Congress
Johnson has 3 main options to avert a shutdown. None of them are looking good.
Mike Johnson’s in a terrible spot, with a government shutdown deadline looming in less than 48 hours and no obvious way out.
Conservatives are furious, rank-and-file members are exasperated, and President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to primary his members and taking blatant shots at his speakership.
After spending weeks negotiating a stopgap spending bill with several add-ons, Trump and others all but killed Johnson’s deal on Wednesday. Now, he has to figure out if he’ll try to stick with it, passing it using a lot of Democratic support, or come up with another last-minute escape hatch. And time is quickly running out.
All of his options have downsides. Let’s lay them out:
Stick to the status quo: This appears to be the least likely, as both Donald Trump and Elon Musk have come out against the bill he negotiated to punt the funding deadline until March 14.
This might have passed both chambers — at least, it could have before Trump came out against it — but if Johnson moves forward with it now, there’s a good chance he won’t be reelected speaker on Jan. 3. Conservative anger is too high, with at least one Republican already saying he’ll vote for someone else and several others noncommittal.
Plus, Johnson needs Trump to stay on his side. Directly opposing him by putting this forward anyway would be ill-advised, and Trump hinted at this in an interview with Fox News Digital, saying Johnson would “easily remain speaker” if he “acts decisively and tough” and eliminates “all of the traps being set by Democrats” in the spending package.
A clean stopgap bill: Even before Trump came out against the stopgap funding package Wednesday, Johnson was discussing putting forward a “clean” bill that wouldn’t include add-ons like disaster aid and a farm bill extension. But there are problems there, too, and it’s unclear that it could clear Congress.
Some Republicans have vociferously demanded disaster aid for their natural disaster ravaged communities. Sen Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), for example, already said he wouldn’t vote for a package unless it included disaster aid. Democrats also likely wouldn’t support the bill unless it at least included money to help those affected by natural disasters.
Plus, Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have now called for a debt limit increase to ride along with this bill. Leaving that out could stoke their anger, even if it’s a more straightforward bill.
Stopgap with a debt limit hike: This is the preferred option of Trump and others — but it requires rank-and-file to walk what has been the third rail of modern GOP politics: Lifting the nation’s borrowing limits. Republicans have twisted themselves into all sorts of pretzels to avoid precisely these sorts of votes over the last decade, preferring to leave it to Democrats.
Typically, raising the debt limit comes with spending caps, an issue that takes weeks of negotiations, if not more. Lawmakers have less than two days before a shutdown kicks in.
Maybe Trump’s insistence gets enough Republicans on board — but lawmakers would then have to likely pass the underlying bill on their own. Democrats have indicated they don’t plan to bail out Republicans over these sorts of 11th hour demands for changes to their negotiated bipartisan measure.
Keep in mind: This is all before the measure reaches the Democratic-run Senate, where 60 votes will be needed to eventually pass the legislation to keep the government lights on. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he’s waiting to see what the House does.
As we said: There are no good or consequence-free options for Johnson. This episode has riled up some conservatives against his speakership — and the odds of him easily clinching the gavel have gone down substantially.
Republicans have had to defer many of their legislative dreams, hoping the post-election release of political pressure could set up a productive “lame duck” session before a new Congress is seated.
Fat chance, many GOP lawmakers now say.
Beyond the uncertainties surrounding the midterms and a potential transition of power on Capitol Hill, members will return to Washington facing a considerable list of must-pass bipartisan bills but also potentially messy internal leadership fights, a foul national mood and a mere 24 legislative days to get anything done.
One thing on Republicans’ minds is whether some of their members even come back to vote.
“The question becomes: Who shows up for work after the elections?” Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) said in an interview. “Attendance is an issue right now.”
There are some items, Scott added, that “ultimately … have to get done.” Those include an extension of government funding past Dec. 11 and the annual Pentagon policy bill. Major pieces of legislation to reauthorize farm, transportation and surveillance programs are also on deck. All are loaded with potential partisan flashpoints, however, and won’t be legislative chip shots.
