Congress
Mike Lawler will go his own way — or so he says
NEW YORK — The subtext of President Donald Trump’s recent reelection endorsement of Rep. Mike Lawler appeared clear enough: Stay, fight and keep your battleground New York seat red. Also, shelve your ambitions to become governor.
But Lawler isn’t interpreting the president’s Truth Social post as the decree others have.
The suburban Republican, after all, has doggedly built his brand as an independent and has long sought to be the first in a generation from his party to win statewide office in conventionally blue New York.
“Ultimately, my decision is going to be my decision,” Lawler told Blue Light News in an interview the night after Trump’s endorsement. “It’s going to be based on whether or not I believe there’s a pathway in the general election.”
He said he has no interest “in a kamikaze mission” and will make his call by June. In the meantime, the 38-year-old second-term House member has plenty to tackle in Congress, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap, his calling-card cause. He’s calculating that a win on SALT could boost his viability statewide, and he’s also factoring in how potential cuts to Medicaid, federal immigration policy and the impact of Trump’s tariffs might impact his political future. But his stated priorities won’t be easy to secure. Republicans are locked in increasingly tense negotiations central to Trump’s “big, beautiful” spending bill.
Even if he does score key policy wins in the coming months, Lawler will still have a fight on his hands — regardless of which office he pursues next year.
Option A: Republicans want to topple Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, but without the messy GOP primary of 2022. Aside from Lawler, upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman are top gubernatorial contenders, and their allegiances to Trump would likely give one of them a primary edge over Lawler. Then, of course, there’s the general election, which would be an uphill battle in its own right, but would likely favor Lawler, the moderate, over Stefanik or Blakeman.
Option B is also tricky: If Lawler opts to seek a third term in purple Hudson Valley, he’ll do so as one of the country’s most vulnerable House Republicans. The stage for the midterms has been set with town halls packed by constituents outraged over Trump’s agenda and a burgeoning field of eager Democratic challengers sharpening their claws.
Trump — whose Truth Social posts can make or break political careers — looms over it all. The president is seeking more influence in his home state, where he built his real estate and TV businesses — and where Democrats successfully prosecuted him.
Several New York Republicans told Blue Light News they see his glowing endorsement of Lawler’s House bid as clearing the path for Stefanik to run for governor.
Trump is closely aligned with the 40-year-old Stefanik, whose nomination for United Nations ambassador he abruptly yanked in March to protect Republicans’ slim House majority. Stefanik, a member of House GOP leadership, and Lawler briefly feuded over their preferred candidates for her House seat, but both their camps said they’ve since mended fences.
Did Stefanik ask Trump to weigh in this week on Lawler’s future? She declined to say.
Would Lawler run for governor without Trump’s blessing? He won’t say.
“He knows I’m considering it,” Lawler said. “Look, obviously, his voice matters, and his thoughts on a prospective campaign matter, but that’s a conversation I will have with him at some point.”
Lawler told Blue Light News he’s spoken with White House officials but not the president himself since Trump’s Tuesday night Truth Social post.
In it, the president lauded Lawler as a “true America First Patriot” fighting to secure the border and grow the economy, proffering a “Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election.”
Lawler is widely viewed as a media-savvy workhorse and the best contender to keep his district out of Democratic hands — and he has toed the line with Trump. But he’s made exceptions. His willingness to buck his party has included standing up for Ukraine, opposing provisions that would defund Planned Parenthood and voting with Democrats against a GOP effort to block a measure allowing lawmakers with newborns to vote remotely.
Being tied too closely to the president would hurt him in either general election he’s eying.
Lawler said he’s grateful for the president’s endorsement, but as of Thursday night had yet to promote it on his own social media accounts. Democrats are spreading the word for him.
“Mike Lawler just received a presidential-level snub from Donald Trump,” Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Kevin Donohoe said in a statement. “Donald Trump, and no one else, will choose New York’s next Republican gubernatorial nominee — and it’s not going to be Mike Lawler.”
Republicans who know him said Lawler isn’t afraid to go his own way.
“The only person who will tell Michael whether or not to run for governor will be Michael,” said Dave Catalfamo, a GOP strategist and former top aide to New York’s last Republican governor, George Pataki. “I truly believe that what has made Mike so successful and what has made him attractive as a candidate is his independence.”
For his part, Lawler has continued to stress his bipartisan record — even though its mention has invited jeers at the hostile Hudson Valley town halls he holds in defiance of GOP guidance. Livid attendees have railed at him over proposed cuts to Medicaid and Trump’s deportation plans, with some saying his record doesn’t match his rhetoric and protesters calling him “MAGA Mike.” One constituent in her 60s was forcibly removed at his most recent forum. Lawler has said he opposes cuts to Medicaid for “eligible” recipients. Ever the political animal, he’s blasted the disruptors as activists and even fundraised on the acrimony by encouraging supporters to text “CRAZY” to a campaign number.
In Washington, with the stakes high over ironing out the Republican spending bill, Lawler’s moderate Democratic colleagues have shown an appreciation for him. This week, he and Long Island Rep. Laura Gillen reintroduced a bill to codify the right to access in vitro fertilization.
