Congress

Megabill debt warnings fall on deaf ears inside the GOP

Published

1 year ago

June 18, 2025

Senate Republicans are fielding mounting warnings from economists that their signature legislation would add trillions of dollars to the deficit. It appears to be the last thing on their minds.

As Senate Majority Leader John Thune prepares to jam through the GOP’s sprawling border, energy and tax package to President Donald Trump’s desk, fellow Republicans are largely ignoring a host of reports warning that their bill would worsen the nation’s fiscal trajectory in a serious way.

They’re instead relying on estimates from the White House that assume vastly greater economic growth than virtually every other economic model — while trashing the credibility of Congress’ nonpartisan budget scorer, the Congressional Budget Office, which said on Tuesday that the House-passed border, energy and tax bill would add around $2.8 trillion to the deficit over a decade.

“It’s a model. And obviously, they’ve been famously wrong before,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) of the latest CBO report. “We do have more debt now than we had before, for sure, but I think they grossly underestimate the economic benefits.”

The problem highlighted by CBO and other economists is this: While the GOP’s tax cuts may provide some economic growth, they will likely not juice the economy as much as when Republicans first enacted Trump’s tax cuts in 2017. On the flip side, with federal debt closing in on $37 trillion, the rising costs of servicing more expensive interest payments will far outweigh any additional revenue that is generated from increased economic growth.

“The economic and fiscal state is not what it was in 2017,” said Paul Winfree, president and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, who was previously a top economic official in the first Trump administration. Winfree added in a text message that “the stock of debt is so large that anything we do to modestly increase productivity (and growth) without reducing spending … will lead to higher costs.”

That was underscored Tuesday when CBO put a number this week to the warning economists have been making for months: that the GOP package would hike interest rates and in turn increase borrowing costs.

Higher interest rates would boost payments on the national debt by an estimated $440 billion over a decade, CBO predicted, while the megabill would drive yearly economic growth of just 0.5 percent on average during that time. House Republican leaders are claiming the bill would generate $2.5 trillion by banking on total average growth of 2.6 percent.

That finding prompted an unusual phenomenon. Usually tax-cutting bills tend to cost less under so-called “dynamic” scores that include economic effects. Not so here: The $2.8 trillion figure released Tuesday outstripped the CBO’s prior $2.4 trillion estimate that did not include economic analysis — mostly attributable to the fact that, in their words, the bill “would increase interest rates.”

Lack of recognition of the dynamic has upset at least one Republican, Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, who dropped his own report Wednesday illustrating that the GOP’s megabill has little shot of bending the deficit trajectory downward, even in the rosiest of economic circumstances.

Johnson, who said he will vote against the massive tax and spending package as it’s currently written, is challenging his colleagues in the Senate and in the administration to show him where he’s wrong.

“The whole point of laying out the report was to get everyone to acknowledge and admit reality,” Johnson told reporters. “Nobody’s pushed back on my numbers. Here’s an opportunity to do it. … I’ve shown people my work. Who else has shown people work?”

But Thune took to the Senate floor on Wednesday to argue that the party-line megabill would generate enough revenue — around $4.1 trillion — through economic growth to completely make up for the deficit impact from the reduced revenue, citing a report from the White House’s Council for Economic Advisors that asserts the bill would lead to long-run GDP growth of up to 3.5 percent.

Thune added that CBO “characteristically, I should say, underestimates the economic growth, and hence the revenue, that this bill would provide.”

The White House figures are outliers compared with other economic models. The conservative-leaning Tax Foundation found, for instance, that the GOP’s plan would boost economic growth by 0.8 percent in the long-run but still, on a dynamic basis and after $1.5 trillion in net spending cuts, add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over 10 years.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that the bill would spur economic growth of 0.4 percent over 10 years and add $3.2 trillion to the deficit over a decade, all things considered.

