Politics
Indiana GOP’s Trump rebuke could lead to temporary redistricting detente
Indiana Republicans’ redistricting rejection marks a rare ceasefire in the gerrymandering wars—and could lead to other state leaders backing off their own plans.
The result gives cover for some Democratic-leaning states to stand down, even as the party’s base is whipped into a frenzy over the issue. Lawmakers in Illinois and Maryland have for months had internal debates about whether to move forward with redrawing their maps, and Indiana’s decision was met with some relief from the mounting pressure they anticipated being under had Republicans in Indiana further gerrymandered their maps.
Illinois Democrats have long said they would only gerrymander if the Indiana GOP bowed to Trump’s demands and redid their own map. In the wake of Hoosier Republicans’ move on Thursday, they don’t seem eager to change their minds.
Maryland has been a mirror image of Indiana: One Democratic leader is rebuffing entreaties from top Democrats to eliminate the state’s lone remaining GOP seat.
Maryland Democratic Senate President Bill Ferguson has exchanged phone calls with Indiana Senate Republican leader Rodric Bray, four people familiar with the two leaders, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, tell Blue Light News. Each has resisted pressure from top officials in their party to move on redistricting. Bray’s success could now lessen the pressure on Ferguson. Bray’s spokesperson, Molly Swigart, said no deal was ever made between Bray and Ferguson on redistricting in their respective states.
And in Virginia, where Democrats gained 13 seats in their House of Delegates in November’s statewide elections, they’re poised to make drastic changes to their congressional maps that could net the party upwards of four seats. But that stance seems at odds with the views of Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, who sounded reluctant to the idea of making wholesale changes to congressional lines at a Blue Light News event earlier this week.
There are also headwinds elsewhere for Trump and his allies: Kansas and Kentucky Republicans have so far failed to move forward with their redistricting pushes that are complicated by opposition from Democratic governors; Ohio Republicans struck a compromise with Democrats for a less aggressive gerrymander than what some national leaders wanted; a judge picked a map in Utah that drew a safe Democratic seat; and Republicans are facing a potential setback for Missouri.
That doesn’t mean the redistricting wars are over. Lawmakers in a number of other states are still weighing their own maps, with GOP-led Florida and Democratic-controlled Virginia remaining the biggest question marks on the board. Republicans are still eying Kentucky and Nebraska as well.
“We’ve got a lot more states that we can do work on,” one person close to the White House granted anonymity to speak candidly on a sensitive matter told Blue Light News Friday, while admitting that “Indiana was definitely frustrating.”
And if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling further gutting the Voting Rights Act in the coming months, a number of states are expected to rush to redraw their lines before their states’ filing deadlines, in a move that could give the GOP a huge boost and potentially put the House out of reach for Democrats.
“The truth is, I think we’re still, we’re in the middle of this redistricting war,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “We’re all waiting to hear back from the Supreme Court as to what they’re going to do and how they’re going to move forward.”
Here’s what to expect in the coming weeks from states including Maryland, Florida, Illinois and a challenge to the already-passed maps passed in Missouri.
Maryland
Perhaps lawmakers breathing the biggest sigh of relief from Indiana bucking Trump’s redistricting push are those in Maryland.
Ferguson has for months been facing pressure from Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and national Democrats to wade into the redistricting fight. That lobbying campaign to net Maryland Democrats an additional seat would have been kicked into hyperdrive if Indiana had drawn new maps.
Reports of Ferguson possibly losing his grip on leading the Senate Democrats evaporated this week after he was unanimously renominated as Senate leader. Then on Thursday, just hours before the Indiana Senate cast the vote dooming the redistricting effort, Ferguson put out a statement with Democratic House Delegates Speaker Pro Tem Dana Stein declaring that lawmakers in the special session Moore called for next week will definitively not take up any new maps.
While that likely closes the door on the redistricting push for this year, Moore still has an opportunity to reignite a pressure campaign aimed at Ferguson to hold a vote on the issue in January, when the legislature returns for regular session. The governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission is meeting Friday for its final public hearing to solicit comments from Maryland residents before its members make a recommendation to the governor and the General Assembly on whether to redraw maps.
Illinois
For months, Illinois Democrats have suggested they were unlikely to try to squeeze another seat out of their already-gerrymandered state unless Indiana Republicans redrew their seats.
And while state Democratic leaders didn’t completely rule out redistricting in the wake of the Indiana GOP’s vote, they don’t sound particularly eager for a new map.
