Politics

Poll: Americans disagree on what a ‘stolen’ election means

Published

1 month ago

May 10, 2026

Questions about the integrity of elections have become pervasive in American politics — and new polling reveals the sharp differences in Republican and Democratic fears.

Nearly six years after President Donald Trump and his allies sought to overturn the results of the 2020 election, a recent POLITICO Poll suggests that a notable number of Americans are distrustful of the system heading into November. More than one-third say it is likely the 2026 midterms will be “stolen,” and one in four say they don’t expect the elections to be fair.

But both parties clash strongly over what they believe are the core problems with U.S. elections, complicating any path to restoring voter trust.

Democrats are concerned about voter intimidation and suppression, with 58 percent of those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris worried that eligible Americans will be prevented from voting, the survey finds. Meanwhile, Republicans remain focused on the possibility of fraud, with 52 percent of Trump voters saying they are concerned that some ineligible people will be allowed to vote.

The Blue Light News Poll asked respondents about 11 common election concerns, ranging from partisan gerrymandering to impounding ballots, and whether people saw them as legitimate parts of the process or a way to rig elections. Of those, Democrats and Republicans had meaningful disagreement or lacked consensus on six.

Take expanding mail-in voting, for example. Once considered a largely routine way to broaden access to voting, a majority of Trump voters now say this can be a way to rig elections. Harris voters feel the opposite: 59 percent say expanding mail-in voting is a normally fair or always fair part of the electoral system.

Then there’s deploying ICE at polling locations. A majority of Harris voters say the practice would more likely be a way to sway election results, even as some Republicans haven’t ruled out such a measure to strengthen election security. A 47 percent plurality of Trump voters say deploying ICE across polling stations would be normally fair or always fair.

The poll results reveal a striking truth as lawmakers continue to battle over election security: Even as a sizable share of Americans believe elections can, or will, be “stolen,” there’s very little agreement on what that even means.

“I don’t think that we have a great working definition of what constitutes … a free and fair election,” said Stephen Richer, a legal fellow at the Cato Institute and former Republican county recorder of Maricopa County, Arizona. “I think it is entirely possible that even within the world that doesn’t think that elections are being hacked by Italian spy satellites, that we have a disagreement as to whether or not we’ve had a free and fair election in 2026.”

Trump often claims the 2020 results were “stolen” and blames mail voting, the lack of strict voter ID and proof of citizenship laws for opening the door to voter fraud — though courts and election officials have repeatedly upheld the legitimacy of those results. Many Democrats, on the other hand, are already bracing for Trump to interfere with the election and strategizing about ways to respond.

“President Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections, and that includes totally accurate and up-to-date voter rolls free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement.

Doubt about election proceedings has still not overtaken the electorate — nearly half of Americans say they still expect the 2026 midterms to be fair. But the survey — along with interviews with election experts — underscores how rhetoric from leaders is trickling down to voters.

David Becker, the executive director and founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research, said the divergence results partly from the strict echo chambers within the Democratic and Republican parties.

“This goes back to the problem where many of us are retreating into our media bubbles, where we hear a reality that only serves to validate our existing opinions,” he said.

For Democrats, their doubts appear to be going up as Trump continues to repeat false claims about the 2020 election and raise alarms about the 2026 midterms.

Nearly 40 percent of Harris voters say it is likely the 2026 midterms will be “stolen,” compared to 16 percent who believed the 2020 election was stolen — though comparing perspectives on a past election to a future one is not an exact measure. That’s roughly the same level as Trump voters who doubt the integrity of the 2020 results or who fear the 2026 midterms will be stolen — both at around 40 percent — according to the poll results.

The survey finds that some of the most significant areas of disagreement or distance between the parties are the prospect of ICE showing up at polls, mail-in voting, and requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Roughly 60 percent of Harris voters say ICE showing up at polling places would normally or always be a way to steal elections, compared to 33 percent of Trump voters who say the same.

The Trump administration has insisted that immigration officers will not be at polling places in November, but many Democrats have still expressed concern over the possibility. In March, nine state secretaries of state wrote a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin seeking confirmation that immigration agents would not be present at polling locations in November.

“If you have ICE outside of a handful of voting locations, I think that there are some on the left of the pro-democracy coalition, or the previously existing pro-democracy coalition, who would say that it invalidates the fairness of an election,” Richer said. “And then there are those of us who would say … it’s not ideal, and there are legal remedies, but that doesn’t mean that the election was stolen or should be thrown out.”

The 2020 election marked a major turning point in rhetoric surrounding mail-in voting, when Trump repeatedly criticized the practice during the COVID-19 pandemic — allegations he has continued to press in the years since.