Then there are pending bipartisan bills overhauling energy permitting and the college sports industry that many members are itching to get done this year. But many lawmakers fear those could easily get left behind — especially if Democrats can win control of either chamber and seek greater influence on the final products.
“What do you think?” an exasperated Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said about the prospect for bipartisan accomplishments in the lame duck. “I mean, why? If you think about it, if Democrats win the House, why would they?”
Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who like Tillis is leaving Congress at the end of the year, echoed the belief that Democrats would “want to put their fingerprints more on things before they pass” in a majority-flips scenario.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested as much in a recent interview: “The lame duck will be quite different if we win the Senate,” he said. “Same thing if they win the House, and same thing if we win both or neither.”
Then there are partisan GOP priorities that some Republicans are hoping to ram through in the final weeks of the year — especially if the party’s governing trifecta is about to end — such as enacting hundreds of millions of dollars in new defense funding as well as new voting restrictions.
While GOP leaders are leaving the door open to attempting to pass another bill through the party-line reconciliation process, there are no signs they are closer to having the necessary votes than they were this summer.
While some Republicans believe that losing a chamber would jump-start that process, others privately believe the exact opposite would happen, according to three GOP aides granted anonymity to speak candidly. There will be little incentive for lawmakers who just lost their seats — “free-range chickens,” some call them — to grind out a final legislative win, if they come back at all.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune last month admitted he is facing mathematical realities that make passing another reconciliation bill “difficult” even in a lame-duck session.
That likely spells doom for another GOP wish being bandied about for the post-midterms session: clearing a debt-limit increase through the end of President Donald Trump’s term. Thune has acknowledged that as a possibility multiple times since July, but several GOP senators are skeptical.
“I don’t like that idea,” said retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), who added she had to “hold my nose” in voting for the last debt-ceiling lift.
But other GOP leaders are professing more optimism about the post-midterm environment to overcome some long-standing roadblocks.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise in an interview called it “an opportunity for everybody to focus on getting policy done because the election will be over.”
“I hope we get back to that, because it needs to happen,” he said.
But each piece of legislation still in limbo is riddled with thorny policy disputes. Senate Democrats blocked the defense bill amid a standoff over the Iran war and have objected to giving Trump back some surveillance powers. The farm bill, meanwhile, is mired in a fight over food assistance.
Thune has teed up an initial vote on the bipartisan permittingdeal, but Democrats continue to doubt whether Trump will live up to GOP negotiators’ clean energy commitments — and they could push for more concessions if they prevail in the midterms.
Even the must-do government funding bill is a potential minefield, with lawmakers widely expecting a punt until deeper into the holidays or even next year.
Democrats are fuming over the Trump administration’s recent decision to block roughly $1 billion in congressionally approved funding, which could complicate the dealmaking ahead of the deadline. That could make passage of the 12 annual spending bills, or a combined full-year “omnibus” package, impossible.
“I just don’t think we’ll get them done by the 11th,” Rep. Mike Simpson of Idaho, a senior GOP appropriator, said about the full-year bills. He predicted another short-term punt.
Beyond the policy disputes, there’s a host of other distractions leaders of both parties will be dealing with once they return to session Nov. 9.
Speaker Mike Johnson will immediately have to deal with a House vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forced by outgoing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). With the Iran war weighing heavily on voters’ views of the GOP, some Republicans with an eye on the next election could decide to break ranks.
And though the elections will be over outside the Capitol, internal politicking could continue for weeks in both chambers.
A Democratic flip of the House could spark a potentially chaotic cascade of GOP leadership elections, especially with Johnson giving mixed signals about his intentions in that scenario. He broached the possibility he might not remain atop his conference in a Fox News interview last week, then said in a CBS News interview published Monday that he expected “my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference” even after a loss.
