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Indiana GOP’s Trump rebuke could lead to temporary redistricting detente

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Indiana Republicans’ redistricting rejection marks a rare ceasefire in the gerrymandering wars—and could lead to other state leaders backing off their own plans.

The result gives cover for some Democratic-leaning states to stand down, even as the party’s base is whipped into a frenzy over the issue. Lawmakers in Illinois and Maryland have for months had internal debates about whether to move forward with redrawing their maps, and Indiana’s decision was met with some relief from the mounting pressure they anticipated being under had Republicans in Indiana further gerrymandered their maps.

Illinois Democrats have long said they would only gerrymander if the Indiana GOP bowed to Trump’s demands and redid their own map. In the wake of Hoosier Republicans’ move on Thursday, they don’t seem eager to change their minds.

Maryland has been a mirror image of Indiana: One Democratic leader is rebuffing entreaties from top Democrats to eliminate the state’s lone remaining GOP seat.

Maryland Democratic Senate President Bill Ferguson has exchanged phone calls with Indiana Senate Republican leader Rodric Bray, four people familiar with the two leaders, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, tell Blue Light News. Each has resisted pressure from top officials in their party to move on redistricting. Bray’s success could now lessen the pressure on Ferguson. Bray’s spokesperson, Molly Swigart, said no deal was ever made between Bray and Ferguson on redistricting in their respective states.

And in Virginia, where Democrats gained 13 seats in their House of Delegates in November’s statewide elections, they’re poised to make drastic changes to their congressional maps that could net the party upwards of four seats. But that stance seems at odds with the views of Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, who sounded reluctant to the idea of making wholesale changes to congressional lines at a Blue Light News event earlier this week.

There are also headwinds elsewhere for Trump and his allies: Kansas and Kentucky Republicans have so far failed to move forward with their redistricting pushes that are complicated by opposition from Democratic governors; Ohio Republicans struck a compromise with Democrats for a less aggressive gerrymander than what some national leaders wanted; a judge picked a map in Utah that drew a safe Democratic seat; and Republicans are facing a potential setback for Missouri.

That doesn’t mean the redistricting wars are over. Lawmakers in a number of other states are still weighing their own maps, with GOP-led Florida and Democratic-controlled Virginia remaining the biggest question marks on the board. Republicans are still eying Kentucky and Nebraska as well.

“We’ve got a lot more states that we can do work on,” one person close to the White House granted anonymity to speak candidly on a sensitive matter told Blue Light News Friday, while admitting that “Indiana was definitely frustrating.”

And if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling further gutting the Voting Rights Act in the coming months, a number of states are expected to rush to redraw their lines before their states’ filing deadlines, in a move that could give the GOP a huge boost and potentially put the House out of reach for Democrats.

“The truth is, I think we’re still, we’re in the middle of this redistricting war,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “We’re all waiting to hear back from the Supreme Court as to what they’re going to do and how they’re going to move forward.”

Here’s what to expect in the coming weeks from states including Maryland, Florida, Illinois and a challenge to the already-passed maps passed in Missouri.

Maryland

Perhaps lawmakers breathing the biggest sigh of relief from Indiana bucking Trump’s redistricting push are those in Maryland.

Ferguson has for months been facing pressure from Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and national Democrats to wade into the redistricting fight. That lobbying campaign to net Maryland Democrats an additional seat would have been kicked into hyperdrive if Indiana had drawn new maps.

Reports of Ferguson possibly losing his grip on leading the Senate Democrats evaporated this week after he was unanimously renominated as Senate leader. Then on Thursday, just hours before the Indiana Senate cast the vote dooming the redistricting effort, Ferguson put out a statement with Democratic House Delegates Speaker Pro Tem Dana Stein declaring that lawmakers in the special session Moore called for next week will definitively not take up any new maps.

While that likely closes the door on the redistricting push for this year, Moore still has an opportunity to reignite a pressure campaign aimed at Ferguson to hold a vote on the issue in January, when the legislature returns for regular session. The governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission is meeting Friday for its final public hearing to solicit comments from Maryland residents before its members make a recommendation to the governor and the General Assembly on whether to redraw maps.

Illinois

For months, Illinois Democrats have suggested they were unlikely to try to squeeze another seat out of their already-gerrymandered state unless Indiana Republicans redrew their seats.

