Congress
Kathy Hochul is trying to hold the center in a disruptive political age
ALBANY, New York — In a time of massive political upheaval, Gov. Kathy Hochul is selling herself as a conventional politician.
Thrust into the job five years ago, Hochul is running for a second full term without the baggage of Andrew Cuomo, her scandal-scarred predecessor. She has a package of policy wins to tout — like banning cellphones in schools, no-cost child care and an effort to lower car insurance rates. A prodigious fundraiser, Hochul also has a mammoth cash advantage over her Republican rival, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Yet there are nagging worries among New York Democrats.
Frustrated voters are rejecting incumbents and establishment-backed candidates. An ascendant left is putting centrist Democrats on their back foot and providing a convenient foil for Republicans to exploit. Sweeping affordability woes and the perception that people are less financially secure than prior generations are driving voters to embrace populist, charismatic candidates.
And then there’s New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has formed a steady, pragmatic relationship with the governor, but is nevertheless highly polarizing to moderate Jewish voters and the business community. Blakeman has sought to leverage that by frequently blaming both Hochul and Mamdani for crime and high taxes.
Ratcheting up the pressure is Hochul’s need to perform well at the top of the ticket and help push down-ballot Democrats over the finish line, including those in moderate suburban enclaves. Success would enable the governor to reverse the perception — stoked by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi four years ago — that her 2022 campaign’s weak showing against Republican Lee Zeldin kept the House in GOP hands.
Hochul’s campaign referred Blue Light News to an ally, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, for comment.
“Voters are increasingly calling BS on the sort of typical politicians and the establishment is not delivering,” he said. “The reason why Gov. Hochul is in such a strong position is because she’s so ruthlessly focused on delivering and she has delivered.”
New York is home to a handful of contested House districts that will potentially determine which party controls the chamber and the course of President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Those stakes have led Hochul to significantly expand the New York Democratic Party’s infrastructure — long a political fiefdom solely meant to aid a governor — to support local candidates.
To win reelection by a comfortable margin — her supporters believe it should be by at least 10 points — Hochul must hold together an increasingly fraught Democratic coalition, riven by debates over socialism, Israel and how aggressively to fight Trump.
“Kathy Hochul has prided herself on being a mom governor and you see those motherly attributes coming out in how she runs the government,” said former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, a Hochul ally. “She’s someone who keeps all the balls in the air at one time, but simultaneously unites everybody. It’s about the grind and moving forward. It’s not about giving grand speeches or winning over the media with flashiness — it’s about getting it done.”
Hochul, a 68-year-old moderate who has spent much of her professional life in elected office, would appear to be an unlikely fit for this tumultuous moment. The mild mannered Buffalo-native does not lean on bombast. And she can appear purposefully hokey, like in her recent video with actor Kevin Bacon to promote the repeal of an anti-dancing regulation in bars.
This sedate public persona hasn’t lit voters aflame. A Siena Research Institute survey last month found her drawing only 49 percent of the vote to Blakeman’s 39 percent. Just 48 percent of voters in this deep blue state have a favorable view of her, even as many of her policies — like attempts to curb Trump’s deportation campaign and a data center moratorium — are popular.
Republicans want to capitalize on her so-so polling and persistent voter fears over public safety. They have hammered the governor over the cost of living in a deeply expensive state, blaming her for rising utility costs. Blakeman’s light-on-policy campaign has pledged to cut utility bills in half and significantly reduce taxes without explaining how he would accomplish either task.
The 70-year-old Republican nominee has hugged Trump tightly during the campaign, showing no daylight with the president even as gas prices have soared due to the war in Iran and upstate farmers have decried the impact of his tariff regime. Blakeman hosted Trump at an August campaign-style rally in which Republican speakers blasted Democrats over public safety with cheering police officers behind them.
Hochul’s campaign is eagerly highlighting the Trump-Blakeman dynamic: One of her first TV ads concludes with Blakeman declaring “peace, love and Donald Trump.”