Thune says he is running again for GOP leader regardless of the election outcome, and no other senator has signaled they will challenge him. That hasn’t stopped some conservatives, in and out of the chamber, from questioning whether Trump will blame him if the majority is lost.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said the lame duck to-do list could ultimately come down to vibes.
“I know what they would like us to do and all that,” Kennedy said. “But you have no idea what the mood is going to be.”
President Donald Trump announced the next chief for the White House’s Capitol Hill strategy on Saturday night, picking Katie Bailey, a former Republican Hill staffer.
Bailey will replace James Braid in the role of director of the Office of Legislative Affairs, which oversees nominations and confirmations of Cabinet roles, relationships on Capitol Hill and the White House’s legislative priorities. Braid left the job in September.
Bailey has served as deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs since the beginning of the summer. She formerly worked for Republican Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana and former Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and served in roles on multiple committees.
Trump commended Bailey for assisting with the confirmations of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton and Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling, saying she has “already delivered strong results.”
“After previously working on Capitol Hill, Katie understands how the Executive and Legislative Branches of Government can most effectively work together to achieve Great Success for the American People,” the president wrote in a social media post Saturday night.
Bailey takes over the role ahead of the midterm elections, which could alter the power dynamics in Washington substantially if Democrats seize control of either chamber of Congress. The result, which the White House has begun preparing for, could include congressional subpoenas, depositions and investigations, as happened during the latter half of Trump’s first term in office, when Democrats flipped the House.
Trump’s approval continues to sag amid soaring gas and diesel prices driven by the war with Iran, leaving Democrats bullish that the map will continue to grow for them.
SYRACUSE, New York — President Donald Trump came to New York on Friday to help a Republican win an uphill race for governor. But his visit was also a reminder of the complicated role he plays in his party’s fight to keep control of Congress.
Trump rallied alongside GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman, calling on New Yorkers to fire Gov. Kathy Hochul and, referring to the state attorney general, “her totally corrupt sidekick, Letitia ‘Peekaboo’ James.”
“Your city and state are dirty, filthy places, and everybody wants to leave,” he told some 5,000 attendees at a convention center in downtown Syracuse — which, he noted, was “a short distance from the beautiful shores of Lake America.”
“You gotta get your act together, and I tell you what, Bruce Blakeman will get your act together,” Trump said.
For Republicans, the president’s appearance underscored a political dilemma that extends beyond New York: Even as Trump increasingly appears to be a drag on their ticket, they need his loyal supporters to energize their base. While voters have soured on the president’s handling of the economy and costs, he remains a potent force in turning out MAGA voters — even in an otherwise Democratic-dominated state.
“The targeting of where the president goes is not a random exercise,” Marist University pollster Lee Miringoff said. “They’re looking to stir the base without stirring the opposition. They’re picking and choosing, that’s not uncommon. For him to come to New York to help the turnout upstate is a positive for the Republicans and his base.”
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, hasn’t distanced himself from the president — nor have most of the top officials in New York’s GOP. Nearly every Republican running a competitive congressional race in this half of the state came to Friday’s rally, eager to make their presence known.
“I’m always happy to be with the president,” said Anthony Constantino, who’s running in a nearby red district that’s inched into toss-up territory. “He’s the leader of the free world, and I’m excited to have a great relation with him.”
Some GOP operatives, however, have quietly grumbled that their candidates need to start creating some distance from the president. Republicans from other parts of the state like Rep. Mike Lawler decided that campaigning in their districts was more valuable than trekking to be seen with Trump — as did several down-ballot candidates in Central New York. Democrats, notably, have been just as eager to highlight the visit.
“This is supposed to be a swing district. And the feedback I get is that the president is very unpopular,” said Democratic Rep. John Mannion, who represents Syracuse and the surrounding Central New York area. “He still certainly will have his core base of supporters, but I do think he’s lost support here compared to what he had around the 2024 election.”
Blakeman, for his part, isn’t worried about Trump’s drop in popularity.
