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Republicans inch closer to formally locking up House majority

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There are more than a dozen House contests — and a Senate race — still uncalled by the Associated Press, but Republicans are inching ever closer to officially retaining the House majority, as western states continue to slowly tally up their ballots.

Arizona Senate: Several days of strong vote counting numbers have put Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on the precipice of holding this Senate seat for his party, even as President-elect Donald Trump carried the state by nearly six percentage points. Gallego’s lead over GOP nominee Kari Lake was nearly 67,000 votes — or more than two percentage points — following a Sunday evening drop from Maricopa County. Advantage Gallego. 

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania Senate: While the Associated Press has called the Keystone State race for the GOP, Republicans are furious that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has withheld an orientation invite to Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (R-Pa.). Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has refused to concede the race, citing tens of thousands of outstanding ballots. McCormick currently leads Casey by more than 39,000 votes in the commonwealth.

Battle for the House: There are 18 races technically uncalled by the AP, but here’s where to focus your attention to understand who will control the House.

  • Colorado’s 8th: Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) conceded defeat on Sunday after several batches of ballots broke in favor of GOP challenger Gabe Evans, though the race has yet to be technically called. The expected loss further dents Democrats’ majority hopes.
  • Alaska’s at-large: Incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) trails by more than 10,000 votes with around 80 percent of the estimated total now counted. Rural ballots are expected to favor her, but the math to catch GOP challenger Nick Begich is daunting. 
  • Arizona’s 6th: Several favorable ballot drops over the weekend put incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) again in the lead for this swingy seat in southern Arizona. Democrat Kirsten Engel trails by around 2,000 votes with about 83 percent counted. 
  • California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R) leads by more than 10,000 votes — and more than seven percentage points — over challenger Democrat Rudy Salas with around 77 percent of the vote now in. 
  • California’s 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) expanded his lead over Democratic challenger Will Rollins on Sunday to nearly 7,900 votes — or more than 2.8 percentage points. 
  • California’s 13rd: Democratic challenger Adam Gray has been eating into GOP Rep. John Duarte’s initial lead as more ballots are counted. An estimated 61 percent of votes are in, with Duarte currently holding 3,261 vote advantage. 
  • California’s 45th: Several recent drops have been beneficial to Democratic challenger Derek Tran, who now trails GOP Rep. Michelle Steel by 6,128 votes. Around 80 percent of the vote is counted, so gear up for a potential photo finish. 
  • California’s 47th: Democrats got much-needed good news in their quest to hold Rep. Katie Porter’s (D) open seat when Democrat Dave Min surged into the lead over the weekend, opening a 2,713 vote lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh. 
  • California’s 27th: In the years-long Democratic quest to topple Rep. Mike Garcia (R) from his Los Angeles-based district, challenger George Whitesides took the lead over the weekend and now boasts a lead of 4,730 votes. Later batches of votes have favored Democrats.

And a big call: Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) won reelection in Arizona’s 1st District, according to a late Sunday race call from the AP. It’s a major hold for Republicans.

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Some Republicans aren’t as ready as Trump to embrace Iraq’s new leader

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A number of congressional Republicans are worried Iraq’s new leader won’t be the partner the U.S. needs in an increasingly turbulent Middle East.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi met with both President Donald Trump and a slew of lawmakers last week in Washington — his first international trip since taking office. But those on Blue Light News came away from the visit with more skepticism and reservations than Trump, who praised al-Zaidi’s leadership in their meeting.

“Iraqi leaders have fooled us in the past and so far, I have no reason to believe this one will be different,” Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) said. “I am afraid that the so-called militia disarmament that the prime minister keeps promising will simply be Iran-backed militia members switching jerseys from terrorist uniforms to the Iraqi government.”

Wilson, a prominent advocate for severing Iranian ties with Iraq, said he supports the president’s effort to strengthen the relationship with Baghdad, but argues Iraq’s promises must be met with caution.

The success of Iraq’s new prime minister matters greatly to Washington. Amid the Iran war, the White House has pushed to bridge relations with another Gulf state where ties have long been strained. But before al-Zaidi can become the ally the U.S. hopes for, he needs to address the threat posed by Iran-backed militias, whose attacks have persisted in his country during the war.

Al-Zaidi is saying — and doing — a number of things that are winning him plaudits in Washington.