“Everyone wants to talk about individual issues, but this is still an election on where Donald Trump stands with voters in New York — whether Democrats perceive the governor will be a voice in opposition to Donald trump or if Bruce Blakeman is going to be in lockstep with his policies,” said Jay Martin, a strategist who is working on a pro-Hochul super PAC. “That’s really the question that’s going to be answered.”
Blakeman is considered by Republicans to be their best bet to bolster down-ballot GOP candidates, especially on bellwether Long Island, where Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen are trying to hold their suburban swing seats. Blakeman has touted his ability to twice win purplish Nassau County, where Mamdani remains a deep concern for suburban voters. Those vulnerable House Democrats, as well as upstate congressional contender Blake Gendebien, have kept Hochul at arm’s length — an indication they believe her presence would hurt their chances of winning.
The Republican’s campaign, meanwhile, has eagerly laced into Mamdani and his alliance with Hochul. Blakeman has churned out videos produced with artificial intelligence depicting a smiling mayor and governor walking together. He pledged to repeal a surcharge on costly second homes in New York City that was proposed by Hochul and enthusiastically cheered by Mamdani.
And Blakeman slammed the governor for appearing at an Islamic cultural center in a head scarf, calling her “Hijab Hochul.”
“Less than two weeks before the 25th anniversary of 9/11, this kind of political pandering is especially tone-deaf,” he posted on X.
(Hochul’s campaign was quick to amplify that Blakeman appeared in religious garb while attending a Sikh center.)
After Trump posted about the hard scarf photo, Hochul responded: “I’ll never apologize for treating people of any faith with dignity, no matter how Islamophobic you and your enablers are.”
While significantly lagging the governor in fundraising, Blakeman has deep-pocketed allies, including New York Knicks owner James Dolan, the top donor to a super PAC supporting the GOP nominee’s bid. And Republicans believe there is a path, given the Democratic Party’s factionalism and voters’ affordability woes that have proven troublesome to incumbents.
“He needs to raise more money to do the traditional ways of introducing him as a viable alternative to Kathy Hochul — I think he is, but obviously money is the next star that has to align,” former Republican Rep. Tom Reed said. “He doesn’t have to match her one to one. The path is aligning itself.”
Blakeman will also need to win over pockets of voters who have traditionally supported Democrats — moderates who are uncomfortable with the party’s leftward drift in the Trump 2.0 era and continue to be concerned with the cost of living. And while Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2006, public polling this year shows independent voters are consistently disgruntled with the direction of the state.
“The traditional red-versus-blue analysis is going out the door,” Reed said. “You saw Trump tap in with the African-American vote, the trades — it’s a reflection of that,” Reed said. “It’s an opportunity for those of the silent majority that are just sick and tired of the status quo, big party bosses, they think they can just phone it in and not listen to the people of New York.”
But Zeldin’s 2022 bid — conducted in the middle of Joe Biden’s single-term presidency — still had trouble making sufficient in-roads in Democratic-dominated New York City.
Mamdani’s successful mayoral campaign last year signaled a different kind of political realignment. He knit together a coalition of mostly young voters upset with costs and highly skeptical of establishment politicians like his main opponent, Cuomo.
But Mamdani’s rise has also unnerved New York’s large Jewish population. Business leaders have been uneasy with his unapologetic battle cry to raise taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. And he has struggled to win over older Black and Latino voters — people who’ve traditionally been the backbone of the New York Democratic Party.
The governor sidestepped what stood to be a divisive primary fight when Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado dropped his long-shot bid after Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed her reelection. Hochul’s team purposefully declined to directly attack Delgado — a strategic decision that helped keep the party together. She’s been able to work well with the mayor, forgoing the historic tensions that arise between governors and mayors. Unlike some moderate Democrats, Hochul has not excoriated the hard left in her party while making clear she disagrees with them on issues like Israel and hiking taxes.
Hochul told Blue Light News in August that she expects Mamdani will be “helpful” to her campaign. But it’s an open question as to whether the mayor’s supporters can be sufficiently marshaled to support his Albany ally. At the same time, Hochul must delicately thread a needle to ensure that she does not alienate those within her own coalition who are disquieted by Mamdani’s success.
