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Republicans embrace hardball moves as shutdown enters Week 3

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Republicans are ratcheting up pressure on Democrats on multiple fronts as the government shutdown enters a third workweek, hoping the hardball moves can finally force a reckoning as U.S. troops face a first-ever missed paycheck.

The GOP fear is that if the military pay deadline passes without action, there will be little to stop the shutdown from continuing for several more weeks at least. Some Republicans have privately warned the White House that taking unilateral action to pay servicemembers would deprive the party of a key lever to make Democrats feel overwhelming consequences for their refusal to act on a House-passed spending bill.

As Washington inched closer to the Wednesday pay date, Republicans on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue sprang into action: At the White House, budget director Russ Vought announced “substantial” layoffs Friday, finally making good on two weeks of threats.

On Capitol Hill, Senate Republicans said they would no longer allow Democrats to keep calling up their own stopgap spending bill funding the government through the end of October, forcing votes only on the GOP-led alternative. Speaker Mike Johnson is continuing to keep the House out of session this week, and he argues Democrats will bear the consequences of federal workers and troops missing pay.

“It’s a compelling reason to open the damn government,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), adding that “the troop deadline is the issue — if anything becomes an inflection point, it’s that.”

The GOP effort to force Democrats to heel comes as talks between the top four congressional leaders remain virtually nonexistent. And there’s no sign that rank-and-file Senate Democrats — just five of whom could quickly end the shutdown — are ready to flip ahead of another scheduled vote on the House-passed stopgap Tuesday night.

Rather than military pay, Democrats are looking at another day they believe will be the ultimate pressure point: the Nov. 1 launch of open enrollment for Affordable Care Act insurance plans. The party has sought to make the pending expiration of premium tax credits a central issue in the standoff, demanding Republicans cut a deal to extend them.

“The closer to Nov. 1, a lot of these elected officials are going to start hearing from their constituents,” said Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) when asked what he thinks will break the impasse.

The fear that the shutdown is pitting the unstoppable force of Democratic anger at President Donald Trump versus the immovable object of GOP resolve not to flinch has not yet generated any substantive bipartisan negotiations.

While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries believe the only way out of the shutdown is for their GOP counterparts and Trump to talk to them, Republicans are making it clear that they don’t see the point right now and are counting on rank-and-file Democrats to pressure their own party brass.

“I think Leader Schumer has checked out,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Friday, adding that Republicans were looking for “bold, courageous Democrats with a backbone.”

In addition to the military pay deadline, lawmakers are keeping a close eye on federal aviation as another potential area that could force Congress into a detente. Thune mentioned the shutdown’s impacts on air travel, saying it was one way senators “might start to feel that a little bit personally.” Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, separately noted last week how air traffic controllers were a driving factor in the last shutdown.

But if the Trump administration thought Friday’s firings of several thousand federal workers would break the impasse, it instead appears to have only stiffened Hill Democrats’ spines to keep the shutdown going.

“We will not be threatened and intimidated by the likes of Russ Vought,” purple-district Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) told reporters Friday.

Jeffries is calling House Democrats back to Washington for a Tuesday evening caucus meeting, and Democratic lawmakers are expected to take part in more public appearances this week even as the House stays out of session. He and Schumer have largely managed to keep their caucuses unified on the demand for a bipartisan negotiation — even though there are already clear signs of fissures between the two Democratic leaders over what would be an acceptable end to the shutdown.

“The American people want it, they are seeing how devastating this is, and they are putting a lot of pressure on their Republican congressmen and senators,” Schumer said when asked why he believes Republicans will change their minds on health care, insisting that GOP senators were “feeling the heat.”

Democrats are also trying to drive a wedge between GOP leaders and the White House. Schumer has pointed to Johnson, who is wary of extending the insurance subsidies, as the real roadblock. And Durbin, asked about Thune, noted he had known and worked with the genial South Dakotan for years but “he is at the mercy of a president who is mercurial.”

Republican leaders, however, have shown no signs they will back down from their view that any deal on extending the expiring tax credits can’t be forged while the government is closed down. Instead, they are trying to peel off another five Senate Democrats by dangling an offer to talk once the shutdown is over.

“There are some Democrats who I think are reasonable enough to know that this is not a sustainable position for them,” Thune said.

