Politics
Portugal plays bigger than its size — in both politics and soccer
Despite Cristiano Ronaldo’s travails, Portugal heads into tonight’s World Cup knockout match against Croatia as a strong contender to win this year’s tournament. Victory in Toronto tonight would keep it on track for the latter stages — and reinforce a national brand that has consolidated the Atlantic country as a powerhouse far beyond the soccer field.
Portugal is home to just over 10 million people and has a modest economic footprint, but the small European nation has a remarkable track record when it comes to placing its candidates in top posts around the world.
Within the EU, Portugal stands out as having had more of its candidates occupy top institutional posts than any of the bloc’s other member countries. Since 1986, Portuguese citizens have served as president of the European Commission, the Court of Auditors, the Eurogroup, the Committee of the Regions — and former Prime Minister António Costa currently presides over the European Council. There has also been a Portuguese EU ombudsman, a vice president of the European Central Bank and nine vice presidents of the European Parliament.
Beyond the bloc, former Prime Minister António Guterres currently serves as United Nations secretary-general. And just last month the country scored a fresh diplomatic victory by beating out the larger, wealthier and more globally influential Germany to secure one of the vacant, nonpermanent seats on the U.N. Security Council.
According to former Portuguese Secretary of State for Internationalization Bernardo Ivo Cruz, Lisbon’s decision to go after top jobs on the global stage is an existential matter.
“After democracy was restored following the 1974 Carnation Revolution, we realized that our survival as a country depended on multilateralism: we’re too small to guarantee our strategic interests, and those of our citizens, on our own,” he said. “To do that, we needed to guarantee the world remained a place governed by the rule of law.”
The former diplomat said Portugal had worked hard to establish itself as a fair player that is capable of speaking with everyone on equal terms. “Being a small country is actually an advantage, because no one is afraid of us, and that makes us nonthreatening interlocutors,” he noted.
Thanks to its nearly 900-year history, Portugal has long-standing relationships with nearly every other nation. The bonds are especially strong with Portuguese-speaking former colonies like Brazil, Macau and Cape Verde, parts of the world with which Lisbon has worked to forge ties based on equal terms. And those good vibes among allies have been instrumental in having Portuguese candidates confirmed to posts where neutrality and a respect for the rules of diplomacy are paramount.
“The candidates that secure these top posts aren’t supposed to unfairly benefit their home countries,” Cruz noted. “But they benefit Portugal in a broad sense because they defend that multilateralism that benefits all countries, including our own.”
The matter, he added, was taken so seriously in Portugal that the country’s politicians had a habit of backing their candidates for international posts no matter what their politics might be.
“Our stance is that we never mix up internal drama with things happening beyond our borders,” he said. “You may hate someone in Lisbon, but the moment they’re up for an important post it becomes a matter of defending the interests of the state, and personal issues have no relevance there.”
Beyond political institutions like the U.N. or the European Council, Cruz said Portugal had a vested interest in the kind of soft diplomacy that plays out in sporting events like the World Cup.
“Evidently, if we end up winning this match, it only reinforces our country’s international prestige, and is a cause for celebration,” But, he added, “whatever happens, I think this edition of the World Cup is turning out to be a success for everyone.”
“Rather than hooliganism, what we’ve seen are the Scots marching through U.S. cities with their bagpipes and kilts, the Norwegians delighting American spectators with their rowing rituals,” he noted. “At a moment of such immense global tension, we all win by having this competition be defined by friendly celebration.”
Indeed, in much the same way that the small European nation is a force to be reckoned with when it comes to football, it also punches far above its weight in terms of broad international influence.
Politics
Trump eyes an October campaign rally — in Alabama
President Donald Trump is tentatively set to visit Alabama for a political rally next week, a curious move in a deep-red state as his party fights for control of Congress in several battlegrounds.
The event is penciled in for Oct. 2 in Mobile, but the plans have not yet been finalized and are subject to change, according to two people with direct knowledge of the preparations who were granted anonymity to disclose private planning.
An October rally in Alabama would be a somewhat confounding decision for the president. The GOP has found itself having to play defense in their own territory recently, with Democratic candidates are seriously competing for Senate seats in normally red states like Alaska and Texas. But Alabama has not been considered a state where Democrats have any real shot at winning any statewide office.
Spokespeople for the White House and Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The rally could help shore up support for state Rep. Rhett Marques, who is locked in a somewhat competitive race with Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures. Marques is still seen to have the advantage after the Supreme Court allowed the state to use a House map that reconfigured Figures’ majority-Black district earlier this year. Mobile, though, is outside of that district.
Marques’ campaign and Figures’ campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
A foray into Alabama would not be the first time that the president has tried to shore up support in a solidly Republican state this cycle — he rallied last month in South Carolina for Sen. Darline Graham during her primary runoff — but as the general election season has begun he has also started to visit battleground states. Last week, he rallied alongside GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley in North Carolina.
Trump’s potential campaign visit would follow Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy’s announcement last week that the Trump administration has granted a $2.5 billion loan to the Alabama Toll Road, Bridge, and Tunnel Authority. That money will fund the construction of the Mobile River Bridge — the largest infrastructure project in the state’s history. The president is also fond of GOP Rep. Barry Moore, who is running for Senate in the state. Another close ally, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, is the Republican nominee for governor. He’s running against Democratic former Sen. Doug Jones, who he unseated in 2020.
Politics
Young men are swinging away hard from Republicans, pessimistic about economy, new poll finds
Republicans’ 2024 gains among young men have evaporated — and that could have instant ramifications this November, according to a new Cygnal poll.