Roughly 55 percent of Harris voters say banning mail-in voting could lead to a rigged election, while Trump voters are split on the issue: 41 percent say banning mail-in voting would largely be fair, while 42 percent say this would be a way to steal an election.

And then there’s the question of voter registration, and whether to require proof of citizenship when voters register — a core objective of Trump’s SAVE America Act. Just under two-thirds of Trump voters say this would always or normally be a fair part of the election process. A plurality of Harris voters agree, but by a much smaller margin: 44 percent say this would be a fair election practice.

Even the idea of voter roll maintenance — a common part of election administration that Trump’s Justice Department has intensified by aiming to strip non-citizens from every state’s rolls — shows a partisan gap. Roughly 60 percent of Harris voters say the practice of “purging voter rolls” is normally or always a way to steal an election, compared to just 46 percent of Trump voters.

There are areas where the parties agree. Pluralities or majorities of both groups agree that same-day voter registration and signing up new voters outside of churches are largely fair.

Majorities of both Trump and Harris voters say partisan gerrymandering can be a way to steal elections, which comes as officials in both parties engage in an intensifying redistricting arms race. There is also a near-majority consensus that seizing or impounding ballots can be a way to rig results. Earlier this year, the FBIseized 2020 election ballots from the Fulton County elections office in Georgia, and a federal judge recently ruled that the Justice Department can keep the election records as part of its search.

Still, election experts say the overall partisan divide is dampening voters’ confidence.

“We’ve now had multiple years in a row of state legislators passing and introducing and passing laws that are targeting voter access — making it harder to participate in the electoral process — where the actual mechanics of elections have been politicized, and that too takes its toll,” said Wendy Weiser, the Brennan Center for Justice’s vice president for democracy.

Politics

US to reach $41T debt ceiling as soon as late winter, forecasters predict

Published

15 minutes ago

June 12, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

The Treasury Department could prevent a U.S. debt default for several months after that…
Read More

Politics

The small-town voters deciding the UK’s future are demanding change, our focus group found

Published

2 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England — Voters in perhaps the most consequential special election ever held in Britain are angry, and they really want someone to feel their pain.

That’s the clear verdict from a special focus group by Public First for Blue Light News of voters in Makerfield, the former mining area in northwest England whose June 18 vote could determine the next prime minister.

Some in the group said Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate who is hot favorite to succeed party leader Keir Starmer as PM if he can get himself back into Parliament, might make a difference. But the overwhelming mood during the 90-minute conversation in the Golden Lion pub was one of deep cynicism and bitterness: Life in 2026 is unfair, miserably expensive, and only getting worse, they said.

The goal of Wednesday’s focus group was to get a deep understanding of life in Makerfield — and how voters there are thinking about next week’s by-election. The voters had a mix of political histories and leanings, with longtime Labour voters sitting with supporters of right-wing parties and people who were undecided. But all expressed remarkably similar concerns about the cost of living, immigration, public safety and frustration about an increasingly unequal society.

“These were not a group of people that were thrilled about anything that was going on in Westminster,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, who moderated the discussion.

Can Burnham overcome that deep disillusionment with the political system? Or will Nigel Farage’s hard right Reform UK party tap into the anger at “two tier” Britain and eject center-left Labour from a seat it has held for decades?

Here are the key takeaways from Blue Light News’s Makerfield focus group:

Starmer’s Labour Party has let them down

There was no love for Starmer — and some even felt there was no real difference between his two-year old government and the center-right Conservatives who held power for the previous 14 years. Not one of the nine people in the group said they thought he’d done a good job as prime minister.

And Labour’s party brand has been damaged as a result.

Tom, a father who is planning to vote Reform, said Labour had always claimed to stand for working-class people — but with the cost of daily essentials now punishingly high for everyone in the room and no relief in sight, “How are they for the working class anymore?”

Daily life is too expensive

The participants easily rattled off the exact prices they‘ve watched increase: The cost of living — from a fast-food meal to rent, to a family trip to the cinema — has risen rapidly and become unsustainable for many people in Makerfield, they said. Family holidays they could afford in the past, even for people working full time, are “just a dream” now, one person added.

Jenny, who is retired, said the cost of living has become “terrible.”

Paul, a father who works three jobs, often from 7:30 a.m. until 4 a.m. the next morning, is struggling, and feels let down. “No one should work 60 hours a week and not be able to have a nice life,” he said. “It’s a joke.”

Paul (right) said he works three jobs and feels let down.

They’re gloomy about politics

Few in the group could point to a political leader of the last 10 years who they felt had made a positive impact on their lives.

