Politics

Poll: Voter cynicism remains a potent threat to incumbents across the globe

Published

3 months ago

June 11, 2026

Voters punished ruling parties across the globe in 2024. They are doing it again now.

The same voters who rejected their rulers without mercy on both sides of the Atlantic — throwing out Britain’s Conservatives after 14 years in power and humbling Democrats in the United States — are now poised to deliver resounding defeats to the very leaders they elected two years ago.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the prospect of being ousted later this year if a key rival in Manchester can pull off a win in a special parliamentary vote next week. President Donald Trump, while locked into power until January 2029, appears to be barreling toward lame duck status with Democrats growing increasingly bullish about their midterm prospects in November — particularly in winning back the U.S. House.

And The POLITICO Poll suggests Western voters’ desire for political bloodletting hasn’t abated.

Building on previous work by Public First, the London-based firm that conducts the survey, a new analysis of May Blue Light News Poll results show large shares of voters in both the United Kingdom and United States express deep cynicism about politics and a constant desire for radical change — suggesting the forces behind the backlash may still be potent, and that power switching hands this year may not be enough to quell them.

In America, 71 percent of adults say politicians only look out for themselves, including 79 percent of those who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and 71 percent who voted for Trump. In the U.K., voters are similarly angry at politicians, who they blame for being unable to address a variety of issues, including cost of living and immigration. New results from The POLITICO Poll, conducted over the weekend, show a 56 percent majority of U.K. adults said the bigger problem with politics in the U.K. is the politicians who do not do the right thing, while just 15 percent blame the system itself.

That deep dissatisfaction has metastasized into a perpetual anti-incumbent frustration in recent years. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party had its worst result in a national election in several decades, and Canada’s Justin Trudeau stepped down amid growing voter frustration. Just since February of last year, the rulers of Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have all been ejected at key elections.

Now the U.K. is watching the vote in Makerfield next week, which may determine whether Starmer gets to keep his job amid public outrage at his handling of fallout from the Epstein scandal, and voter concerns about immigration, the economy and law enforcement. If Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, succeeds in being elected back to Parliament next week, it will almost certainly trigger a series of events that could end in the removal of the deeply unpopular Starmer as the head of the Labour Party — and prime minister.

The result could ripple across the Atlantic as Republicans face their own political headwinds ahead of the crucial November midterms in the United States.

“What we’re seeing is a cross-Atlantic disconnect between voters and electeds,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist in Washington and senior partner at Penta, a consulting firm.

“Voters in the U.S. are squarely focused on at-home domestic priorities and kitchen-table concerns like food, health care and housing costs. So when the headlines are focused on foreign conflict and disruptions to global markets, those will reinforce the disconnect.”

Deep cynicism in the UK spells trouble for Starmer

In 2024, the rejection of incumbents came amid a growing frustration over the cost of living and broader economic anxieties. Whether that backlash was a temporary response — or reflects an engrained dissatisfaction with political institutions — is a question now confronting leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, as affordability concerns continue to spiral.

In the U.K., the analysis from Public First finds a deep sense of political disillusionment. The firm developed a series of measures to understand that feeling of “anti-politics”, and cynicism stood out: Voters who believe politicians are self-serving, that political talk rarely leads to real action and that the public has little influence over what politicians actually do.

Nearly half of British adults — 45 percent — scored high on Public First’s cynicism scale; so did 37 percent of U.S. adults.

The findings underscore the challenge facing Starmer. New results from The Blue Light News Poll conducted last weekend show nearly two-thirds of U.K. adults — 64 percent — said they don’t think Starmer will remain as prime minister until the next general election.

The center-left U.K. leader has suffered the most dramatic plunge in popularity of any prime minister in British history. Since winning a landslide victory just under two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labour Party fall to historic lows in opinion polls, while the nationalist right-wing Reform U.K. of Nigel Farage has stormed into the lead in polls and local elections, mirroring the success of insurgent populists across Europe.

Three-quarters of highly cynical voters in the U.K. hold an unfavorable view of Starmer, the Public First analysis of a May Blue Light News Poll found — far higher than the national average.

