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Johnson tries to avoid McCarthy pitfalls as he preps for a speaker showdown

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Mike Johnson is trying to avoid the mistakes of his predecessor as he faces the toughest test of his political career on Friday.

With his bid to keep his speakership on the line — despite support from President-elect Donald Trump — the Louisiana Republican is looking to sidestep the kinds of side deals with conservative Republicans that ultimately cost Kevin McCarthy his own political future. But that’s a hard tightrope to cross.

Fiscal hawks want Johnson to make commitments, including giving them greater control over how bills move to the floor and slashing spending — pledges that could be untenable for Johnson with a razor-thin GOP margin. And while conservatives believe that Johnson is keeping an open mind on some of their demands, they’re also concerned about whether he will keep the three conservative rebels on the House Rules Committee, according to one Republican with knowledge of the matter, granted anonymity to detail private conversations.

The stakes are huge, and no one knows how it will play out in the coming hours. Around a dozen Republicans are on the fence, despite Johnson working the last several days to lock down the 218 votes he needs. He can only afford to have one Republican vote for someone else on the floor, but several on Thursday indicated they won’t announce how they will vote in advance.

While Johnson says his plan is to win the speakership right away on Friday, he’s also signaling that in order to get there he might show more flexibility with GOP hardliners.

”People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” he said Thursday as he left a meeting with hardliners. He added that if he doesn’t win on the first ballot, “that’s the process of Congress with a small majority.”

Given the uncertainty, some GOP lawmakers worry that a drawn-out speakership fight will force Johnson to cave and agree to policies that would make it harder for Republicans to pass priorities on the border, energy and taxes. Those goals will already be difficult, as they wrangle with an incredibly thin margin in the House.

The speaker race is House Republicans’ first real test of their ability to unify in the new Congress.

“We need to get that taken care of, get it behind us, and get on with our work on policy,” Republican Policy Committee Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) said in a brief interview, adding that a messy speaker fight would “certainly” make accomplishing the party’s policy goals harder.

Another House Republican lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly, added that Friday “needs to go smoothly or this year is going to be tragic.”

Yet the early demands are already piling up for Johnson: Rep. Chip Roy is angling to be chair of the Rules Committee, while the speaker’s allies urge him to remove the Texas Republican from the panel entirely. The other two conservative members of the panel aren’t clear on their futures either: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), the lone Republican who has already said publicly he’ll vote against Johnson, has signaled he expects he’ll likely lose his seat, while Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) recently told Blue Light News that he would like to stay on but he hasn’t gotten guidance from Johnson.

Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, who is known for regularly causing a ruckus ahead of key votes and then folding, publicly served Johnson with a laundry list of demands last month in order to secure her support. A close friend of Massie’s, Spartz is also seen as the most unpredictable of the undecided members.

“We had a good meeting with the speaker, discussed some things. In a lot of things we agree,” Rep. Victoria Spartz said.

Spartz met with Johnson behind closed doors on Thursday, telling reporters after that she will make a decision about the speaker’s race on Friday — one of many who seem to be waiting until the last minute to weigh in.

“We had a good meeting with the speaker, discussed some things. In a lot of things we agree,” Spartz said.

GOP members from across the conference are warning Johnson against any bigger concessions, like the kind they argue eventually crippled McCarthy’s speakership.

“It will cause problems elsewhere,” said one Republican lawmaker, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

It’s not just the speaker’s race that’s presenting early headaches for Johnson. House lawmakers also have to approve a rules package that governs how the chamber operates, an effort that won’t get Democratic help. Johnson similarly needs near-unanimity to move forward on the package of rules that leaders released on Wednesday, and Massie and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) are both already raising concerns. Johnson can’t pass it if he loses both of them.

There’s a real risk for Johnson if he bends to the demands of his hardliners. His predecessor, McCarthy, cut a flurry of deals before and during the 15 rounds it took him to win the gavel, including making it easier to oust a speaker and giving his hardliners plum positions on the Rules Committee. But those agreements ultimately planted the seeds for the House GOP’s perennial chaos over the past two years, and centrists accused McCarthy of bowing too far to his antagonists, sacrificing leadership’s power and still getting ousted just 10 months later.

Several of Johnson’s holdouts were tightlipped on Thursday as they left his office, though one acknowledged that Johnson “has work to do” to remain speaker. Another, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), added that the group is “keeping our powder dry.” Asked if they feared retribution from Trump if they do not back the incoming president’s pick, Reps. Michael Cloud (R-Texas) and Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) shrugged off the threat. Cloud later clarified in a tweet that he doesn’t want to delay Trump’s agenda but is instead seeking “structural changes” to “how the House operates.”