“Our neighbors in Indiana have stood up to Trump’s threats and political pressure, instead choosing to do what’s right for their constituents and our democracy,” Gov. JB Pritzker said in a statement after the result, without saying what Illinois might do.
A person in Pritzker’s office, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, said the governor was less than equivocal in his statement because no one knows what Trump’s next move might be.
State House and Senate Democratic leaders struck similar tones, praising their Hoosier neighbors while pledging to stay vigilant against similar efforts in other states.
Virginia
Democrats’ best remaining chance for a multi-seat gerrymander is Old Dominion. But while statehouse leaders seem eager to push forward with a complicated plan for a voter referendum to approve a new gerrymander — much like California’s move — the state’s incoming Democratic governor doesn’t seem quite as eager to lend a hand.
The Democratic-dominated Virginia legislature is expected to easily pass a procedural measure before putting the issue of redistricting before voters to approve a constitutional Virginia amendment to redraw the state’s maps ahead of the midterms — a move that legislative leaders have teased could lead to a 10-1 map.
“I feel comfortable that we have an opportunity to do a number of maps here in Virginia to allow for us to level the playing field,” Virginia House Speaker Don Scott said at a Blue Light News event this week.
But at the same event, Spanberger hedged when asked if she supported redrawing maps to achieve the feat.
“The calendar is tight, and for me, I want to win,” Spanberger said, pointing to Virginia’s first and second congressional districts that are currently held by Republicans. “I want to flip seats in the House of Representatives and I know that we can because I just won those districts.”
But when asked directly if redistricting is the way to go, Spanberger said Virginia should “leave open the option” of new maps, but ultimately voters will decide if the legislature should move forward.
Florida
Florida Republicans could deliver their party three to five more seats if they press ahead with mid-decade redistricting. But two factors complicate that effort.
First, GOP leaders aren’t on the same page. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has been touting the need to draw new maps since last summer, has suggested waiting until the spring of next year in case the U.S. Supreme Court weakens the VRA and bars the consideration of race when drawing lines, a position backed by the state’s GOP Senate president, Ben Albritton.
But state GOP House Speaker Daniel Perez said this week it is “irresponsible” to wait and that the House is prepared to send a map to the Senate during its regular session that starts next month.
Second, GOP leaders may be constrained by Florida’s voter-approved constitutional ban on redistricting for partisan gain. Democrats have already asserted that drawing up any new map is “illegal’ and would violate these standards signaling that litigation is likely if state legislators pass a new map. But Florida’s conservative-dominated state Supreme Court already ruled in 2022 that legislators can sidestep minority protections when it allowed a previous GOP-drawn map that was muscled into law by DeSantis, weakening its impact.Perez insisted that he has not been under pressure from Trump or the White House to move ahead on redistricting. When asked on Friday if there was added pressure on the House to act due to the outcome in Indiana he said: “No sir.”
Missouri
Missouri Republicans already passed a map to flip Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Mo.) district red, but Democrats are hoping to undo the GOP-passed map in Missouri via ballot measure. Earlier this week, they submitted more than double the 107,000 signatures required to force a statewide vote for the secretary of state.
If the signatures are validated, the map may not cannot go into effect in time for the midterms, and if voters approve the ballot measure, the map gets tossed. Republicans still have a bit of time, since GOP Secretary of State Denny Hoskins doesn’t have to approve the signatures until July. Plus, it’s unclear when the Republican-controlled Legislature will actually put those signatures up for a vote.
The timing is causing a bit of chaos. Since candidates need to file by the end of March, prospective members of Congress may have to file in districts that aren’t set for the midterms.
Adam Wren, Andrew Howard, Shia Kapos, Alex Gangitano and Gary Fineout contributed to this story.
Top Democrats are using 2026 as a launching pad for potential 2028 presidential runs.
From progressive Reps. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to the more moderate Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Democrats have sought to shape their party by endorsing in contested primaries this year. They’ve traveled the country to raise their own profiles and elevate candidates they see as the future of the party.
Their strategies have not always been successful — but they have been revealing: Some endorsed against incumbents based on generational or ideological differences. Some weighed in early to give candidates credence, while others waited until the last minute to help them close out the race. And some have focused on purple districts and other competitive races that could determine control of Congress in the fall.
“If you’re thinking about running for president, you need allies,” said Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist whose firm works with House and Senate campaigns across the country. “The more that you’re out there, trying to get people elected and making a meaningful difference, voters are going to remember that.”