At their joint news conference, she suggested he bend Trump’s ear on the legislation as he has on SALT, saying, “He probably talks to the president more than I do and maybe he can put in a good word.”
Lawler replied good-naturedly, “You got it.”
Congress
Capitol agenda: Summer exit eludes Senate
Don’t expect the typically strong smell of Thursday jet fumes in the halls of the Senate just yet.
Ideally, senators would be leaving town for a five-week recess after business Thursday, but a legislative pile-up and pressure from President Donald Trump has made that impossible.
All 100 senators still need to agree to a deal to speed up consideration of a measure to extend government funding through Dec. 11, a Russia sanctions bill, dozens of nominees including Todd Blanche and a bipartisan college athletics bill — an agenda that would otherwise take weeks to accomplish.
Republicans also need to make a decision about whether they’re going to attempt to take an initial step on a third party-line spending bill, which includes election security measures Trump is demanding.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday evening the vibes were “starting to pick up” in terms of a deal taking shape. But he cautioned on jet fumes:
“You’re not going to be smelling those anytime real soon. …We’ve obviously got, like I said, a stack of stuff to do,” he said.
While Thune hasn’t ruled out taking up a budget blueprint for the GOP bill, he said it was “hard to say at this point” if the votes were there.
However senators are eyeing an exit strategy to allow Republicans to leave town while giving Trump a small win by taking up his elections measure. With that option, Republicans would bring up legislation related to the SAVE America Act instead of advancing a budget resolution, three people granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions said.
Thune said it “remains to be seen” whether that’s enough for hard-liners who have threatened to oppose leaving town without a vote on it.
Also still in limbo is Trump’s attorney general pick Blanche, who met Wednesday with GOP holdouts Sens. Bill Cassidy and Lisa Murkowski. Neither said afterward how they would vote on the nomination — and Blanche needs to secure at least one of their votes.
Government funding legislation is also stuck in the pile-up, with Republicans grappling with intraparty wrangling over hemp language. And an agreement to speed up consideration of the Russia sanctions measure is also in limbo as Democrats work through concerns in their ranks about it.
And Democrats are waiting for smoke signals from Republicans on whether they’ll force them to vote on cryptocurrency legislation that many of them currently oppose (more on that below). Dems are eager to avoid taking that vote ahead of the recess, potentially fueling tens of millions of dollars of campaign spending by industry allies.
What else we’re watching:
— JOHNSON BULLISH ON SPEAKERSHIP: Mike Johnson said he is planning to remain speaker if House Republicans hold onto the House — but didn’t weigh in on his future plans if Democrats flip the majority. “I don’t have to answer that question because we’re gonna win,” Johnson told Dasha Burns on Tuesday in an interview for Blue Light News’s The Conversation. “I’m gonna remain speaker of the House,” he added. Johnson would face difficult political headwinds to stay on as minority leader if Democrats take back the chamber, but he dodged on the topic, reiterating his optimism.
— FARM BILL OUTLOOK DIMS: Agriculture ranking member Amy Klobuchar is signaling she’ll oppose the GOP-led farm bill up for a markup Thursday, likely scuttling chances it’ll advance. At issue is a provision to delay requirements that states pay for part of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Agriculture Chair John Boozman has offered a one-year delay while Democrats are asking for two years. The nutrition aid requirements were passed as part of the GOP’s megabill last summer. Boozman needs to win support from at least one Democrat to advance the bill out of committee given Sen. Mitch McConnell’s prolonged absence.
Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy and Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.
Congress
Senate’s summer pileup is threatening a quick recess escape
Ideally, the Senate would be adjourning for a five-week break in less than 24 hours.
Instead, Republican senators are still navigating what Majority Leader John Thune described as a “train wreck” as they face a pileup of legislation, key nominations and public pressure from President Donald Trump and angry conservatives to show progress on a GOP election bill Trump views as his “No. 1 priority.”
They’re heading into Thursday — when the scent of jet fumes typically starts wafting through the halls of Congress — without a deal that would let them speed up votes on a government funding bill or long-stalled Russia sanctions bill.
Meanwhile, Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination is still stuck in limbo after he came to the Capitol Wednesday for a roughly hourlong meeting with two key Republican holdouts.
That said, the general outlines of a deal that would allow senators to quickly get out of Washington and onto the campaign trail has started taking shape, even as senators and aides acknowledged they might have to stick around at least a little bit longer than they’d hoped.
“Don’t kill the vibe — it’s starting to pick up,” Thune said in an interview, while cautioning that “you’re not going to be smelling those [jet fumes] anytime real soon. … We’ve obviously got, like I said, a stack of stuff to do.”
One key issue Republicans haven’t yet settled is a new party-line spending bill that would pump billions of dollars into the Pentagon, to ailing farmers and into some elections-related spending that could take some of the Trump-fueled pressure off — even as several people with knowledge of the discussions said the votes aren’t there.