“Kathy Hochul should be worried about her drop in popularity,” he said before taking the stage in Syracuse. “She’s the most unpopular governor in the history of the state of New York.”
Trump’s visit came against the backdrop of a darkening political environment for New York Republicans.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement shot a man in Manhattan on Thursday afternoon, stirring fresh condemnation of Trump’s aggressive deportation policies. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has a surprisingly warm relationship with the president, called on him to cease all ICE activity in the five boroughs. Hochul stressed that the shooting took place with a five-year-old child present and demanded that federal authorities “provide answers.”
Immigration is one of several areas where Blakeman has hewed close to the Trump wing of the party throughout his campaign.
“I’m outraged with Kathy Hochul for taking sides with somebody who was a convicted felon, someone who was an alleged drug dealer, a gang member,” he said Friday about the shooting in Manhattan.
While Trump’s speech repeatedly careened back to the rhetoric one could expect from any of his rallies — boasts about the stock market, complaints about ‘Dumocrats’ — he did manage to seamlessly blend almost all of Blakeman’s oft-used talking points into his stump speech.
“Since Hochul took office, she’s raised your utility rates 48 times, and energy prices in New York have skyrocketed 100 percent,” Trump said. “If Bruce Blakeman gets in, he will cut your electric bills by 70, 80, 90 percent.”
The climate outside of deep blue New York City is also turning increasingly hostile to the GOP. Constantino, who’s running to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in upstate New York, trails his Democratic foe Blake Gendebien by 4 points, a Siena Research Institute survey released Friday morning found. A Blue Light News poll showed that nationally one in four Trump voters believe Republican candidates should break from the president in order to win in November.
The wisdom of appearing with Trump has been debated by Republicans throughout the country at a time when gas prices are high and a foreign war drags on. And New York Democrats aren’t viewing the presidential visit as a concern.
Much of Hochul’s messaging this year has focused on making sure New Yorkers know Blakeman and Trump are friends. Her most-aired TV commercial features a puppeteer saying one Republican would do the other’s bidding.
“Puppets are my life. You tell them what to say, they say it,” the narrator says. “But that’s not what you want in a governor.”
Earlier in the day during an MSNOW interview, Hochul dismissed the rally.
“It’s obviously a very political event,” she said. “It seems like a last-ditch effort to breathe some life into a campaign that’s on life support.”
Despite his low approval ratings with voters, Trump’s visit stands to light up a Republican base that Blakeman will need to turn out next month to help him defeat Hochul.
Polling has shown the governor leading the GOP nominee by as much as 18 points in this deep blue state. Yet some Trump supporters maintain the president can help generate much-needed enthusiasm for Blakeman, especially in areas of upstate New York where the Long Island native is not well known.
“We actually have the ability to win these elections, but I just don’t see the enthusiasm out there,” Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar said. “Hochul has won the day as far as being a terrible governor, but now we’ve got to get our people out to vote.”
Winning is still a tall order for Blakeman — especially in a tough national political environment where polls show GOP candidates in red states like Texas, Ohio and Kansas struggling against Democratic challengers.
Republicans have not won statewide in New York since George Pataki secured a third term in 2002. Since then, the GOP has lost all levers of statewide power, and Trump’s tariffs as well as his decision to launch a war in Iran have not helped him fulfill his campaign pledge of addressing voters’ cost concerns.
The president’s political woes aren’t going unnoticed.
Privately, Republican operatives grumbled that the president’s visit put swing seat candidates in an uncomfortable spot.
“There’s a lot of commiserating between folks within the party structure — why is this happening? Why is he doing this?” said one Republican operative who was granted anonymity to freely discuss the dynamic. “Then you’ve got the blind loyalists who say, ‘Yay Trump’s coming’ — people who are too politically dumb to understand the ramifications of it.”
Yet the head of the Republican party kept his message very much in line with Hochul’s.
“Please pretend I’m on the ballot,” Trump told Central New Yorkers.
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