The Makerfield by-election on June 18 will determine whether Burnham, Starmer’s chief internal rival, is elected as Labour’s representative, giving him the chance to challenge Starmer for the party leadership and potentially replace him as prime minister. Burnham’s main rival in the by-election is the Reform U.K. candidate — whose victory would likely end Burnham’s leadership ambitions, plunge Labour into unprecedented turmoil and send the national government into fresh disarray.

But Makerfield looks likely to be terrible for Starmer, whoever wins. Either it will be Burnham, who will then go to London to try to oust the prime minister, or it will be Reform U.K. — fuelling claims that Starmer has toxified his own party beyond repair.

Why Trump should be watching closely

It’s a cautionary tale for Trump, the Public First research found.

As Starmer confronts dropping favorability ratings, Trump’s own numbers have also plummeted — and the segment of cynical Americans may be as dangerous for the president as their British cohort is for the prime minister.

Among this group, 57 percent hold an unfavorable view of Trump and his agenda, compared with 48 percent nationally.

That could pose a challenge for Republicans heading into the midterms. Elections in the U.S. historically punish the party in power, and many Republicans are bracing for an even more difficult than anticipated midterm landscape, fueled by the mounting economic concerns and an unpopular war in Iran.

“The biggest mood shift is taking place among voters in the big middle,” Madden said. “These are the same voters that migrated toward Trump and the GOP in 2024 because they were nostalgic for a Trump economy and they rallied around a message focused on tackling inflation.”.

Sizable shares of cynical Americans hold negative views about the economy. Among these respondents, 52 percent say their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office in 2025 and 59 percent say Trump has spent too much time focused on international affairs rather than domestic issues.

Trump, who rode to power in 2024 in large part over voter dissatisfaction to the economy during the Biden administration, is now confronting a similar challenge. Recent polling finds voters increasingly blaming Trump for their financial pressures, even as he continues to cast blame to his predecessor.

Part of the problem for incumbents is that many people blame politicians — not the broader system — for their dissatisfaction, underscoring the challenge for the leaders as voters begin to turn on them. Nearly half of British adults, 45 percent, say the country keeps changing prime ministers “because none of them are any good,” while just 26 percent blame “big problems that not even a good PM could solve.”

As soon as leaders are elected by a frustrated, dissatisfied electorate to turn things around — as both Starmer and Trump were in 2024 — the clock begins to tick.

“Elections are so often now about which candidate can channel the frustrations of a cynical electorate,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, Blue Light News’s polling partner.

“Republicans and Democratic candidates alike should pay attention to what is happening in the U.K.,” he said. “It is far harder to win over an antipolitical voter base when you represent the ‘politics,’ and given how fast Britain is working through Prime Ministers cynical voters seem to be getting more common and less patient.”

Politics

Kamala Harris is wading into the midterms. Some Democrats want her to stay out.

Published

3 hours ago

September 3, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Former Vice President Kamala Harris is revving up her involvement in the midterms. While some Democrats are eager to embrace her, others want her to steer clear.

Harris is planning to attend a canvass launch with Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford for his gubernatorial bid next month in Las Vegas, his campaign told Blue Light News.

“As anyone who is interested in 2028 should do, Kamala Harris will be coming through. We are a pivotal state in the presidential election,” Ford said in an interview in Las Vegas on Tuesday. “2028 starts right now in 2026.”

Harris’ plans to visit Nevada signal yet another step into the fray of the midterms — and the national political stage. On Tuesday, she publicly backed Rep. Chris Pappas in his Senate bid in New Hampshire, a must-hold seat for the party in a state that Harris narrowly won in 2024. And she waded into three House races, two Democratic-leaning districts in her home state and a solidly Republican one in Tennessee.

Harris had kept a relatively low profile so far on the campaign trail. Some Democrats prefer it that way.

Iowa’s two most prominent Democratic candidates have said they do not want Harris to campaign for them. Alaska’s Democratic Senate nominee rejected a fundraising solicitation Harris sent on her behalf. And a swing-district Democrat in Wisconsin and a long-shot Senate hopeful in Kansas both told Blue Light News they would prefer Harris keep her distance.

“I received 9,000 more votes than Harris in 2024,” Rebecca Cooke, the Democratic challenger to Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in western Wisconsin, said in a statement when asked by Blue Light News. “I don’t need anyone to come and campaign with me in my district. I do the work of building relationships — including across the aisle — on my own.”