Appearing with candidates on the campaign trail is an opportunity for potential 2028 candidates to create social media buzz, Nellis noted. Traveling gives them opportunities to connect with donors and elected officials across the country who might be helpful for a future presidential run and pressure test how messages work in various parts of the country. For those not up for an election of their own this year, it’s also a way to stay relevant.
Some potential presidential candidates have been particularly prolific, while others have been more cautious or stuck to their home states, according to a Blue Light News review of endorsements in House, Senate and gubernatorial races. And a handful mostly stayed out of this year’s primaries.
The most prolific endorsers
Few members of Congress threw out as many endorsements as Khanna.
The California representative, who has said he is “seriously considering” running for president in 2028, endorsed in more than a dozen races, often serving as one of the earliest national backers of progressive candidates such as Kat Abughazaleh in Illinois’ 9th District and Analilia Mejia in New Jersey’s 11th District. Abughazaleh lost her race, while Mejia won.
Khanna also backed left-wing candidates that other national progressives shied away from, most notably democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race.
His record is mixed. Hong lost and former Maine Senate Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who Khanna stood by despite a series of controversies, had to drop out after winning a primary but facing an allegation of sexual assault, which he denies — at which point Khanna, like many others, withdrew his endorsement.
Khanna told Blue Light News he likes “endorsing early when an insurgent candidate is a bit of a longshot because that is when they need the endorsement most.” He looks for candidates who support Medicare for All and taxing billionaires and are opposed to foreign wars.
“My philosophy is to give those who are outsiders and have to scrape their way in — like I had to — a fair shot,” he said in a text message.
Ocasio-Cortez also endorsed a large slate of progressive candidates, but she’s been more selective than Khanna — a difference in approach that’s sparked some infighting within the Bernie Sanders wing of the progressive movement.
Critics have argued she’s played it too safe. But her selectivity has also meant she avoided high-profile stumbles.
Ocasio-Cortez has positioned herself as more of a closer this cycle. In California’s 22nd District, a battleground in the Central Valley, Khanna endorsed progressive professor Randy Villegas last September, while Ocasio-Cortez dropped her endorsement in May — about a month before the primary. Villegas ultimately defeated a moderate lawmaker backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and is among the progressives who will now try to knock off an incumbent Republican in November.
Ocasio-Cortez actively campaigned for progressives in several contested battleground primaries, rallying with Sam Forstag in Montana and alongside Sanders with Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly won the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan.
She recently threw her support behind Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who faces a primary challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton next week.
The other most frequent endorser among potential Democratic 2028ers this cycle played in a different lane. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a moderate, has been active on the campaign trail, visiting most presidential battleground states and endorsing in key Senate primaries, including Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary — which she lost to progressive Peggy Flanagan — and state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa’s Democratic Senate primary, which he won.
Buttigieg, who has said he is “more inclined than not” to run for president again in 2028, has also notched endorsement wins with Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s battleground 3rd District and former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin in Connecticut, who defeated incumbent Rep. John Larson earlier this month.
Most governors stuck close to home
Governors eyeing White House runs kept their endorsements closer to home, largely trying to play kingmaker within state lines as they face their own reelection fights.
The local focus allows them to flex their influence while avoiding criticism for nationalizing their own states’ politics. And they’ve campaigned aggressively for their chosen candidates — political power plays that not only strengthen their standing on home turf but could also serve as springboards for national bids.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker pumped $10 million into a super PAC supporting his lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton, in the contentious Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, and appeared alongside her on the campaign trail. He described the race as “personal” to him; Stratton won by 7 points.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro expended significant political capital in one of Democrats’ top House targets in his state, helping recruit longtime ally and firefighter union chief Bob Brooks into the race against GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the state’s swingy 7th District and then working to elevate him out of a four-way primary. Shapiro fundraised for Brooks, cut an ad for him and joined him on the stump ahead of Election Day; Brooks won by nearly 20 points.
Shapiro was also one of a handful of Democratic attorneys-general-turned-governors who backed Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser in his gubernatorial primary against Sen. Michael Bennet. Weiser won by 14 points.
In Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore backed state Del. Adrian Boafo in the crowded race to replace retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer and boosted Rep. April McClain Delaney in her bruising primary against former Rep. David Trone — including recording a robocall on her behalf. An adviser to Moore said the governor had preexisting relationships with both candidates he endorsed, and that he prioritizes local and in-state races as he seeks to make endorsement decisions that will benefit his constituents.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer also stuck to her state, only really playing in Michigan’s high-profile Senate race. She endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens in the final stretch of the race, although she wasn’t active on the campaign trail in the same way Pritzker was for Stratton or Shapiro for Brooks.