Kyle Pomerleau of the American Enterprise Institute called the White House estimates “outrageous” and “way higher than everyone else’s.” He said the in-house analysis takes into account tax incentives, like those for domestic manufacturing, that didn’t end up in the bill that passed the House in May.

“They just say that, ‘well, the individual income tax — that’s going to make people work more and that’s it,’” he said. “But it misses so many different details of the actual reform itself.”

Democrats say voters will notice if the GOP package becomes a drag on the economy rather than the boon Republicans are marketing. Reiterating a claim party leaders often voice, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said the 2017 tax bill “ended up being a stone” around Republicans’ neck “that helped lead to their bloodletting” in the 2018 midterms.

“At some point they have to look at all this new information and decide to stop and go back to the drawing board,” Murphy said in a brief interview. “Because what they’re designing is not going to help our economy and is going to hurt a ton of people.”

The release of the CBO report comes as Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) fields requests from several of his GOP colleagues to scale back changes to taxes that fund Medicaid and cuts to green energy credits. Crapo has been also pushing to use an accounting maneuver known as a current policy baseline, which would effectively zero out the cost of around $3.8 trillion in tax cut extensions.

It would allow Senate Republicans to make Trump’s tax cuts permanent without having to offset much of their deficit impact, which would otherwise be required by the Senate’s budget rules.

Asked for his reaction to the new CBO report, Crapo said he has “the same reaction I’ve always had” to the official scorekeeper’s numbers: “They’re not using the right baseline, and they aren’t analyzing it dynamically.”

Jordain Carney, Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

Congress

Alito says he won’t retire during lame duck session

Published

4 hours ago

October 6, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito said he plans to stay on the court through next year, brushing aside speculation that he could retire early and let President Donald Trump fill his seat after the election but before a new Congress is sworn in next year.

“I intend to stick around through this term,” Alito, 76, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “I made that decision many months ago.”

The Supreme Court began its new term on Monday, which will last through next June.

Alito, the second-oldest justice on the bench, was in the news last week after telling CBS News that he considered retiring this year and will do so again in 2027.

His comments come as the fight over control of the Senate is in a dead heat. Democrats would have to flip at least four seats, but recent polls show several races, including in states Trump carried easily two years ago, remain competitive.

Several Senate Democratic candidates are already running on the prospect of filling a seat on the Supreme Court or, at least, denying Trump’s ability to do so. Senate Republicans successfully blocked a Democratic nominee in 2016, allowing Trump to fill the seat after he came into the White House.

“Our race to decide Ohio’s next Senator could not only determine control of the U.S. Senate, but also who fills a lifetime seat on the highest court in the land,” Sherrod Brown, the Democratic nominee in Ohio, wrote in a blog post Monday. “Ohio’s next senator could be our first line of defense against another partisan Supreme Court Justice — or rubber stamp a Trump nominee.”

Congress

Capitol agenda: Thune and Trump plot GOP money wave

Published

7 hours ago

October 6, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

John Thune has money on his mind in the final stretch before the midterms.

The Senate majority leader, in an exclusive conversation Monday with Blue Light News on the campaign trail, said funding for Republicans has dominated his recent conversations with President Donald Trump and his staff as the party tries to divvy up its spending to hold onto seats in closer-than-expected races while picking up spots in other states.

“I think the president is sincerely interested in trying to do whatever he can to help the team,” Thune said. “You know, some of the states have gotten very expensive.”

Thune’s focus highlights the emerging story defining the 2026 midterms: Is there enough Republican money, and can it be spent fast enough to counter surging Democratic campaigns and a lackluster national environment for the GOP?

Thune was at a news conference Monday with Senate GOP candidate Michele Tafoya in Minnesota — a state where the party increasingly sees a pickup opportunity after Democrats nominated progressive Peggy Flanagan.

Minnesota is one possible state where Trump could deploy his $400 million war chest, Thune said. But he was vague when asked about Republicans’ potential commitment to the race. He named Michigan and New Hampshire as other GOP pickup opportunities.