President Donald Trump narrowly carried young men in 2024, according to exit polls, a big swing toward the GOP from past elections. But Democrats’ generic ballot lead among male likely voters ages 18-30 now sits at 57%-40%, according to the new survey.
Trump’s favorability is underwater at just 38%-55%, and Republicans’ net favorability among the demographic now sits at -9 points, with 40% viewing the party favorably and 49% unfavorably.
One silver lining for the GOP: Among all registered voters sampled, including those least likely to turn out in November, the Democratic generic ballot lead is much smaller, 44% to 41%.
“It is not a very good electorate, if you’re the Republican Party, among the people who are the most determined to vote,” said Alex Tarascio, pollster and principal at Cygnal, in an interview with Blue Light News ahead of the poll’s release during Thursday’s Symposium on Young American Men.
Young men alone likely won’t determine control of Congress; they make up a fraction of the electorate, and they are less likely to vote than women of the same age or their older counterparts. But that lack of enthusiasm itself is a warning sign for Republicans, who will need to motivate their base ahead of November if they wish to maintain control of Congress.
The young men sampled are overwhelmingly concerned about cost-of-living issues — the same reason that many swung toward the GOP two years ago.
When given a list of options and asked which will matter most in determining their vote in November, a wide plurality — 29% — selected “inflation and the cost of living,” and another 14% chose “housing costs and being able to afford a place to live.” When asked what policies would make the biggest difference in their lives, the top answers again deal with the economy: The most-selected options were lowering the cost of goods, lowering housing costs and cutting taxes.
Many young men feel pessimistic about their ability to achieve success. When asked if they feel the rules in this country are set up to work for or against young men, 43% said they feel the rules are set up against them to 47% who said the rules are set up in their favor.
That pessimism bleeds into how they view other institutions. Both the Democratic Party (-1) and Republican Party (-9) have net-negative favorability among the demographic, and the White House’s current occupants are even more unpopular: Vice President JD Vance sits at 37% favorability with -10 net favorability, while Trump is at 38% favorability with -17 net.
“Young men are pretty down on institutions and political figures, and this one isn’t any exception to that,” Tarascio said.
Republicans successfully targeted young men and low-propensity voters in 2024 to help propel them to victory largely in part by having Trump sit for interviews with podcast hosts and influencers popular with young men. Trump has yet to return to those forums en masse ahead of the midterms, but he’s repeatedly told voters to pretend as if he’s on the ballot in November.
But Trump may no longer be the motivator he once was for turning out young, male, low-propensity voters. Among those surveyed who were least likely to vote, Trump’s net favorability is -22, lower than the respondents most likely to vote, where his net favorability is -19.
“If Trump gets in front of them, I don’t think it’s a bad bet, but for some of these people it could backfire,” Tarascio said.
The poll was conducted Sept. 15-18 with a sample of 800 registered male voters ages 18-30. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
Politics
NRSC Chair Tim Scott leaves Georgia, North Carolina off his list of top Senate targets
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races as it works to shore up red states like Texas and flip other Democratic-held seats.
In a closed-door meeting Wednesday, Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the NRSC, told Senate Republicans that the campaign arm will focus its spending going forward on defending GOP seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas and trying to flip the Democratic-held seats of Michigan and New Hampshire, according to four people in the room who were granted anonymity to share private details.
That list notably leaves out North Carolina GOP nominee Michael Whatley’s battle against Democrat Roy Cooper and Georgia GOP nominee Mike Collins’ effort to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Scott’s briefing is the clearest sign yet that Republicans have deprioritized the two states, as POLITICO has reported, while senior Republicans grow increasingly resigned to the possibility of losing those races. It’s a remarkable shift: President Donald Trump carried Georgia twice in 2016 and 2024 and North Carolina over the last three presidential elections.
In deprioritizing North Carolina, the NRSC is effectively ceding a state that Democrats haven’t won in the Senate since 2008.
Still, other GOP groups with massive war chests, including Trump’s MAGA Inc., could pick up the slack.
Scott also shared with the senators polling showing Republicans are locked in tight battles in several other key races, which tracks with much of the public polling, according to the four people.
For example, one poll found that GOP Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio is still trailing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Scott also showed polling indicating Republican John Sununu is essentially neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, a seat Republicans are laser-focused on trying to flip.
NRSC did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did Collins’ campaign.
“As Roy Cooper said earlier this year about U.S. Senate races in North Carolina, ‘Democrats are often ahead until they are not.’ And then just last week Cooper, correctly, observed, ‘We know a lot of undecided voters lean Republican.’ We’re confident we will have the resources to get our message out to North Carolina voters and win,” said Whatley Spokesman DJ Griffin in a statement.
Georgia GOP party chair Josh McKoon dismissed the notion that his state was being deprioritized by Republicans in Washington, even as he acknowledged beating Ossoff will be a challenge.
“Every cycle, someone in Washington leaks that they’re thinking about moving money,” he said in a text message. “What matters is who shows up — and what the actual numbers say.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is set to headline a fundraiser for Collins in Atlanta on Thursday, alongside the state’s popular Republican governor, Brian Kemp. The Collins campaign is also making the case that one in 10 Georgia voters — who backed Trump in 2024 and plan to vote for Jackson — are still “up for grabs,” according to a memo obtained by POLITICO.
“The goal in Georgia is to strike a balance where you are spending as little for Senate as possible while not derailing Rick Jackson’s, so far, very strong bid for Governor in a difficult environment,” said a GOP pollster granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape. Public polling shows the governor’s race has much tighter margins, with Jackson leading Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in some recent surveys.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost his Senate primary to Trump-backed Ken Paxton, was also in the room. He later told Blue Light News that the party has to make tough decisions.
“At some point I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive,” Cornyn said.
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