Norman declined to say if the group would settle for verbal commitments or if they needed to see something in writing, but said they were dug in on the predictable areas: “fiscal discipline, securing the border, pass reconciliation.”

“The president has got four years, but in reality he’s got 12 to 14 months,” he added.

Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.

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Congress

Mullin markup still on

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A committee vote on Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s confirmation as Homeland Security secretary remains on track for Thursday despite a fiery sparring session Wednesday between the Oklahoma Republican and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, the chair of the panel that must approve his nomination.

A spokesperson for Paul said after the tense exchange — during which Mullin refused to apologize for comments saying he “understood” why Paul was violently assaulted in 2017 — that the committee vote “is on for tomorrow.”

As chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Paul has wide latitude to schedule action on Mullin’s nomination.

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Elizabeth Warren backs Mallory McMorrow in Michigan Senate primary

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Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is wading into Michigan’s closely contested Democratic Senate primary, backing state Sen. Mallory McMorrow over two rivals.

It’s a somewhat counterintuitive endorsement for the progressive U.S. senator who has made her backing of Medicare for All a core part of her political identity. McMorrow opposes Medicare for All, while Abdul El-Sayed, one of McMorrow’s opponents, supports it.

But the endorsement is a coup for McMorrow as she seeks to win over the progressive wing of the party in her bid to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. McMorrow has now secured endorsements from four senators — with Warren joining Chris Murphy of Connecticut, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico and Peter Welch of Vermont — more than opponents El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens.

Warren said in a statement her relationship with McMorrow goes back nearly a decade.

“I remember first calling Michigan State Senator McMorrow after she flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018, and I was immediately inspired by her ideas, her plans, and her fight to make a real difference,” she said. “Mallory is both a fighter and a winner, and I’m proud to endorse her because she’s the proven leader Michigan needs in the United States Senate.”

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Capitol agenda: Tulsi Gabbard takes the hot seat

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Tulsi Gabbard heads into Senate Intelligence on Wednesday facing one of the most fraught moments of her tenure as director of national intelligence.

The longtime anti-interventionist is set to be the main character at Wednesday morning’s worldwide threats hearing when she appears with other administration officials, after former top aide Joe Kent resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center over the Iran war.

Kent’s resignation has raised the question of how much longer Gabbard will serve in the administration. She’s largely been silent since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in late February, and she’s been kept out of military planning on Iran since the U.S. struck nuclear sites in the country last summer.

“Both Kent and Gabbard have had less and less influence,” one House Republican granted anonymity to speak openly said. “They’ve been sidelined.” Gabbard will appear before House Intelligence Thursday.

Gabbard’s testimony last March that downplayed Iran’s nuclear weapons program — prompting a “she’s wrong” from President Donald Trump — is poised to be revisited by senators at Wednesday morning’s hearing, as are her anti-war positions.

“The president made the right move based upon the information that we’ve all seen in classified sessions,” said South Dakota Sen. Mike Rounds, an intel committee Republican. He signaled that Gabbard could be asked about her previous assessment at the hearing.

Around the same time in Dirksen this morning, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) will be in the hot seat as he testifies on his nomination to replace Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary.

Senate Homeland Security is expected to quickly approve the nomination Thursday, though it’s TBD to what extent Mullin will get bipartisan support beyond Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).

“We actually have a pretty good working relationship, and have worked on projects together, but we do have a lot of questions,” said Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, a committee Democrat who has yet to say how he’ll vote. “Largely it’s like, who really is in charge of DHS? … Is it going to be Stephen Miller’s in charge?”

What else we’re watching: 

— House gets a FISA briefing: Trump officials will host a classified briefing for House members at 3:30 p.m. on the administration’s push for a clean reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, due to expire April 20, as conservatives threaten to tank the effort.

Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes his members who are currently opposed to a clean, 18-month extension will ultimately vote for the party-line rule. But two House Republicans are already publicly vowing to oppose the procedural rule to tee up a clean FISA reauthorization, which leaders are aiming to put on the floor next week.

— DOJ officials brief House Oversight: Attorney General Pam Bondi and her deputy Todd Blanche will be on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief House Oversight Committee members on the Justice Department’s ongoing Jeffrey Epstein investigation.

It comes the day after the chair, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), subpoenaed Bondi to testify under oath as part of the committee’s own Epstein probe. But a GOP spokesperson for the committee said that Wednesday’s briefing, which was scheduled at DOJ’s request, won’t be a substitute for Bondi’s future testimony.

John Sakellariadis, Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy and Hailey Fuchs contributed to this report.

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