And while state Democratic leaders didn’t completely rule out redistricting in the wake of the Indiana GOP’s vote, they don’t sound particularly eager for a new map.

“Our neighbors in Indiana have stood up to Trump’s threats and political pressure, instead choosing to do what’s right for their constituents and our democracy,” Gov. JB Pritzker said in a statement after the result, without saying what Illinois might do.

A person in Pritzker’s office, granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, said the governor was less than equivocal in his statement because no one knows what Trump’s next move might be.

State House and Senate Democratic leaders struck similar tones, praising their Hoosier neighbors while pledging to stay vigilant against similar efforts in other states.

Virginia

Democrats’ best remaining chance for a multi-seat gerrymander is Old Dominion. But while statehouse leaders seem eager to push forward with a complicated plan for a voter referendum to approve a new gerrymander — much like California’s move — the state’s incoming Democratic governor doesn’t seem quite as eager to lend a hand.

The Democratic-dominated Virginia legislature is expected to easily pass a procedural measure before putting the issue of redistricting before voters to approve a constitutional Virginia amendment to redraw the state’s maps ahead of the midterms — a move that legislative leaders have teased could lead to a 10-1 map.

“I feel comfortable that we have an opportunity to do a number of maps here in Virginia to allow for us to level the playing field,” Virginia House Speaker Don Scott said at a Blue Light News event this week.

But at the same event, Spanberger hedged when asked if she supported redrawing maps to achieve the feat.

“The calendar is tight, and for me, I want to win,” Spanberger said, pointing to Virginia’s first and second congressional districts that are currently held by Republicans. “I want to flip seats in the House of Representatives and I know that we can because I just won those districts.”

But when asked directly if redistricting is the way to go, Spanberger said Virginia should “leave open the option” of new maps, but ultimately voters will decide if the legislature should move forward.

Florida

Florida Republicans could deliver their party three to five more seats if they press ahead with mid-decade redistricting. But two factors complicate that effort.

First, GOP leaders aren’t on the same page. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has been touting the need to draw new maps since last summer, has suggested waiting until the spring of next year in case the U.S. Supreme Court weakens the VRA and bars the consideration of race when drawing lines, a position backed by the state’s GOP Senate president, Ben Albritton.

But state GOP House Speaker Daniel Perez said this week it is “irresponsible” to wait and that the House is prepared to send a map to the Senate during its regular session that starts next month.

Second, GOP leaders may be constrained by Florida’s voter-approved constitutional ban on redistricting for partisan gain. Democrats have already asserted that drawing up any new map is “illegal’ and would violate these standards signaling that litigation is likely if state legislators pass a new map. But Florida’s conservative-dominated state Supreme Court already ruled in 2022 that legislators can sidestep minority protections when it allowed a previous GOP-drawn map that was muscled into law by DeSantis, weakening its impact.Perez insisted that he has not been under pressure from Trump or the White House to move ahead on redistricting. When asked on Friday if there was added pressure on the House to act due to the outcome in Indiana he said: “No sir.”

Missouri

Missouri Republicans already passed a map to flip Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Mo.) district red, but Democrats are hoping to undo the GOP-passed map in Missouri via ballot measure. Earlier this week, they submitted more than double the 107,000 signatures required to force a statewide vote for the secretary of state.

If the signatures are validated, the map may not cannot go into effect in time for the midterms, and if voters approve the ballot measure, the map gets tossed. Republicans still have a bit of time, since GOP Secretary of State Denny Hoskins doesn’t have to approve the signatures until July. Plus, it’s unclear when the Republican-controlled Legislature will actually put those signatures up for a vote.

The timing is causing a bit of chaos. Since candidates need to file by the end of March, prospective members of Congress may have to file in districts that aren’t set for the midterms.

Adam Wren, Andrew Howard, Shia Kapos, Alex Gangitano and Gary Fineout contributed to this story.

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Trump endorses John E. Sununu in New Hampshire Senate race over Scott Brown

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President Donald Trump on Sunday endorsed former Sen. John E. Sununu in New Hampshire’s open Senate race, boosting a longtime critic over one of his former ambassadors, Scott Brown.

Trump hailed Sununu, who Republicans see as their best chance to flip the blue Senate seat, as an “America First Patriot” in a Truth Social post Sunday afternoon. And Trump said Sununu will “work tirelessly to advance our America First Agenda.”

