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Capitol agenda: The shrinking Trump tax cuts

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The brutal political realities of the House GOP are about to upend President Donald Trump’s tax pledges.

A permanent extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts is under threat, as are a slew of second-term campaign promises, including exempting taxes on tips and overtime earnings and providing tax relief for seniors.

House Republicans are poised to disappoint Trump because they can’t agree on sufficient spending cuts to pay for his desired menu of tax policies under the GOP’s budget reconciliation plan. Speaker Mike Johnson told Republicans in a private meeting Thursday that he’s now targeting $4 trillion in tax cuts – a half-trillion less than many in the GOP had hoped.

It’s setting up a tough day for House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith. The Missouri Republican is set to meet with Trump Friday, as GOP leaders scramble to keep the tax package from unraveling. Republican lawmakers and aides have been signaling this week that some of Trump’s pledges will have to be temporary to make the budget math work. Johnson also plans to talk with Trump by phone later Friday about the megabill, including the tax piece.

The tensions are rising among House Republicans who see what’s coming.

“Democrats scare some of my members,” said House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington, who chided his colleagues Thursday for getting cold feet on spending cuts. “They paralyze our conference and, quite frankly, frighten us into inaction.”

Even so, some in the White House are relieved that Congress may hold off from deeper cuts to safety-net programs and are privately rooting for swing-district moderates to win out over hard-liners fighting to slash spending.

Some senior Republicans are downplaying Trump’s last-minute push this week to raise taxes on top earners, but it’s still threatening to stir up a bare-knuckle fight within the House GOP conference with precious time running out. People with direct knowledge of the discussions told Blue Light News it appeared to be more about messaging than raising money available in the budget reconciliation bill.

What we’re watching Friday: Be on the lookout for formal markup announcements as Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce and Agriculture try to move ahead with votes on all of these tough policy questions next week.

And look for further fallout from Thursday evening’s SALT spat. New York Republican Reps. Elise Stefanik, Andrew Garbarino, Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler said they’re rejecting a $30,000 cap to the state and local tax deduction, one number House Republicans are discussing. Johnson indicated there wasn’t yet a formal offer.

What else we’re watching:

— Crypto bill crashes: One of the GOP trifecta’s first major policy pushes is in flux after Senate Democrats derailed a long-awaited crypto bill in a procedural vote Thursday. They accused Republicans of moving to a vote too early, but key Senate Democrats said they’re willing to return to the negotiating table to reach a deal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune could bring the stablecoin regulatory framework back up in the coming days.

— The Library of Congress’ next chapter: Trump’s abrupt firing of Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden Thursday evening triggered intense backlash from top Democrats. Some are now calling for the librarian’s appointment to fall under Congress’ purview, rather than the president’s. Rep. Joe Morelle, the top Democrat on the House panel that oversees the library, plans to introduce legislation to that effect. We’ll see if any Republicans join.

— Duffy pitches air traffic overhaul: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is calling on Congress to give his agency cash to modernize the nation’s aging air traffic control systems. The former House member is pressing lawmakers to take action quickly so his agency can execute the plan in roughly three to four years. Expect senators to discuss Duffy’s proposal when Commerce Chair Ted Cruz holds a hearing on aviation safety and air traffic control next week.

Jasper Goodman, Benjamin Guggenheim, Chris Marquette, Meredith Lee Hill, Sam Ogozalek, Oriana Pawlyk, Katherine Tully-McManus and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.

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Congress

Capitol agenda: Summer exit eludes Senate

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Don’t expect the typically strong smell of Thursday jet fumes in the halls of the Senate just yet.

Ideally, senators would be leaving town for a five-week recess after business Thursday, but a legislative pile-up and pressure from President Donald Trump has made that impossible.

All 100 senators still need to agree to a deal to speed up consideration of a measure to extend government funding through Dec. 11, a Russia sanctions bill, dozens of nominees including Todd Blanche and a bipartisan college athletics bill — an agenda that would otherwise take weeks to accomplish.

Republicans also need to make a decision about whether they’re going to attempt to take an initial step on a third party-line spending bill, which includes election security measures Trump is demanding.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday evening the vibes were “starting to pick up” in terms of a deal taking shape. But he cautioned on jet fumes:

“You’re not going to be smelling those anytime real soon. …We’ve obviously got, like I said, a stack of stuff to do,” he said.

While Thune hasn’t ruled out taking up a budget blueprint for the GOP bill, he said it was “hard to say at this point” if the votes were there.