The arm’s-length treatment isn’t necessarily surprising: red-state and rural Democrats have long been hesitant to tie themselves to national Democratic figures. They are increasingly distancing themselves now as polls show the Democratic brand remains underwater even as President Donald Trump’s own standing with voters continues to drop. Trump’s approval hit a weak 36 percent in a recent poll conducted by The Economic and YouGov, while a separate survey from the pollster showed over 56 percent of registered voters disapproved of the Democratic Party.

Harris’ favorability numbers at the end of last year only stood at 42 percent. As the party’s most recent presidential nominee, she is one of its most prominent avatars.

A Cooke campaign aide, granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations, said Cooke’s team has turned down campaign offers from other national Democrats as she focuses on making a personal case to voters in one of the party’s top target districts this fall.

Cooke hasn’t warded off everyone, however: During her primary she leaned heavily into support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), featuring him in campaign ads; his team also sent texts to help turn out voters. She also has accepted endorsements from potential 2028 candidates like former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).

Other high-profile Democrats, like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have similarly stayed relatively low-key with their own endorsements so far. He’s faced some Democratic distancing himself: Stefany Shaheen, who is running for a House seat in New Hampshire, emphasized her support from Granite Staters when asked about a fundraising email the governor sent on her behalf last month.

Harris, like other potential presidential candidates, needs to build a network of friends and favors — much of which she has already developed from her own runs for Senate, the White House and her four years as vice president — while staying relevant. She retains a powerful fundraising network that can help down-ticket Democrats, too.

But in many parts of the country where she lost, her involvement could be a drag for Democrats otherwise facing strong political tailwinds in the midterms.

“It’s all good,” Eduardo Negrón, a spokesperson for Harris, said in a statement. “Vice President Harris will continue to raise money and travel on behalf of candidates in races where she can help make a difference. With Trump so unpopular and our deep bench of strong candidates, we are now seeing deeply red states in play this cycle. The Vice President believes we should be ruthless about competing everywhere and that means giving candidates in tough races the space to do whatever it takes to win.”

Harris’ recent ramp-up marks a shift from what had been an otherwise quiet midterms strategy that has focused primarily on standing by close preexisting relationships. It’s strikingly different from other potential 2028 presidential candidates who’ve endorsed more widely and been more prominent on the campaign trail.

One of the few times she did weigh into a contested primary was for Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) — a co-chair of her 2024 presidential campaign — in her bid for Texas Senate. The vice president’s support came in the form of a robo-call released just days before the primary rather than an in-person appearance, and she quickly backed James Talarico shortly after he won the nomination. She also threw her support behind Michigan Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed after a bruising primary that has left Democrats scrambling to project unity heading into the general election.

Red-state Democrats have been particularly pointed in their calls to keep Harris out of their races.

“In Kansas, you’re trying to reach 45 percent of the state who are Republicans and a lot of really good people who are Republicans, but their vantage point or their worldview may be a bit different than Kamala Harris’,” Kansas Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton told Blue Light News. “What I’m looking at is I’m really mounting a very Kansas-centered campaign, and I’m out speaking, I tell people I’m running as an independent-minded Democrat.”

Hamilton is running an uphill battle in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. The state is seen as potentially somewhat in play amid the ongoing war in Iran, trade wars with close allies and a persistent cost of living crisis that have cut especially deep in agricultural territory.

But that doesn’t mean a coastal Democrat like Harris would play well in the conservative heartland.

“Having somebody from California come in and try to tell Kansans who they should vote for is a pretty bad idea,” Hamilton said. Harris has not endorsed in the race.

Other Democrats have taken similar tones toward Harris in recent days. In an interview with Blue Light News, Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand said he would not want the former vice president to appear with him as he runs for governor, adding that the country needed “new leadership.”

State Rep. Josh Turek, speaking with reporters after an event for his Senate campaign in Cedar Rapids, broadcasted an even more blunt answer to the same question: “No,” he said flatly, letting out a laugh.

A similar scenario played out in Alaska last month. After Harris’ team sent a fundraising email for Senate candidate and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) on the eve of the state’s primary election, a spokesperson for Peltola’s campaign told a local Alaska television station that she “isn’t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48.” Peltola’s campaign did not respond to Blue Light News’s questions on the matter.