“John E. Sununu has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN — ELECT JOHN E. SUNUNU,” he posted.

Sununu, a moderate who has opposed Trump across his presidential runs, thanked him in a statement and quickly pivoted to talking about his priorities for New Hampshire.

“I want to thank the President for his support and thank the thousands of Granite Staters who are supporting me,” Sununu said. “This campaign has and always will be about standing up for New Hampshire — every single day.”

Trump’s endorsement further tips the scales in an already pitched GOP primary between Sununu and Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate before moving to New Hampshire and running unsuccessfully for Senate there in 2014. He served as Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa in his first term, and has been presenting himself as the more Trump-aligned candidate as he courts the MAGA base.

Brown vowed to fight on. And he took a veiled shot at Sununu, accusing him of not being sufficiently dedicated to the MAGA movement.

“I am running to ensure our America First agenda is led by someone who views this mission not as a career path, but as a continuation of a lifelong commitment to service,” Brown said in a post on X. “Let’s keep working.”

The two are competing to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Pappas issued a simple response to Trump’s endorsement of Sununu: “I’m Chris Pappas, and I approve this message,” he wrote on X. His campaign manager, Rachel Pretti, said in a statement that Trump’s endorsement “confirms” that Sununu “will sell out Granite Staters to advance his political career.”

Trump’s support for Sununu once would have seemed unfathomable. The scion of a moderate New Hampshire Republican dynasty, Sununu served as a national co-chair of former Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s 2016 presidential campaign and joined his family in backing former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president against Trump in the 2024 GOP primary.

Ahead of New Hampshire’s 2024 presidential primary, Sununu penned an op-ed lambasting Trump as a “loser.” (Trump went on to win by 11 points). And he later derided Trump’s 2020 election conspiracies as “completely inappropriate.”

Republicans initially were bullish about flipping an open seat in purple New Hampshire that’s already changed hands between parties twice this century — Sununu defeated Shaheen to win the seat in 2002, then lost it to her in 2008 — and coalesced quickly behind the moderate Republican as their best option against Pappas. Sununu received instant backing from the GOP’s Senate campaign arm upon his launch last October and has wracked up endorsements from the majority of Republican senators. He’s also won support from Republican leaders in New Hampshire — all of which Trump noted in his Truth Social post Sunday.

Trump also initially supported Sununu’s younger brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu, running for the Senate seat. Chris Sununu, also a vocal Trump critic, declined to launch a bid, prompting GOP interest in his brother.

But some in Trump’s Granite State MAGA base quickly rejected his endorsement of Sununu, calling it a “slap in the face to grassroots supporters” long loyal to the president.

“The Sununu family openly mocked, degraded, and worked against the America First movement, the President himself, and the policies that energized New Hampshire voters,” a group of MAGA activists wrote on X. “We will continue and intensify our campaign opposition to the Sununu operation.”

Sununu holds a wide lead over Brown in polling of the GOP primary. The latest, a University of New Hampshire online survey of likely primary voters from mid-January, showed Sununu up 48 percent to 25 percent with 26 percent of likely voters undecided. But Pappas is ahead of both Republicans in hypothetical general-election matchups, leading Sununu by 5 percentage points and Brown by 10 percentage points in the UNH poll. The survey of 967 likely GOP primary voters had a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.

Pappas also outraised both Republicans, bringing in $2.3 million last quarter and amassing a $3.2 million war chest heading into the year. Sununu hauled in $1.3 million and had $1.1 million in cash on hand in his primary campaign account while Brown raised $347,000 through his main account and had $907,000 in the bank.

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Trump questions if GOP can overcome voters’ ‘psychological’ midterms hurdle

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Trump questions if GOP can overcome voters’ ‘psychological’ midterms hurdle

President Trump is warning of a possible Democratic victory in November’s midterm elections, seemingly lowering expectations for Republican wins well ahead of any voters heading to the ballot box. Trump regularly notes that the party in control of the White House historically tends to lose the midterms…
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Caught between ICE enforcement and fraud allegations, child care industry gasps for air

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Caught between ICE enforcement and fraud allegations, child care industry gasps for air

The child care industry is struggling to convince parents that its facilities are safe. Providers are in a tough spot after months of immigration operations that have included parents taken in by authorities while dropping off or picking up their kids — as well as fraud allegations that have led to harassment at facilities around the country…
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