During his visit, al-Zaidi said his government will honor the Sept. 30 deadline Iraq has set to disarm all Iran-backed and non-state armed groups. And under al-Zaidi, there have been some early signs of progress. The leaders of three major militia groups in the region have already pledged that they will disarm.

But on the ground, the picture remains more complicated. Since the start of the Iran war, many other militias have escalated their attacks, launching strikes targeting U.S. diplomatic and military sites, as well as other public infrastructure in Baghdad.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he didn’t get the answers he needed from al-Zaidi during his visit last week.

“ To me personally, it was disappointing. He didn’t answer any questions, and I just didn’t get much from it,” Burchett said. He added he hopes that al-Zaidi can meet the Sept. 30 deadline to disarm Iraq’s militias, but acknowledged the steep challenge ahead. “It’ll be difficult,” Burchett said. “I sure hope he can.”

It doesn’t help al-Zaidi’s case that he attended the funeral procession of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this month, fueling concerns among some U.S. lawmakers of Baghdad’s continued allegiance with Tehran.

“This does not inspire confidence in Iraqi leaders,” Wilson said, referring to al-Zaidi’s attendance at the funeral procession.

The episode shows the delicate balancing act al-Zaidi faces as he seeks to maintain close ties with both Washington and Tehran. But he also has a balancing act in Washington.

Even lawmakers who left the meeting encouraged by the prime minister’s remarks noted major obstacles ahead.

Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Iran-backed militias in Iraq are “always a concern” and noted that al-Zaidi has significant “history to overcome” to come to terms with Washington.

When asked to comment on the lawmakers’ concerns, a White House spokesperson referred to Trump’s previous comments on al-Zaidi.

“This man is going to be a great leader in the Middle East, beyond Iraq. His influence is going to spread all throughout the Middle East,” Trump said during their meeting last week.

Iraq’s embassy in Washington didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Victoria Taylor, an Iraq analyst at the Atlantic Council, said a key mission for al-Zaidi’s visit was to charm Trump, “and I think he can really say the mission accomplished there.”

“Where the visit was less successful was really with other elements of Washington, including on Blue Light News, where understandably many congressmen are eager to really see more action and more details before they’re willing to give him the kind of effusive stamp of approval that he received from the Trump team.”

Trump’s support for al-Zaidi, a 40-year-old banker with no prior political experience, has been consistent. The president threw his support behind al-Zaidi after the country’s parliamentary elections last year, even threatening to cut off U.S. support to Iraq if another candidate was elected.

Al-Zaidi was seen as a consensus candidate and a more neutral pick amid Iraq’s political factions. He also used his trip to advance Baghdad’s economic agenda, leading the signing of several memorandums of understanding as Iraq looks for alternative export routes and ways to relieve the economic impact of disruptions to its oil business through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack has made it clear that the administration is hoping to help al-Zaidi in these endeavors.

“What you’re going to find today is this young leader, who we need support with your thoughts, with your confidence, with your businesses, has the ability to change the fabric of the 23-year unbelievable adventure that we have had with Iraq,” Barrack said during the U.S.-Iraq Business Summit on Friday.

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Lisa Murkowski is undecided on Blanche’s confirmation. Her state is getting a windfall from DOJ.

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The Justice Department has been lavishing nine-figure policy wins on Alaska — and openly touting what a “huge” time it’s been for the state — as attorney general nominee Todd Blanche is scrambling to lock down support for his confirmation from its senior senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski.

A July 7 settlementover the federal government’s unfinished work on the port of Alaska resulted in a $180 million payout to Anchorage — an announcementBlanche, who is currently the acting attorney general, made personally during a two-day visit. The Justice Department shared news around the same time it had dropped Biden-era lawsuits related to Alaska’s energy production.

Then on Tuesday, the administration inked a $400 million settlementwith a group that administers health care programs for American Indians and Alaska natives.

“The wins keep coming for the American people in Alaska,” Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward declared last week, after announcing yet another win for the state: a $6.1 million award to tribal governments to combat violent crime.

Those developments all coincide with Blanche’s effort to court Republican senators to vote for his nomination as he deals with blowback over the botched release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, which he oversaw as deputy attorney general, followed by the launch of a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization fund” — which he has since said is dead.

President Donald Trump formally nominated Blanche for the top job at the Justice Department on June 8, and Blanche has been meeting with senators ever since. Those meetings have included at least two with Murkowski — one in June and one earlier this week.