Peter, who usually votes Conservative, praised David Cameron’s decision to call a referendum on Brexit 10 years ago. A couple of participants went further back — almost 20 years — to name Tony Blair, who ushered in a Labour government in 1997 after almost two decades of Conservative control, as the last PM who delivered for them.

But most had little confidence that any of today’s politicians would make a difference.

“No government is going to change it,” said Paul. “They’re all crooks, mate. Biggest gangsters in the world.”

Bob, who is in his 90s, added: “I’ve not met a bloody good one yet to be honest.”

They’re very upset about immigration

Farage’s Reform UK is surging ahead in national polls and local elections across the country and is in with a chance of taking Makerfield from Labour. Tackling immigration is his signature policy, and it is clearly a huge concern to participants in the Blue Light News group.

The three-letter acronym they kept coming back to was “HMOs.” It stands for Houses in Multiple Occupation — and that means by migrants, in the perception of the focus group.

The concern, the Makerfield voters said, is that landlords and developers are turning homes into residences not for existing local families to live in but for newly arrived immigrants — who are not related to each other — to share. They fear that pushes up rent prices for people who have been living in the area for many years and changes the nature of their community, which is 95 percent made up of people from a “White British” background.

Participants also said they believed many illegal migrants were overwhelming the local health service, making it harder for taxpaying residents to get medical care.

Farage is winning converts who want change

With their anger at the status quo — and demand for a change in their lives and the country’s direction — several focus group participants said they’re increasingly looking to Reform UK.

“I’ve always voted Labour. This is the first time I’m not voting Labour, I’m voting Reform,” said Tom, who is married with two children and works full-time. “They are pushing big on immigration, which is one of our biggest factors.” Reform is not perfect, he said, “it’s more how bad the country’s got over the years with Labour in charge. There needs to be change.”

Dan, another local father who works but struggles to make his money last, said he’d also be switching from Labour to Reform: “I think the country just needs a bit of a shakeup, even if it’s just for one term.”

Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage speaks at a press conference for the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon ahead of the Makerfield by-election.

Crime is a big worry

Crime and disorder seems to be rising up their agenda. A knife attack in the street in Belfast this week, which sparked protests and violent disorder, was at the top of many participants’ minds. They raised fears about crime locally, too, including “feral kids” who harass people in the streets and lead some residents to feel unsafe while out with their families.

There are now fewer police on the streets and they don’t tend to care much about incidents in the constituency’s biggest town, Ashton-in-Makerfield, participants said.

Life isn’t fair in “two-tier” Britain

For the right in British politics, it is now an article of faith that the country is suffering from a “two tier” system in which ordinary Brits miss out, often thanks to politically correct decisions that police and others take to satisfy equality laws.

Farage and Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch have both seized on high-profile cases in recent days to make this point, and in Blue Light News’s focus group, it had clearly landed — even among some who are going to vote Labour.

The participants in the focus group represented a mix of backgrounds and political identities.

“We need to come up with a better system that makes it fair for everybody. It is a two-tier system here,” said Peter, the local butcher, who is switching this time from the Conservatives to vote for Labour’s Burnham.

Many in the group agreed that the problem was not just policing, but also a wider sense of unfairness — that places like London and even Manchester get all the money and attention, leaving towns like Ashton to struggle.

“A lot of the politics, like Andy has said, has been Londonised. We need somebody from up north,” Peter said.

Traffic jams and warehouses

Alongside immigration from overseas, the changing nature of the area and its “close-knit” local community was a worry for many in the group. In particular, they raised concerns that plans to build hundreds of new homes and five “super unit” warehouses would lead to a huge increase in traffic that the already clogged road network would be unable to handle.

The green landscape around Ashton is highly prized, and several people in the group said they did not want fields to be built on, turning their area into another endless suburb like Liverpool or Manchester.

Andy Burnham stands in front of supporters during the launch of his campaign as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election.

‘Andy cares’

Burnham’s record as Mayor of Greater Manchester, the broader area, was seen as a big plus, even by people who were not likely to vote for him.

Participants in the group readily named his achievements at improving local transport infrastructure and hiring more police. Two even said they had in the past gone directly to Burnham with problems they or their families were facing and he had fixed them.

Most of all, there was a sense that Burnham, who grew up nearby and previously represented people in the area in parliament, understands their lives. Bob, Peter, Emma and Mandy all said they were planning to vote for Burnham next week.

“He just comes over as if he cares and as if he wants to sort the country out,” said Mandy, who works part-time as a cleaner and merchandizer. “I just think he seems to be a more down-to-earth person who is looking out for people. He seems more genuine.”

Having someone from the North as prime minister would also help their area, several participants said. “We need better leadership,” added Peter. “We need somebody who cares and I do feel like Andy cares.”