However senators are eyeing an exit strategy to allow Republicans to leave town while giving Trump a small win by taking up his elections measure. With that option, Republicans would bring up legislation related to the SAVE America Act instead of advancing a budget resolution, three people granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions said.

Thune said it “remains to be seen” whether that’s enough for hard-liners who have threatened to oppose leaving town without a vote on it.

Also still in limbo is Trump’s attorney general pick Blanche, who met Wednesday with GOP holdouts Sens. Bill Cassidy and Lisa Murkowski. Neither said afterward how they would vote on the nomination — and Blanche needs to secure at least one of their votes.

Government funding legislation is also stuck in the pile-up, with Republicans grappling with intraparty wrangling over hemp language. And an agreement to speed up consideration of the Russia sanctions measure is also in limbo as Democrats work through concerns in their ranks about it.

And Democrats are waiting for smoke signals from Republicans on whether they’ll force them to vote on cryptocurrency legislation that many of them currently oppose (more on that below). Dems are eager to avoid taking that vote ahead of the recess, potentially fueling tens of millions of dollars of campaign spending by industry allies.

What else we’re watching: 

— JOHNSON BULLISH ON SPEAKERSHIP: Mike Johnson said he is planning to remain speaker if House Republicans hold onto the House — but didn’t weigh in on his future plans if Democrats flip the majority. “I don’t have to answer that question because we’re gonna win,” Johnson told Dasha Burns on Tuesday in an interview for Blue Light News’s The Conversation. “I’m gonna remain speaker of the House,” he added. Johnson would face difficult political headwinds to stay on as minority leader if Democrats take back the chamber, but he dodged on the topic, reiterating his optimism.

— FARM BILL OUTLOOK DIMS: Agriculture ranking member Amy Klobuchar is signaling she’ll oppose the GOP-led farm bill up for a markup Thursday, likely scuttling chances it’ll advance. At issue is a provision to delay requirements that states pay for part of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Agriculture Chair John Boozman has offered a one-year delay while Democrats are asking for two years. The nutrition aid requirements were passed as part of the GOP’s megabill last summer. Boozman needs to win support from at least one Democrat to advance the bill out of committee given Sen. Mitch McConnell’s prolonged absence.

Jordain Carney, Mia McCarthy and Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.

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Senate’s summer pileup is threatening a quick recess escape

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Ideally, the Senate would be adjourning for a five-week break in less than 24 hours.

Instead, Republican senators are still navigating what Majority Leader John Thune described as a “train wreck” as they face a pileup of legislation, key nominations and public pressure from President Donald Trump and angry conservatives to show progress on a GOP election bill Trump views as his “No. 1 priority.”

They’re heading into Thursday — when the scent of jet fumes typically starts wafting through the halls of Congress — without a deal that would let them speed up votes on a government funding bill or long-stalled Russia sanctions bill.

Meanwhile, Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination is still stuck in limbo after he came to the Capitol Wednesday for a roughly hourlong meeting with two key Republican holdouts.

That said, the general outlines of a deal that would allow senators to quickly get out of Washington and onto the campaign trail has started taking shape, even as senators and aides acknowledged they might have to stick around at least a little bit longer than they’d hoped.

“Don’t kill the vibe — it’s starting to pick up,” Thune said in an interview, while cautioning that “you’re not going to be smelling those [jet fumes] anytime real soon. … We’ve obviously got, like I said, a stack of stuff to do.”

One key issue Republicans haven’t yet settled is a new party-line spending bill that would pump billions of dollars into the Pentagon, to ailing farmers and into some elections-related spending that could take some of the Trump-fueled pressure off — even as several people with knowledge of the discussions said the votes aren’t there.

Thune hasn’t formally ruled out taking up a budget blueprint for the GOP bill, saying Wednesday it was “hard to say at this point” if he had the votes. But he indicated there was progress behind the scenes toward an exit strategy that would allow Republicans to start their recess with minimal internal friction.

“There’s not clarity, but it’s getting less cloudy if you put it that way,” Thune said.

Three people granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions said that endgame would not involve the time-consuming process of advancing a budget, but instead calling up a vote related to the SAVE America Act, the Trump-backed elections bill.

Republican leaders are hoping that holding a vote on the elections proposal, at the Senate’s usual 60-vote threshold for legislation, will let them hammer Democrats as the holdup while satisfying Republicans who have been frustrated over the lack of progress and have threatened to oppose leaving town.

