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Republicans inch closer to formally locking up House majority

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There are more than a dozen House contests — and a Senate race — still uncalled by the Associated Press, but Republicans are inching ever closer to officially retaining the House majority, as western states continue to slowly tally up their ballots.

Arizona Senate: Several days of strong vote counting numbers have put Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) on the precipice of holding this Senate seat for his party, even as President-elect Donald Trump carried the state by nearly six percentage points. Gallego’s lead over GOP nominee Kari Lake was nearly 67,000 votes — or more than two percentage points — following a Sunday evening drop from Maricopa County. Advantage Gallego. 

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania Senate: While the Associated Press has called the Keystone State race for the GOP, Republicans are furious that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has withheld an orientation invite to Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (R-Pa.). Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has refused to concede the race, citing tens of thousands of outstanding ballots. McCormick currently leads Casey by more than 39,000 votes in the commonwealth.

Battle for the House: There are 18 races technically uncalled by the AP, but here’s where to focus your attention to understand who will control the House.

  • Colorado’s 8th: Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) conceded defeat on Sunday after several batches of ballots broke in favor of GOP challenger Gabe Evans, though the race has yet to be technically called. The expected loss further dents Democrats’ majority hopes.
  • Alaska’s at-large: Incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D) trails by more than 10,000 votes with around 80 percent of the estimated total now counted. Rural ballots are expected to favor her, but the math to catch GOP challenger Nick Begich is daunting. 
  • Arizona’s 6th: Several favorable ballot drops over the weekend put incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) again in the lead for this swingy seat in southern Arizona. Democrat Kirsten Engel trails by around 2,000 votes with about 83 percent counted. 
  • California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R) leads by more than 10,000 votes — and more than seven percentage points — over challenger Democrat Rudy Salas with around 77 percent of the vote now in. 
  • California’s 41st: Longtime incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) expanded his lead over Democratic challenger Will Rollins on Sunday to nearly 7,900 votes — or more than 2.8 percentage points. 
  • California’s 13rd: Democratic challenger Adam Gray has been eating into GOP Rep. John Duarte’s initial lead as more ballots are counted. An estimated 61 percent of votes are in, with Duarte currently holding 3,261 vote advantage. 
  • California’s 45th: Several recent drops have been beneficial to Democratic challenger Derek Tran, who now trails GOP Rep. Michelle Steel by 6,128 votes. Around 80 percent of the vote is counted, so gear up for a potential photo finish. 
  • California’s 47th: Democrats got much-needed good news in their quest to hold Rep. Katie Porter’s (D) open seat when Democrat Dave Min surged into the lead over the weekend, opening a 2,713 vote lead over GOP nominee Scott Baugh. 
  • California’s 27th: In the years-long Democratic quest to topple Rep. Mike Garcia (R) from his Los Angeles-based district, challenger George Whitesides took the lead over the weekend and now boasts a lead of 4,730 votes. Later batches of votes have favored Democrats.

And a big call: Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) won reelection in Arizona’s 1st District, according to a late Sunday race call from the AP. It’s a major hold for Republicans.

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Congress

Democrat Adam Gray flips California swing seat blue

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Democrat Adam Gray has flipped one of his party’s highest-priority seats in California’s Central Valley, booting Republican Rep. John Duarte from office in the last House race in the country to be called.

Gray, a former state legislator, previously lost to Duarte in 2022 by a margin of 564 votes. This year, his party managed to turn out enough supporters to deal a major blow to the GOP.

Duarte told Blue Light News on Tuesday that he had conceded the race.

Democratic flips of seats held by California GOP Reps. Duarte, Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel have cut into Republicans’ narrow House majority, as will — for the near term — the expected GOP departures of Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. For the time being, Republicans hold 220 seats and Democrats 215.

Democrats poured millions into flipping key swing regions like the Central Valley, far outspending Republican incumbents like Duarte.

Mia McCarthy contributed to this story.

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AOC may run for Oversight job

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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is weighing a bid for the top Democratic position on the Oversight Committee, she told reporters Tuesday.

“I’m interested,” she said in comments confirmed by a spokesperson.

The outspoken progressive could run for the spot if it’s vacated by Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who’s mounting a challenge against Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) for the top Democratic position on the Judiciary Committee. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who had run against Raskin for the job last Congress, declared his bid Tuesday. And Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) could also be in the mix.

It’s the latest salvo in House Democrats’ generational battle over the leadership of congressional committees.

Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), the top Democrat on the Agriculture committee — who has been dogged by questions about his health and ability to lead the panel’s Democrats — faces a strong challenge from Reps. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.). And Rep. Jared Huffman is running to succeed Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who announced Monday he wouldn’t run again to lead the panel’s Democrats.

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Trump’s DEA nominee withdraws

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President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration abruptly withdrew his name from consideration on Tuesday just days after being chosen.

Chad Chronister said in a post on X that he made the decision “as the gravity of this very important responsibility set in,” but didn’t cite a reason for his withdrawal other than concluding he wanted to continue in his current role as a sheriff in Florida.

“There is more work to be done for the citizens of Hillsborough County and a lot of initiatives I am committed to fulfilling,” he said. “I sincerely appreciate the nomination, outpouring of support by the American people, and look forward to continuing my service as Sheriff of Hillsborough County.”

Chronister was initially appointed to his job as county sheriff by then-Florida Gov. Rick Scott in 2017 before successfully running for election to the role. He also overlapped in the office with Pam Bondi, Trump’s pick for attorney general, when she was a state prosecutor. Trump said in a post on Truth Social Saturday, when he announced his selection, that Chronister would “secure the Border, stop the flow of Fentanyl, and other Illegal Drugs, across the Southern Border, and SAVE LIVES.”

Chronister drew criticism from some conservatives, including Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), over his actions during the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, his office arrested a Tampa pastor for violating quarantine orders to hold services. Charges against the pastor were ultimately dropped.

“I’m going to call ‘em like I see ’em. Trump’s nominee for head of DEA should be disqualified for ordering the arrest a pastor who defied COVID lockdowns,” Massie, a member of the House Judiciary and House Rules Committees, posted on X on Sunday.

Chronister’s crime fighting approach as sheriff of a purple county also hasn’t necessarily fallen in line with conservative orthodoxy.

“When I stepped into my role as Hillsborough County Sheriff, I knew that as a law enforcement agency, we could not arrest our way out of problems like drug addiction and mental health issues in our community,” Chronister said in 2021. “We had to take a holistic approach in order to reduce recidivism.”

But Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’d been a vocal critic of Covid lockdowns, publicly backed Chronister’s nomination. He specifically cited a decision he made in 2022, when Chronister stood beside him as he ousted a left-leaning prosecutor, Andrew Warren.

Asked for comment about Chronister’s withdrawal, Trump transition spokesperson Brian Hughes said the sheriff’s statement spoke for itself.

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