Disagreements among moderates
Even among candidates occupying a more centrist lane heading into 2028, there was room for disagreement.
Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a former national security official, endorsed retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, a moderate in Michigan’s 7th district, which she previously represented. Several Democrats had hoped she’d back former foreign service officer Bridget Brink, a fellow moderate — and as they split the centrist vote, progressive William Lawrence ascended to the nomination in the toss-up district instead.
A person familiar with Slotkin’s thinking, granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations, said that she connected better with Maasdam and saw him as a stronger general election candidate.
The person also acknowledged that Slotkin’s decision to wait to issue her endorsement until three weeks before the primary didn’t leave enough time for voters and party leaders to coalesce around Maasdam.
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) rolled out a slate of endorsements of veteran candidates, mostly for the general election, but has backed a range of other Democrats in primaries. That includes DCCC-backed political novice Marlene Galan-Woods in his home state, only for her to lose the primary in Arizona’s 1st District.
“As Navy combat veteran and former NASA astronaut, Mark Kelly knows the country is best served by leaders who represent their communities and bring a range of different backgrounds and experiences to the job. It’s why he’s endorsed candidates in competitive primaries and campaigned for Democrats up and down the ballot,” Kelly spokesperson Marisol Samayoa said.
In next week’s primary in New Hampshire’s 1st District, Kelly is supporting Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of his Senate colleague Jeanne Shaheen, praising her as a “fearless leader” who would stand up to President Donald Trump.
New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill also went on a recent endorsement spree focused on military veterans. But she’s backing Maura Sullivan in the race against Shaheen next week, along with Rep. Seth Moulton in his primary against Sen. Ed Markey, who has gotten backing from progressives including Ocasio-Cortez.
“The fight isn’t moderates versus DSA candidates,” Sherrill told POLITICO earlier this month. “The fight is if we are going to have strong people in the Democratic Party that are going to actually make change to make people’s lives better, or people who you can just expect more of the same.”
The ones who (mostly) sat it out
Not every potential presidential candidate was eager to endorse this cycle.
Even after working to redraw boundaries in his home state to create more safely blue seats, California Gov. Gavin Newsom stayed out of the federal races — and the contest to succeed him. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear endorsed after primaries in his home state were complete. Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, who is considering his own White House bid, also eschewed endorsements.
And Kamala Harris declined to weigh in on the majority of competitive primaries because of her high profile, according to a person familiar with her thinking who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. The exceptions were “based on the closeness” of the former vice president’s relationships with the people she did endorse.
Harris recorded a robocall for Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Texas Senate primary before Crockett eventually lost to James Talarico. She backed Del. Stacey Plaskett ahead of her U.S. Virgin Islands’ gubernatorial primary victory earlier this month. She has also endorsed Dan Koh in next week’s primary for Massachusetts’ 6th District.
All three candidates have close ties to Harris. Crockett served as co-chair of Harris’ 2024 presidential campaign, Plaskett endorsed Harris when she first ran for president in the 2020 primary, and Koh is a former Biden administration official.
Iowa’s last Democrat on how he can win in Trump country
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Alaska GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan can’t shake his same-name challenger.
Retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan punched a ticket out of the state’s top-four, all-party primary early Wednesday morning. He could now play spoiler in a high-stakes Senate clash between the Republican senator and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola that could help swing control of the upper chamber.
Republicans fought and failed to keep Dan J. Sullivan off the primary ballot, arguing he was a Democratic plant designed to boost Peltola. Both Dan J. Sullivan and Peltola’s campaign have denied any coordination.
The senator’s allies have already taken steps to mitigate the second Sullivan’s potential vote siphoning, in some cases running ads using the senator’s middle initial to help differentiate between the same-named candidates.
Supporters of the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which kicks in for the general election, argue the process helps curtail the spoiler effect. But the presence of other candidates could still skew the results of the battleground race. Outside groups flooded the primary with more than $2 million to boost myriad fringe candidates — and could do so again ahead of November.
It’s not smooth sailing for Peltola, either, as she wages an uphill battle to flip a red seat in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024. She recently replaced her campaign manager in a staffing shakeup ahead of the primary, among other internal moves.
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