The bipartisan talks among the Senate rank-and-file are ongoing but have so far failed to bear fruit. Republican leaders floated an offer to potentially hold a vote on extending the subsidies, but Democrats involved in the talks said the details were too fuzzy to agree. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is separately floating a “six-point plan” to Democrats, which would involve a similar commitment on health care plus moving full-year government funding bills.

Even though the group hasn’t yet come up with a deal, aides believe the rapid launching of trial balloons late last week was a good sign. Eventually, they reckon, one of them will take flight and get Congress out of the shutdown.

But the other risk, Republicans are starting to warn, is that the standoff could go on for so long they might need to extend the window for reaching a broader deal on federal spending and the insurance subsidies.

The House-approved bill expires on Nov. 21, just before Thanksgiving. Now some in the GOP are floating dates just before Christmas, and top party leaders are discussing that possibility. Democrats, meanwhile, want a shorter window for action — before the Nov. 1 open enrollment date.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin, the Oklahoma Republican whom White House officials have tapped to coordinate informal talks with Democrats, said he has floated the later, pre-Christmas deadline in hopes of breaking something loose.

“You start with A, B, C, and you probably end up at D,” Mullin said. “And I think right now we’re probably somewhere around B.”

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Congress

Joe Wilson hospitalized

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Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) was hospitalized after falling in his home on Wednesday evening.

Wilson’s office said on Thursday that the 78-year-old is fine and working remotely.

“Last evening, Congressman Wilson slipped in the bathroom of his residence in Washington and cut his head,” David Snider, a spokesperson for Wilson, said in a statement. “He received stitches, is fine, and working remotely.”

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‘You lose your credibility’: Democrats warn against turning a blind eye to a colleague’s misconduct

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House Democrats will soon have to choose between protecting an embattled colleague or insulating themselves from politically damaging accusations of hypocrisy.

The House Ethics Committee will begin the process Thursday of determining whether Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick warrants punishment as extreme as expulsion over accusations that she stole millions in FEMA funds and committed various campaign finance infractions.

The bipartisan panel that typically operates in secret is holding a public “trial” — the first in nearly 16 years — that will litigate those allegations as the third-term Florida Democrat faces federal criminal charges in her home state. Cherfilus-McCormick has maintained her innocence, saying “the full facts will make clear I did nothing wrong.”

House Democratic leaders have so far taken a hands-off approach to the saga.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his office say that Cherfilus-McCormick is “entitled to her day in court and the presumption of innocence,” and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California told reporters Wednesday he also would not “prejudge any outcome” of the Ethics Committee’s proceedings.

But after Democrats agitated for the removal of serial fraudster Rep. George Santos of New York ahead of a full Ethics process in 2023, the party could be vulnerable to political attacks if it doesn’t now police a credibly accused embezzler in its own midst.

“If they give us conclusions that this actually happened, and there’s no question of doubt as to the fact that laws were broken, then our colleague will have to face the consequences of that — it’s plain and simple,” said Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) in an interview.

“You lose your credibility if you’re applying a different set of laws and a different standard to people of the other party,” he said. “I mean, how could we ever justify anything we do if we only apply that to Republicans, and we don’t follow the law?”

Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) said her party has to be mindful of how voters perceive corruption in Washington.

“I think there’s pressure on all of us in elected office right now,” she said in an interview. “Neither party is trusted by the public that we’re going to fight corruption. … I know from talking with my own constituents that this is a real issue for both parties, not just Republicans.”

These warnings come as Democrats have repeatedly over the past several months declined to punish their own members as they faced allegations of wrongdoing. They restored Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas to his post as the senior Democrat on the Homeland Security Appropriations subcommittee after he received a pardon by President Donald Trump; he had taken a leave of absence while being scrutinized for allegations of bribery.

Most looked the other way when retiring Rep. Chuy García of Illinois boxed out other potential successors and orchestrated his chief of staff’s ascension to succeed him. And they helped Del. Stacey Plaskett of the Virgin Islands dodge a Republican-led censure attempt following revelations she had texted convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein during an Oversight Committee hearing.

Now they’ll have to decide what to do about Cherfilus-McCormick.

A House Ethics subcommittee will meet Thursday afternoon to consider a motion for summary judgment — in effect, whether or not to declare her guilty. If it does, the full panel will schedule a hearing for a later date to determine what punishment to recommend, and the House will then vote to execute it.