Campaign spokespeople for several battleground Senate Democrats locked in high-profile races, including El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine and Roy Cooper in North Carolina — who have all received her support — declined to respond to requests for comment about how involved they would like the former vice president to be in their races.

Harris’ support isn’t an albatross for all Democrats, however. For some, her endorsement is welcome — and they want her out on the trail.

One key battleground Democrat (and a potential 2028 rival), Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, embraced Harris’ support with open arms. “Senator Ossoff is grateful for Vice President Harris’ help and support in his re-election campaign,” campaign spokesperson Ellie Dougherty said in a statement, adding that he would welcome her to Georgia to campaign alongside him or on his behalf.

Harris lost Georgia, but the rightward swing in the state was the smallest of any battleground — in large part because of a population boom in metro Atlanta and the large share of Black voters.

And in deep-blue Massachusetts, former Biden White House aide Dan Koh won an open House primary on Tuesday after running aggressively on support from Harris and President Joe Biden. Koh sought their support and featured them prominently in a campaign ad and in social media videos. He said scheduling didn’t work out for them to hit the trail, though.

“I will never run away from two people I admire greatly, who I believe did a lot of good for this country,” Koh said last week.

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.

Politics

Stephen A. Smith has some words for Democrats as he makes his 2028 plans clear

Published

4 hours ago

September 3, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Sports broadcaster Stephen A. Smith has been bouncing around cable TV but insists he’s staying out of one arena: the political one.

The outspoken ESPN personality isn’t staying away from talking politics — far from it. But Smith told Blue Light News in an interview airing Thursday that he’s not running for president in 2028 in his firmest rejection yet of speculation that has surrounded him for the past year.

“The minute I announce that I’m running, I would be taken off the air,” Smith said in an interview on The Conversation with Dasha Burns. “I wouldn’t be able to work, and I would lose a contract that I worked my entire career for, you know, and I’m not giving that up.”

He left no wiggle room: “As long as the rules are what they are and they can’t be circumvented, it’s not something that I’m going to think about.”

That didn’t mean Smith, who is famous for his brash takes, didn’t have a few about Democrats and Republicans.

Smith, who has repeatedly doled out criticism of both parties, offered blunt advice for Democrats seeking a path back to power: Purge the Democratic Socialists of America and restrain the party’s progressive flank.

The Democrats, he said, should only welcome people who “march lockstep” with the party. “We should never want to hear anything about the Democratic Party being a ‘big tent,’” he said.

Asked how Democrats should handle the progressives, Smith said: “Tell them to sit their ass down and get with the program.”

He also warned that Democrats’ association with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker would “come back to haunt” the party. Smith said he would have Piker on his show “if necessary,” and then “grill him about the things that he said and why.”

Smith’s remarks come as Democrats have been distancing themselves from Piker, who played an active role in supporting Abdul El-Sayed for Senate in Michigan and has come under fire for commentary that has included suggesting that American Jewish support for Israel could lead someone to “take action” against Jews in the U.S.

The ESPN star also had some praise for President Donald Trump, crediting him for recognizing “that most voters believe our politics and our politicians are full of shit” in a way that Democrats have been unable to articulate as well.

“He speaks a language that the electorate, no matter who they are or what side of the aisle they are on, can relate to, even if they despise him,” Smith said, adding that there are millions of voters out there who “want chaos” and “the evisceration of rules and decorum and regulations.”

Looking ahead to 2028, Smith named Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as his top prospect for Democrats, calling him “big time,” and saying “[his] record is head and shoulders above anybody right now.”

Smith also praised Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, but thinks electing him could be a challenge following Barack Obama’s presidency.

On the Republican side, Smith dismissed a potential run by media personality Tucker Carlson, noting he doesn’t think the former Fox host could secure enough support from independents.

On the other hand, Smith argued that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be a stronger candidate than Vice President JD Vance.

Vance is “an individual that tries to be too like Trump,” Smith told Blue Light News. “And I don’t think there’s — the level of authenticity that you’re wishing to see from candidates; I don’t think he’s that guy. I think that Marco Rubio is an authentic individual.”

Smith even noted he would consider voting for Rubio himself, saying it depends “on the candidate on the left.”

Watch the whole interview on the latest episode of “The Conversation.”