“We’re looking at options there,” Thune said about possible SAVE America-related votes.

He added that it “remains to be seen” if that would be enough to placate Trump-allied rabble-rousers, “but we’ve had a number of conversations now about how we get the votes people feel are necessary.”

A key MAGA ally, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, posted a social media video Wednesday thanking Thune, saying that the conversation has moved in a “favorable direction” and that Republicans were discussing “what procedural vehicle to use in order to get this thing done.”

Thune has several other obstacles to clear besides the SAVE America fight.

Senators want an agreement that would let them extend government funding into mid-December, pass a sanctions bill targeting Russia in honor of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, confirm dozens of Trump nominees, including Blanche, and start work on a bipartisan college sports bill.

The highest drama surrounds Blanche, who met Wednesday with GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Neither said afterward how they would vote on his nomination. With Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and every Democrat expected to oppose Blanche, and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) out for health reasons, he will need to win support from at least one of the two.

The legislative targets have issues, too: Republicans are grappling with intraparty wrangling over hemp language included in the stopgap bill, and Democrats are working through concerns in their ranks about the sanctions bill.

They also want to know if Republicans are going to force them to take a vote on cryptocurrency legislation that many Democrats currently oppose. They are eager to avoid taking that vote ahead of the recess as bipartisan talks happen behind the scenes — especially because a failed vote could potentially fuel tens of millions of dollars of campaign spending against Democratic opponents by industry allies.

Democrats are also looking for signals from Republicans about whether they will move forward with the party-line budget plan. But it was clear by Wednesday afternoon that major obstacles remained.

One GOP senator said Wednesday evening that “there won’t be the votes to do reconciliation and that will simplify things” for the rest of the schedule.

At a Senate GOP lunch meeting, Budget Chair Ron Johnson of Wisconsin presented his ideas for the budget blueprint. It would closely mirror a version that the House advanced last month, but it would also instruct a host of new committees to help draft the bill — expanding the range of issues Democrats could force vulnerable GOP incumbents to take tough votes on just months before the midterms.

Besides ongoing intra-GOP disputes about the amount of Pentagon funding to include and whether to offset the spending with cuts elsewhere, Thune is dealing with senators who aren’t convinced that they should force the issue just months before voters cast ballots.

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who described himself as a “lean no” on the budget, said his views were being influenced by wanting to protect vulnerable colleagues.

“There’s only like five members of my conference that I care about. and they’re the ones who are running in at-risk states,” he said.

Asked if he would vote “no” to protect them, Tillis added, “I’m going to support my members who are up for election. They’re the most important priority right now.”

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Trump urges GOP senators to back off hemp ban

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President Donald Trump and top White House officials are privately lobbying Republican senators to delay a ban on intoxicating hemp that’s set to kick in this fall.

At the Trump administration’s urging, the government funding patch the Senate is working to pass this week would push off the forthcoming ban of some cannabis products derived from hemp. But several Republican senators are demanding a vote to strip the delay out and let that prohibition kick in come November.

They’re hearing from the White House about it.

Trump called Sen. Ted Budd on Tuesday night, after the North Carolina Republican filed an amendment to ensure the ban kicks in as mandated on Nov. 12, according to a Senate aide granted anonymity to describe the private discussion. On the call, the president discussed creating a federal regulatory framework for hemp but did not ask Budd to withdraw his amendment, the individual added.

“I’ve been asked by lots of people to stand down on this amendment,” Budd told reporters Wednesday.

Budd noted that the Trump administration has had almost nine months to come up with a plan for implementing the ban.

“So why all of a sudden pop up for some seemingly innocent delay?” he asked, accusing the White House of instead preparing to “jam this on some must-pass” funding package at year’s end to further delay the prohibition.

A White House official granted anonymity to discuss the private debate said the Trump administration is seeking “a modest four-week delay” through the Dec. 11 expiration of the funding patch “to allow for productive conversations to continue.” Some synthetic cannabis products would be permanently banned in the meantime, the official added.

The administration lobbying has successfully swayed some Senate Republicans, such as Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said in an interview that “the White House has committed to me that they’re committed to regulate the industry.”

Republican Sen. Rand Paul of hemp-rich Kentucky said the issue came up “in a big way” during Senate Republicans’ private lunch meeting Wednesday. Paul said he spoke in support of delaying the ban and said those arguing for a delay “aren’t very rational.”

“They’re wanting to hold up the funding for the government over one month,” he said. “It’s kind of insane.”

Grace Yarrow contributed to this report.

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