As Republicans look to flip House seats through redistricting in Texas and other red states, they have a pickup opportunity in what was once deep blue North Jersey, without having to redraw any lines.

In the state’s heavily Hispanic 9th Congressional District, the Democrat who was widely thought to be a shoo-in won by just five points last year, and President Donald Trump narrowly won the district after losing it the last two cycles. Yet, even amid talk of New Jersey becoming a purple state, just two Republican candidates have stepped forward to run in the district.

By contrast, in the one Republican-held seat Democrats have a realistic opportunity to pick up, in Central Jersey’s 7th District, Democrats are practically falling over each other to challenge two-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. Nine Democratic candidates — including several with a proven ability to raise funds and made-for-campaign bios like former Navy Black Hawk pilot, physician and climate scientist — have declared their candidacies with nearly a year to go before the primary.

“Democrats in New Jersey feel like the stakes are existential — literally existential — in these midterm elections,” said Hunterdon County Democratic Chair Tom Malinowski, a former 7th District representative whom Kean ousted in 2022. “I’m not sure Republicans feel quite as strongly.”

Trump’s remarkably narrow six-point loss in New Jersey last year was widely seen as a sign one of the bluest states in the nation was turning purple. And there are other indicators that Democratic dominance is fading in the state. Since the 2020 election, Republicans have shaved Democrats’ statewide voter registration advantage from more than 1 million to 864,825. And in the 2021 election, Republican Jack Ciattarelli — yet again the GOP nominee for governor this year — came within just three points of ousting Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

But presidential elections turn out more lower-propensity voters than midterms. And wealthier suburban districts like the 7th have had higher turnout than the more working-class 9th. Candidate recruitment and fundraising are some of the few tangible measures of where the political winds are blowing. And in New Jersey’s 2026 House races, Democrats are so far dominating on both fronts.

“Republicans are calling the 9th a swing district. They’re talking about a potential investment,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “But I think they understand they’re not going to get the turnout they’re looking for in a midterm. I think it’s a different kind of priority than the 7th District, where turnout is not going to be as dependent on the presidential race.”

The heavy interest from Democrats seeking to oust Kean is reminiscent of the blue wave 2018 midterms, when Democrats flipped four New Jersey Republican-held House seats. Back then, seven Democrats lined up to run for the 7th District seat — and that was when the district boundaries made it slightly easier for Democrats to win it.

Even in South Jersey’s 2nd District, where Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew won reelection last year by 17 points, three Democrats have filed to run in 2026 — more than Republicans in the 9th District. The same goes for North Jersey’s 11th District, where three Democrats have already filed with the FEC to replace Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee for governor, in case she wins the governorship this November and vacates the seat.

In the 9th District, Republican Billy Prempeh is running again in his fourth straight campaign for the seat since 2020, and just one other Republican has so far come forward: Rosemary Pino, a councilmember in Clifton. No one else has even teased a candidacy yet to take on Democratic freshman Rep. Nellie Pou, though Republicans are optimistic other candidates will emerge.

While national Republicans Blue Light News spoke to had yet to commit to any candidates, Prempeh — who narrowly lost in 2024 — believes he can be their man.“I feel supported by the Republican Party. I think they see the same things that I see: This district is very winnable. I think I’m making the right choice,” he said in a phone interview.

But Prempeh, never a strong fundraiser, has barely raised anything for his next race. His last campaign finance report, filed mid-July, showed a balance of negative $634.

“We ran that race with under $50,000, while my opponent spent close to $500,000 against me,” Prempeh said. “I’m very good at running a race, even with small resources.”

Pino, as a Hispanic woman, could be a demographic ideal for a Republican candidate in the district. But she’s already demonstrated vulnerability. Shortly after she declared her candidacy, Prempeh pointed out that a group she led last year endorsed Pou against him.

Passaic County GOP Chair Peter Murphy, whose county makes up much of the district, said that it’s a tempting target for Republicans and that he sees more candidates emerging, including from next door in Bergen County. “I really do believe more Republicans are going to be coming out of the 9th district. I think you’re going to see a lot more coming. By the primary I could see four or five,” he said.

Meanwhile, Republicans are pointing to Central Jersey’s 7th District race as a potential mess, while noting Pou in the 9th District could face her own primary challenge.

Many of the Democratic candidates in the 7th live just outside the district, including Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy Blackhawk pilot and the first to declare. So far, she has captured the most attention from national Democrats. But several rivals have already raised hundreds of thousands of dollars, and Republicans warn that in such a large primary, the candidates will work to drag the field to the left, hurting the eventual nominee’s chances in the general election.

Bennett said she felt called to run. “I can’t explain it any other way that a switch flipped in my brain, and I told my husband, ‘I have to run for office now,’” she said. “I really love this country. I took an oath to support and defend the Constitution.”

Republicans see Pou as a potentially weak incumbent, never having had competitive general elections during her time in the state Legislature and already facing buzz about potential primary challengers, including from the mayor of Paterson, by far the largest city in the district.

Kean, by contrast, is a two-term incumbent with a family name that goes back generations in New Jersey. His father, Tom Kean Sr., is the state’s most popular former governor.

“Whoever prevails will be wearing the progressive crown, completely broke and too battered to even compete against Rep. Tom Kean Jr.,” said Maureen O’Toole, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Harrison Neely, a campaign consultant for Kean, said the field is “a clear signal of Democrat party chaos and disarray. They can’t unite behind a candidate because they have no organization, no vision and nothing to offer.”

In addition to Bennett, the 7th District field includes: Tina Shah, a medical doctor; Michael Roth, a former top official at the Small Business Administration; businessman Brian Varela; former Summit councilmember Greg Vartan; criminal justice professor Beth Adubato; attorney Valentina Mendoza; and little-known Michael Garth. Megan O’Rourke, a former Biden administration climate scientist, became the latest to declare her candidacy this month.

Democrats see echoes of the 2018 Democratic wave, when seven candidates filed to run in the district’s primary. Eventually, the field narrowed down to three, and the nominee — Malinowski — ousted Leonard Lance that November after 10 years in Congress.

Recent polling shows Trump is unpopular in New Jersey — between 11 points and 18 points under water, according to two recent polls. Still, that’s more popular than he was at this point in 2018.

The 7th and 9th Districts both encapsulate a shift in the Democratic and Republican coalitions. The wealthier, suburban and whiter 7th has many traditional Republican voters who began shifting left after Trump’s first election. That’s in contrast to the more working-class, Hispanic-plurality 9th, which has recently moved towards Republicans.

But so far, the signs point to a tough time flipping the 9th District in a midterm, said Rasmussen, the Rebovich Institute director.

“Republicans realize that their success in the 9th depends on presidential-level turnout that they’re not going to get in 2026,” he said. “They could get it again in 2028, although presumably Trump isn’t going to be on the ballot.”