“Mamdani is a double-edged sword for the governor,” said Evan Thies, a Democratic strategist and former political adviser to ex-Mayor Eric Adams. “The numbers show he can turn out Democratic voters for her in the city — but also that he can hurt her elsewhere.”
Congress
Democrats want Mullin in the hotseat in the next Congress
A top priority for Democrats if they get more power in Congress in November: Forcing the Trump administration’s controversial and unpopular immigration crackdown back in the headlines.
And one of the people they plan to go after hard is Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin — the former lawmaker who was brought into the role in part because he was seen as someone who could play well with Congress, unlike former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.
A House Democratic aide said that committees plan to look at how DHS under Mullin has failed to deploy body cameras to many immigration agents, allowed dismal conditions at immigration facilities and failed to cooperate with the department’s Inspector General.
“He owns that,” the aide emphasized. They were granted anonymity to speak freely about evolving legislative preparations ahead of November.
Other Democrats plan to take him to task over the Oct. 12 ICE raid on the D.C. residence of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.).
Even if Democrats are only able to issue subpoenas and produce reports, that could be enough to force DHS back into the headlines — undermining a major goal of Mullin’s: Keeping unpopular immigration enforcement operations away from public attention.
That would likely worsen the political pains the White House is experiencing on immigration. Voters in both parties have soured on the president’s ambitious immigration crackdown after a series of controversies, including the deaths of several American citizens following encounters with immigration officers.
“We will investigate the administration weaponizing DHS against Americans, its out-of-control immigration policies, and its blatantly corrupt self-dealing. The American people expect nothing less, and we will deliver,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who is poised to chair the House Homeland Security Committee in the next Congress.
While Democrats want to investigate the full breadth of the Trump administration’s immigration policies, including changes to immigration courts and efforts to throttle legal immigration to the United States, multiple aides and lawmakers told Blue Light News that much of the action on Capitol Hill will center around deportations that appear to have happened without due process, aggressive practices in arrests and conditions at detentions facilities.
Democrats also plan to review how DHS has spent a historic influx of funds from a series of reconciliation bills — including controversial purchases of jets for use by Noem, warehouses intended to operate as detention facilities and other department acquisitions that may have benefitted administration allies.
As part of this push, they plan to also pull in a raft of lower-level and former officials for testimony.
At a Monday press conference in Long Beach, California, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, stressed that investigations into “abuses of ICE and DHS” will rank high among committee priorities — alongside investigations into the Trump family’s business dealings, disgraced deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and “corporate corruption.”
“What has been happening is horrific,” Garcia said. “But folks like Stephen MIller, Donald Trump and the horrific people they have in power to do this harm think they can get away with frankly these crimes and this inhumanity … you will be held accountable, you will be held investigated.”
“There is no moving forward without justice,” he added.
Other potential House committee chairs are also homing in on immigration enforcement as a top area for immediate congressional oversight after the midterms. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, as well as the House and Senate Judiciary committees also have jurisdiction over immigration operations. Aides say the incoming chairs of all of these committees are planning on working together to conduct oversight of DHS.
“This is a team sport,” said the House Democratic aide. “One of the Democratic campaign’s overwhelming themes has been accountability, and committees have an appetite to do more oversight work. So this is going to be a multicommittee effort.”
That said, the number of committees that are planning immigration investigations could result in a morass of similar probes if House Democratic leadership fails to manage committee chairs with differing priorities and personal styles. Republicans already experienced this during the Biden administration, when the chairs of the House Judiciary and Oversight committees did not clearly coordinate in their oversight of immigration policy and often held similar hearings with limited results.
Much of Democrats’ final approach will depend on the outcome of the midterm elections. While it is expected that Democrats will retake control of the House, if they also take back the Senate they could exert even more pressure on the administration by throttling the confirmation of nominees and leverage more resources for investigations.