Thune hasn’t formally ruled out taking up a budget blueprint for the GOP bill, saying Wednesday it was “hard to say at this point” if he had the votes. But he indicated there was progress behind the scenes toward an exit strategy that would allow Republicans to start their recess with minimal internal friction.
“There’s not clarity, but it’s getting less cloudy if you put it that way,” Thune said.
Three people granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions said that endgame would not involve the time-consuming process of advancing a budget, but instead calling up a vote related to the SAVE America Act, the Trump-backed elections bill.
Republican leaders are hoping that holding a vote on the elections proposal, at the Senate’s usual 60-vote threshold for legislation, will let them hammer Democrats as the holdup while satisfying Republicans who have been frustrated over the lack of progress and have threatened to oppose leaving town.
“We’re looking at options there,” Thune said about possible SAVE America-related votes.
He added that it “remains to be seen” if that would be enough to placate Trump-allied rabble-rousers, “but we’ve had a number of conversations now about how we get the votes people feel are necessary.”
A key MAGA ally, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, posted a social media video Wednesday thanking Thune, saying that the conversation has moved in a “favorable direction” and that Republicans were discussing “what procedural vehicle to use in order to get this thing done.”
Thune has several other obstacles to clear besides the SAVE America fight.
Senators want an agreement that would let them extend government funding into mid-December, pass a sanctions bill targeting Russia in honor of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, confirm dozens of Trump nominees, including Blanche, and start work on a bipartisan college sports bill.
The highest drama surrounds Blanche, who met Wednesday with GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Neither said afterward how they would vote on his nomination. With Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and every Democrat expected to oppose Blanche, and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) out for health reasons, he will need to win support from at least one of the two.
The legislative targets have issues, too: Republicans are grappling with intraparty wrangling over hemp language included in the stopgap bill, and Democrats are working through concerns in their ranks about the sanctions bill.
They also want to know if Republicans are going to force them to take a vote on cryptocurrency legislation that many Democrats currently oppose. They are eager to avoid taking that vote ahead of the recess as bipartisan talks happen behind the scenes — especially because a failed vote could potentially fuel tens of millions of dollars of campaign spending against Democratic opponents by industry allies.
Democrats are also looking for signals from Republicans about whether they will move forward with the party-line budget plan. But it was clear by Wednesday afternoon that major obstacles remained.
One GOP senator said Wednesday evening that “there won’t be the votes to do reconciliation and that will simplify things” for the rest of the schedule.
At a Senate GOP lunch meeting, Budget Chair Ron Johnson of Wisconsin presented his ideas for the budget blueprint. It would closely mirror a version that the House advanced last month, but it would also instruct a host of new committees to help draft the bill — expanding the range of issues Democrats could force vulnerable GOP incumbents to take tough votes on just months before the midterms.
Besides ongoing intra-GOP disputes about the amount of Pentagon funding to include and whether to offset the spending with cuts elsewhere, Thune is dealing with senators who aren’t convinced that they should force the issue just months before voters cast ballots.
Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who described himself as a “lean no” on the budget, said his views were being influenced by wanting to protect vulnerable colleagues.
“There’s only like five members of my conference that I care about. and they’re the ones who are running in at-risk states,” he said.
Asked if he would vote “no” to protect them, Tillis added, “I’m going to support my members who are up for election. They’re the most important priority right now.”
Congress
Trump urges GOP senators to back off hemp ban
President Donald Trump and top White House officials are privately lobbying Republican senators to delay a ban on intoxicating hemp that’s set to kick in this fall.
At the Trump administration’s urging, the government funding patch the Senate is working to pass this week would push off the forthcoming ban of some cannabis products derived from hemp. But several Republican senators are demanding a vote to strip the delay out and let that prohibition kick in come November.
They’re hearing from the White House about it.
Trump called Sen. Ted Budd on Tuesday night, after the North Carolina Republican filed an amendment to ensure the ban kicks in as mandated on Nov. 12, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to describe the private discussion. On the call, the president discussed creating a federal regulatory framework for hemp but did not ask Budd to withdraw his amendment, the individual added.
“I’ve been asked by lots of people to stand down on this amendment,” Budd told reporters Wednesday.
Budd noted that the Trump administration has had almost nine months to come up with a plan for implementing the ban.
“So why all of a sudden pop up for some seemingly innocent delay?” he asked, accusing the White House of instead preparing to “jam this on some must-pass” funding package at year’s end to further delay the prohibition.
A White House official granted anonymity to discuss the private debate said the Trump administration is seeking “a modest four-week delay” through the Dec. 11 expiration of the funding patch “to allow for productive conversations to continue.” Some synthetic cannabis products would be permanently banned in the meantime, the official added.
The administration lobbying has successfully swayed some Senate Republicans, such as Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said in an interview that “the White House has committed to me that they’re committed to regulate the industry.”
Republican Sen. Rand Paul of hemp-rich Kentucky said the issue came up “in a big way” during Senate Republicans’ private lunch meeting Wednesday. Paul said he spoke in support of delaying the ban and said those arguing for a delay “aren’t very rational.”
“They’re wanting to hold up the funding for the government over one month,” he said. “It’s kind of insane.”
Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.
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