Right before Blanche’s confirmation hearing last week, Murkowski said she was hopeful for “specific follow-ups” from the nominee. She noted that she had some concerns about Blanche serving previously as Trump’s personal attorney and that she was interested to hear how Blanche’s visit to Alaska went.

“So I’ve got some follow-ons that I want to visit with him about. He was able to get out to one of our smaller, isolated … villages where there’s very limited public safety. [I] want to gain his impressions,” Murkowski told reporters at the time.

She acknowledged Tuesday that she was continuing to have conversations with Blanche. But the moderate lawmaker and frequent Trump critic did not tip her hand about how she might vote — a warning sign for GOP leaders who currently can’t afford more than two defections on their side of the aisle, assuming all Democrats vote “no.”

In the Senate Judiciary Committee, just a single GOP vote against Blanche would stop him from advancing to the floor if every Democrat on the panel opposes him. And right now there are two Republican senators — John Cornyn of Texas and Thom Tills of North Carolina — who have not committed to voting ‘yes.”

Blanche has already shown a willingness to jump through hoops to shore up support for his confirmation. Shortly after Tillis said he wouldn’t vote for Blanche until he met with Epstein’s victims face-to-face, the acting attorney general followed through.

He has also been working draft legislative language declaring the “anti-weaponization fund” officially dead in a bid to satisfy Tillis as well as Cornyn, who both said they need this guarantee in writing.

While Justice Department officials have been eager to tout the big Alaska policy breakthroughs, they haven’t explicitly disclosed any connection to wooing Murkowski’s vote. They also note that their work on Alaskan priorities has stretched back well before Blanche’s nomination, that senior DOJ officials frequently travel to offices around the country and that the Alaska trip had been scheduled earlier and then rebooked for July.

“The Department has been litigating these cases for years,” a DOJ spokesperson said in a statement. “Unlike under the Biden administration, this Department will always choose results over costly and inefficient litigation. The Acting Attorney General enjoyed his trip to Alaska earlier this month where he learned about the unique challenges facing those communities.”

In a statement Wednesday, Murkowski’s spokesperson, Joe Plesha, said that if Blanche is reported out of the Judiciary Committee, the senator “will evaluate [him] in the same way she evaluates every nominee: by reviewing his hearing and determining whether he has the appropriate qualifications, experience, temperament, and independence necessary for this important role.”

Murkowski is one of the few genuine swing votes in the Senate with a history of leveraging her vote across presidencies to win big time policy concessions and victories for her constituents.

In 2023, she was instrumental in pushing the Biden administration to move forward with a massive ConocoPhillips enterprise in Alaska estimated to produce 180,000 barrels of oil a day and generate billions in new revenue to the state. Murkowski attributed the administration’s concession to her yearslong strategy of breaking with her party to vote for key Biden nominees and legislative priorities.

As recently as last year, she was persuaded to vote for the GOP’s massive tax and spending megabill and its deep cuts to social safety net programs in part because the final package mandated new lease sales for drilling across the state and extra funding for Alaska’s rural hospitals.

And when she was helping hold up an appropriations bill in committee in a dispute over the location of FBI headquarters, one Republican senator — granted anonymity to speak candidly — joked they had considered offering an amendment to move the agency’s main building to Alaska to see if that got her to cooperate.

Plesha, in his statement, said Murkowski “appreciates Mr. Blanche’s recent trip to Alaska and his willingness to take up her request to travel beyond the road system to understand the public safety challenges that rural communities face. She also welcomes recent settlements with the Department of Justice to resolve longstanding federal deficiencies, come into compliance with Supreme Court precedent, and improve Alaskans’ quality of life.”

“These actions would all be appropriate no matter who is Attorney General,” Plesha added.

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.

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Senate Commerce pushes AI markup plan to August

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Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is postponing his highly anticipated artificial intelligence and kids online safety markup, with a tentative plan to hold it the week of Aug. 3, a committee aide confirmed Wednesday.

Cruz had earlier been eyeing July 29 for the markup. Cruz said earlier Wednesday the markup schedule was “still in flux” as the agenda comes together. In recent weeks, he has been soliciting input from committee members on what legislation should be included.

Republican senators are rushing to advance AI legislation before the August recess. Per Senate rules, an advisory with the list of bills has to be published a week in advance.

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