But even just Democratic control of the House, which is seen in Washington as an all but certain outcome, would give Democratic committee chairs the ability to issue subpoenas for administration officials to testify before their committees and produce documents of import for committee investigations. The House could also always move to impeach the president and other top officials, though Democrats across the party’s ideological divides have for now ruled out a third impeachment of Trump, since it would likely fail to secure enough Republican Senate votes to result in his removal from office.
In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security said that “political attacks will not deter DHS from carrying out its lawful mission.”
“Congressional oversight should not be used as a vehicle to obstruct the department’s ability to secure the border, remove dangerous criminal aliens, disrupt transnational criminal organizations, and defend the homeland,” DHS added.
House Democrats also plan to focus on Noem’s tenure. Garcia confirmed in an interview on MS Now last week that his committee will be scrutinizing her tenure, even though she and former DHS adviser Corey Lewandowski have both left the department.
But many Democratic lawmakers are incensed about actions taken under Mullin’s tenure, including the raid on Omar’s residence.
“We are going to drag Markwayne Mullin into the Judiciary committee and give him the full Jack Smith treatment as a result of these raids,” Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee, said in an interview earlier this month on MSNow, referring to the former special counsel who led federal prosecutions against Trump.
Her comments indicate that some Democratic lawmakers want to make a spectacle out of Mullin. Republicans regularly dragged Smith to testify before congressional committees as they sought to tar investigations into the president’s alleged criminal conduct.
Democrats are also eager to use their subpoena and investigative powers to compel testimony from White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, who wields considerable influence over the administration’s immigration policy, and border czar Tom Homan, who is accused of taking a cash bribe from a major government contractor.
White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said in a statement that “Democrats have no agenda to improve the lives of Americans — their only agenda is to continue to demonize ICE law enforcement and continue their decade long witch hunt against President Trump and his administration.”
Homan has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.
Oversight work is a hallmark of divided government, especially since the party in control of Congress is often unlikely to secure presidential support for major pieces of messaging legislation. But parties have at times squandered those opportunities.
Committees are trying to put resources in place ahead of the elections to speed up this work, since investigations inherently take time as staff interview witnesses and pursue relevant documents and records. As the midterm elections approach, Democrats poised to lead committees with relevant jurisdiction over the Department of Homeland Security have begun staffing up in anticipation of a change in control of Congress.
New Hampshire Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan, is poised to take the gavel of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee should her party prevail in November. Hassan, who already began probing contracting decisions at DHS from her more limited perch as the top Democratic senator on the Joint Economic Commission, is hiring staff and preparing to continue her oversight work atop the Senate Homeland Security panel in the next Congress.
For now, House Democrats — mainly Garcia and Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who is poised to take over the Judiciary Committee — are vowing they will coordinate their efforts and work together.
“We view this as a responsibility that belongs to every committee and every member of congress … this is just an overwhelming mountain of corruption and authoritarianism that we face,” Raskin said.
Congress
John Barrasso to campaign with Ken Paxton
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso will campaign with Ken Paxton next week in Texas as Republicans work overtime to try to hold onto the endangered seat.
Barrasso said in an interview that he plans to join a bus tour with Paxton, who is locked in a tossup battle with Democrat James Talarico despite Donald Trump carrying Texas by roughly 14 percentage points two years ago.
The No. 2 leader, Barrasso is the most senior Senate Republican to hit the trail in Texas in the general election. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has held fundraisers with Paxton but has not publicly campaigned with him.
Barrasso also plans to campaign with former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan and Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky. He was also in South Carolina this week with Trump and said he had made stops in Iowa, Ohio and Kansas — all home to battleground Senate races.
Republicans are navigating steep headwinds as they try to fend off Democratic momentum and voter dissatisfaction to keep their majority. But Barrasso said he was “very optimistic” that the party would keep control of the Senate.
“There’s a lot of energy at every event I’ve gone to, and of course there are eight, 10 races now, a number for sure, that are within the margin of error,” Barrasso said. “So there’s a lot at stake in the next week and a half, and nothing’s going to be left on the field.”
He said races for Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire are still within the GOP’s grasp. But Republicans are also on defense in states like Kansas, Iowa and Texas where Trump won easily in 2024.
