursday for continuing to withhold funding Congress has approved, more than a year after the White House first froze billions of dollars for temporary “review.”

During White House budget director Russ Vought’s testimony before the Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) scolded the OMB chief for not sending hundreds of millions of dollars the Trump administration is supposed to give states throughout the year to support community services aimed at reducing poverty.

“Congress has appropriated money, and you don’t have the authority to impound it,” Grassley said about the more than $810 million Congress appropriated this year for the Community Services Block Grant program.

That program helps states fund anti-poverty services such as transportation, education and nutrition assistance that serve more than 9 million people each year.

Grassley told Vought that lawmakers “are not getting any answers” as to why the Trump administration hasn’t sent states their quarterly funding from the program. “I want those quarterly allotments released,” Grassley said.

While Vought did not directly address Grassley’s comments, he said at a different point during the hearing that “we have not impounded a single thing.”

Other senators, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), lamented federal dollars being withheld for the fund that provides capital to small banks and credit unions in underserved areas. For months lawmakers from both parties have pushed back against Trump’s plans to eliminate that program, the Treasury Department’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund.

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Congress

FISA extension vote delayed

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House GOP leaders are pushing back the planned 3:15 p.m. procedural vote related to the bill extending a key spy power due to expire in four days.

Leaders are continuing to negotiate with hard-liners to come up with a deal that can pass the chamber.

No new time has been set for the rule vote.

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