Republicans are simultaneously having to play defense in a growing list of red states, like Iowa, Kansas and Alaska. And the Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund recently pulled back spending in North Carolina — essentially surrendering a GOP-held seat to Democrats — while increasing its spending in Kansas.

Thune referred to the super PAC’s North Carolina decision as a “pause” in financial support.

And then there’s Texas, where Republicans are deploying hundreds of millions of dollars as they struggle to drag GOP nominee Ken Paxton over the finish line. Thune said “dedicated donors” focused on Texas have prevented the need to siphon funding away from other states.

Thune declined Monday to put odds on the GOP’s chances of keeping Senate control, but repeated, “I think we can keep the majority.”

The results may carry personal stakes for him, as he is expected to run for leader again. And while no other senator has raised their hand against him, some conservatives have questioned whether Trump would publicly turn on Thune if Republicans lose.

“I can’t control that,” Thune said, adding that the Republican conference would ultimately make the decision. “What the president does or doesn’t do … you just move forward and let the chips fall where they may.”

What else we’re watching:

— THUNE CHECKS TRUMP’S DAYLIGHT SAVING ZEAL — Thune also said Monday there is no “consensus” yet on Congress establishing permanent daylight saving time — even as Trump ramps up pressure to pass it. “The president feels strongly on it like he does a lot of issues,” Thune said. “It’s something we’re having conversations about, but there’s no clear path forward or consensus on it yet.” Thune also made clear that while Trump singled out Sen. Tom Cotton for scrutiny, opposition to the bill — which would lead to late winter sunrises in some parts of the country — runs deeper than one senator.

— BUCKS FOR BABIES PLAN DRAWS MURRAY IRE — Top Democratic appropriator Patty Murray is blasting a Trump administration plan to reward communities with high birth and marriage rates with a bigger share of federal transit money. “Tying funding for transit projects to marriage rates and how many babies a woman has is the sort of bizarre and dystopian idea you’d expect in a TV show, not actual policy put forth by the U.S. government — yet here we are,” Murray said in a statement. The Federal Transit Administration wants to revamp a multibillion-dollar program that helps state and local authorities fund infrastructure projects such as rail improvements and new bus lanes. The agency opened public feedback on the plan this month.

Jordain Carney and Sam Ogozalek contributed to this report.

Congress

John Thune has money on his mind

Published

10 hours ago

October 6, 2026

Blue Light Newsroom

LE SUEUR, Minnesota — The word on John Thune’s mind these days is “resources.”

In the Senate majority leader’s recollection, it was a dominant topic in his recent conversations with President Donald Trump, including at a recent visit to the White House, not to mention in his frequent conversation with Trump’s political team — and in an exclusive conversation with Blue Light News Monday during a Midwest campaign swing.

“I think the president is sincerely interested in trying to do whatever he can to help the team,” Thune said about his midterm conversations with the president and his advisers. “I also share with him, too, the importance of just the resources in some of these states. You know, some of the states have gotten very expensive.”

As Trump focuses on turning out his own voters — a message the president is taking into his own hands in a series of preelection rallies — Thune is making sure he also has money on his mind: “I … just conveyed to him the importance of ensuring that our candidates are well-resourced.”

Thune’s focus underscores the emerging question defining the 2026 midterms: Is there enough Republican money, and can it be spent fast enough, to counter surging Democratic campaigns and a lackluster national environment for the GOP?

It’s a narrative both sides largely agree on — Thune’s Democratic counterpart, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said as much last week — even as each leader insists his side will prevail.

Thune declined Monday to put odds on the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the Senate but said repeatedly, “I think we can keep the majority.”

“I think all of these races are margin of error, at least the ones that we have to win,” he added. “And historically, at least if you look at polls, we tend to outperform them.”

Unlike Schumer, who is keeping a low profile in October and focusing on private fundraising, Thune is barnstorming the country — visiting a mix of deep-red and battleground states.