Republicans have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Texas to boost Paxton, even as some in the party lament some of the campaign decisions he’s made.
“I mean, I hope Ken Paxton wins. … But you know, Ken Paxton also has some responsibility here to be a better candidate and to raise some of his own money and to not be a drain on the system,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in an interview Thursday. “Having said all that, I hope he’s a senator.”
Democrats are now pushing into even deeper red territory, including South Carolina and Mississippi. Barrasso, in the interview, said that he was “very confident” that Republicans would hold both states, which have seen an influx of late spending.
“You know the president has really opened up his campaign coffers, and he’s fully invested time as well as money,” Barrasso said. “Every candidate wishes there were more resources, every candidate, so there’s no surprise there, but we feel we’re fully resourced to get … the message out.”
Congress
Capitol agenda: Bennie Thompson warns about Dems’ late bet
National Democrats finally went into Mississippi this week, putting over $1 million behind Scott Colom‘s campaign to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
To the state’s most prominent Democrat, it was welcome — but too late.
“Anything is appreciated, and I don’t want to seem like people here are not appreciative. But you know, we’ve been singing this song for almost a year,” Rep. Bennie Thompson said in an interview. “Scott is a quality candidate and he could’ve benefited from early recognition from the Senate Majority PAC and others.”
Thompson’s sentiments reflect ongoing frustration among some Democrats who have been beating the drum for more national investment in Black candidates in races once seen as long shots that are now anything but.
“Mississippi people are ready for a new direction. They’re ready to fire Cindy Hyde-Smith. They want somebody that’s going to actually look out for our state, and it’s great that the country is starting to realize that,” Colom said in an interview.
The sentiments were also echoed by Florida Democrat Angie Nixon, who is on her own quest to defeat incumbent GOP Sen. Ashley Moody.
Nixon, referring more broadly to national Democratic donors, said the party needs to do more in her state, and stat.
“I can win. I’m going to win. We just need people to really lean into this moment right now,” she told Dasha Burns in the latest episode of The Conversation.
Neither the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nor Senate Majority PAC has publicly announced a Florida television buy on her behalf, but Nixon was clear that the DSCC has been “very helpful” recently, opening up doors to connect her with donors and having her participate in fundraisers with DSCC head Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
“They are now seeing that this seat is actually winnable,” Nixon said.
Colom has also been a part of DSCC fundraisers and Schumer has directed donors to him.
The Senate Majority PAC declined to comment. DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle said Nixon and Colom are running “inspiring and energetic campaigns” and that her group is “committed to expanding the map as much as possible” despite limited resources and a flood of Republican money.
But Thompson argued that party leaders need to move much faster in the future to invest early in strong candidates who can mobilize the large populations of Black voters in Southern states that others deem unwinnable.
“The South in general is ripe for Democrats, but it has to be a sustained investment,” he said. “Given the loyalty that the African American population gives to the Democratic Party, it is just an ideal opportunity to grow the party and ultimately get some Democrats elected.”
“But,” he added, “that engagement can’t come two weeks or less before the general election.”
What else we’re watching:
— DEMOCRATS’ LOOMING TRADE BATTLE: Cracks in Democrats’ trade policy are starting to emerge within the party, even as candidates are presenting a united front on repealing Trump’s tariffs on the campaign trail. The simmering debate over how far to reject Trump’s trade agenda cuts across geography and ideology. It’s likely to bubble into public view in the coming months as Democrats prepare to assume more power in Congress and jump into the wide-open upcoming presidential primary.
— DEMS WANT MULLIN IN HOTSEAT: A top priority for Democrats if they get more power in Congress in November: Forcing the Trump administration’s controversial and unpopular immigration crackdown back in the headlines. And one of the people they plan to go after hard is Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin — the former lawmaker who was brought into the role in part because he was seen as someone who could play well with Congress, unlike former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. A House Democratic aide said that committees plan to look at how DHS under Mullin has failed to deploy body cameras to many immigration agents, allowed dismal conditions at immigration facilities and failed to cooperate with the department’s Inspector General.
Adam Wren, Daniel Desrochers and Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed to this report.
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