Members of the subcommittee could suggest something as minor, though embarrassing, as a reprimand or censure. It could also call for her expulsion. House GOP leaders believe they will have the requisite two-thirds majority to expel Cherfilus-McCormick and plan to force such a vote, according to three people granted anonymity to speak candidly about top House Republicans’ plans. But leaders are waiting to see what the panel recommends at the conclusion of the trial.

In a statement Wednesday, Cherfilus-McCormick said she was “innocent” and a “fighter,” and she criticized the Ethics Committee for proceeding with the trial despite her request for a delay that would give “my legal team reasonable time to prepare.” The committee already delayed the trial once after Cherfilus-McCormick lost her representation.

“I urge the Committee to follow its own precedents and uphold fairness and not allow this process to be driven by politics or numbers,” she said.

Santos is the most recent member of Congress to be expelled for using campaign donations for personal expenses — an action his colleagues took after the Ethics Committee issued a report substantiating the claims against him but before it could hold a trial and recommend punishment.

“Some of my Republican colleagues thought it was premature. They thought that he should have gotten a trial before we expelled him,” said Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), who pushed for Santos’ removal from office. “I always said that he admitted to the very thing we were accusing him of was enough process — enough due process — to throw him out.”

Cherfilus-McCormick, in contrast, is pleading not guilty — which LaLota suggested could give Democrats some political cover to give her the benefit of the doubt. He added, however, “The accusations are totally gross. Kind of looks like she did it.”

The last time the House Ethics Committee held a formal trial was in 2010 for the late-Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), who was ultimately censured for a vast range of violations, including tax evasion.

Ethics Committee Chair Michael Guest (R-Miss.) said his panel has been reviewing the Rangel proceedings as a guide for how to approach the Cherfilus-McCormick trial, saying the committee intends to “follow the map that has been laid out in the previous hearings.”

But the Rangel episode was also a deeply emotional and uncomfortable situation for many of the beloved veteran lawmaker’s peers, with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), who was the chair of the Ethics Committee at that time, recalling in an interview that it was “a very depressing experience.”

Some House Democrats are now struggling with the uncomfortable task of having to potentially render career-ending judgment on a colleague.

“She’s a dear friend,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.). “I am waiting, I think, like everyone else, to see how all of this plays out in court. That’s something that we all have the benefit of getting. I think you are innocent until proven guilty.”

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

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Congress

Capitol agenda: DHS despair takes hold on Blue Light News

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The vibes are bad.

An overwhelming sense of frustration and despair is taking hold on Capitol Hill as lawmakers struggle to reach a deal on DHS funding before a two-week recess begins Friday.

The funding framework Republican senators sketched out with President Donald Trump Monday appears to be on life support and there’s no backup agreement. Democrats say Republicans suddenly gave up this week on negotiating new rules for immigration enforcement agents. Trump is showing little interest in driving a deal, blaming Democrats for backing out of agreements with Republicans.

“Because they don’t want to settle,” Trump said at Wednesday night’s NRCC dinner. “They want chaos.”

Bipartisan talks continued late Wednesday night, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune is leaving the door open to keeping senators in Washington into or through the recess. But Republicans privately expect to have attendance issues after several colleagues just skipped out on a rare weekend session to work through the SAVE America Act.

“I just want to go home,” said one GOP senator granted anonymity to vent.

What else we’re watching: 

— Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick hearing: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) will appear before House Ethics Thursday for a rare public “trial” over financial fraud charges. House Democratic leaders are steering clear of condemnation as she faces a likely expulsion vote.

Cherfilus-McCormick faces accusations that she stole millions in FEMA funds and committed various campaign finance infractions. She has maintained her innocence, saying “the full facts will make clear I did nothing wrong.”

House GOP leaders believe they will have the requisite two-thirds majority to expel her and plan to force a vote. But leaders are waiting to see what the panel recommends at the conclusion of the trial.

— Judiciary takes up data center bill: The House Judiciary Committee will vote Thursday on a proposal aimed at easing the legal landscape for AI data centers.

Under Rep. Michael Baumgartner’s (R-Wash.) Protect American AI Act, data center permits would remain in place even when environmental reviews for the projects are challenged by litigation. It’s one of the first congressional proposals on data centers to receive a committee vote, and it comes as Trump pushes Congress to ease AI regulations.

Jordain Carney, Katherine Tully-McManus, Jennifer Scholtes, Hailey Fuchs, Riley Rogerson and Amelia Davidson contributed to this report.

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