Minnesota was not expected to be in play for Republicans when Thune took over as leader nearly two years ago. Democratic incumbent Sen. Tina Smith had a clear path to reelection in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2002.

But Smith chose to retire, and Democrats nominated an unabashed progressive, Peggy Flanagan, who is now facing Michele Tafoya, the well-known former sportscaster, in November. Recent public polls have shown the race in single digits, and Thune was not shy about including it alongside Michigan and New Hampshire as a GOP pickup opportunity.

Mentioning Minnesota is one thing, but investing in it is another, and national groups affiliated with Thune have not made major investments in the state so far. Standing next to Thune at a news conference Monday, Tafoya made the case for that to change.

“We have had three or four straight weeks of really solid polls,” she said. “This is one worth investing in. We are right there.”

But they both kept things vague when asked about Washington Republicans’ potential commitment to the race — including how much cash would be necessary to overcome 24 years of futility and a bad political environment.

Both Thune and Tafoya used the same words to answer that question: “We haven’t had that conversation.”

Thune put the party’s spending decisions into a larger context: “If the president is looking for places where he can make a difference … we’re in touch on a daily basis with his team and hopefully they will — as they already have — continue to help us leverage the resources that we’ve got to bring to bear to get the best possible impact and outcome in these key states.”

Thune pointed to Minnesota as one possible state where Trump could choose to deploy his $400-million-plus war chest. But the tiny national footprint in the Gopher State pales next to the hundreds of millions of dollars being spent in Texas — an expensive state Thune and Trump continue to discuss as Republicans struggle to drag Senate nominee Ken Paxton over the finish line.

Asked about the super-sized investments there, Thune declined to connect the massive spending on Paxton to tough decisions elsewhere on the map. “Dedicated donors” focused on Texas, he said, have meant GOP groups haven’t yet had to siphon funding away from other key states.

But the tough decisions are nevertheless underway. As Republican candidates play defense in a growing list of red states, the Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund recently pulled back spending in North Carolina — essentially surrendering a GOP-held seat to Democrats — while increasing its spending in Kansas.

Thune referred to the decision as a “pause” in financial support for nominee Michael Whatley.

The reasons for the political headwinds were on display Monday at an agriculture-focused roundtable, where Thune and Tafoya heard about the impact of Trump’s trade war with Canada, the president’s decision to import foreign beef and the high diesel prices that followed his decision to attack Iran.

Thune, a South Dakotan fluent in farm-state politics, touted Tafoya as someone who could help address some of those concerns by being a “great voice on issues like agriculture” if she makes it to the Senate.

His broader message in the interview, however, was to cast the midterm election as “choice” between the two parties rather than a referendum on the Iran war and the ensuing spike in energy prices. Democrats want “more spending,” “higher costs,” and “open borders,” he said, while Republicans had put “more money in your pockets” with their 2025 tax bill.

“Iran is temporary,” he said. “It will be behind us. Gas prices are going to come down, so who do you want to invest in for the next two years, four years?”

The midterm results carry personal stakes for Thune, who is expected to run for leader again in internal Senate GOP elections that are expected to take place just days after the midterms, regardless of the outcome.

Thune remains well-liked within the Senate GOP conference, and no other senator has raised his or her hand to run against him. But some conservatives, in and out of the Senate, have privately questioned whether Trump would publicly turn on Thune if Republicans lose their majority.

Asked about that possibility, Thune said, “I can’t control that.” He added that “the Republican conference” would ultimately make the decision.

“What the president does or doesn’t do … you just move forward and let the chips fall where they may,” he said. “All I can say is, I’m with him and his team to do the things I think are good for the future of the country.”

When Blue Light News pointed out Trump defended Thune at last month’s GOP midterm convention after some in the crowd booed the mention of his name, he laughed.

“Yeah, I know,” he said. “It’s the little things, right?”